DAVE COKIN
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ARIZONA CARDINALS / PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Take ARIZONA CARDINALS
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The Cardinals and Steelers staged a great battle in last season's Super Bowl. I'll take a shot and say tonight's game won't be quite as exciting. The pre-season trends actually give the edge to the Steelers, as Mike Tomlin seems to like winning even when it doesn't matter. But even in a meaningless exhibition game, I have to think the Cardinals would like to wash some of the taste of that demoralizing Super Bowl defeat out of their systems, so I'll lean Arizona's way tonight.
Michael Cannon
New England at PHILADELPHIA -3
Take the Eagles as the home chalk over the Patriots tonight in the preseason opener for both teams.
Philadelphia coach Andy Reid stated that Donovan McNabb and his starters will play 1½ quarters tonight. That right there gives the Eagles the advantage because I don’t expect New England coach Bill Belichick to play his starters much.
After McNabb departs the Eagles still have veteran A. J. Feeley, who will probably finish the game since second-stringer Kevin Kolb is injured and won’t play tonight.
That gives the Eagles another significant advantage as the Patriots only have Kevin O’Connell, Brian Hoyer and Andrew Walter backing up Tom Brady, who probably won’t see much action tonight.
Take the Eagles as they grab the home win and cover.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Jeff Benton
Arizona at PITTSBURGH -3
For Thursday, I’ll issue my first play of the NFL preseason, backing the Steelers minus the points against the Cardinals.
First off, don’t put any credence into the fact that this is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl – it means absolutely nothing. It’s not like the Cardinals are going to try to win this game to get some measure of revenge for the tough way in which they lost to Pittsburgh in February. No, this is like any other preseason contest, which is to say the outcome is meaningless to both teams.
So why back the Steelers? Well, for starters, they’ve won their first preseason game each of the last two years since coach Mike Tomlin took over (going 2-0 ATS), and they’ve won seven of nine preseason contests under Tomlin. On the flip side, since leaving Pittsburgh as the offensive coordinator and taking over the head job in Arizona, Ken Whisenhunt is 2-6 SU and ATS in August, including losing in Week 1 both years.
But here’s the real reason I like Pittsburgh: The team hasn’t gone through any radical coaching or personnel changes since Tomlin took over – this is the third year in his system, and the players have to be very comfortably by now. On the other hand, Arizona changed offensive and defensive coordinators from last year, and it’s going to take time for the players to get comfortable in the new systems and understand the nuances.
Besides, I don’t know about you, but the prospect of Matt Leinart and Brian St. Pierre – who will see the bulk of the time at QB tonight for the Cardinals – at the controls of a new offense with no Fitzgerald or Boldin as a security blanket is not something I’m willing to bet on. And the fact that those two QBs will be facing a physical, experienced Steelers defense that is deep in terms of talent, well, that’s a recipe for disaster for Arizona. Lay the chalk with the defending champs.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Bobby Maxwell
Detroit at BOSTON
Made it three straight FREE winners with Wednesday's winner on the Padres as they got it done in Milwaukee. Today's comp winner is the Red Sox as they host the Tigers in the finale of this four-game series.
The Red Sox have taken the first three games of this series and five straight over the Tigers this season and I don't see any reason to go against that trend today. In fact, Boston has won 10 of the last 11 against Detroit going back to last season and the Sox are 22-6 in the last 28 meetings in Fenway Park and 38-15 in the last 52 meetings with Detroit overall. This series has been one-sided for a while.
Detroit does have its ace on the hill in Justin Verlander (12-6, 3.45 ERA) but he's been a bit shaky lately, going 1-1 in his last three with a 5.57 ERA. He's allowed 14 runs in his last three starts and the Twins rocked him for five runs in six innings on Saturday, beating the Tigers 11-0. In Verlander's lone outing against Boston last year he allowed five runs in six innings of a 5-1 loss.
Clay Buchholz (1-2, 5.33) is on the mound for Boston, coming off a solid start in New York on Saturday, allowing just two runs in six innings. In his lone home start this season he gave up two runs in 5.2 innings to the A's.
I think the Red Sox have gotten over their scoring slump, putting up 21 runs in the first three games of this series. They continue to be one of the best home teams in baseball, going 37-15 at Fenway while the Tigers are a disaster on the highway at just 7-21 in their last 28 on the road.
Look for Boston to finish this series in style. Play the Red Sox in this one.
4♦ BOSTON
Karl Garrett
Detroit -115 at BOSTON
That makes it 2 straight comp play winners from the G-Man, as the Cardinals cash in on the RUN LINE last night.
Let's get # 3 in a row early today at Fenway Park, as I expect Detroit to avoid the 4-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox.
I mean, Detroit is a 1st place team right?
They sure haven't played like it in the first 3 games of this 4 game set, as they were romped 8-2 last night.
Today the Tigers have their "ace" on the hill, as Justin Verlander sports a 12-6 record for the year, and Detroit is a solid 15-9 when he starts. Yes, he has struggled early in games in his last couple of starts, but I expect him to buckle down this afternoon, and stay on the Sox throat all game long.
