Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August 5,2010

Marc Lawrence

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers and Padres conclude their four-game N.L. West Division series this evening when Chad Billingsley takes on Kevin Corriea at Chavez Ravine. Billingsley toes the rubber with a spotless 0.00 ERA in his last three starts. He's also 7-1 his last eight team starts versus San Diego, including 3-0 his last three at home. With Corriea winless in both of his starting efforts against Los Angeles this season, look for Corriea to take the hat trick here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

Matt Fargo

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants split their two-game series in Colorado and are now on the east coast to take on the National League East leading Braves. San Francisco has been playing solid baseball as it remains just a game behind the Padres in the National League West. The Giants are 21-6 over their last 27 games and they have made up 6.5 games over the last month when they trailed San Diego by 7.5 games on July 4th. Atlanta is coming off a series win against the Mets but that is nothing special as most teams have been doing that of late. The Braves remain one of the best home teams in the game as they are 36-14 at Turner Field, which is the best home winning percentage in all of baseball. While that is tough to go against, it is that record that is keeping this number is a very good price range for one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. Looking at some of the previous lines and you can see what a bargain this is for Tim Lincecum. He is having another outstanding season as he is 11-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 22 starts with the Giants going 16-6 in those games. Lincecum’s numbers are nearly identical on the road as to those at home yet San Francisco has put together a better record in his road starts as they are 9-2 in 11 games compared to 7-4 in 11 games at AT&T Park. San Francisco has won his last five trips to the mound and against the Braves, Lincecum is 6-1 in his seven career starts while posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He is opposed by Jair Jurrjens who had a great start since returning from the disabled list but has since stumbled over his last two outings where he has allowed nine runs over 13.2 innings. Both of those games resulted in Braves losses but both were on the road. Jurrjens is undefeated at home with the Braves going 5-0 in his five home starts and that is also a driving force in this moneyline. San Francisco has not lost consecutive games since July 1st and 2nd and it is a perfect 7-0 in its last seven games following a loss. Meanwhile, winning has not been contagious for the Braves as they are 0-6 in their last six games following a win. 3* San Francisco Giants

Cajun Sports

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants head east for a long weekend series versus the host Atlanta Braves at the Ted. The opener will be Thursday night and feature Tim Lincecum for the Giants and Jair Jurrjens for the Braves. Lincecum is having another solid season with an 11-4 record and ERA of 3.10 overall including 4-1 on the road and an ERA of 3.14. His last three starts have seen him go 1-0 but the Giants have won all three of those games. Lincecum has had success versus this Braves team posting a record of 6-1 with an ERA of 2.70. Atlanta’s starter Jair Jurrjens is perfect at home with a 3-0 record and an ERA of 1.71 but he is only 1-1 his last three trips to the bump with an ERA of 4.35 in those contests. He has struggled against the Giants over his career with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 2.61. San Francisco has played well during the second half of the season when facing teams with a winning record, they have won ten of twelve in this situation and winner number eleven takes place tonight in the ATL.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* San Francisco Giants 2 Atlanta Braves 1

Rocketman

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox are 22-12 this year in day games. Detroit is 83-101 last 3 years against division opponents. Chicago White Sox have won 8 of their last 10 games overall. Detroit has lost 8 of their last 10 games overall. Chicago White Sox bullpen has a 3.52 ERA overall this year and a 3.16 ERA on the road this season. Freddy Garcia is 10-4 overall this year and 5-2 on the road this season. Garcia is 18-6 with a 3.74 ERA overall vs Detroit since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox today!

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Roy Oswalt makes his second start tonight for the Philles. This ones in Florida to face a Marlins team that is a terrible 2-11 as a home dog in this range. The Phillies are 7-3 this year and 38-17 over the past few seasons as a road favorite in this range. Tonight they take on C. Volstad. Oswalt has a better overall road era at 2.97 then Volstad has at home. However Oswalt was the victim over very low run support in Houston. His won loss record has suffered as a result. Look for the Phillies to take the last game of this series tonight.

Steve Janus

Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Texas Rangers
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I like the Rangers to win on the road over the Mariners on Thursday. The Rangers have Tommy Hunter on the mound, who is 8-1 on the season with a 3.31 ERA.I also like the Rangers offense to give Hunter enough run support against ace Felix Hernandez. The Rangers are definitely the better team and you can't pass up on them as an underdog. Bet Texas!

Top Trends For Texas +111
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*TEXAS is 17-8 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.
*TEXAS is 20-8 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

EZWINNERS
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Los Angeles Angels -165
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The Angels starting pitcher Dan Haren is 0-6 over his last nine starts, but he's posted a 4.12 ERA with 58 strikeouts in that stretch and has been the victim of a lack of run support. In his last start against the Rangers, Haren pitched a complete game and allowed only two runs, but was a 2-1 loser as the Angels could only manage one run against Texas. I expect the Angels to provide Haren with the run support that he needs against a starting pitcher that has really been knocked around. The Orioles rookie starting pitcher Jake Arrieta is really struggling. Arrieta is 0-1 with an 8.56 ERA in his last three starts and he has been knocked out of games very early recently. Arrieta lasted just 4 1/3 innings on Friday night, allowing three runs off six hits against the Royals. Arrieta threw 102 pitches in his short outing while walking five batters. Arrieta has a strikeout to walk ratio of 25 to 32 and that is definitely not helping his cause as he struggles with his control. I expect the Angels, who are a very patient team, to draw a lot of walks in this game and once again send Arrieta to an early exit. The Angels are 10-4 in the last fourteen games in Baltimore and I expect those winning ways to continue. Play on the Angels.

