Jeff Alexander
St. Louis Cardinals -142
Fading the Rockies, who have dropped 19 of 24 at home, including 7 in a row. The Cards, meanwhile, have won 9 of 12 and should keep right on rolling with Lance Lynn on the rubber. The Cardinals are 16-5 in Lynn's last 21 starts and 13-1 in his last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 0-4 in Alex White's last 4 starts. Take the Red Birds.
Goodfella
NY Mets +117
I simply cannot back the Giants as a favorite given the fact that they cannot seem to score. They've managed more than five hits just once in the last five games. Mets SP Young has pitched very well vs the SF Giants the L/4 years 3 starts (2-0 & 0.45 ERA) including 7 shutout innings at AT & T Park. We have faded Zito with good success, by picking our spots fading him this season & this is a good spot to fade him & this SF team today, IMO. Young is far above average, and the pressure is squarely on the Giants. Without Posey in the lineup (rest) and the way the Giants pen has been performing (or not, as the case may be) we actually trust the aging Mets pen a bit more. My money is on the NY METS this afternoon.
MLB Predictions
Minnesota Twins +170
The Minnesota Twins had won 4 straight before losing the final two games versus the White Sox each by a single run. Over that 6 game span the Twins scored 40 runs (6.67 per game). They are now 44-60 on the season and 21-28 on the road. The Red Sox couldn't sweep the Tigers as they fell 7-5 in last night's ball game, but had won 4 straight heading into the game. They are 53-52 and 27-29 at home. Tonight's starter for Minnesota is Sam Deduno who is 2-0 through 4 starts with a 3.13 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and .247 opponents batting average. Over his last two starts he has pitched 13.1 innings of work allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 hits. In AAA this season he had a solid 2.14 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .185 opponents batting average. Southpaw Jon Lester will take the rubber for Boston and he is 5-8 on the season with a 5.49 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .286 opponents batting average. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed 4, 6, 11, and 4 earned runs against (25 in 18.1 innings) only getting out of the 4th inning once. His July ERA was 9.36 over 5 starts with batters hitting .357 against him. Take note that the Red Sox are just 2-8 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 1-4 in Lester's last 5 starts overall, and 1-6 in his last 7 home starts. They are also 0-5 in Lester's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. With the Twins averaging over 6 runs per game in their recent 6 game home stand there is a good chance they can get to Lester who has been struggling. Deduno has pitched relatively well and should give the Twins a good shot at upsetting Boston tonight. There is some good value on the Twins +170 tonight and we will take that for 2 units.
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is sitting at 84-53-2 right now.
Tonight I want you playing the St. Louis Cardinals with Lance Lynn over the Colorado Rockies, as he will dominate this lineup.
At press time, there was no line for this game, and I suspect we'll see a relatively big one. If this line climbs above 1.50, go ahead and lay the run line with the defending World Series champs.
Why not? Lynn comes in after allowing a season-high six runs on Friday versus the Cubs after giving up only one run in his first 13 innings out of the All-Star break. Thus, he's going to be out to turn it around and do something right for his team and rebound from that performance.
He's still 2-0 in his last three starts, with a 3.50 ERA, a stretch that included his lone start against the Rockies, on July 5, when the right-hander permitted four hits while striking out seven in six scoreless innings of a 6-2 victory.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Matt Rivers
Free play winner last night on Miami and Atlanta Under the total, and tonight I am coming right back with the Under in the Marlins-Braves to close their series.
Four of the last six series meetings between the teams have held low, and the way Mike Minor is throwing the baseball right now, I cannot see any other choice but to go Under again tonight.
Minor is working on a string of 27-plus innings of 6 run ball, and that includes working 7 frames of 2 run ball on July 23rd at Miami.
Nathan Eovaldi will make his second start in a Marlins uniform, and his first looked sharp with 5-plus innings with just one run allowed.
The Under is now 13-4 the last 17 times these teams have squared off at Turner Field. I say the Under comes through one more time tonight.
1♦ UNDER
Dom Chambers
The Oakland A’s didn’t get it done for me and it cost me a free play winner. I am still on a nice roll, going 15-8 in my last 23 games.
Today, let’s add to the winning total with a big underdog play.
Let’s go with the Minnesota Twins to beat the Boston Red Sox.
Samuel Deduno starts for the Twins. He was the winner Saturday against the Indians and over four starts this season, he has given up eight earned runs over 23 innings.
