Scott Rickenbach
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Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Indianapolis Colts +3
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We faded the Eagles right here last week (and it paid off) as Philadelphia lost outright to the Patriots as a small favorite. Once again, in Week Two, the Eagles are favored and, once again, we’ll grab the value with the points on the other side! As noted last week, the Eagles training camp has already been ravaged by injuries. First it was linebacker Stewart Bradley (a starter!) and rookie tight end Cornelius Ingram. They were each lost to season-ending ACL injuries. Now, more recently, QB Kevin Kolb and defensive end Trent Cole were each lost to injury and already missed the pre-season opener. It’s truly a mess in Philly but, as of Tuesday morning, they’re still laying three points in this match-up. That’s offering a lot of line value to the Colts.
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We expect this line value to hold until game time because the Eagles have covered the number in Game Two of the preseason ten straight times! This will certainly get some people’s attention and that will result in an “overlay” on the Eagles! Keep in mind, current situational edges are more important than trend data! As for the Colts, they were very disappointed with how their offensive line played in Game One. They should be healthier for Game Two (as well as fired up) after the 13-3 loss they took last week. Note that the Eagles scored 25 points last week so, even though they lost, you can see that it’s the Vikings offense that is likely to be the much hungrier unit entering this game. The Eagles Andy Reid is now 15-26 in preseason action after last week’s loss. Consider a small play on the COLTS on Thursday evening.
MTi Sports
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San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Under
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The Giants are 0-9 OU when Matt Cain starts as a favorite vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date and the Reds are 0-6 THIS season when Aaron Harang starts at home vs a team that has averaged 7+ strikeouts per game. Finally, the Giants are 0-8-1 OU when Matt Cain starts after giving up no walks. Take these two UNDER.
Bob Harvey
Florida at Houston
Florida's offense is cooking right along these days and four games short of breaking a 72-year old MLB record. Back Florida on Thursday in the finale of their series in Houston
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The Florida Marlins are at it again. Despite the league’s worst attendance and lowest payroll, the Fish are somehow right in the thick of the NL Wild Card race and still have an outside chance to catch Philadelphia atop the NL East.
Arthur Andersen Memorial StadiumThe Marlins had won seven of their last eight games against the Astros and 10 of 12 overall before losing on Wednesday. It was a frustrating defeat as Florida had numerous chances but failed to get that key hit or two, stranding a staggering 16 baserunners in the 6-3 loss.
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The Fish go with their ace tonight as six-foot, six-inch Josh Johnson takes the hill. The burly righthander is 12-2 on the season with a solid 2.85 ERA. His control has been one of the big keys to his success. Johnson's strikeout-to-walk ratio is an eye-popping 3.5/1 and he’s been nearly untouchable over his last three starts going 2-0 with an ERA of 2.86. He’s also struck out 26 in 20.1 innings over that same stretch while walking just four. Johnson is also a threat with the stick batting .200 with three home runs.
Wandy Rodriguez enters the contest with an 11-7 mark and an ERA of 3.65 but unlike Johnson, Rodriguez has struggled in his last three appearances. The Astros lefty is 1-1 but has allowed 10 earned runs and 18 hits over 15 innings. His ERA is 6.60 and his WHIP is 1.67 over his past three outings. Much of the damage to Wandy’s numbers came in his last start against Milwaukee when gave up ten runs.
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Florida’s unheralded offense is closing in on a longstanding MLB record. The Marlins have gone 15-straight games with at least 10 hits. It’s the longest streak of its kind in 72 years and leaves Florida just three games away from the all-time mark. During those 15 games, Florida is batting .331 with 18 homers. Hanley Ramirez in particular has given Houston a bad time. H-Ram is hitting .439 with eight homers and 22 RBI’s in 22 games against the ‘Stros this year.
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Florida is 8-2 in the last 10 series meetings but just 3-9 at Minute Maid Park, Putting all the stats and trends aside, the difference in today’s game will be Johnson. His career has been sidetracked by injuries but when healthy, he’s among the best in the game. In what should be a great pitcher’s duel, I’m backing the team that still has something to play for. Take J.J. and the Fish as Florida continues its positive push for a spot in the postseason.
