Wunderdog
Miami at Tampa Bay
Pick: UNDER 36
The Dolphins and Bucs meet in a long-standing preseason rivalry that has seen 23 games played, with Miami holding the advantage at 14-9. These teams are both still exploring starting QB's which should be the key to both teams' seasons. These teams historically have played defensive battles in these games. The last 12 played have seen the under go 10-2, and the winning team had 17 or less points in nine of the ten that went under. There is added reason to believe these teams will play low scoring here, besides the history. These teams meet during the regular season and it isn't likely they are going to tip their hand or show anything special. Instead, they should keep things basic and conservative. In addition the Bucs are 26-11 UNDER the past 15 years in the preseason when instilled as a favorite. I like this one to go UNDER the total.
DAVE COKIN
CLEVELAND INDIANS / BALTIMORE ORIOLES
TAKE: CLEVELAND INDIANS
Aaron Laffey is not nearly as reliable on the road as he's been at home for the Indians. But the lefty is clearly in better form than Baltimore rookie David Hernandez, who's been getting knocked around lately. With the Indians currently listed as the dog in this hookup, they're the side to play.
LT Profits
Chicago White Sox at Boston
The Boston Red Sox have taken the first three games of this four-game series to drop the Chicago White Sox below .500 (63-64), and we look for Boston to finish off the sweep tonight at this rather modest price.
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At first glance, it appears that the White Sox have the pitching edge tonight, and that perception is the very reason this price is so low. A closer look however reveals that may actually not be the case, which would give the Red Sox great value here.
Junichi Tazawa has made just three starts, but he has been terrific in his two starts here at Fenway park, where he has allowed a total of one earned run in 11 innings with both starts resulting in Boston victories. He should be tough on a Chicago lineup that has never seen him before, and that is batting just .239 over the last 10 games vs. pitchers that they are more familiar with.
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Now John Danks is 11-8 with a 3.85 ERA for the White Sox, but he has not had particularly good success vs. Boston, allowing 11 earned runs and 23 baserunners in 16.1 innings over three career starts against them. As if that is not bad enough, he is facing a red-hot Red Sox offense that is averaging a whopping 7.70 runs over the last 10 games while batting a robust .302 as a team vs. left-handed pitchers.
Finally, the Red Sox are now 16-5 in the last 21 head-to-head meetings including 8-1 at home, and we look for that dominance to continue tonight.
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Pick: Red Sox -120
Alex Smart
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Over 8.5
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Yusmeiro Petit the Arizona DBacks starter is is 0-3 with a 7.07 ERA in his past three outings. Meanwhile, his SF Giants counterpart Joe Martinez owns a ugly 6.43 ERA at home in AT&T Park this season. Considering the pitching matchup, Im betting on a rare offensive explosion from two usually inconsistent offenses. Final notes & Key Trends: Over is 5-0 in Petits last 5 starts vs. National League West. Over is 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 starts overall. ....Play OVER 8.5
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -117
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Bottom Line: Danks has never beat the Red Sox (0-3 with an ERA of 6.06) and the White Sox have really struggled against Bean Town, losing 6 of 7 and 14 of the last 17. Tazawa is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA at home and he should be very confident here after going 6 scoreless against the Yankees last time out. Good price for the Sox at home where they are 42-20 this season.
John Ryan
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St Louis Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Under 34
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Bengals/Rams set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that 35 or fewer points will be scored in this game. This is certainly agme that is far different than normal for week 3 of the pre-season. More times than not, the week 3 games are where coaching staffs want to get as accurate a team evaluation as possible. They set-up their lineups accordingly so that both units are facing the top units of the opponent. Yet, in this game, it will be a game of backups starting with QB. Rams starter Bulger is out with broken finger and Bengals QB Palmer is out with a high ankle sprain. So, you have Bengals backup O’Sullivan going up against Rams backup Boller. Rams HC Spagnuolo at the helm, defense will be his first priority. They have allowed 20 points in each of their first two games, but it was clear that in game 1 they were working on pass schemes and assignments even in obvious running situations. The opposite was true in the 2nd game against Atlanta where they focused nearly 80% of plays on the run. Tonight will be a thorough combination of the two simulating a week 1 contest. The Bengals are a difficult team to read and they could easily be a playoff contender or a miserable 4-12. The one consistency so far has been a solid defense with a strong depth at nearly all back-up positions. So, this game clearly points to solid defense that will dominate offensive schemes run by back-up QBs. Take the UNDER.
Tom Freese
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 40-19 their last 59 home games vs. righty starters and they are 35-16 their last 51 games as home favorites. The Giants are 20-7 their last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record. Arizona is 17-44 their last 61 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Arizona is 1-9 their last 10 games vs. righty starters. The Diamondbacks are 7-19 in the last 26 starts made by Yusmeiro Petit. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO
Scott Rickenbach
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars
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We faded the Eagles right here AGAIN last week (and it AGAIN paid off) as Philadelphia AGAIN lost outright as a small favorite. Once again, in Week Three, the Eagles are favored and, once again, we’ll grab the value with the points (as of Tuesday morning: a full +7) on the other side! As noted previously, the Eagles training camp has already been ravaged by injuries. First it was linebacker Stewart Bradley (a starter!) and rookie tight end Cornelius Ingram. They were each lost to season-ending ACL injuries. Then, QB Kevin Kolb and defensive end Trent Cole were each lost to injury and already missed valuable pre-season time.
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It’s truly a mess in Philly but, as of Tuesday morning, they’re still laying seven points in this match-up. That’s offering a lot of line value to the Jaguars. Note that Philadelphia has already failed to cover each of their first two preseason games and, in Week Three games, they are 2-7 ATS their last 9. As for Jacksonville, note that they are 10-4 ATS in the 14 Week Three preseason games in their franchise history. The Eagles Andy Reid is now 15-27 in preseason action after last week’s loss. The Eagles injury list is still much more extensive than the Jaguars and Jacksonville’s two losses this preseason have come by a combined four points. Philadelphia may win this game but we challenge them to win by more than a touchdown! Consider a small play on the JAGUARS on Thursday evening.
EZWINNERS
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Oakland A's @ Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -1.5
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The Angels starting pitcher Ervin Santana is now finding his groove after some rough outings when he first returned from injury. In his last three starts Santana is 3-0 with an ERA of 2.57 and this is a great matchup for Santana because he has been lights out against the A's. Santana is 1-0 this season against Oakland as he pitched eight strong innings only allowing one run and he is 10-1 lifetime against the A's with an ERA of only 1.35. Oakland's starting pitcher Trevor Cahill is an average starting pitcher. Cahill has pitched well enough to win some games if he was on a team that could actually provide him with some run support. Cahil's problem is that he walks way too many betters and that will get him in trouble against an LA Angels lineup that is loaded with .300 hitters. The Angels have won five out of the last six meetings between these two teams and I expect them to pick up the win here. Play on the Angels on the runline.
Spartan
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Oakland A's @ Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -1.5
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The A's send out Trevor Cahill, 6-12, 4.86. To be fair I feel Cahill has pitched better than his record suggests but he gets a lousy draw here in my view. Angels are a tough hitting club all up and down the order and are ready to beat somebody up a little. Tonight veteran Ervin Santana gets the call and he has now prevailed in 4 straight outings and seems to be looking like the All Star hurler we remember from 08. It also does not hurt our case on bit that Santana has owned this Oakland club throughout his career, big time, going 10-1 and sporting a crazy 1.35 era. I'm saying the Angels here on the run line +105.
Ron Raymond
Houston / St.Louis: UNDER 7.5
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Keys to selection: When HOUSTON played as an Underdog - During Current Season - Lost Last Game by 1 Runs or Less; The UNDER is 7-3-1 for the Astros in this role this year. PVI Rating: 31% (on the UNDER coming through)
Arizona / San Francisco: UNDER 8.5
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Keys to selection: When SAN FRANCISCO Played as home team as a Favorite - During Last 2 Years - With 1 Under or More - Won Last Game by 1 Runs or More - With SU Record of 3 Win 4 Lost in L7G; The UNDER is 7-4-1 for the Giants in this role. PVI Rating: 58% (on the UNDER coming through)
Randall the Handle
Los Angeles +1.28 over COLORADO
Huge value on the Dodgers here, as they’ve absolutely owned both Jorge De La Rosa and the Rockies. The Dodgers have beaten the Rocks 11 of 14 games and De La Rosa is 0-4 with a 7.99 ERA in five career starts against L.A., including 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA in two this season, both Rockies losses. Dodgers hitters are batting a career .379 against De La Rosa after getting a combined 42 hits against him in 117 AB’s. Kemp is 6 out of 13, Man-Ram is 3-8, Loney is 7-11 and Hudson is 3-7 with two walks. De La Rosa is hot with a 10-1 record over his last 11 starts to go along with a 3.55 ERA. However, the Dodgers will come in knowing they can hit him and he’ll come in knowing that too. Besides, this guy is a career stiff that’s having an incredible year. Guys like De La Rosa do not win 11 of 12 starts, guys like Steve Carlton and Bob Gibson do. De La Rosa has been hit hard in two of his four August starts and has also been tagged for six jacks in those four August starts. Vincente Padilla makes his Dodger debut and any pitcher going from the AL to the NL has a chance. Padilla has good stuff, he’s just a bit of a head case and therefore the Rangers let him go. He’ll want to prove himself in a big way here and one would think the Dodgers will be a little extra jacked up in support of their new pitcher. Play: Los Angeles +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.97 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings)
The Cubbies simply cannot be trusted at this price. This is a team that has trouble scoring and has proven over and over and over again that they can lose to any team under any circumstance. The Cubbies have three wins in its last nine games and this series is tied 2-2 with Washington winning 15-6 in the opener and losing 9-4 last night. However, last night’s game was tied 2-2 late, as the Cubbies made Livan Hernandez look like Roy Halliday. The Nats battered Randy Wells the only time they saw him this season and they can certainly repeat that. Anyway, the Nats offense is dangerous and while the Cubbies might have an edge on the mound, they take away that advantage because of an offense that can rarely be counted on to produce. The price here definitely makes the Nats worthy of some consideration and when Harden isn’t pitching and the Cubbies are a 2-1 favorite, you can pencil me on the dog every time. Play: Washington +1.97 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.23 over SAN FRANCISCO (1st 5 innings)
