JR TIPS
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ASTROS at MARLINS
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The Florida Marlins ended their longest winning streak of the season and an unbeaten home record against the Houston Astros after Houston had a big night at the plate.The Astros will try to build on their best offensive performance in months tonight again against Florida. Florida (60-54) had won seven straight at home against Houston (56-58) and five in a row overall.For Houston, Carlos Lee added three hits, three RBIs and two runs, and Hunter Pence connected on two three-run homers for a career-high six RBIs. Pence is 6 for 15 (.400) in this series and the Astros have 28 runs and are batting .317 in this series. Florida will face Houston's Mike Hampton (7-9, 5.30 ERA) after the left-hander gave up three runs in two innings before leaving with a sprained right knee Saturday, suffering a 12-5 loss to Milwaukee. He got cortisone shots in both knees Sunday to be able to pitch through pain for the rest of the season. Hampton has gone 10-7 with a 4.48 ERA in 25 games against the Marlins. Sean West (3-4, 4.88) will start for Florida as the rookie left-hander was recalled from the minors to make his first start of the second half Saturday and gave up three runs in four innings of a 6-4 win over Philadelphia. These teams have been hitting the ball all over the park all series and it will definitely continue today as both offenses are playing with supreme confidence and facing rookie sent up from the minors last week and Mike Hampton who will be pitching with pain. Hampton may not make it out of the 3rd inning tonight and you can count on a lot of runs scored early.
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TAKE OVER 10
THE SPREAD
Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians
Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Pick: Texas
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Detroit is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Pick: Boston
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games
Chi Cubs are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home
Pick: Philadelphia
LT Profits
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners needed 14 innings to win 1-0 here at Safeco Field last night vs. the White Sox, and we are anticipating another low scoring game tonight vs. CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees.
Sabathia is finally starting to live up to his fat (pun intended) contract, and he may be coming off of his best performance as a Yankee, allowing only two hits in 7.2 scoreless innings with nine strikeouts vs. the Boston Red Sox. Now, CC was hit hard by Seattle the only time he faced them this season, allowing six runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings at Yankee Stadium, but he had six consecutive Quality Starts vs. the Mariners prior to that, so we look for him to get some revenge.
Meanwhile, Ian Snell pitched well in his Seattle debut, allowing just two runs and three hits in six innings vs. the Texas Rangers, but he then regressed in his second American League start vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. However, he has still allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts including his work with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he could be tough facing the Yanks for the first time ever.
Besides, if the Mariners struggle as much offensively here as we expect, Snell only need to be decent to keep this game Under, which certainly seems reasonable.
Pick: Yankees/Mariners Under 8.5
Cajun Sports
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies will be seeking the series sweep of the Cubs on Thursday afternoon at Wrigley Field after taking Game Two on Wednesday by a final score of 12 to 5 and the opener on Tuesday 4 to 3. The Phillies will send recently acquired left-hander Cliff Lee to the bump with his 3-0 record his last three starts and an ERA of 1.57. Philly is 33-19 (+15.5) on the road, 15-5 (+8.9) on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 and 22-12 (+12.2) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Chicago will hang their hopes of salvaging one game in this series on Ryan Dempster who is 6-5 on the year with an ERA of 4.04 including 4-1 at home with an ERA of 4.62. The Cubs are 7-17 (-10.9) when playing against a team with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent, 9-20 (-12.9) versus a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start and 4-21 (-16.4) as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. The Phillies are active in a MLB system that tells us to Play ON any MLB team with a starting pitcher who gives up seven or more hits per start with a WHIP of 1.000 or less over his last five starts for a record of 14-4 the last three seasons and a profit of +10.1 units. The five year mark for this system is 39-14 (73.6%) for +24.6 units of profit. Lay the chalk with Philly as they complete the sweep of the Chicago Cubs on Thursday afternoon at Wrigley Field.
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Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 2 Chicago Cubs 0
New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: New England Patriots +3
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Brady tore the ACL in his left knee in the regulars season opener last year and missed the remainder of the season. Now healthy, the four-time Pro Bowler and three-time Super Bowl winner will attempt to shake off some of the rust in Philadelphia. Second-year-pro Kevin O'Connell and former Raider Andrew Walter are expected to succeed Brady in the lineup on Thursday.
