SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Cincinnati (0-1 SU and ATS) at New England (1-0 SU and ATS)
Patriots’ fans should get to see Tom Brady on the field at Gillette Stadium for the first time since he injured his knee in the regular-season opener last year when New England entertains the Bengals.
Brady took 24 snaps and played virtually the entire first half a week ago in New England’s 27-25 win in Philadelphia as a three-point underdog. Brady is expected to start this game but likely won’t play as long as last week as coach Bill Belichick is trying to identify his backup. A preseason battle has ensued between second-year pro Kevin O’Connell and five-year NFL veteran Andrew Walter, so expect to see each for a good amount of time in this one.
Cincinnati’s starting QB Carson Palmer will sit this game out after injuring his ankle in last week’s 17-7 loss at New Orleans as a three-point road underdog. That leaves No. 2 quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan as the starter, and he’s slated to play at least through the middle of the second quarter, with Palmer’s brother, Jordan, taking over the play-calling duties the remainder of the contest.
The Patriots were winless in August last year, both SU and ATS, and they haven’t had a winning preseason since going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2003. At home, they are 4-6 SU and ATS in preseason action the last five years, including 1-3 SU and ATS the last two Augusts in Foxborough.
The Bengals have been the picture of preseason mediocrity since coach Marvin Lewis took over in 2003, going 12-13 SU and 13-12 ATS. However, even with last week’s loss to the Saints, they are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS as a visitor the past three years in August (all as an underdog), winning both road games last preseason.
The over is 7-4 in New England’s last 11 preseason games (4-1 at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (0-1 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Eagles have been making headlines all week, but the reason for those headlines will not be in the building when they take the field at Lucas Oil Stadium for a battle with the Colts.
Philadelphia signed former Falcons QB Michael Vick a week ago but due to his suspension, he is unable to play in the preseason until next week. Eagles coach Andy Reid said QB Donovan McNabb and the Philadelphia starters will play the first half tonight. From there, expect to see current third-string QB A.J. Feeley play the entire second half with backup QB Kevin Kolb still out with a knee injury and Vick unable to suit up.
Indianapolis’ starting offense was on the field for just six plays in Friday’s 13-3 home loss to the Vikings as a four-point home underdog, with starting QB Peyton Manning getting sacked on three of the six plays. New coach Jim Caldwell announced Manning and the rest of his starters will be on the field for about 20 plays this week. With longtime backup QB Jim Sorgi still out injured, expect rookie QB Curtis Painter to get the majority of the snaps in the second half, with another rookie – former Boston College QB Chris Crane – seeing mop-up action late in the fourth quarter.
The Eagles lost 27-25 at home to the Patriots in their exhibition opener, falling as three-point home favorites. They’ve had just one winning preseason in Reid’s decade-long tenure at the helm, also managing just three .500 exhibition campaigns in this stretch. Philly is just 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS in exhibition road games the last five years.
Including last week’s 10-point loss to Minnesota, the Colts are now 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS in preseason play since 2005. During this stretch, Indianapolis has lost eight of nine preseason home games both SU and ATS and is 3-8 ATS as an underdog.
Indy is holding out 10 players from this week’s game, including six starters, while the Eagles are leaving eight regulars at home, including four of their projected starters on the offensive line.
The Eagles have topped the total in eight of their last 10 exhibition games while Indianapolis has stayed under the total in four straight preseason contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (61-57) at L.A. Dodgers (71-50)
The struggling Cubs continue their West Coast road trip, opening a four-game set in Los Angeles with lefty Tom Gorzelanny (5-2, 5.24) on the mound opposite Dodgers veteran Jeff Weaver (5-4, 3.77).
Chicago salvaged the finale of a three-game set in San Diego on Wednesday, getting a superb one-hit pitching performance from Rich Harden in a 7-1 victory over the Padres. Despite the win, the Cubs are just 3-7 in their last 10 and still nine games under .500 on the road this season at 26-35. Chicago is on further slides of 8-20 on the road against winning teams, 1-4 against the N.L. West and 0-5 against teams with a winning record.
The Dodgers just dropped two of three at home against the N.L. Central-leading Cardinals, capped by Wednesday’s 3-2 loss. Los Angeles has struggled lately both overall (7-11 in August) and in front of the home fans (1-5 in the last six). The Dodgers are on positive runs of 22-10 in their last 32 at home against southpaws and 9-4 in their last 13 Thursday contests.
Gorzelanny, who was traded from Pittsburgh last month, is making his fourth start in a Cubs’ uniform and coming off a strong home outing on Saturday, holding his former team to one run on three hits in five innings of a 3-1 win. The former Pirates’ starter has made two career starts against the Dodgers (both in 2007), giving up three runs in each outing over a total of 12 2/3 innings (4.26 ERA).
These teams split four meetings at Wrigley Field at the end of May, but including last year’s first-round playoff series that Los Angeles swept in three games, the Dodgers are on a 7-3 roll against Chicago (3-1 at home).
Weaver has made only one start since July 11, going just three innings on Aug. 12 in San Francisco, holding the Giants scoreless on two hits with L.A. eventually losing 3-2 in 10 innings Weaver has a 3.08 ERA in his six starts, but hasn’t made it past five innings in any of those games. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.11 ERA in 11 home appearances this season, but just three starts, the last coming on May 20.
The last time Weaver faced the Cubs as a starter was in 2007 for the Mariners and he allowed three runs in six innings of a 5-4 loss at Wrigley. Dating back to when he was a regular starter, the Dodgers are 7-2 in Weaver’s last nine home starts (2-1 this year) and 7-3 when he starts against a team with a winning record.
Chicago is on “over” runs of 19-8 on Thursdays, 5-1 against the N.L. West and 5-1 on the road, but the under has been the play in six of its last seven series openers. Los Angeles has stayed under the total in five of Weaver’s last seven starts and four of his last five at home, but as a team, the Dodgers are on “over” streaks of 10-5-1 at home and 6-2-1 at home against teams with losing road records. Finally, this series has stayed under the total in four of the last five meetings overall and five of the last seven clashes in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER