Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday August, 2

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Nationals meet in the finale of a three-game series in the nation's capitol where Cole Hamels takes the mound for Philadelphia knowing he is 11-1 in his last 12 team starts in this series with a 2.34 ERA. Look for Hamels to make it five straight away team start wins during August here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Chris Elliott

San Diego vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -1.5

Elliott began launching his MLB Runline Against the Spread picks last week and so far the results have been very favorable with a record of 5-2 (71%). He has a little beauty on the Thursday card and would like to share it with you today for free! Enjoy and good luck betting!

The San Diego Padres (44-62) will send right hander Ross Ohlendorf to the hill on Thursday afternoon when they take on the Cincinnati Reds (63-41). Ohlendorf is 3-1 on the year with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. In his last 3 starts he has allowed 6 runs in 18.2 innings for an ERA of 2.90.

26 year old right hander Johnny Cueto will toe the rubber for the Reds on Thursday against the Padres. Cueto has been dominating all year for the Reds. He has a record of 13-5 with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of 1.21. He has been almost untouchable at the Great American ball park recently. In his last 5 home starts he is 5-0 and has allowed just 5 runs in 36.2 innings for an ERA of 1.23. The Reds have a record of 9-1 in the last 10 home starts that Cueto has made.

The Padres have had yet another tough season and are currently 13 games back in the NL West Division. They are 4-6 in their last 10 overall and are 3-6 in their last 9 on the road. They have been playing better baseball as of late, but still remain at a dismal -56 on the run differential.
Cincinnati is red hot despite the loss of Joey Votto and now Brandon Phillips to the DL. They have won 9 of their last 10 and 17 of their last 20. They are +65 on the run differential.

This game has the makings of a home team romp. Cueto is a CY Young candidate and by far the better starting pitcher, the Reds have the best bullpen ERA in MLB at 2.61 compared to the Padres 3.35 ERA. Look for Cueto to shut down the Padres offense that ranks 3rd to last in runs scored in MLB and hand the ball over to the most dominant closer in the game today Aroldis Chapman (sorry Craig Kimbrel - close second). In 50.2 innings this year, Chapman has an astounding 95 Ks, sparkling 1.42 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and .126 BAA! Just plain filthy!

Take the Reds to win this game -1.5 Runline ATS.

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds -1½

The Reds are a 2-1 favorite here but are worth a look on the run line as they fit a nice system here today. We want to play on home favorites that are -190 or higher that are off a home favored win by 2 or more runs at -140 or higher and scored 5 or more runs and had 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs at +140 or higher, if the scored 4 or less runs, also with 5 or more men left on base. This system has won 40 of 48 times the last 9 years. Cueto is pitching for The Reds and he is 8-1 with a 1.94 era this year. He will oppose Ohlendorf for San Diego today. Ohlendorf has a 6.90 road era. The Reds have on 16 of the last 20 vs losing teams and 5 of the last 6 as a home favorite in this range. Look for the Reds to take the finale.

Jim Feist

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Minnesota Twins

Boston has never seen Minnesota righty Samuel Deduno and the kid has been impressive with a 3.13 ERA. His last three starts he has a 2.55 ERA. Fenway Park is a great hitter's park and Boston is a favorite behind Jon Lester, but Lester has a 13.50 ERA his last three starts. All that is part of a luckluster season with a 5-8 record and a 5.49 ERA. And he's 1-3 all time against the Twins with a 4.95 ERA, including a 6.43 ERA this season against them. Play the Twins!

Dave Cokin

Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals

I'm not a Bruce Chen fan, but he's a lefty and the slumping Indians are awful vs. southpaws. I'm unimpressed with Cleveland rookie Corey Kluber, and I'm therefore going to call for the Royals complete the series sweep.

CHRIS JORDAN

My free pick run is at 27-15 and tonight I am headed to the scene of last night's most memorable game, Arlington, where the Texas Rangers walked off against the Angels of Anaheim. Last night's win might have thrown a severe dagger into the Halos, and this is why it's going to help Ryan Dempster debut for his new team tonight.

Trust me, I know there are plenty who believe the Angels were and still are dominating this series after winning the first two handedly, and appeared to be on their way to make it three straight with sights set on a sweep. But the fact is, you do something like the Rangers did last night - something special that can rally your troops and remind you how you did things to win the American League the last two years - you suddenly wake up with revived expectations and new additions.

Speaking of which, acquired from the Chicago Cubs before the deadline, I think you're going to see some revitalized life from the right-handed Dempster, who will make his first-ever start against the Angels. For the record, he's 5-6 with a 3.50 ERA in his last 14 starts against American League teams in Interleague action.

There's no reason to doubt him, really. He's been one of the more durable pitchers in the bigs more recenly, firing 200-plus innings four years in a row since transitioning from closer back to starter. He's a quick worker, and that might make it hard on a hard-swinging Angels team that likes to control the tempo.

I'll look for Dempster to command his two-seam, 90 mile per hour fastball with good run and sink, complimented by his hard, titled slider he isn't afraid to throw anytime in the count.

My money is on the Rangers getting it done tonight, and I'll list Dempster.

1* TEXAS

JEFF BENTON

6-2 free play run coming into Thursday.

Your Thursday freebie is the Angels-Rangers game to stay Under the posted total.

Last night's game turned out to be one wild affair in Arlington, as the game see-sawed back-and-forth before the Rangers ended it 11-10 in extra-innings.

Don't look for the offense to continue blasting away tonight, as I have a feeling both C.J. Wilson and Ryan Dempster will be locked in as they duel into the August night in Texas this Thursday.

Wilson did not have a good month of July (0-3 with an over 4 ERA in 6 starts), but he is 7-1 the last two years in the month of August with a 2.45 ERA.

