Karl Garrett
G-Man scored with the Phillies for free last night to make it an 8-2-1 comp play run the last 11 days.
For Thursday night, the pitchers rule at Turner Field as Tim Lincecum opposes Jair Jurrjens in a game that will feature plenty of nothing on the scoreboard come the end of this 9-inning affair.
Tim Lincecum brings in some solid credentials, as the long-haired righty is 4-1 on the road this season with a road ERA a shade above 3. He is also 4-1 his last 5 starts against the Braves, allowing 2 runs or less in 4 of those 5 starts.
His counterpart Jair Jurrjens is a perfect 3-0 at home this year through 5 starts, and has a home ERA of 1.71 to go along with those 3 wins. All 5 of Jurrjens' home starts have held UNDER the posted total.
San Francisco has been under the total in 4 of their last 6 games, while the Braves snapped a 4 game under run with the over last night against the Mets.
Overall, the Braves have played low in 7 of their last 9 contests.
G-Man on the under tonight from Atlanta.
4♦ UNDER
Tom Freese
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Giants at Braves
Play: Under
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Atlanta starter Jair Jurrjens has allowed 3 or less runs in 7 of his last 11 starts this year. The Braves are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games and they are 6-2-2 UNDER their last 10 home games vs. righty starters. Atlanta 21-4 UNDER in the last 25 starts made by Jurrjens in Game One of a series. Jurrjens is 13-6 UNDER his last 19 starts. San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of last 5 starts. Lincecum is 4-1 UNDER his last 5 games vs. the Braves. The Giants are 4-1-1 UNDER when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their last game and they are 4-1 UNDER after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game.
Sac Lawson
ARI / WAS Under 9.5
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First off.. Joe West is behind home plate this afternoon, and that means trouble. Joe West is an idiot, straight up. But there is one thing that can't be denied, he's fair. Over the course of his career, he's almost right on 50% O/U. He'll call it how it is. But another thing that is apparent with West is that he's an emotional character. Emotional people make calls for people they like, and hold grudges when they are upset. Ivan Rodriguez being behind the plate for Washington could make a huge difference in this game. From what I've heard, West and Pudge get a long quite well, and with Pudge being the veteran that he is, I have little doubt that West will favor him in any way possible.
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Umpire aside, Detwiler has some decent stuff, unfortunately it's tough to say what kinda form he's in at this point having only seen him twice this season. Fact is, he'll keep the ball low, and his problems will come with walks and the mounting of hits. Arizona is a team that needs homers to win ball games. Detwiler has only given up 3 home runs in his 15 games as a major leaguer. Good numbers, no doubt. Should make it tough on Arizona.
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On the other side, I'm a huge fan of Barry Enright. He may not have the approval of Joe West like we'll see on the Washington side, but he's a guy that simply hits his spots, works around the zone for the entire game, and as a result gets people to swing the bat. He has done nothing but impress me since coming up to the bigs, and he's starting to really remind me of a guy like Ted Lilly... You can make contact against him, but they're going to be weak pop ups, broken bats, or rollovers... Tough to square the guy up. Even tougher for Washington tonight with their weak history on the road this year.
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Obviously both bullpens are a concern, which is why this line is where it is... But quite frankly, I see both starters pitching well and giving the bullpens some wiggle room. As long as we don't see a late inning implosion, we should be good! 1 unit on the UNDER!
Nelly
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Philadelphia - over Florida
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Roy Oswalt did not have the best debut for the Phillies but keep in mind it was a hectic week and he had to pitch the same day the deal was finalized, facing significant travel and unusual attention. Now with the team for a week and settled back into his normal routine he should be poised for a strong outing. Oswalt owns a 2.97 road ERA for the season with a 1.06 WHIP and opposing batters are hitting just .223 against him. Chris Volstad continues to post sub-par numbers for the Marlins with 28 runs allowed in his last eight starts. Florida is just 3-7 in his last ten outings and 6-13 for the season when he pitches. His WHIP is dangerously high at 1.41 and the Phillies tagged him for six runs in four innings the last time they faced off. Philadelphia has a significant bullpen edge in this match-up and the Marlins have no real home field edge with a .500 record in Miami. The road team has also won seven of the last eight in this series. Philadelphia is batting .294 in the past ten games while the Phillies have caught recent fire going 8-2 in the past ten. Florida has now lost three in a row and Philadelphia is 13-3 in the last 16 games at Sun Life Stadium.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -102
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The Giants are worth a shot with the reigning 2-time NL Cy Young winner on the hill at this price. The Giants are 21-6 in their last 27 overall. They did endure a rare loss during this run yesterday, but they are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games following a defeat. They have also won Lincecum's last 5 starts. Plus, Lincecum has owned the Braves to the tune of 6-1 with an ERA of 2.70 in his career. Jurrjens takes the mound for the Braves, and they have lost his last 2 starts. In those outings, he has been touched for 9 runs in just 13 2/3 innings of work. Jurrjens has also lost 2 of 3 career starts versus Atlanta. The Braves picked up a win over the Mets yesterday, but they are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a victory. Take the Giants.
Jack Jones
Rockies/Pirates OVER 8.5
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Runs will not be hard to come by in Pittsburgh tonight in what should be a slug fest between the Rockies and Pirates. The OVER is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 games overall, and during those 6 contests Colorado has put up 46 runs for an average of 7.7 RPG. The OVER is 4-1 in the Pirates last 5 games, and they've allowed 39 runs in those 5 contests for an average of 7.8 RPG.
