Sean Murphy
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
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We have to lay some significant chalk to back the Padres today, but the reality is, they probably should be priced about 20-30 cents higher.
We're able to back San Diego at -200 or better thanks to the fact that most still don't consider them to be an elite team. I don't think there's any question, they've reached that level, currently 20 games over .500 on the season, including 35-22 at home.
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The Pirates are at the opposite end of the spectrum. They're once again mired in another losing streak, and currently sit 35 games under .500 and a miserable 13-44 away from home.
San Diego has absolutely owned Pittsburgh this season, going a perfect 5-0, outscoring the Buccos by a combined 32-14 margin.
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Zach Duke will take the hill for the Pirates in the series finale. He's been one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball in recent years, and that certainly hasn't changed here in 2010. Duke has allowed 142 hits in 108 1/3 innings of work this season, and has been at his absolute worst on the road, where he's posted a 6.50 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.
Duke actually pitched the Pirates to a 10-1 victory here in San Diego last season, but his numbers against the current Padres roster indicate he could be in for a beating on Thursday. They're hitting a collective .298 and slugging .464 against him. The additions of Ludwick and Tejada should help, as they've combined to go 10-for-31 off of Duke.
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Jon Garland gets the nod for the hometown Padres. He's been up and down lately, but does bring solid form to the table after holding the D'Backs to just three hits and one earned run over seven innings last time out.
Garland has been extremely consistent at home this season, going 6-2 with a 2.69 ERA while holding opponents to a .221 batting average. In two August starts he's held the opposition to a .178 average while recording 10 strikeouts in 13 innings pitched.
The current Pirates roster is hitting just .227 and slugging .295 in 44 career at-bats against Garland. They have just three extra-base hits off of him.
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This is a mismatch no matter how you look at it. San Diego once again finds itself building a winning streak, having not lost a game since Saturday. They'll get it done again on Thursday. Take San Diego.
BIG AL
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Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
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If nothing else this season, Kevin Millwood can say that he finally got the first inning monkey off his back in his last start. Millwood had an unusual and destructive streak going where he kept giving up runs in the first inning, but in his last start against the White Sox at home, Millwood pitched around a leadoff walk and got out of the first with a goose-egg on the scoreboard. It was only the second time in his last 13 starts that Millwood had been able to accomplish this. Ok, so Millwood got a no-decision and the O's lost the game, but the veteran righthander pitched very well and had his first quality outing since way back on June 19 in pitcher-friendly San Diego. The Chicago outing was one of his best of the season, and he's certainly hoping it's a sign of things to come the rest of the way. Perhaps some of the "Showalter Magic" is rubbing off on Millwood because the new Orioles Skipper has taken over the worst team in baseball (in terms of records anyway) and proceeded to go 8-1 in his first nine games at the helm. Tonight would seem to be a great opportunity to extend the streak against a bad Cleveland team and a 22-year-old righthanded starter with one of the weirdest first names in sports (Jeanmar Gomez). Don't be fooled by Gomez's impressive numbers in his few MLB appearances so far as the rookie's numbers at AAA prior to his call-up indicate that he is nothing special. Take the Orioles.
DWAYNE BRYANT
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BREWERS -149
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Sometimes the line tells the story. That appears to be the case in this one. This line is pretty high considering how these two teams have been playing lately. Not to mention that 'Zona has already taken the first three games in this series. But Corey Hart is back in the lineup and Ryan Braun is expected back today as well. That should mean some good production from the Milwaukee lineup against a very mediocre Lopez and a potentially awful 'Zona bullpen. Based on this line, I feel a SMALL action wager is in order on Milwaukee this afternoon.
Dan Bebe
WAS (+100) vs FLA
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Livan Hernandez has pitched very well against Florida, and is coming off a series of strong outings, so he continues to roll. His junkball style is difficult for Florida's impatient bats to deal with.
Ricky Nolasco has been hit HARD by the Nats, this year. He was surging in July, but tailed off a bit in his last start, and hasn't looked at all comfortable against Washington in 2010. I think he has one more subpar outing in him before he goes back to pitching better.
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Washington would love to salvage something in this series, and despite hitting the ball hard last night, Scott Olsen was too awful to overcome.
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The Marlins look awfully good to the betting public after beating Strasburg in the opener, and winning another last night with big-time offense. They run into a tough competitor, here.
Black Widow
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1* on Los Angeles Dodgers -122
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We'll take the Dodgers with a big edge on the mound tonight in Clayton Kershaw over Joe Blanton. Plus, L.A. cannot be happy about getting shut out last night and the bats should come out to play tonight because of it. Kershaw is having another stellar season, going 10-7 with a 3.20 ERA. He has registered 153 strikeouts in 143.2 innings of work this year. Blanton has blown up, going 4-6 with a 5.65 ERA this year. This is a Phillies team that is playing without Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino, arguably their three best players. The Phillies are 0-5 in Blanton's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Dodgers put up 15 runs in Game 1 of this series, and we look for them to put up another big numbers on the Phillies in this one. Take Los Angeles on the Money Line.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on New York Yankees -1.5 -145
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Kansas City finds itself extremely over matched after trading away all of its power. The Royals return home after a lengthy road trip, but they are just 1-12 after 7 or more consecutive road games this season, losing in this spot by an average score of 3.1 to 6.1. Look for Sabathia to hold the Royals in check while the Yankee bats have their way with Chen.