He will give the Twins a quality start.
Jon Lester starts for the Red Sox. He has had a tougher time. In his last three starts, he is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA.
Against lefties, the Twins’ offense gets a bit better, as it averages 4.4 runs overall, but 4.7 against lefties.
Take the team with the hotter pitcher.
Take the Twins.
2♦ TWINS
Craig Davis
Your Thursday free play is the Los Angeles Angels.
What a wild and wacky series this has been. The Rangers appeared to be washed up last night, but a late, ninth inning rally propelled them to a much-needed victory over one of their rivals.
Tonight CJ Wilson faces his former team for only the second time since coming to Los Angeles. His first start was back in May in which he started one game, got into a rain delay, never came back, but pitched the next day.
He was solid in six innings of work scattering no runs on five hits in a 3-2 Angels win.
May and June were very good to Wilson as he posted a 5-0 record with a 1.30 ERA over a seven-start stretch. But July wasn't very good as he failed to earn a win and posted a 4.23 ERA in six July starts. August, however, according to history, should be much better as he's 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA over his last two Augusts.
The newly-acquired Ryan Dempster starts his first game ever for the Texas Rangers tonight. He was outstanding for the first four months of this season, but the Cubs were awful and it was time to get something for Dempster instead of letting him test the free agent waters.
But anytime a pitcher moves from a bad team to a good team, he feels the weight of the world on his shoulders. I don't believe this will be a very solid outing for Dempster, if for nothing else his nerves and the pressure will get to him.
The Angels desperately want to leave Texas on a high note, and beating Dempster in his Texas debut would be a nice way to end this series.
Take Los Angeles as your free play of the day.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
Scott Delaney
My free pick once again is on the Kansas City Royals, against the struggling Cleveland Indians, who have lost five straight. Fact is, as these two American League Central foes get together at Kauffman Stadium tonight, and the Indians have faded from contention. I don't see any life in the Indians, no drive whatsoever, as they came into this series after being outscored 28-6 while being swept in Minnesota, and then lost the last two nights, 8-3 and 5-2.
Cleveland had even won eight of the last nine matchups in Kansas City, but it didn't matter, as the Indians are playing horribly right now.
Cleveland has gotten so desperate, it's handing the ball to right-hander Corey Kluber, who will be promoted from Triple-A to replace struggling pitcher Josh Tomlin. Though Kluber has gone 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in his last 10 starts at Columbus, make note in three relief appearances last season for the Tribe, he had a rather high 8.31 ERA.
I'd rather have starter Bruce Chen, who isn't exactly having a banner year, but has enough experience to know when to take advantage of the right situation. He's 6-3 lifetime against the Indians.
Play the Royals tonight.
2♦ KANSAS CITY
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is sitting at 84-53-2 right now.
Tonight I want you playing the St. Louis Cardinals with Lance Lynn over the Colorado Rockies, as he will dominate this lineup.
At press time, there was no line for this game, and I suspect we'll see a relatively big one. If this line climbs above 1.50, go ahead and lay the run line with the defending World Series champs.
Why not? Lynn comes in after allowing a season-high six runs on Friday versus the Cubs after giving up only one run in his first 13 innings out of the All-Star break. Thus, he's going to be out to turn it around and do something right for his team and rebound from that performance.
He's still 2-0 in his last three starts, with a 3.50 ERA, a stretch that included his lone start against the Rockies, on July 5, when the right-hander permitted four hits while striking out seven in six scoreless innings of a 6-2 victory.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +103 over WASHINGTON
Being 10½ games out and in last place in the NL East, the Phillies are out of this thing. They’ve accepted that and now they’ll just have to enjoy the role of the spoiler.
The Phillies have won six of nine and have outscored the Nationals 11-2 in the first two games of this series against starters, Stephen Strasburg and Edwin Jackson.
Ross Detwiler has spent most of the year in the minors. He does a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground but his marginal strikeout rate and career BAA of .268 suggests there's probably not much upside.
This one is more about playing on Cole Hamels against a Nationals team that struggles against lefties and Hamels is one of the best. Hamels has 138 K’s in 139 innings with just 39 walks issued. His xERA of 3.30 is almost identical to his actual 3.31 ERA, confirming that he’s one of the most consistent pitchers in the business. For a Phillies team that is 10 games under .500, Hamels is 11-5 and as a pooch he holds tremendous value.