SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Jacksonville (0-2, 0-1-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (0-2 SU and ATS)
Michael Vick will make his Eagles debut when Philadelphia hosts the Jaguars at Lincoln Financial Field.
Vick, who hasn’t participated in an NFL game since 2006, is expected to play with the first-team offense, both at quarterback and in the “wildcat” formation, sometime in the first half. Coach Andy Reid didn’t spell out how long Vick would be on the field, only that he wouldn’t play in the fourth quarter.
Reid did say his first-stringers, including No. 1 QB Donovan McNabb, will play three quarters tonight after playing most of the first half in last week’s 23-15 loss at Indianapolis as 3½-point road favorite. Also, backup quarterback Kevin Kolb, who has been sidelined with an injury, will see his first preseason action as he leads the offense in the fourth quarter tonight.
Jacksonville has dropped its first two exhibition games by a combined four points, losing 12-9 at Miami as a three-point road underdog then falling 24-23 to Tampa Bay last week as a three-point home favorite. Because this is the team’s third game in 11 days, Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio said his starters, including QB David Garrard, won’t be on the field very long tonight, though he wasn’t specific beyond that. Once Garrard departs, look for veteran backup Todd Bouman to take over, followed by rookie Paul Smith.
Philadelphia has now lost three straight August contest (0-3 ATS) dating to Week 4 of last year. The Eagles, who have had just one winning preseason in Reid’s decade-long tenure as coach, are just 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four preseason home games, including a 27-25 loss to New England as a three-point favorite two weeks ago.
The Jaguars are looking to avoid their first losing preseason since Del Rio took over as coach in 2003. Despite the loss in Miami in Week 1, they’re still 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven exhibition road games, and they’re 3-0-1 ATS in their last four as a preseason pup. Finally, Jacksonville has won and covered three straight Week 3 games in August.
The over is 12-6 in Jacksonville’s last 18 preseason games, but three of its last four on the road have stayed low. The Eagles have topped the total in nine of their last 11 preseason contests, including both this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE and OVER
St. Louis (1-1 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Bengals likely will be without starting quarterback Carson Palmer once again when they host the Rams, who also will be missing their top passer when they visit Paul Brown Stadium.
St. Louis fell 20-13 to Atlanta as a 2½-point home underdog a week ago, with starting QB Marc Bulger on the sidelines nursing a broken pinkie on his throwing hand. With Bulger out of this one, the Rams again turn to veteran Kyle Boller who will lead the first-team offense through the entire first half and possibly into the third quarter. Behind Boller are rookie Keith Null and veteran Brock Berlin, who are competing for the No. 3 job.
Palmer injured his ankle in a Week 1 loss at New Orleans and sat out last Thursday’s game at New England, which Cincinnati won 7-6 as a 6½-point road underdog. He won’t play tonight, leaving the starting QB chores to J.T. O’Sullivan, who has completed 79 percent of his passes with two TDs and no picks this month. Coach Marvin Lewis didn’t reveal how long his starters will play, but expect Palmer’s brother, Jordan, to see action under center in the second half.
St. Louis dropped to 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog with last week’s loss to Atlanta, and despite upsetting the Jets in New York in Week 1, the Rams are just 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS in preseason roadies since 2002.
Cincinnati has been the picture of preseason mediocrity since Lewis took over in 2003, splitting 26 games while going 14-12 ATS. Last year, the Bengals went 0-2 SU and ATS at home in August, and they’re 1-3 SU and ATS the last four years in Week 3 dress-rehearsals.
The Bengals have now stayed under the total in four consecutive preseason games, but the “over” is 3-0 in the Rams’ three exhibition road contests since the start of last year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
Miami (2-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Dolphins gun for their sixth consecutive preseason victory when they head up state to face the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay held on for a 24-23 win at Jacksonville on Saturday, cashing as a three-point underdog. Veteran quarterbacks Byron Leftwich and Luke McCown, who are locked in a battle for the No. 1 job, are each slated to play about 1½ quarters tonight, both with the first-string offense. Rookie coach Raheem Morris said Leftwich will get the start followed by McCown, who threw two TD passes against the Jaguars. Rookie Josh Freeman will play the fourth quarter.