Pick: Marlins -108
Tom Freese
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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets
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New York is 14-6 in the last 20 home starts made by Johan Santana and they are 4-1 off a loss in their last game. The Mets are 5-1 their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 5-0 with Santana on Thursday. Atlanta is 19-43 their last 62 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 2-7 with Kenshin Kawakami in his last 9 starts vs. teams with a losing record. PLAY ON NEW YORK
JR TIPS
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Marlins at Astros
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Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins and Wandy Rodriguez of the Houston Astros have been two of the top pitchers in the NL this season.Johnson looks to follow his best outing of his career with his sixth straight win tonight against Rodriguez looking to bounce back from his worst major league start. Johnson (12-2, 2.85 ERA) continued his dominance in his last start by taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning of a 6-5 win over Colorado.The right-hander allowed one hit while striking out a career-high 11 over 7 1/3 innings to win his fifth consecutive decision. He's 19-3 since returning in July 2008 from an elbow injury that sidelined him for more than a year and required reconstructive surgery.The Astros's Rodriguez (11-7, 3.05) who had held opponents to one or no runs in each of his previous seven starts, gave up a career-high 10 earned runs in four innings of an 11-2 loss at Milwaukee which matched the highest run total allowed by a pitcher in the NL this year. Rodriguez had problems with a lack of command on his fastball and a lack of movement on his breaking ball.Rodriguez is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA in six games against the Marlins as the Marlins Ramirez is 4 for 8 with two triples and a walk in his career against him, while Dan Uggla is 3 for 9 with two doubles. The Marlins (64-56) fell three games back in the wild-card race with a 6-3 loss Wednesday night as they had at least 10 hits for the 15th straight game but stranded a season-high 16 runners.Johnson will hold the Houston offense quiet enough to get the win for the Marlins who have the hottest bats in MLB right now. Houston won"t be lucky enough for the Marlins to leave 16 runners on the base pads tonight.
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TAKE FLORIDA-110
EZWINNERS
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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Boston Red Sox -157
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Boston starting pitcher Jon Lester has been pitching like the ace of the staff lately, posting a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts, but has been the victim of a lack of run support as he has received no decisions in all three of those games. The Red Sox look like their bats are heating up against and they get to face Toronto's rookie lefty Brett Cecil. Cecil is making his first start in over two weeks after coming off of the DL with a knee problem. The Sox do very well against southpaws and they hammered Cecil earlier this to the tune of eight earned runs on eleven hits in only 4 2/3 innings. I expect them to provide Lester with enough run support here to pick up the win. Lester has pitched well against the Blue Jays this season posting a 2-1 record with a 2.33 ERA. I look for another solid performance by him here. Toronto is only 3-13 in their last 16 games against a left handed starter. Play on Boston.
Jake Timlin
Go with the Rockies tonight as they finish off the Nationals with a series sweep.
With last night’s win it’s now Colorado who has won all five meetings this season and 21 of the last 27 over the Nationals who continue to be one of the worst teams in the league. Well thanks to the Rockies playing well again due to them winning 7 of their last 10 games I expect for Colorado to stay perfect against the Nationals this season thanks to another easy win tonight.
Leading the way for the Rockies tonight will be their offense that is getting production from top to bottom, including from a pair of rookies in Fowler and Gonzalez who both are presently playing light’s. Meanwhile, giving the Rockies a lift on the mound will be Hammel who has won 2 of his last 3 starts and helped lead Colorado to a 5-4 win over the Nationals in early July.
Flat out, Colorado is clearly the better team and I expect for them to continue to be the better team in this series tonight as the Rockies sweep the Nationals.
3♦ Colorado Rockies
THE SPREAD
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pick: San Francisco
Florida Marlins at Houston Astros
Florida is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Florida's last 11 games
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Florida
Pick: Florida
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Atlanta is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Pick: NY Mets
Yankee Capper
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Seattle/Detroit Over 8.5
Rockies/Nationals Over 9.5
Boston Red Sox -165
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New England Patriots -6.5
John Ryan
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San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Over
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Giants/Reds. AiS shows a 72% probability that 8 or more runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 51-15 OVER for 77.3% winners since 2003. Play over with NL home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 and with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season and facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting a WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. Giants starter Cain is making his 5th attempt at getting his 13th win of the season. This is one of the most reliable indicators that fatigue is taking over at this point in the season. Cain may have a 2.49 season ERA, but it has ballooned to 4.84 over his last 3 starts. Reds are also 12-4 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. Reds starter Harang is 18-6 OVER (+11.6 Units) in home games versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. Take the OVER.
