Tom Freese
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Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
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Cleveland starter Jeamar Gomez has allowed 5 runs total in his first 3 starts winning all 3 games. The Indians are 28-11 their last 39 home games vs. the Orioles. The Indians are 4-1 after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. Baltimore starter Kevin Millwood has lost his last 5 starts. The Orioles are 17-50 their last 67 road games and they are 1-10 in the last 11 road starts made by Millwood. The Birds are 21-59 their last 80 road games vs. righty starters.
THE PREZ
Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -4
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Across the board, from the Vegas strip to offshore portals, the Baltimore Ravens opened as 3 point favorites with an over-under of 34. As the week has progressed the deeper and more talented Ravens have climbed to four point chalk with the total holding serve.
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While Baltimore is riddled with injuries, especially in the defensive backfield, they are still the deeper and more experienced team. Offensively the Ravens will be without tackle Jared Gaither; and on the stop side of the ball cornerbacks Fabian Washington and Chris Carr are questionable. Free safety Ed Reed (PUP) will not dress and ballyhooed rookie linebacker Sergio Kindle (head) is out.
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Depth is key when evaluating preseason contests and quarterback rotations, experience among such, is critical. The Ravens quarterback rotation will see Joe Flacco, Marc Bulger, Troy Smith, and John Beck taking snaps. As well, Baltimore has depth at both running back and at receiver. Mark Clayton, Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth and Derrick Mason will all see action while Ray Rice and Willis McGahee will eventually give way to Le’Ron McClain and Jalen Parmele; all extremely capable and skilled.
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The Panthers said goodbye to QB Jake Delhomme, who now plays for the Browns, and defensive end Julius Peppers is rushing the quarterback in the "Black and Blue" division with the Bears. Inexperience is the backdrop in Carolina with QBs Matt Moore, Jimmy Clausen, Hunter Cantwell and Tony Pike seeing playing time. Fox and company will focus on execution offensively, so expect to see more handoffs than deep routes. RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will garner the majority of the first half carries with Tyrell Sutton, Dantrell Savage, and Josh Vaughan receiving second half touches.
The offense will be without All World wideout Steve Smith. After Smith the Panthers have little to offer Moore, Cantwell and rookies Clausen and Pike from the receiver position.
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Panthers head coach Fox has never focused on winning the X games and the Ravens depth and experience will eventually win out.
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Baltimore is 7-0 ATS when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1993 and with a glaring skill set differential between the two teams tonight expect the Ravens to outgain Fox's troupe by more than 100 yards.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Colorado +1.42 over NY METS
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Jason Hammel has been an undervalued pitcher all season long and remains undervalued here. Johan Santana remains an overvalued pitcher and thus, the result is a rather big overlay. Hammel is making his April struggles a distant memory. He posted an elite 122 BPV in July but a 4.46 ERA in July did not reflect this skill spike, in part due to a slightly elevated 33% hit rate and low 63% strand rate. And remember Hammel's strong run after July 1 last season? Well, he was near unhittable. Hammel has pitched three of his last five in Cincinnati, Philadelphia and at Wrigley on a day when the wind was blowing out. Those are three of the friendliest hitter's parks in the majors. His strikeout/walk ratio is soaring, he’s an elite groundball pitcher and he should thrive at this venue. Meanwhile Johan Santana’s nagging incident with the alleged rape is back in the news. With that fresh on his mind, Santana and his declining skills will take the mound. Santana is coming off a beauty against the Phillies but prior to that he was rocked in back-to-back starts against the Braves and Cards. Santana has one of the lowest GB rates in the majors at 32% and while this park masks many of his deficiencies, they still get exposed often. Fact is, Santana is a lucky pitcher and his numbers could be in for a big correction in the final seven weeks. Play: Colorado +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
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Florida –1.05 over WASHINGTON
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Ricky Nolasco is another one of those undervalued pitchers. His surface stats are average but when you look under the surface, it’s a different story. He’s done much better in his five second-half starts and with you combine that with his impeccable control (28BB/130 K’s), it’s clear why his xERA is so low. Nolasco’s ERA in 2009 and the first half of 2010 weren’t great, but that was due to various factors that included a very low strand percentage and a high HR/9 ratio. It’s encouraging to see that three of the second-half strong outings were on the road. This guy can pitch and could be in for a big final seven or eight starts. Furthermore, the Marlins have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. They scored eight the first night and nine last night and will face a guy that’s somehow discovered the fountain of youth. Everyone has been waiting all year for Livan Hernandez to blow up but it hasn’t happened yet. Despite strong start after strong start, this guy is not trustworthy because of xERA’s way higher than his actual ERA. In fact when you break it down by month we have the following:
Month ERA xERA
===== ==== ====
April 0.87 4.79
May 3.25 4.80
June 5.12 5.25
July 4.02 5.44
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The above sample shows why metric’s matter. You’ll notice an increase in xERA every month. Look for Hernandez to revert to his previously established level - the one well below mediocrity. Play: Florida –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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Baltimore +1.32 over CLEVELAND
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Buck Showalter could run for mayor of Baltimore right now and win by a landslide. The O’s are 8-1 since he took over and there’s not a crystal ball in the world that could’ve predicted that. Showalter has put the Orioles in a completely different mindset and it’s working big time. Now the O’s are taking back +1.32 against a minor-leaguer with two good starts in the majors but don’t expect that to last. Jeanmar Gomez was called up to make a spot start and was supposed to be sent right back down. This guy had a rough go of it this year at the minor-league level, with a 5.68 ERA in 18 games started. Signed in 2005 as a non-drafted FA out of Venezuela, Gomez doesn't possess dominating stuff. He isn't a strike out pitcher, but attempts to induce weak contact by spotting his fastball to both sides of the plate. For his five-year minor league career he has a 4.30 ERA and at Columbus this year he allowed 116 hits in 101 IP and that includes 15 jacks. Gomez is a #5 starter at best and his charmed life in the majors is going to come crashing down real soon. Carlos Santana’s absence (out for the season after knee surgery) isn’t helping an erratic Cleveland offensive attack and Kevin Millwood is experienced enough to take full advantage. Imagine Millwood’s reaction this morning when browsing the Internet and seeing a 5-year minor-leaguer favored over him. If that doesn’t motivate him, nothing will. This line is out of whack. Play: Baltimore +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +116
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The Dodgers are just 11-27 in their last 38 meetings in Philadelphia. They have lost 6 of their last 7 road games and four of Kershaw's last 5 starts. Plus, Kershaw has had no luck against the Phillies. He's 0-4 lifetime when starting against Philly with an ERA of 7.20. The Phillies are 15-4 in their last 19 overall, 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series and 5-0 in Blanton's last 5 home starts. Plus, Blanton is 3-1 on the money line in his last 4 starts against the Dodgers. Take the Phillies showing solid value in the home dog role tonight.
Lenny Del Genio
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Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
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The O's are playing like a different team under new manager Showalter. They have won eight of the nine games since he's taken over. Here in Cleveland the Indians are struggling having lost four in a row. Last night they were able to get only two hits against Bergesen. Tonight the Indians should have much better results against Baltimore starter Millwood. The old veteran should retire as he can't get anybody out anymore. He has an awful 5.84 ERA and 1.611 WHIP on the season and on the road this year has a 1-11 team start record. For Cleveland they turn the ball over to Gomez who's been a bright star for the Tribe. He?s started three games this season and he's posted a 1.56 ERA and 1.096 WHIP against quality teams like Toronto, Minnesota and Detroit. Look for Gomez and the Indians to snap Baltimore's four game winning streak tonight. Play on Cleveland.