Joe Martinez makes just his fifth start and seventh appearance of the year. He has a BAA of .340 to go along with an alarming 1.77 WHIP. At home, in a pitcher’s park, Martinez has an ERA of 6.43 and a BAA of .355. This guy is a 27-yr-old, career minor-leaguer that is filling on for now and he’s not doing the job, nor should he ever be favored by this much over anyone. Despite allowing just one run in six innings Friday against the Astros, Petit was tagged with his eighth loss of the season. Petit bounced back nicely from a very poor outing his last time out. He has losses in five of his last seven starts, but has sprinkled in several nice outings in between his implosions. This guy has very decent stuff and again, he’s thrown several gems this year, including back-to-back shutouts against Pittsburgh and Philly. The chances of the D-Backs getting to Martinez first and taking a lead into the sixth is stronger than the Giants chances of getting to Petit first, thus, the five inning wager. Play Arizona +1.23 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Soccer
UEFA - Europa League Qualifiers 2nd Leg
AUSTRIA WIEN +1.43 over Metalurh Donetsk
Austria Wien or Vienna in English went into the Ukraine a week ago and scored 2 goals, which helped them earn a 2-2 draw and score the all important away goals. Metalurh Donetsk has a lot of work to do if they are to progress in this the “NIT” if you will of European soccer as they travel to Vienna in what will be a very daunting task. They must score goals and prevent them from going in which I don’t see either happening. Domestically they are heading in opposite directions as Austria Wien is red-hot and in first place after beating Sturm Graz on the road this past weekend while Metalurh is in the middle of the Ukrainian league. Because the score in the first leg was 2-2, Austria will still have to be careful and thus will be tremendously focused and ready to beat up on Metalurh. I really can’t see Austria Wien losing here and the price is awfully good. Play: AUSTRIA WIEN +1.43 (Risking 2 units)
VEGAS EXPERTS
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
The Royals are not playing well right now with losses in six of their last seven games and this is a team that averages just 3.6 runs per game on the road this year. The Mariners have cleaned up against losing teams this year (36-27), particularly against those teams with a win percentage below .460 (28-17). KC is a horrible 8-24 in league play this year vs. pitchers with a sub-4.00 ERA. It doesn't help that Royals pitchers have allowed 67 runs in the last 11 games.
Play on: Seattle
John Ryan
St Louis Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Under 34
Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Bengals/Rams set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that 35 or fewer points will be scored in this game. This is certainly agme that is far different than normal for week 3 of the pre-season. More times than not, the week 3 games are where coaching staffs want to get as accurate a team evaluation as possible. They set-up their lineups accordingly so that both units are facing the top units of the opponent. Yet, in this game, it will be a game of backups starting with QB. Rams starter Bulger is out with broken finger and Bengals QB Palmer is out with a high ankle sprain. So, you have Bengals backup O’Sullivan going up against Rams backup Boller. Rams HC Spagnuolo at the helm, defense will be his first priority. They have allowed 20 points in each of their first two games, but it was clear that in game 1 they were working on pass schemes and assignments even in obvious running situations. The opposite was true in the 2nd game against Atlanta where they focused nearly 80% of plays on the run. Tonight will be a thorough combination of the two simulating a week 1 contest. The Bengals are a difficult team to read and they could easily be a playoff contender or a miserable 4-12. The one consistency so far has been a solid defense with a strong depth at nearly all back-up positions. So, this game clearly points to solid defense that will dominate offensive schemes run by back-up QBs. Take the UNDER.
Oakland Athletics vs. LAA Angels
Play: Oakland Athletics
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Oakland as they face Anaheim set to start at 10:25 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 25-14 making 33.7 units since 1997. Play against all AL favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 and is an exceptional offensive team scoring >=5.7 runs/game facing a team with a good bullpen sporting an ERA<=3.75 and with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. Angels are vulnerable noting that they are just 8-13 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. Oakland has been on an extended losing streak of 3 games and 6 of their last 7. They are, however, 12-5 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Yes, it is true that Santana has dominated the A’s, but A’s tarter Cahill has been very good in his own right. He sports a 3.15 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Noteworthy too is the fact that he has NOT allowed a home run in those 3 starts spanning 20 innings pitched. Santana has posted a horrific 9.00 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP in 7 home starts this season. Take Oakland.
Rocketman Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
Jacksonville is 4-0 SU and ATS since 1993 after two or more consecutive losses. Philadelphia is 1-7 SU and ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Jacksonville is allowing only 12 points per game on the road this preseason. Philadelphia is allowing 27 points per game at home during this preseason. Vick is suppose to play tonight for the Eagles but will that actually help them. I'm sure he hasn't learned their system yet and will make mistakes. We'll recommend a small play on Jacksonville tonight!