The New England running game grew deeper via the acquisition of veteran Fred Taylor in the offseason. In addition to Taylor, former starters Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will all be trying to solidify roster spots during the remainder of the preseason, and give the Pats a very strong preseason rotation in the backfield.
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The Eagles starters, including Donovan McNabb, are expected to receive only limited reps as well. Running back Brian Westbrook, backup quarterback Kevin and defensive end Trent Cole are among the prominent members of the team who are not expected to see action here. Linebacker Stewart Bradley will miss the season after suffering a torn ACL.
It's been an injury-filled camp for Philly, which will leave them short-handed at several positions against New England. The Eagles signed quarterback Matt Nagy, who went to Delaware and played in the Arena Football League, and was with the team as a coaching intern; however, the NFL nixed that signing, so now the team has signed Adam DiMichele. The undrafted rookie from Temple originally signed with the Eagles in May and was released a month later. Now, DiMichele has been getting a crash course in the offense for this game. He will likely make his NFL debut with the third-team offense against the Patriots.
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The newly-reconstituted offensive line is on track to enter the regular season with NO reps together in training camp or the preseason. Coach Andy Reid plans to rotate his starters into the second quarter against New England, but plenty of backups will see action with the first unit because of all the injuries. Six starters will sit out, including running back Brian Westbrook, right tackle Shawn Andrews, right guard Stacy Andrews , left guard Todd Herremans , defensive end Cole and middle linebacker Stewart Bradley.
Reid doesn’t go all out in the first preseason game of the year anyway, going a perfect 0-5 ATS in their opener has they have not won their first preseason game since 2003. One of our NFLX handicapping strategies is certainly to play AGAINST a team that is working on developing a cohesive offensive line.
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Here, an established starting QB (and RB) is likely to be risked little behind an inexperienced line of rookies and free agents. In this situation, we are presented with untried linemen trying to protect a 2nd-string QB and block for 2nd-string RBs.
Meanwhile, New England is 5-1 ATS in their preseason openers and should be eager to hit the field here. We look for a crisp showing from Brady, while Philadelphia figures to struggle, especially on offense with all of the injury problems. The value is certainly with the visitors here, so we'll gladly take these points.
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FORECAST: 1* NEW ENGLAND BY 1 POINT
BEN BURNS
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Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Detroit Tigers
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The Red Sox began this 4-game set with a 6-5 victory on Monday evening and they proceeded to win both Tuesday and Wednesday's games. I expect the Tigers to bounce back and avoid the sweep in this afternoon's finale. Verlander gets the call and he's been superb. On the season, he's 12-6 with a 3.45 ERA. He's also been brilliant when pitching during the afternoon. In fact, in nine daytime starts, he's gone 5-2 with an awesome 1.74 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .190 in those games. Conversely, Buchholz is 0-1 with an awful 8.10 ERA in his two afternoon starts, allowing opposing batters to hit at a .375 clip in those games. Note that Buchholz has issued nine free passes in his last two starts, a span of just 10 innings. In Buchholz's lone start vs. the Tigers, he allowed 10 hits and five runs in just four innings. That translates to a 11.25 ERA. Consider Detroit
Tom Freese
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Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Over
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Washington is 13-3 OVER their last 16 games and they are 13-3 OVER vs. righty starters. The Nationals are 12-3 OVER their last 15 road games and they are 18-6 OVER their last 24 games as underdogs and they are 9-2 OVER vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Cincinnati is 9-4-1 OVER in Game 1 of a series and they are 6-2-3 OVER their last 11 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. The Reds are 7-0 OVER with Arroyo as a favorite of -151 to -200. PLAY ON 'OVER'
John Ryan
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New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: New York Yankees
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the New York Yankees as they face Seattle slated to start at 10:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-12 for 73% winners since 2003. Play on any team after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less facing an opponent after scoring 1 run or less 2 straight games. Yankees are a solid 19-6 (+11.2 Units) against the money line versus AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season; 38-13 (+21.2 Units) against the money line versus good defensive catchers allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 14-3 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. Take the Yankees.
Lenny Del Genio
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
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Since winning their 2005 NFLX opener, 38-31 over the Eagles, Pittsburgh has scored more than 20 points in a preseason game just twice. One of those was against the Eagles and it?s a big reason that we find the Steelers just 2-5 ATS the last seven times theyve laid points in the exhibition season.