Miami swept its two preseason home games, beating Jacksonville 12-9 as a three-point favorite and Carolina 27-17 last week as a 2½-point chalk, moving to 5-0 SU and ATS in exhibition play since a 17-6 home loss to Tampa Bay in coach Tony Sparano’s debut last August. Sparano said QB Chad Pennington will start tonight and play until midway through the third quarter, with the majority of the remaining starters finishing the quarter. Chad Henne will replace Pennington and finish the game, leaving rookie QB Pat White without any reps under center.
The Buccaneers are on a 7-3 SU and ATS run in preseason action, they’re 9-3 (8-4 ATS) in their last 12 at Raymond James Stadium in August and they’ve cashed in four straight as a preseason chalk. On the downside, Tampa Bay is just 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in Week 3 over the last five summers. However, the one victory came in Miami in 2007 when the Bucs topped the Dolphins 31-28 as a two-point underdog.
The Dolphins scored outright upsets in their two preseason road tilts last year, and they’re 4-1 ATS as an underdog in August since 2007.
The visitor has won the last three meetings in this annual preseason rivalry (3-0 ATS), and the Bucs are 5-1-1 ATS in the last six August clashes.
The over is 7-2 in Tampa Bay’s last nine exhibition contests (2-0 this year). Conversely, the under is 7-2 in Miami’s last eight in August, with last week’s high-scoring affair against Carolina snapping a 5-0 preseason “under” stretch. Finally, the under is 6-2 in the last eight preseason matchups between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (63-64) at Boston (73-53)
The Red Sox send rookie Junichi Tazawa (2-2, 3.57 ERA) to the mound at Fenway Park looking to complete a four-game sweep over the White Sox, who counter with lefty John Danks (11-8, 3.85).
Boston got two homers from David Ortiz on Wednesday, including a walk-off shot in the ninth that curled around Pesky Pole to give the Red Sox a 3-2 win. Boston has won eight of the last nine meetings with Chicago at Fenway Park and 14 of the last 17 clashes overall.
As a team, the White Sox are on slides of 5-16 on the road, 2-12 on the road against right-handed starters, 16-40 on the road against winning teams and 1-6 against A.L. East squads. Boston is riding streaks of 7-2 overall, 13-2 as a favorite, 46-16 against the A.L. Central, 38-16 as a home chalk and 36-15 on Thursdays.
Danks has been sharp lately, going 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA in his last three starts. On Saturday he held the Orioles to one run on three hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-1 victory, and over his last three outings he’s allowed just four runs in 21 2/3 innings. Chicago is 0-3 in his three career outings against Boston, including a 5-1 loss last year when he allowed two runs in seven innings. However, the White Sox are 6-1 in Danks’ last seven outings against A.L. East opponents.
Tazawa is making just his fourth career start, but was magnificent on Saturday against the rival Yankees, blanking them through six innings as the Red Sox got the easy 14-1 win. He’s enjoyed Fenway so far, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA.
When Danks takes the hill, Chicago is on “under” runs of 10-4 overall, 8-2 on Thursdays, 5-1 when he’s on the road and 5-2 when he’s a ‘dog. As a team, the White Sox are on a plethora of “under” streaks that include 12-4 on the road, 15-6-1 against winning teams, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 7-1 overall and 9-1 on the road against right-handers. On the opposite side, Boston is riding “over” runs of 11-3 at home, 5-1 on Thursdays, 4-0 against southpaws, 14-4 as a favorite and 8-3 against teams with losing road records.
Finally, the under has been the play in this series in five of the last seven overall and 10 of the last 15 in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
DUNKEL
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
The Reds look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is 2-6 in its last 8 games as a favorite. Cincinnati is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+145)
Game 901-902: NY Mets at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 14.372; Florida (Sanchez) 15.277
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-220); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-220); Under
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Game 903-904: Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Lehr) 14.822; Milwaukee (Bush) 14.394
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+145); Over
Game 905-906: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 14.743; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.807
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-320); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-320); Under
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Game 907-908: Washington at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martin) 14.313; Cubs (Wells) 15.496
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-220); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-220); N/A
Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 15.430; Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.339
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-145); Over
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Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 15.219; Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.928
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-195); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+185); Under
Game 913-914: San Diego at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 14.995; Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.374
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+230); Over
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Game 915-916: Arizona at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 14.293; San Francisco (Martinez) 15.327
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); Under
Game 917-918: Texas at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Nippert) 16.958; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.068
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+220); Under
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Game 919-920: Cleveland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Laffey) 16.944; Baltimore (Hernandez) 15.702
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+115); Under
Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.479; Boston (Tazawa) 15.227
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); Under
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Game 923-924: Kansas City at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 14.629; Seattle (Fister) 15.779
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145); Under
Game 925-926: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 14.016; LA Angels (Santana) 15.569
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-175); Under
WNBA
Phoenix at Los Angeles
The Mercury look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 games when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Phoenix is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+4)
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Game 601-602: San Antonio at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 108.899; Indiana 115.102
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 150
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+7); Under
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Game 603-604: Atlanta at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.980; Detroit 118.186
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 5; 172
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 167 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Over
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Game 605-606: Connecticut at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 108.306; Seattle 115.739
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 7 1/2; 140
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 4; 144
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-4); Under
Game 607-608: Phoenix at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 113.734; Los Angeles 115.867
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 171
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+4); Over
NFL
Jacksonville at Philadelphia
The preseason continues Thursday night with the Eagles hosting the Jaguars Philadelphia is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7)
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Game 251-252: Jacksonville at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 120.617; Philadelphia 130.164
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 37
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7); Over
Game 253-254: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.205; Cincinnati 119.684
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+2 1/2); Over
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Game 255-256: Miami at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.040; Tampa Bay 123.858
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 32 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2 1/2); Under
Pigskin Prophet
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS vs PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
TAKE: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
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A pair of angry coaches on winless teams! Jaguars (0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) coach Jack Del Rio has run a tough camp, seemingly embarrassed by last year's 5-11 campaign. A lot of good the tough camp has done! The offense was anemic in the opener, with 66 yards rushing in a 12-9 loss at Miami. The short passing offense ended up with no TDs and 2 picks. They then lost at home to rebuilding Tampa Bay, 24-23. The offense was better, but the defense was gouged for 159 rushing yards. The QB rotation has D! avid Garrard, Todd Bouman and Paul Smith and they haven't had any kind of ground game with a weak offensive line. The lone bright spot has been WR Troy Williamson, giving the Jags something they've been missing for years: a deep threat. Williamson, a first-round bust in Minnesota, caught two deep passes from David Garrard and finished with 147 yards receiving. Del Rio is 18-8 SU/16-9-1 ATS in preseason despite this 0-2 start. Andy Reid must be one angry coach as his Eagles (0-2 SU/ATS) have looked awful in preseason, a lot of sloppy play, turnovers and penalties. They rolled up 420 yards (304 passing) against the Patriots, but lost 27-25 with 98 yards ! of penalties and lousy special teams, missing 2 FGs and allowing a pun t return for a TD. That was the same day they announced the signing of Mike Vick. Week 2 was worse, a 23-15 loss at Indy with 2 more turnovers and 12 penalties for 87 yards. Rusty? Or distracted by the Vick drama? The Eagles have good QB depth with Donovan McNabb, A.J. Feeley, Kevin Kolb and Vick. Kolb could make his preseason debut vs. Jacksonville after sitting out the first two games with a sprained knee ligament. Vick is also eligible to play. The offensive line hasn't played together at all because four of the five have injuries: Center Jamaal Jackson was the only offensive line starter from the projected top group to take the field in Indianapolis is. But right guard Stacy Andrews might make his preseason debut here. His rehab has gone well, though he is not that far removed from the surgery. LT Jason Peters is still recovering from re-straining a quad. Given how much sub guards Max Jean-Gilles and Nick Cole have played - Shawn Andrews went down for the season in Week 2 last year - it was disappointing they didn't get better push against the Colts. Andy Reid assessed his team's pass rush as "hot and cold," in the absence of Trent Cole and Darren Howard. The Eagles already have lost starting MLB Stewart Bradley (knee). Defensive end Trent Cole, the Eagles' best pass rusher, hasn't played preseason but is expected to be ready for the opener and could even play Thursday against Jacksonville. Reid admitted that! because of injuries he didn't have as good an idea as he would like about his team: "They haven't played together, and I'm worried about that. We have to get guys back so they can work a little bit together." Reid is 16-26 SU, 19-23 ATS in preseason. He has a better all around team and QB rotation against this opponent.
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Projected Score: Eagles 20, Jaguars 10
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ST. LOUIS RAMS vs CINCINNATI BENGALS
TAKE: ST. LOUIS RAMS
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New Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo (former DC of the NY Giants) is a hard driving coach who has put the players through a rigorous training camp. The Rams (1-1 Su/ATS) lost QB Marc Bulger to a small fracture in the pinky finger of his throwing hand last week. He will miss this game, meaning Kyle Boller will start. The rotation is now Boller, Brock Berlin and rookie QB Keith Null. They rolled up 193 rushing yards in the opener, a 23-20 at the NY Jets, despite allowing 340 yards, then struggled without Bulger in a 20-13 loss to Atlanta with 283 total yards and 2 turnovers. The defense has been awful the last few years and they have a lot of roo! kies such as James Laurinaitis, DT Dorell Scott and CB Bradley Fletcher. They were gouged on the ground in Week 2, giving up 162 rush yards to Atlanta. WR Donnie Avery, the team's No. 1 wide receiver, will be out at least a month with a foot injury. When Torry Holt was released in the offseason, Avery became the top wideout on the depth chart. The No. 1 unit stayed on the field throughout the first half, a total of five series. It produced a mere field goal on four trips into Falcons territory. RB Steven Jackson picked up 10 yards on three carries, but the trio of backs fighting for the job behind him - Samkon Gado, Antonio Pittman and Kenneth Darby - produced a meager 50 yards on 24 attempts. This is the first home game of the Bengals (1-1 SU/ATS). QB Carson Palmer didn't play last week because of a right ankle injury. He is questionable for this game. QB! s J.T. O 'Sullivan and Jordan Palmer ran the show, a 7-6 win at New England. O'Sullivan completed 10 of 13 passes for 141 yards. Jordan Palmer, Carson's younger brother, went 2-for-7 for 45 yards. The running game had 173 yards and will likely run at the young St. Louis defense, which could keep the score down again. The Bengals are 2-0 under the total in preseason, scoring only 7 points in each game. TE Ben Utecht (concussion), WR Antonio Chatman (ankle) and TE Matt Sherry (shoulder) did not suit up last week. Cincy coach Marvin Lewis is 8-6 SU/9-5 ATS since 2006 in preseason. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS the last eight years in Week 3 of preseason. With two starting QBs out, don't look for much scoring.
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Projected Score: Bengals 14, Rams 13
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MIAMI DOLPHINS vs TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
TAKE: MIAMI DOLPHINS
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Miami coach Tony Sporano is 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in preseason (and 5-1 under the total). The Dolphins (2-0 SU/ATS) have looked sharp, with a 12-9 win over the Jaguars and a 27-17 win over Carolina. Both those were at home, so this is their first road trip. QBs Chad Pennington and Chad Henne are an excellent one-two preseason punch, while rookie QB Pat White has played a little. Miami's run defense has been great, allowing 66 yards (3.1 ypc) in the opener, then holding a strong Carolina ground game to 98 yards, just 3.8 yards per rush. The Dolphins' depth at outside linebacker is a concern: Jason Taylor has a family illness issue, Joey Porter is nursing a sore toe and Matt Roth (groin) hasn't practiced. Miami has rushed for 118 and 141 yards in two games. Tampa Bay (1-1 SU/ATS) has new looks everywhere, starting with Head Coach Raheem Morris. They have virtually no QB experience with rookie QB Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson, Byron Leftwich and Luke McCown. They are off a 24-23 win at Jacksonville, but starting QB Leftwich was shaky (6-of-12, 61 yards). In the opener, they gave the Titans a run before losing 27-20, but had just 256 total yard! s. The running game has been impressive, with 138 yards (5.3 y! pc) in W eek 1 and 159 yards in Week 2 behind Kareem Huggins, B.J. Askew and Clifton Smith. Leftwich and McCown are fighting for the top job, and the coach said he will keep only 3 QBs, so someone will be out of a job. Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU/ATS the last 2+ years in preseason. Their wide outs have been below average and banged up, with Antonio Bryant (knee) and Mike Clayton (hamstring) not 100%. Tampa Bay won 7-6 in the preseason opener last August. Miami's impressive run defense and far better QB play should lead the way to a win.
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Projected Score: Dolphins 17, Bucs 13
Vernon Croy
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Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Royals are just 3-14 in their last 17 games against an AL West division opponent. The Royals are just 0-4 in their last 4 games in game one of a series and they are just 2-6 in Kyle Davies (4-9, 6.12 ERA) last 8 starts against a team with a winning record. Doug Fister (1-0, 2.21 ERA) has allowed just 15 hits over his last 3 starts and just 5 earned runs. The Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 home games against a right hand starter and the Royals are just 5-16 in their last 21 trips to Seattle. Take the Seattle Mariners as my MLB Free Play for Thursday night.
Frank Jordan
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St Louis Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
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Cincinnati is looking for a bounce back year this year with a healthy Carson Palmer and for now a pleased Chad Ochocinco. St. Louis has some decent offensive parts but defense is where they are lacking, but have well in the preseason as they are 1-1. In this one look for Cincinnati, who is coming off a win, to win another game and get going for the regular season. Play Cincinnati
Cajun Sports
Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Cleveland Indians
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The Cleveland Indians head east for a four-game series with the Baltimore Orioles before their final three-game series with Detroit on this road swing. They opened this trip with a three-game series in Kansas City taking two out of the three games and look to continue that momentum on the East Coast.
Baltimore just completed a nine-game road trip of their own by winning the final game of a three-game set in Minnesota although they did lose that series and were 4-5 overall during the trip.
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Both of these teams are ranked in the Top 10 in hitting with the Orioles ranked 6 with a batting average of .268 averaging 4.6 runs per game and the Indians are ranked 9 with a batting average of .267 scoring 5.1 runs per game.
The Achilles Heel for both these teams has come on the bump with the Orioles ranked 30 with an ERA of 5.07, opponents averaging .285 at the plate against them. The Indians aren’t much better they rank 28 with an ERA of 5.02 and their opponents are averaging .276 at the plate.
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Cleveland will send Aaron Laffey to the bump with his 6-2 record and ERA of 3.63 in all starts this season including 2-2 with an ERA of 5.81 on the road. Laffey has shown solid improvement over his last three outings going 2-0 with an ERA of 2.84 and the Indians are a perfect 3-0 behind him over that span. He and his teammates will face an Orioles team that is 42-86 (-34.2) during the second half of the season the last two years and 9-28 (-22.2) in home games during the month of August the last three seasons.
Baltimore will send David Hernandez to the hill with his 4-6 record and ERA of 4.52 including 2-3 at home with an ERA of 4.23. His last three outings have not gone as well as his opponent with a 1-2 mark and an ERA of 5.62 over that span. He will face an Indians team that is 31-17 (+16.7) in road games versus AL teams averaging 4.7 or less runs per game during the second half of the season, 30-20 (+15.4) during the month of August the last two seasons and 17-7 (+12.8) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Hernandez’s Orioles are 25-48 (-20.6) in home games versus and AL starting pitcher whose ERA of 4.0 or better over the last three seasons.
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We have an all systems go on the Indians as we back the better starter and have strong technical support so take the odds with the visitor as the grab Game One of this four-game set in Baltimore on Thursday evening.
Graded Selection: 2* Cleveland Indians 5 Baltimore Orioles 4
Matt Fargo
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Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Over 9.5
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Baltimore is back home following a nine-game roadtrip where it went 4-5 and more importantly for our situation, it went 7-2 favoring the ‘Under’. The Orioles are averaging 4.1 rpg on the road which is 21st in baseball and their .245 road average is good for 22nd in the Majors. Playing at home is a different story however as they average a full rpg more which is 10th highest in baseball and their .294 average at home tops all other teams. Cleveland won two of three in Kansas City while averaging 5.3 rpg in the process and the Indians have been a solid offensive team away from home. They are averaging 5.6 rpg on the road which is ties for the second highest mark in baseball and they are hitting .278 which is good for fourth best in the bigs. The Indians send lefty Aaron Laffey to the mound and he has been pretty solid this season, posting a 3.63 ERA. The problem is that he has posted a 1.42 WHIP along with that and that is an issue as he is allowing a significant number of baserunners. That comes with bad control and a low number of strikeouts meaning batter are making contact and if not, they are walking. He has a 43/38 K/BB ratio which is well below average for the Major League level. Laffey has a 5.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road. Baltimore goes with David Hernandez and it has been a very inconsistent season for him. He had a stretch of four straight quality starts but in five games since, he has a 6.56 ERA and 1.89 WHIP covering 23.1 innings. He has a 16/14 K/BB ratio which is not good and is pretty much in line with his season ratio of 39/29. Hernandez has a horrible 1.77 WHIP at home and he faces an Indians offense that is hitting .296 against right-handed pitching over its last 10 games. The ‘Over’ is 8-1-2 in the Indians last 11 road games against a right-handed starter. The Indians are also 33-11 to the ‘Over’ when playing as a road underdog this season. For the Orioles, they are 20-9 to the ‘Over’ in their last 29 games against starting pitchers that average 2.75 or more walks per game.
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3* Over Cleveland Indians/Baltimore Orioles
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
The Redsox have won the first 3 games of this series and go for the 4 game sweep tonight.They do qualify in a system where home favorites are actually under .500.Play against home favorites of less than -140 off a one run home favored win if they scored 4 or less runs vs an opponent who scored less than 2 runs,if both teams had less than 10 hits.The Whitesox have J.Danks going tonight and he has a 7-5 road record with a decent 3.72 era.Over his last 3 starts he has been tight with a 1.66 era.Tonight he faces Redsox righty Tazawa.Boston has won both of his home starts,however he has been far from dominant overall in his few starts.Chicago is a slight dog in this game,that they are sure to want.They are well aware that if they lose they will drop two games under.500 for the year.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: Los Angeles –1½ over Oakland
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The Angels go from battling the bats of the Tigers to the arms of the Athletics. With that in mind would favor right-hander Ervin Santana in his quest to secure a division flag for the left coast elite. Los Angeles is 24-8 versus a losing baseball team and 7-1 with Santana versus Oakland. Finally, the A’s are 14-52 on the road versus a winning club.
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St. Louis +2' at CINCINNATI
Another comp play winner on Wednesday as the LA Angels come through. We are now 25-10-1 our last 36 comp play selections.
Preseason NFL action this Thursday night, as we will take any points available with the St. Louis Rams as they head to Cincinnati for a date with the Bengals.
Both Marc Bulger, and Carson Palmer are expected to be on the sidelines watching the action once again, so we must take a closer look at the back-ups in this game, and we are liking the Rams rotation a little more with the experienced Kyle Boller leading the way.
Rookie Keith Null, and veteran Brock Berlin are vying for the # 3 spot, so both should be itching to get on the field to show the coaches what they can/can't do.
Cincy will go with JT O'Sullivan, Jordan Palmer will also see action in this home contest. The Bengals did pull off the 7-6 upset last week at New England, but obviously did not show much offense along the way.
The Rams have at least been scoring points this preseason, and we like them to put up enough to spring the road upset on Thursday.
Cincinnati went 0-2 both straight up, and against the spread last preseason at home, and they are just 1-3 both straight up, and against the spread in Week 3 of the preseason the last 4 Augusts.
With the Rams trying to impress for new head coach Steve Spagnuolo, we will grab the underdog plus the points in this one.
Play on St. Louis.
1♦ ST. LOUIS
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO -135
Got the FREE winner on Wednesday thanks to the Mariners getting it done at home against the A's. Today I'll hand you another comp winner with the Giants as they host the D'Backs.
Definitely playing San Francisco in this one as the Giants have taken the first two in this series and are poised for the three-game sweep. San Francisco scored three in the bottom of the eighth inning on Wednesday and got the 4-3 victory at home. Tonight won't be that close.
The Giants have won two straight now after that disastrous three-game losing streak in Colorado. They've regrouped and continue to beat up on the D'Backs like they've done all season. San Francisco has won eight of the 11 meetings this season and four of the five played in Northern California. Go back a few seasons and you'll see the Giants are 43-20 in the last 63 played in San Francisco against Arizona.
Arizona comes into this one having lost nine of their last 10 overall and 11 of their last 12 road games. They are on further slides of 18-38 as a 'dog, 8-21 as a road 'dog and 17-44 on the road against winning teams.
The D'Backs have Yusmeiro Petit (2-8, 6.06 ERA) on the mound today, and this guy has been a disaster lately, going 0-3 in his last three appearances with a 7.07 ERA. He's allowed three runs or more in six of his last 10 outings and last year in September he went to San Francisco and allowed five runs on eight hits in just 2.2 innings of a 6-2 loss.
Joe Martinez (3-1, 5.73) makes the start for the Giants, just his fifth ever. Other than Sunday's start at Colorado (five earned runs in five innings), he's been solid this month, previously allowing seven runs in 14.1 innings, beating the Mets and Astros.
Better team, more to play for. Go with San Francisco in this one.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Karl Garrett
White Sox at BOSTON -115
G-Man got it done with another free play last night, as Texas-NY Yankees did go OVER the total. That is 2 in a row for free, and for Thursday I have another free play total winner.