LT Profits
Texas Rangers -1.5
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The Minnesota Twins have taken the last two games of this series vs. the Texas Rangers after losing the series opener, but we look for the Rangers to gain the series split in emphatic fashion tonight.
Young southpaw Derek Holland has been very impressive for the Rangers, allowing three earned runs or less in four consecutive starts. Furthermore, he is coming off of the two best starts of his brief career, allowing a total of two runs and 10 hits in 15.2 innings with 11 strikeouts vs. only three walks. It should also help him that he is facing a left-handed laden Minnesota lineup.
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On the flip side, Twins starter Anthony Swarzak is sputtering badly, as he has a horrific 18.00 ERA and 3.25 WHIP over his last three starts, lasting a grand total of just eight innings in those starts. That actually earned a demotion to the bullpen for Swarzak, but he is being given one last chance here because projected starter Brian Duensing was forced to pitch in relief on Monday. It also hurts that he is facing a Texas lineup that is batting.301 as a team over the last 10 games.
Finally, the Rangers have remained in the wild card hunt by winning the games that they are supposed to win, going 12-4 in their last 16 games as a favorite. Look for a big win Thursday night
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Pick: Rangers -1.5
Rocketman Sports
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Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Colorado is 67-53 overall in MLB this year while Washington comes in with a 43-77 overall record this year. Washington is 22-54 this year after a loss. Washington is 16-45 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Colorado will be going for their 4th win in a row here tonight. Washington bullpen has a 5.01 ERA overall this year. Jason Hammel is 5-4 with a 3.23 ERA on the road this year and 2-1 his last 3 starts. Garret Mock is 2-4 with a 5.27 ERA in all games this year and 1-2 with a 5.53 ERA at home this season. Colorado is 5-0 against Washington this year. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado tonight!
LARRY NESS
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Florida Marlins @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
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The Marlins won 6-2 Tuesday night in Houston but the Astros bounced back to win 6-3 last night. The Marlins did reach 10 hits again (had 11) and have now had 10 hits or more in each the last 15 games. It's a remarkable streak which according to the Elias Sports Bureau, matches the longest streak since the St Louis Browns had one that long in 1937! However, in last night's game, the Marlins left a season-high 16 men on base, while the team committed three errors in the field. Tonight's 'rubber' game features Florida's Josh Johnson (12-2, 2.85 ERA) and Houston's Wandy Rodriguez (11-7, 3.05 ERA). Johnson has been quite special in 2009, allowing three ERs or less in 22 of his 24 starts, as the Marlins have gone 18-6 (plus-$1,122, which ranks No. 2 among all MLB starters). Rodriquez hasn't been that good but in seven starts since July 2, he had allowed one ER four times, while holding opponents to zero ERs in the other three, going 5-0 (team did lose both of his no decisions). However, in his last outing, Rodriguez inexplicably allowed 10 hits and 10 ERs in just four innings at Milwaukee, in an 11-2 loss. That was a road game though and we should note that here at Minute Maid Park, Rodriguez is 6-2 with a 1.92 ERA in 11 starts (Astros are 9-2). Going against Johnson is not easy, as since returning in July 2008 from an elbow injury that sidelined him for more than a year and required reconstructive surgery, Johnson is 19-3 in 38 starts (Marlins have gone 29-9!). However, I expect Rodriguez to rebound from his horrible last outing in Milwaukee and here at home, to out-duel Johnson. Take the Astros.
Jimmy Moore
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Philadelphia @ Indianapolis
Pick: Philadelphia -3
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The Eagles will be very alive in this game even with Vick stuck to the sidelines and here is an incredible stat for you: Philly has covered their second pre-season game for the last 10 years in a row. Indy looked very disinterested in their pre-season opener and it is doubtful they will get more interested in this one. Lay the field goal with Philly.
BIG AL
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
At 7:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. Granted, Jon Lester is a fine pitcher, and he's also in super form, with a 2.37 ERA over his last three games, with a 1.00 WHIP. But he'll be opposing a tough, young hurler in Brett Cecil, who has a 3.44 ERA over his last three games, to go along with a 1.20 WHIP. Boston has also been scuffling along in the 2nd half of the season, with just a .500 win percentage, and it has a poor 15-29 record on artificial turf since the 2008 season.
Play on: Toronto