John Ryan
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New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
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5* graded play on Kansas City as they take on the Yankees set to start at 8:05 EST Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a reasonable probability that KC will get the big upset winner and we are getting paid back better than 2/1 odds currently. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-13 for 76% winners since 1997. Play on home teams that are good fielding teams turning 1.1 or more double plays per game on the season and after a combined score of 4 runs or less 2 straight games. KC is in an excellent spot here noting they are 15-5 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in home games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. KC is one of the most vastly under rated hitting teams in the majors and now their bullpen has improved greatly. The bullpen has posted a 1.42 ERA with a 1.500 WHIP over the past seven games. Sabathia is not pitching nearly as well now as he was just a few weeks ago. Up to the All-Star break Sabathia had given up 108 hits in 15 starts. In just 5 starts since the all-star break he has already allowed nearly half that amount with 48 hits. His velocity was down the past two starts and perhaps fatigue is starting to hit him. No matter the reason we feel he is going to struggle early against the Royals and that may be all the Royals need to get ahead and stay ahead. Take the Royals.
ROCCO VINCINTORE
Joe Blanton (4-6, 5.65 ERA) will take the hill for the Phillies, chances are the scoreboard operator may be busy again.
The 29-year-old Tennessee native has allowed at least three runs in all but two of his 18 starts this season. One of those quality outings came in his last start, as he surrendered just two runs and seven hits in seven innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets on Friday.
The right-hander owns a 1-0 mark with a 2.88 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers.
The Phillies hope he can continue his success against Los Angeles, while they look to maintain their dominance against Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw (10-7). The 22-year-old left-hander has struggled mightily against Philadelphia, owning an 0-4 career mark with a 7.83 ERA in seven career games – including outings in both the 2008 and 2009 National League Championship Series.
Kershaw is also trying to snap a modest two-game losing skid. He was tagged for six runs and seven hits in six innings in Friday's 6-3 loss to the Washington Nationals.
The Dodgers are 1-5 in Kershaws last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record, Phillies are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record and the Phillies are 5-0 in Blantons last 5 home starts.
The WRONG TEAM is favored here take PHILADELPHIA plus the small number!!!
Rocketman
Oakland @ Dallas
Play: Oakland +3.5
Dallas is coming off a win in the Hall of Fame game against the Cincinnati Bengals 16-7. Dallas starters should not see much playing time again here tonight. Oakland will be looking to put forth a good effort in this one. I like their quarterback rotation with JaMarcus Russel now out of the picture. Jason Campbell appears to be the starter and has lot of experience while playing with the Redskins. We should also see Bruce Gradkowski, Kyle Boller and Charlie Frye. The Raiders also just signed Colt Brennan as well. Oakland has won 17 of 26 preseason meetings with the Cowboys. My Rocketman line has Oakland favored by 9 points in this game giving us a huge advantage. We'll recommend a small play on Oakland tonight!
OffshoreInsiders
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1.5)
The Saints starters can’t be expected to play long, especially on offense. With so much continuity from last year—every key starter but left tackle Jamaal Williams remains in place—New Orleans won’t need too much brushing up in Game 1 of the preseason.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have a lot of fine-tuning to do. Receivers must be prepped in case Wes Welker can’t get the job done after offseason knee surgery, and the line is in shambles thanks to injuries and contract squabbles. Both New England and New Orleans are undergoing some defensive changes.
New England needs a great preseason more than the Saints—with so many holes to fill, the Pats will be pressing to find replacements. Take New England to cover.
Pick: New England
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
The Ravens are pretty deep on both sides of the ball, meaning when the starters come out they should still have a pretty dangerous squad. Offensively, Marc Bulger will line up under center and work with Donte Stallworth, Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain. The defense has some weak links in the secondary, however. After some recent injuries, it’s ripe for the picking—especially when some of the second and third units get onto the field.
Can Carolina take advantage, though? Probably, yes. Once Matt Moore checks out of the game, back-up Jimmy Clausen will probably see extended action. Clausen, the quarterback of the future, is extremely talented and has looked increasingly comfortable at Panthers camp. He’ll also have some pretty good options to lean on in the running game, like back-ups Mike Goodson and Tyrell Sutton.
Those who listen to sports betting podcasts will note that Carolina’s defense is thin thanks to injuries and free agency, but Clausen should be able to take advantage of a battered Ravens secondary despite his rookie status. The Panthers will pull it out.
Pick: Carolina