Take Chicago-Boston to go UNDER the total in the last of the battle of the sox this Thursday night at Fenway.
Last night, a solid 3-2 pitchers duel broke out to end a bit of a Boston OVER trend that had been building.
With Wednesday's UNDER, these teams have now played LOW 7-2-1 their last 10 series meetings dating back to last year.
Chicago is now on a 12-4 UNDER run their last 16 road games.
John Danks is a solid 6-3 on the road this season with a respectable ERA of 3.72, while Boston's Junichi Tazawa has been a find for the BoSox, going 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in his first 3 big league starts.
Look for the pitchers to control the hitters once again tonight, and for Chicago and Boston to hold UNDER the posted total.
4♦ UNDER
Dominic Fazzini
Oakland at L.A. ANGELS -185
Scored a win on my complimentary selection Wednesday with the Dodgers' 6-1 victory over Colorado. That gives me 17 wins in my last 26 picks, including five of the last seven! And there's no slowing down now with a run-line play on the Angels tonight!
Los Angeles starter Ervin Santana (7-6, 6.13 ERA) seems to have finally gotten on track, with a 4-0 record and 3.33 ERA in his last four outings. The right-hander allowed three runs and seven hits in six innings Saturday in a 7-3 victory at Toronto, a city the Angels have trouble winning in.
Santana has owned the A's in his career, going 10-1 with a 1.36 ERA in 14 starts, including 6-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his last eight outings. He gave up just one run and three hits against Oakland on July 16.
A's starter Trevor Cahill (6-12, 4.86) is winless in his last six outings, although he did pitch well in his last start, allowing two runs and five hits in seven innings Saturday against Detroit.
The rookie right-hander has faced the Angels twice this season with no positive results, going 0-0 with a 4.66 ERA.
Los Angeles leads the season series with Oakland 6-3 and might be rejuvenated after Torii Hunter's fiery speech to his teammates after the Angels had lost five of six. Los Angeles responded with a 4-2 victory Wednesday over Detroit, and I think that is going to carry over into this series, especially if Santana keeps pitching like he has been. Take the Angels on the run line.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS –1½
Jeff Benton
Now on a 32-18 free-play run, including 6-2 over the past eight days, after Wednesday’s winner with the Marlins on the run line over the Mets. For Thursday, I’ll roll the dice with the Padres as a huge underdog at Atlanta.
This is a great value play for this reason: While Braves starter Javier Vazquez has had an outstanding season and ranks among the league-leaders in ERA (3.14), WHIP (1.07) and strikeouts (186 in 169 innings), the bottom line is Atlanta only cashes in 50 percent of the time the veteran right-hander pitches. The Braves are just 13-12 in Vazquez’s 25 starts, including just 5-8 at home (where Vazquez is 3-7 despite a 3.31 ERA).
In fact, Vazquez is coming off back-to-back home losses to the Phillies (4-1) and Marlins (5-3), and he didn’t pitch very well in either game, allowing a combined nine runs and 16 hits in 13 2/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Padres starter Clayton Richard has been very solid since being traded to San Diego from Chicago in the Jake Peavy deal. He’s 3-0 with a 3.67 ERA in five starts, four of which the Padres have won. That includes 4-0 win over the Cardinals on Friday in which Richard scattering five hits in six innings, shutting down Pujols, Holliday and the powerful Redbirds. And if you go back to his final two starts with the White Sox, Richard has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings, with his teams going a combined 5-2.
Tonight, Richard is facing a Braves lineup that is struggling against left-handed pitching lately (.225 average last 10 games). Bottom line: Would I be surprised if Vazquez dominates San Diego tonight? Not at all. At the same time, given Atlanta’s lack of success behind him (especially at home) and given the fact the Braves have already lost the first two games of this series as a big chalk, to be getting this kind of plus price with a quality starter like Richard, I’ll take my chances with a small value play on San Diego.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Jim Feist
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Over 8½
The Phillies just went on a 4-2-1 run over the total, not surprising for the top offensive team in the National League. That included the opener of this series, a 6-4 loss to the Pirates. They will like playing against Pittsburgh starter Charlie Morton (3-6, 5.21 ERA), who has a 9.49 ERA his last three starts, walking 8 in 12 innings! He has more walks than Ks during that stretch. Pittsburgh is an easy home run park, so look for more runs than oddsmakers expect. Play the Phillies/Pirates Over the total.