Brad Diamond
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Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay
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The first place Rays show at 14-3 versus a hurler (Slowey) with a WHIP greater than 1.30. In addition, the hot unit has won 4 straight in this series and show with a huge 5-0 mark when hurler Davis takes the bump. Overall, the Rays have won 21 of 27 and appear sufficient momentum to take down this pesky foe.

Jack Clayton

Indians at Red Sox
Pick: Under

No Kevin Youkalis adds to the Boston offensive problems, and they still have great pitching and defense. Cleveland has very little offense. Play under the total.

JIM FEIST

NATIONALS/DBACKS
TAKE: OVER

Two of the worst teams in baseball hook up here on Thursday as the Nats take on the D'backs. Arizona made wholesale changes at the trade deadline, sending off some of their bigger name players including Dan Haren to the Angels. The D'backs took game one of this series and then lost game two on Wednesday. The teams play tonight and then on Friday. Then they will meet again in just over a week in Washington. I'm going with the OVER in tonight's contest. I always like it when I get two bad clubs playing since they seem to beat up on each other. I also like to look at the ballpark. Chase Field in Arizona is the 6th best hitters park in baseball, even above Wrigley field and Fenway park. We have two young pitchers facing off tonight in Ross Detwiler for the Nats and Barry Enright for the D'backs. Detwiler is 1-7 in 18 major league appearances while Enright walks almost as many batters as he K's. You can really forget how bad these teams are since the pitching is equally as bad. Bad hitting usually beats bad pitching so I'm sticking with the OVER here on Thursday.

Steve Merril

Indians @ Red Sox
PICK: Under 9
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Boston needs a win to pick up a split with the Cleveland Indians before heading to Yankee Stadium for a 4-game series. They'll turn to Daisuke Matsuzaka who is 7-3 with a 4.21 ERA in 15 starts this season. His last three times out, he has given up just six runs and 14 hits in 18.7 innings pitched. The righty already faced the Indians once in Cleveland giving up just four hits over eight innings of work in a 4-1 Red Sox win. Matsuzaka also faced the Indians at home last October and he gave up only two runs and five hits in six innings pitched. Shin-Soo Choo (1-7), Trevor Crowe (1-5), and Matt LaPorta (0-3) have poor numbers against Matsuzaka. Before last night's game, the Indians had scored only 15 runs on their current road trip which has spanned six games so far. Boston's bullpen has an ERA below 4.00 at home where they are 9-4 with only five blown saves this season.
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Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin has truly been tested in his first two starts in the majors. He faced the Yankees in Cleveland and the Blue Jays in Toronto. Still, he has come out of those games relatively unscathed. In 12.3 innings pitched, Tomlin has given up just two runs and seven hits while walking only two. The righty will face an inconsistent Red Sox offense which has shown it can disappear much like they have in their last two games. They are without a lot of talent including Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, and consistent production is simply not there. We expect a low-scoring game, so we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Indians and Red Sox tonight.

JOEL TYSON

Comp play winner on the White Sox last night.

For Thursday, underdog play on the Indians over the Red Sox.

Josh Tomlin has looked damn good to me in his first 2 starts at this level, as Tomlin is 1-0 with 12 innings of 2 run ball allowed in starts versus the Yankees and Blue Jays.

Cleveland has taken 2 of the first 3 at Fenway Park, and has now won 4 of their last 5 overall, while Boston has done no better than a 3-3 split their last 6 games.

Matsuzaka is coming off a no decision, but he did allow 4 runs in his 6 innings of work against the Tigers his last time out.

I like the way Cleveland has competed down the stretch, and think the take back in this game is worth a shot on the Tribe.

2♦ CLEVELAND

JAY MCNEIL

San Diego at Los Angeles

I’ll take my chances with the struggling Dodgers, as the only bright spot with this team lately has been Chad Billingsley, who has now strung together 21 consecutive scoreless innings over a span of three starts, including 6-2/3 innings against the Giants last Saturday, when he threw on just three days' rest.

That shows me he is finally getting stronger and healthier – maybe too little too late for this team – and his durability has finally come around.

That scoreless run also includes six scoreless innings against these same Padres in San Diego, so with this one at Chavez Ravine, I’ll look for another solid performance.

2♦ LOS ANGELES

Stephen Nover

I am on a 49-31-1 run on my complimentary selections after cashing a huge underdog winner on Wednesday with the Minnesota Twins. I'm going to stick with an underdog and play the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday's card for my free selection.

I'm going to ride the Orioles and fade the sinking Los Angeles Angels. New manager Buck Showalter has provided an initial boost and raised the spirits of the Orioles. They are 2-0 under Showalter, defeating Los Angeles in the first two games of this series.

The Angels are now 54-55. It's the latest they've been under .500 since 2003. The Angels just aren't playing well having lost 10 of their last 13 and six of their past seven on the road.

The pitching matchup of Dan Haren versus Jacob Arrieta favors the Angels, although Haren has to relearn the American League after coming from Arizona.

But at this big of a home 'dog price, I'll ride the Orioles. Baseball is all about streaks. Right now the Orioles are hot and the Angels aren't. This price doesn't reflect that so I'm on Baltimore

4♦ BALTIMORE