Ryan Dempster totes a 2.25 season ERA over from the Cubs to work his first game in a Texas uniform, and he is 4-3 with a 2.67 ERA since the 2010 season in starts against the American League.

Things settle down in a hurry tonight as Wilson and Dempster will control the action.

Go Under the total in the Angels-Rangers finale.

2* L.A.ANGELS-TEXAS UNDER

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets/SAN FRAN Over 8 +110

Barry Zito is 8-7 with a 3.89 ERA. At home, he’s 4-4 with a 3.41 ERA and over his last three starts, he’s 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA. Looks pretty consistent, doesn’t it? On paper, yes, but a peek under the hood reveals some issues. Over the last month, Zito’s very average groundball rate of 41% has dropped to 37%. He’s still allowed four runs or more in half of his past eight starts. His control and strikeout levels remain below average and his form suggests an xERA of 4.83 in these final two months.

Chris Young is even worse. Since coming off the DL on June 6 and subsequently starting 10 games, Young has 34’s K’s in 57 innings but has struck out two or less in three of his past four starts. More troublesome is that his groundball/fly-ball profile sits at 26%/58%, which is one of the major’s worst marks. Just how bad is he? Young has an xERA of 7.13. Alarming, to say the least.

Then there’s the park factor. The damp night time air makes this open-air park extremely pitcher-friendly. However, this is a day game in San Francisco and summer days favor hitters at AT&T Park. A check of the conditions shows the wind blowing out to right center at 16 MPH and with everything working in our favor this becomes a very playable total.

Bryan Power

LA Angels vs. Texas
Pick: Over

It will be a baptism by fire for the Rangers new acquisition Ryan Dempster, who came over at the trade deadline in many ways as an answer to the Angels acquiring Zack Greinke last week. But tonight LA will go with CJ Wilson, who has had a nice year, but has struggled of late. Last night saw these teams play to a wild 11-10 final in favor of the Rangers. I expect plenty of scoring again Thursday.

Wilson has a 5.58 ERA his last three starts. Here, he'll be facing a Rangers lineup averaging 5.4 runs per game here at home and 5.1 runs per game vs. lefties. Last year saw the Angels go Over in 10 of 12 August road games. Offensively, they have scored 31 runs against Texas pitching in three games.

Making his first start for his new team, Dempster could find plenty of trouble. Truth be told, I'm not crazy about this move for the Rangers as the move from the National to American League will be a difficult transition for Dempster. Because of the trade, he hasn't pitched since the 25th. He is 14-3 Over in his career when working on 7 or more days rest. The Over is also 10-1 the last three seasons in Dempster starts when the total is 9 or 9.5. This is a hitters park he's moving to as well. High scoring game tonight.

JR ODonnell

Nationals -110

These Philadelphia Phillies (46-57 25-28 road) visit the Washington Nationals (61-44 28-20 home) in a game matching the first and last place team in their division. Phillies send out lefty Cole Hamels (recent big 144 million contract) who is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA, but is 1-2 in his last "5" starts, and in his last game threw only "53" strikes in 109 pitches. On the other hand the Nationals send out crafty Ross Detweiler who is 5-4, 3.24 ERA, but in his last "5" starts is 1-1, but with a 2.35 ERA. Also factor in that the Phillies for the year are hitting .234 against lefties, and that the Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 and at home. Big first win in August with the Nationals.

Jimmy Boyd

Philadelphia Phillies +103

Look for the Phillies to earn the series sweep with Nationals killer Cole Hamels on the hill. He's 12-4 (17-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.48 in 22 career starts versus Washington. The Phillies are 11-1 in his last 12 starts versus the Nats, including 5-0 in his last 5 road starts against them. Washington's Ross Detwiler hasn't had as much success against Philly. He's 1-3 (2-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.79 in 5 career starts versus the Phillies. Bet the Phillies.

Vegas Experts

Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays ridding a 4-game skid have caught a break heading into this four-game set with the Athletics. The A's have suddenly stopped hitting crossing just 1.4 runs/game the past four while the pitching staff has given up a whopping 5.3 runs/game over the span in posting a 1-3 mark. Henderson Alverez who allowed just one run on five hits in his win against Detroit last start is the probable starting pitcher for Toronto. Alvarez off back-2-back wins along with a smart 4-1 record on the road can easily keep A's cooled off while Toronto hitters do a number on Bartolo Colon entering 2-6 at home and 0-3 opening a series at O.co Coliseum. Stick with Jays, as the A's hitters have another off night at the plate.

MTi Sports

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Minnesota Twins

The Red Sox did win Lester?s last start, but they scored eight runs for him to win 8-6. Lester allowed four runs in six innings of work, which was his best outing in some time. Apparently, the linesmakers are assuming this improvement will continue. We don?t think so.

Boston is 0-7 when Jon Lester starts as a favorite after his team scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start.

Note that Lester was an average of minus-165 on the moneyline in these seven games. Minnesota?s staff has produced six straight quality starts and they are 4-2 in those six games, with both losses by a single run as an underdog.

The Twins have the line value here.

Jack Jones

Oakland A's -122

The Oakland A's have won 19 of their last 25 games overall. Coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since June 29-30, I have the A's bouncing back with a victory in Game 1 of this series with Toronto Thursday.

The A's clearly have the edge on the mound in this one with Bartolo Colon, who is 7-8 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in 20 starts this season. Toronto's Henderson Alvarez is 7-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.365 WHIP in 20 starts.

The Blue Jays remain without their best hitter, Jose Bautista, who is on the DL with a wrist injury. Toronto has really missed Bautista of late, losing four straight while scoring a combined seven runs (1.8/game) in the process.

The Blue Jays are 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Toronto is 1-5 in its last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The A's are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter. Oakland is 36-17 in its last 53 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the A's Thursday.