SPORTS WAGERS
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SASKATCHEWAN –8 over B.C. Lions
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It’s difficult to pull the trigger on the Lions these days as they remain in complete turmoil. We’re not even sure who the starting QB will be tonight because Travis Lulay hasn’t been able to get the job done and Casey Printers is not fully recovered. That leaves Jarious Jackson and the reports are he could get the nod. But with the Leos offensive line issues, does it really matter? The Lions are 1-5 and chances are they’re heading for a 1-8, starting with these Riders, with Montreal and Calgary to follow. While the Lions have been close in four straight losses, the biggest margin of defeat being by five points, losing takes its toll. A deflated team could arrive here to face a Saskatchewan team that defeated them by 19 in an earlier meeting in B.C. Now the venue switches to the most difficult venue in the league for opposing teams. The Riders are coming off a tough loss to the Als and have lost two of its last three so taking these Lions lightly is not an option. They had a strong second half last week and that’s likely to carry over here. The Riders are as explosive as any team in the league and this is a likely candidate for the Green team to flex its muscles against. For a Lions defense that’s decent but has been on the field way too often, it’s hard to envision them containing the Riders and it’s even harder to envision the Lions offense keeping pace. Play: Saskatchewan –8 (No bets).
Doug Upstone
Orioles vs. Indians
Play: Under 9½
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The Baltimore Orioles are bashing everyone in the AL on their 8-1 run under new manager Buck Showalter. The O’s are winning by 1.6 runs per game thanks to great pitching, since they’ve allowed four or less runs in seven of last nine contests. They go for the sweep against light-hitting Cleveland, who is 12th in runs scored in the AL (Orioles are 13th by the way), but will have to face another quality young pitcher in Jeanmar Gomez (2-0, 1.56 ERA, 1.096 WHIP).
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Today, look to play UNDER when the total is 9 or 9.5 and the home team has AL batting average below .265, against a team with a mediocre bullpen (ERA of 4.50 or higher), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season. Since 2006, this total system is 21-2 and 3-0 in 2010.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on San Diego Padres -1.5 +115
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The Padres are 5-0 against the Pirates this season, and a perfect 8-0 dating back to last season. San Diego's last 7 wins over the Pirates have all been by 2 or more runs. With this in mind, the run line is showing solid value tonight. The Padres also have the edge on the mound with Garland, who is 6-2 with an ERA of only 2.57 at home this season. Compare that to Duke, who is just 3-5 with an ERA of 6.50 on the road. In addition, San Diego is 11-1 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 6.4 to 2.8. Plus, Pittsburgh is 1-15 after 3 straight games with no home runs this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 2.9 to 7.8. Take the Padres on the run line.
Nelly
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Florida + over Washington
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The Marlins are 7-2 in the last nine starts from Ricky Nolasco and while he struggled in his last outing he has excellent season numbers away from home with a 3.86 ERA and an 8-2 record. The Marlins have won three straight games while going 35-16 in the last 51 meetings between these teams. Washington has dropped four straight games and seven of the last ten while hitting only .231 in that span. Livan Hernandez has allowed just 12 runs in his last six starts but Washington is 2-4 in those games. Look for Florida to come up big tonight with a series sweep.
Bobby Maxwell
I've got your FREE winner tonight coming in on the Nationals as they are hosting the Marlins in Washington.
The Nationals have dropped the first two games of this series with the Marlins, but I’m banking on veteran right-hander Livan Hernandez (8-7, 3.03 ERA) to get it done for them today and get Washington the victory.
Hernandez has a 2.77 ERA at home and his ERA over his last three outings is 2.41. In his last start on Saturday, he was in Los Angeles and held the Dodgers to one earned run in seven innings but his offense failed him in the 3-2 loss. He’s held the opponents to three runs or less in seven of his last 10 starts and he’s dominated the Marlins in two starts this season.
In his two outings against Florida, Hernandez has allowed two earned runs in 13 innings, including a 3-2 home win in May.
The Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco has a 5.03 ERA in his last three starts and just got beat up by the Cardinals on Friday, giving up seven runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 7-0 loss in St. Louis. Washington has beaten him up twice already this season, in two starts getting nine runs off him in 9.1 innings of work, beating Florida 7-1 and 4-0.
