VEGAS EXPERTS
Florida Marlins at Houston Astros
This looks like a great spot to play the visiting Marlins. Josh Johnson continues to excel with a 2.25 ERA in 24 starts this year and the Florida hitters (15 straight 10+ hit games) should feast on Wandy Rodriguez considering they are 24-15 vs. southpaws this season with an average of five runs scored per game. Johnson comes off one of the finest outings of his career (1 hitter, 11 K's) while Rodriguez is off one of his worst (10 ER, 10 hits allowed).
Play on: Florida
Evan Altemus
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: 3 units Under 9
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Both of these pitchers are in great current form, with each averaging a little over one base runner per inning and ERA’s of 2.65 over their last three games. Arizona’s offense has also really struggled recently, so I expect Philadelphia starter Joe Blanton having no problem shutting them down. The Phillies are priced very high in this game, so I feel that they best selection is the under. Arizona starter Doug Davis is in good current form and has vastly improved from earlier in the season. He has only allowed nine runs total in his last five starts. He hasn’t shown a good strikeout to walk ratio, but he has really limited hits. I look for this game to be low scoring and fall under the total.
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3 UNIT SELECTION
Roz Juarbe
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Eagles at Colts
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The Indy offense looked terrible last week with 142 total yards at home in a 13-3 loss to Minnesota. You can see why. Peyton Manning is not playing much and the two backups are rookies, Curtis Painter from Purdue and Chris Cane from Boston College . For the eagles, Mike Vick will not play and backup QB Kevin Kolb is out with a sprained left knee. They added QB Matt Nagy last week, who had been working for the Eagles as a coaching intern prior to his signing. There will not be much offense
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Play the Eagles/Colts Under the total.
John Ryan
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +156
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Colts as they host the Eagles. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 22-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1993. Play on dogs or pick off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the third week of the preseason. Yes, this system makes total sense as a team that was defeated soundly in the pre-season will have strong motivation, especially from the players trying to make the team, to make a stronger impact in the next game. AiS shows a 76% probability that the Colts will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Also, a 90% probability that they will gain between 3 and 3.5 rushing yards per play. Note that the Eagles are a weak 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1993.. Take the Colts.
Lenny Del Genio
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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets
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Incredible price on Johan Santana, who tries to help the Mets recover from a 15-2 beatdown at the hands of the Braves last night. Good spot to take the home team here as the Mets are 22-8 after allowing 9+ runs the previous game while Atlanta is 2-15 on the road after a win by six or more runs the last two seasons. Santanas last outing vs. this opponent saw him toss seven scoreless innings in a 5-1 team win. Take NY Mets.
ATS Consultants
New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 36
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Expect to see less of Tom Brady tonight in the Pats second preseason game. Brady looked like his old self last week in the opener, not feeling any effects of the knee injury suffered in Week 1 last year. O’Connell should see most of the snaps tonight for the Pats.
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As for Cincinnati, you’ll see plenty of Palmer, but just not Carson. Brother Jordan Palmer will get a good look tonight along with JT O’Sullivan. Carson Palmer is sitting this one out in preparation for the season. Looks like an easy under from here.
Minnesota Twins/Texas Rangers OVER 10
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Texas trails Boston by 1 game in the American League Wild Card standings, so they need to bounce back tonight after a tough loss to the Twins last night. Pitching wise, the matchup looks fairly one sided as Rookie Derek Holland has been pitching well for the Rangers, while fellow rookie Anthony Swarzak has been awful lately for Minnesota.
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Swarzak (3-6, 5.87) had started this year pretty decent, but his last few efforts have been brutal to say the least. He’s allowed 16 runs on 25 hits in his last 8 innings of work. That’s almost hard to believe, but it’s true. He’s 1-3 with a 7.89 ERA in his last 5 starts. Like I said, brutal.
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Holland (6-7, 4.88) is on the fast track to superstardom, but he’s not there quite yet. Along with Neftali Feliz, he gives the Rangers two dynamic young arms for the next several years. He’s 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 5 starts. Two of those starts however, have been pretty poor, allowing 7 runs in 7 innings against Oakland on August 4 and Kansas City July 25. Other than those, he’s been nearly flawless. We think Minnesota can get 3-4 runs off of Holland while the Rangers will have no trouble hitting Swarzak.
Mike Rose
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Chicago Cubs
Gorzo put forth a solid effort in his Wrigley Field debut against his former mates. He limited the Buccos to just three hits and an ER through five innings of work to improve his mark to2-1 as a member of the Chicago Cubs. Overall, the southpaw is 5-2 with a 5.24 ERA & 1.16 WHIP allowing 18 hits and 13 ER’s through 22.1 innings of work with a K/BB ratio of 22/8. His fastball has had some nice giddy-up to it since his return to the Bigs, and he came up just a strikeout short of his all time high of nine against the Pirates. This will be his first look at the Dodgers since the 2007 season.
Righty Jeff Weaver gets the starting nod from the Dodgers skipper in this spot. It would have originally gone to Hiroki Kuroda had he not been beamed in the head with a line drive his last start. He’s 5-4 with a 3.77 ERA & 1.47 WHIP through 62 total innings of work in ‘09. He’s started six games for LA this season going 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA. He’s been at his best at Dodgers Stadium where he’s 2-0 with a 3.11 ERA and 28 K’s in 37.2 total innings. He last faced the Cubs in 2007 as a member of the Mariners.
So, Chicago returns to the scene of the crime where the three-game sweep was ultimately pulled out in the 2008 Playoffs. With both of these teams struggling at the moment, anything can happen in this series. Usually in a match up like tonight, I’m inclined to grab the points or go with the +$$$. Do exactly that to have a rooting interest in Game 1 of this series
Michael Cannon
Cincinnati at NEW ENGLAND -6'
Take the Patriots as the home chalk over the Bengals.
Two things that make the Pats the right side here. Tom Brady is going to start and possibly play into the third quarter, and Carson Palmer is out for Cincinnati with an ankle injury.
Even if Bill Belichick pulls a fast one and doesn’t play Brady as long as he did last week, the Pats will be too much for Cincinnati to keep it close.
I do like the direction the Bengals defense is going, but let’s be honest here. Even if the Bengals somehow morphed into the Steel Curtain of the ‘70s they wouldn’t be able to stay within this number without the services of Palmer.
Cincinnati has a decent backup in J. T. O’Sullivan, but he’s not going to do anything against the Pats first-team defense. After that, Jordan Palmer, Carson’s little brother, is nothing more than an extra arm in camp and won’t move the ball at all.
Take the Patriots as the home chalk as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ NEW ENGLAND
Drew Gordon
Florida at HOUSTON +105
Now on a 42-33 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Florida/Houston match up...
As much as you've got to give it to Josh Johnson, this is a tough spot for the Marlins ace on several levels. First and foremost, repeating his outstanding effort he gave against Colorado in his last start will be tough to say the least. He took a no-hitter into the 7th, and bettors always seem to overeact to this kind of effort, expecting another dominant start in the next one... Not so fast, especially on the road, where his ERA is a much more "human" 3.62 on the season.
Second, I love Wandy Rodriguez to bounce back at Minute Maid Park, where he's been his best, going 6-2 with a stellar 1.92 ERA on the season! True, he got rocked at Milwaukee in his last one, but before that start, he had allowed just 9 runs combined runs over his previous 9 starts (impressive)! He's also a solid 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 6 career games (4 starts) against the Fish. Its bounce back time for Wandy Thursday night at home!
Finally, the Astros are not only a much better team at home, but that holds true against the Marlins as well, winning 9 of their L12 meetings with the Fish at Minute Maid Park! While its true the Marlins have been hitting the ball extremely well of late, a match up against Rodriguez at home will serve as a cold bucket of water tonight. In the end, it may be tempting to jump aboard Johnson after his last start, but rest-assured, Rodriguez can and will hang with the Marlins ace in this one. Astros circle the wagons at home tonight!
Take Houston behind Rodriguez over Florida and Johnson in this MLB match up.
3♦ HOUSTON