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Arizona, meanwhile, has scored 20 or more points in preseason play 10 times since 2005. Last year, they were 2 for 2 in road preseason games, outscoring their opponents on average of 25.5 to 8.5. Were not saying it will be that lopsided a result this Thursday night, but last Februarys loss certainly gives the Cards a lot more incentive than their opponents. New DC Bill Davis is aiming to eliminate the big play this preseason, something Pittsburgh is known for and a big reason that Arizona lost half of those games they scored 20+ points in.
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Lets also take a look at the respective QB situations, an all-important preseason handicapping tool. Pittsburgh knows its rotation and that it will forever start with Ben Roethlisberger. The same can be said for Arizona and Kurt Warner, but behind the former Iowa grocery store employee is an interesting backup battle between Matt Leinart and Bryan St. Pierre. Yes, it has come to this for Leinart. This one is for the Birds! Take Arizona.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Seattle Mariners +185
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The M's are showing good value as a healthy home dog tonight against a Yankees team bound to be jetlagged after the long cross-country trip. Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada are all banged up and could sit, but I'm playing against them regardless here. The Yankees have never seen Snell and he will be determined to perform a lot better than he did in his first start at Safeco. Seattle is 7-2 as a home underdog of +150 to +200 over the last 3 seasons. The Yankees are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a road favorite and just 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Seattle. Plus, they are 1-5 in Sabathia's last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The M's are worth a unit here.
Freddy Wills
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Take Phillies -135
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Going with the Phillies here as they hit 3HR last night on there way to an easy victory. They started to feel the pressure from the Marlins and are now going to go on a roll in my opinion. Cliff Lee has been brilliant and has a 1.12 ERA in his last three starts. Phillies like the Cubs are a better day team hitting wise and should have the advantage against Ryan Dempster who struggles when he gives up the long ball. Wrigley field has given up the 6th most HR's this year which is the reason for his 4.62 ERA at home. The Phillies are #3 in MLB in HR and #1 in the National League. Some of the Phillie hitters have great numbers vs. Dempster so I expect that to continue. Cubs are 1-10 following a quality start from Dempster. Look for the Phillies to capitalize on their success from the last time they faced Dempster in August last year he went 6 innings gave up 8 H and 4ER with 4BB.
Mike Rose
Calgary Stampeders +1
The Stampeders opened up their game against the Blue Bombers like gang busters, and looked like they were going to roll to an easy victory. RBs Fred Reid and Yverson Bernard absolutely crippled the Calgary defence in the second half though, and as a result, Stampeders betting enthusiasts suffered the loss even though they won the game 31-23. QB Henry Burris had a tremendous game, throwing for a whopping 356 yards and two touchdowns. He did a great job spreading the ball around the field, hitting eight different targets in his 22 completions.
The Eskies put up 422 yards of offence, held the Ti-Cats to 299 yards of offence, and jumped out to a 12-0 lead, but still couldn’t figure out how to pick up a victory in their Week 6 CFL wagering affair. QB Ricky Ray threw for 335 yards and a score, but he threw two costly interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. When the skies opened up and the rain started to pour down at Ivor-Wynne Stadium, everything went wrong. The weather is only going to get worse in Canada as winter approaches, so the Eskimos had better figure this out quickly.
The Stamps need to assert themselves as the class of the Western Division. A win at Commonwealth Stadium would go a long way towards doing that. Edmonton may have beaten the Als here two weeks ago, but beating the Stamps seems like too difficult of a challenge.
Jorge Gonzalez
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Washington Redskins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play:Under 31.5
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The Ravens and Redskins will be hooking up in a local rivalry to start off their football campaigns. Both teams had one of the best defenses in the league last season. The Ravens had the 2nd best defense, yards and points allowed, and the Redskins were 3rd in yardage and 5th in points. This season the Redskins signed free agent defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth to a 100 million dollar contract. Even though most starters will not play much in the first preseason game of the year, these two organizations emphasize playing defense first. These teams have met four times in the preseason and all four of them have been dogfights that have gone under the posted total. The Redskins have a few injuries and the Ravens will be playing with a new make shift offensive line. Take this game to go Under.