Clay Buchholz counters, and he has not been able to give Terry Francona what he has needed in the rotation yet, as evidenced by his 5.33 season ERA.
They have already lost the series, but today Detroit at least stops the bleeding, and avoids the 4-game clean sweep.
Take the Tigers.
2♦ DETROIT
Dominic Fazzini
N.Y. Yankees at SEATTLE
The Cardinals beat the Reds 5-2 Wednesday as a run-line selection, giving me nine wins in my last 12 complimentary selections, including four straight! Today's game is destined to be another lock!
The Yankees enter this one a little banged up, as Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez might all sit out with minor injuries. That doesn't discourage me, however, as I'm basing this primarily on C.C. Sabathia being on the mound.
Sabathia (12-7, 3.76 ERA) is starting to really hit his stride, with wins in four of his last five outings. The big left-hander also is 17-2 in August since 2005, leading the majors in wins during the month over that stretch.
Sabathia allowed two hits in 7 2/3 scoreless innings Saturday against Boston.
Seattle will start Ian Snell (2-8, 5.42), who was acquired from Pittsburgh on July 29. The right-hander, who is 0-0 with a 6.14 ERA in two outings with the Mariners, allowed three runs on two hits and six walks in 1 1/3 innings Saturday against Tampa Bay.
New York has won nine of its last 10 games, and 11 of its last 14 against Seattle. With Sabathia getting stronger as the year progresses, there's only one way to go with this game. Take the Yankees on the run line.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at SEATTLE
We bring a 16-5-1 comp play run into Thursday's action, and there is no way you can talk off us off believing the Mariners are going to stay close the the Yankees tonight...even at Safeco Fiield!
New York is on a 9-1 run their last 10, and they have also have won 2 of the 3 season series meetings this year, and 11 of the last 14 overall against the Mariners.
Ian Snell sports a pair of no-decsions for his new club, but the fact is Seattle has lost both of those games, and Snell has walked an alarming 9 batters in his 7-plus innings of work, while allowing 5 runs to score.
CC Sabathia just shut down the Red Sox for nearly 8 scoreless, and we have a feeling his has more goose eggs in his bag of tricks tonight against the M's.
New York is clearly the best team in the bigs right now, and having to travel from coast-to-coast won't be a problem here.
It may take a few innings for the sticks to get warm, but it won't be long against Snell who seems to be lost no matter what uniform he is wearing.
Play on the Yankees on the RUN LINE.
5♦ NY YANKEES -1.5
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play winner is on the Cardinals/Steelers UNDER the total. You'll notice that Vegas has listed all four totals tonight in the low-30s because they aren't stupid. These games are rarely an offensive fireworks display because 1) the defenses are ahead of the offenses this early in the pre-season and 2) the regular starters don't see much action beyond the first series or two. You have to dig deep to find the third and fourth stringers, and then you have to figure out how well they've performed in camp and how well you believe that will equate into points against another live defense. To be honest, I don't believe either team has the firepower to sustain much of a drive after the first teams are on the bench. You're going to hear names like Brian St. Pierre, Tyler Palko, Dennis Dixon and Mike Reilly, and I'm not sure about you, but that doesn't sound like a lot of promising offense. The Steelers are built for defense while the Cardinals finished the season last year proving to everyone that they aren't just an offensive juggernaut. This game will be lucky to be 7-7 by halftime, and once the second half starts I'd be surprised to see more than 10 points scored combined. This one goes UNDER easily.
2♦ UNDER
Triple Threat Sports
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New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles
Play: New England
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Prefer the depth of New England to that of the Eagles, and depth really matters in the preseason. Also think that Pats a good PLAY ON team in preseason since they were winles in the preseason last year, something very rare for a Belichick team. Numbers show that Philly coach Andy Reid just 2-7 ATS in preseason openers as well. However, clinher for this opinion was this quote from Tom Brady regarding his coach and the team's readiness: “It’s been a different training camp this year...I don’t know what he’s got in store. From his tone and the message he’s been sending to the team, it doesn’t sound like it’s going to be a [standard] first preseason game for us. I don’t think it’s like a guest appearance or anything like that. I think we’re going out there to play.’’ - Good enough for me...take the points.
Scott Spreitzer
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Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens
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I'm playing the Under in the battle between the Redskins & Ravens. It doesn't get much better than both coaching staffs telling anyone and everyone that they will offer-up nothing more than a basic, vanilla game-plan every time they have the football. That's the case with both of these offenses. This promises to be a very dull game with no tricks involved, according to the coaching staffs. Instead, both say we will see three-plus quarters of young players trying to make the team. Jim Harbaugh came right out and said, "This is an extension of training camp. We're not game-planning for the Redskins. They're not game-planning for us. We're just going to come out and run our basic stuff." Preseason angles and trends mean very little when you hear coaches talking that candidly about an exhibition game. With neither team "pushing it" on offense, and considering Baltimore's QB rotation after Flacco, I have to expect a low-scoring, quickly played contest. I'm playing the Under between the Redskins & Ravens on Thursday night.