Washington is 16-5 when Hernandez faces a losing team and they are 8-2 when he pitches at home, and 10-1 when he starts at home against a losing team. Florida is just 2-5 against right-handed starters and 2-7 when Nolasco starts on Thursday.
The Nationals aren’t getting swept in this series. Hernandez will pitch them to a win tonight.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Karl Garrett
G-Man gave you another free play winner last night on Boston.
For Thursday night, go with Florida to complete the 3 game sweep over a Washington team that has dropped their last 4, and 6 of 8 overall.
The Marlins have their hitting shoes on in this series, as they have scored 17 runs in winning the first two games, and while Livan Hernandez has been stingy this season with a 3.03 ERA, Hernandez is 0-2 in his last 4 starts against his former club.
Ricky Nolasco has struggled at home this season to a tune of 4-6 with a 5.46 ERA, but on the road he is a positive 8-2 with a 3.86 ERA.
The Marlins are 7-4 in the season series this year against the Nationals, and they are also 15-7 the last 22 times the teams have played in Washington.
Have to believe the Marlins move above the .500 mark for the year with the won tonight.
4♦ FLORIDA
BRETT ATKINS
Tonight's free winner is coming to you on the Twins as they are in Chicago to take on the White Sox for the rubber match of this three-game set.
Minnesota and Chicago are deadlocked in the A.L. Central and have split the first two games of this series in the Windy City.
I’m looking for the Twins to get the rubber match today behind the left arm or Francisco Liriano who has already beaten the White Sox twice this year, allowing just five runs in 13.2 innings of wins both at home and on the road. His ERA in his last three overall is 1.93 and the guy had four straight outings of seven innings of shutout work.
Gavin Floyd has lost three of his last four against Minnesota, including back on July 16 when he gave up four runs in five innings of a 7-4 loss. The White Sox are on skids of 2-8 when Floyd faces A.L. Central teams and 3-10 when he pitches the third game of a series.
Minnesota has won seven on its last nine games in Chicago and 18 of its last 24 overall against the White Sox. Play the Twins in this one!
2♦ MINNESOTA
JOEL TYSON
Tonight I turn my attention to the NFL, and will go with the Ravens to cover the number at home against the Panthers.
John Fox is not exactly a "preseason maven", as his team is just 3-10 against the spread their last 13 practice games, and with a quarterback rotation of Matt Moore, Hunter Caldwell, and Jimmy Claussen, the thin Baltimore defense does not figure to be too tested in this exhibition.
Baltimore has Joe Flacco, Marc Bulger, and Troy Smith to lead the way, and each of those three have seen significant playing time in this league, and are much more likely to find the end zone with their dirves.
Baltimore opens the season with the comfortable touchdown win over Carolina.
2♦ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Jack Jones
Florida Marlins -107
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The Marlins have owned the Nationals throughout the years, and that has not changed this season. Over the last 3 seasons, Florida is 33-13 in 46 meetings with Washington. They have won 15 of 22 road meetings during that span as well. I look for the Marlins to sweep this series tonight after taking the first two games 8-2 and 9-5, respectively. The Marlins have played their best baseball away from home, posting a 29-27 road record this season.
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Starter Ricky Nolasco has pitched his best on the road this year, going 9-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 13 road starts in 2010. The Marlins are 10-3 in Nolasco's 13 road starts this season. Nolasco is 8-1 against the money line in road games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. Ricky is a perfect 9-0 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Marlins Thursday.
Info Plays
3* on Kansas City Royals +221
Reasons the Royals win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams (KANSAS CITY) - good fielding team - turning 1.1 or more DP's/game on the season, after a combined score of 4 runs or less 2 straight games. This is a 42-13 ML System hitting 76.4% since 1997. This system is a perfect 4-0 this season.
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2.) The Yankees are coming off an emotional come-from-behind victory over Texas last night. This is the ideal letdown spot for them as they travel to Kansas City for Game 1. Bet the Royals at home.