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Play on: Under
Tommy Gill
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Dallas ML +110 for 2 units
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Garcia will be out of this contest completely and we see that Dallas is a lot healthier heading into this game and we see them taking their first preseason game against an Oakland team that does not have the depth of Dallas on offense and defense. We see Dallas winning this game SU and we will take the value of the plus money in a preseason game.
LARRY NESS
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Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers
PICK: Cleveland Browns +3
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Eric Mangini takes over as the head coach of the Browns and he was 8-4 SU in preseason games with the Jets. The Browns have a real QB 'battle' in the preseason, as Derek Anderson will try and hold off Brady Quinn. Anderson was terrific in 2007 (3, 787 passing yards with 29 TDs and 19 INTs / 82.5 rating) but his numbers fell way off in 2008, as he fought injuries (1, 615 yards with 9 TDs and 8 INTs / 66.5 rating). I'm not completely sold on Quinn but expect both QBs to "work hard" while they are on the field. Aaron Rodgers did an admirable job replacing Brett Favre last year (63.6 percent for 4, 038 yards with 28 TDs and 13 INTs / 93.8 rating) but the fact remains that the Packers went from 13-3 to 6-10. After a 4-3 start, the Packers lost SEVEN of their final nine games (six losses came by 3, 3, 1, 4, 3 and 4 points!). I believe the Packers have an excellent chance at winning the North Division this year but in Week 1 of the preseason, I don't expect much of an effort. I surely don't expect to see much of Rodgers and after him, the Packers have no one. I'm taking the points with Mangini in his Cleveland debut.
Drew Gordon
Philadelphia at CHI. CUBS +120
Now on a 40-28 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Mariners over the White Sox 1-0 last night! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Philadelphia/Chi. Cubs match up...
I know plenty of bettors are salivating at the chance at siding with Cliff Lee and the defending champs in this spot, but hold your horses boys. There's a couple things I want you to consider before betting the farm on the visiting Phillies here:
First, Ryan Dempster has been excellent over his last two starts, allowing just 2 earned over his L12 innings. Critics point to his poor effort against the Astros July 28th, but c'mon guys, it was his first start back from a 3 week lay-off (broken toe) and since then he's been sharp. Moreover, 5 of his L7 home starts have been quality efforts, so let's not underestimate the Cubs righty in this spot.
Second, its tough to argue against stud Cliff Lee, but if there's any place he's vulnerable, it'd be on the road, where he went 4-3 with a beatable 3.27 ERA as a member of the Indians. True, he's 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Cubs, but again, let's not get too carried away. The Cubs saw him back in June, and the way they've been hitting lefties of late, Lee will be tested early and often.
That brings me to my final point: The Cubs are 6-1 at Wrigley against lefties in day games! A big part of that is their ability to hit lefties at home, averaging 5.4 runs per game in that spot, batting .276 in the process. In the end, the public may love Lee in this spot, but the Cubs are 33-21 at home for a reason, and their 6-1 record against southpaws in day games is NO accident... Now let's go grab some of that plus money Thursday afternoon!
Take the Chicago Cubs behind Dempster over Philadelphia and Lee in this MLB match up.
2♦ CHI. CUBS
VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Astros at Florida Marlins
The Marlins and Astros have combined to score 51 runs in the first three games of this series as both offenses have been hot. Houston has gone Over in 13 of their 15 games this season against the NL East. Houston starter Mike Hampton has not had his good stuff lately allowing 14 runs in his last 12 innings pitched. Florida’s Sean West has not been much better as he has allowed 13 runs in his last three starts. Go with the Over.
Play on: Over
BIG AL
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
After failing to beat Pedro Martinez last night, the Cubs go from the frying pan to the fire today when they take on lefthander Cliff Lee and the Philadelphia Phillies.
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Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on the Windy City's North Side.
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Jamie MoyerWith the acquisition of veteran Pedro Martinez and tonight's starter, lefthander Cliff Lee, the Phillies have moved veteran lefthander Jamie Moyer to the bullpen, and although Moyer was not initially happy about the decision, this could end up being one of the most important moves that the defending World Champions have made all season.
The Phillies have one of the most injured bullpens in the league, and the relievers that are healthy have been extremely over-worked this season. As a result, the Phillies – who have arguably the best overall team in the league – are 11th in team relief ERA in the NL. Moyer is obviously a professional so don't be surprised if he becomes a key contributor in the last six weeks of the season helping his team preserve leads instead of relinquishing them.
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Lee has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for so far; in two NL starts over 16 innings, the reigning AL Cy Young winner has only allowed 10 hits and has an ERA of 1.13 with 15 strikeouts and just three walks.
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And since the Indians used to play the Cubs on a semi-regular basis, Lee actually has a track record against this team and it's a very good one. In two career starts against Chicago, Lee is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA. Take the Phillies.
Pick: Phillies -130