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James McDonald has faced the Rockies twice in his career, posting a 4.82 ERA and 1.608 WHIP while allowing 5 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9.1 innings. The OVER is 2-0 in both of those starts. Jeff Francis cannot seem to figure out the Pirates, as he's 3-2 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.624 WHIP in 5 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. The OVER is 6-1 in Rockies last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 5-1 in Francis' last 6 starts overall. The OVER is 7-1-1 in Pirates last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 4-1-2 in the last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh. Take the OVER in this game Thursday.
Craig Trapp
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San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: San Francisco Giants
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Lincencum is starting to get the feel that he had last year. His changeup is back to being nearly unhittable, and his fastball has its movement back as well. SFG is on a roll as well winning 7 of last 10 where ATL has only won 4 of last 10. Jurgens goes for ATL today and he has been up and down since coming off DL about a month ago. His worst start since coming back was last time out, where he struggled with control before giving up 5 ER's. SF can't afford to lose this series as SD continues to win and pull away. Only home field record of ATL scares us here, but Lincencum will take care of us giving us close win.
Bryan Leonard
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Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Chicago White Sox
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The White Sox are playing much better ball than the fading Tigers, yet they are a sizable underdog on Thursday. Freddy Garcia has dominated Detroit the past few seasons as the White Sox are 14-3 when he takes the mound against Detroit. Chicago is 9-1 in his last 10 starts against Detroit while scoring 4 or more runs in every game. Matt Scherzer for Detroit hasn't had that kind of run support. In fact, Detroit has only scored more than 4 runs in his starts twice in the last 10 games. Overall the Tigers are struggling offensively producing just 31 total runs in their last 10 games. Chicago is the better hitting club at the moment and Garcia has shown the ability to win against this Tiger squad. A solid underdog price adds to our enjoyment.
Doug Upstone
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Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 9
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The Cleveland Indians have won four of six on the road no less and will finish up a successful road trip no matter tonight’s outcome. The Tribe blistered Boston pitching last evening in 9-1 triumph. Cleveland is next to last in the American League in team batting average at .247 and this leads directly to totals action. Play the UNDER on an AL road team with a batting average of .255 or worse on the season, after a win by eight runs or more. The previous five years this system is 22-8.
Frank Jordan
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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Even with all their injuries the Phillies are just a couple of games back of Atlanta as they start a series with the Marlins. Oswalt did get roughed up in his debut as a Philly against Washington, but also didn't get any run support as the Phillies only scored him one run. Look for the Philly bats to explode to day as they give Oswalt all he needs and then some. Play Philadelphia
THE PREZ
Twins @ Rays
PICK: Over 9
Wade Davis has struggled with consistency this season and when he finds trouble it comes in the form of long fly balls. Davis has an ugly 1.50 HR/9 after posting a 0.79 mark in 158 AAA innings and 0.50 mark in 36 MLB innings in 2009, respectively. The Rays right-hander has middling peripherals and the combination of not missing enough bats (5.79 K/9) and allowing 3.5 walks per game has not allowed him to be successful for extended periods. With a BABIP of .278 and FIP of 5.33 coming into this early Thu start Davis is actually lucky to own just a 4.21 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. Davis will continue to experience his share of growing pains in his first big league season and even with a number of key Minnesota bats either on the bench or the DL, the Rays righty is more likely to disappoint than surprise. Davis went 4-0 in five July outings with a win over the Yanks in his last start and recorded a 3.03 ERA last month after losing all five of his outings in June while posting a 6.00 ERA. The Tampa starter has been more than lucky stranding a ridiculously high 80 percent of the runners and the combination of his LD percentage and BABIP makes the right-handed contact pitcher a series question mark to go six innings in any one contest, even against a Minny lineup without Justin Morneau.
Kevin Slowey was successful in his last start, a rare outing this season, throwing eight scoreless innings while allowing five hits and no walks while striking out five. For the third straight season Slowey has a very solid K/BB ratio; it currently sits at four, however, his extreme FB tendencies prevent him from having any sustained success. Slowey currently has a FB% of a whopping 49.7% and even with a modest and career best 8.1 HR/FB percentage, you get what you see (peripherals) with the Twins starter. Slowey is giving up 1.20 HR/9 and we fully expect that number to rise in the dog days of summer. As Slowey’s HR/FB% gradually climbs, his HR/9 will approach his career level of 1.42 and while his overall command allows him to find success from time to time the fact that 70 percent of the balls hit in play from Slowey pitches are either fly balls or line drives the only way to approach today's early pitch is to a play on the OVER.
Chris Guccione is scheduled to call balls and strikes this afternoon, and the hitter-friendly umpire has participated in a number of high scoring affairs when grading starters that pitch to contact, just like Davis and Slowey. The OVER is 8-3-2 in Slowey's last 13 road starts against a team with a winning record.
Playing to the OVER on a team (Minnesota) that starts a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or higher and an ERA of 2.25 or less in his last three starts which includes a Whip of 1.50 or larger on the road -- against a team (Tampa Bay) that has a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or higher but an ERA of 2.25 or less in his last three starts -- has cashed at a 44-11 mark over the last 10 MLB campaigns.
With Morneau and Orlando Hudson out for the Twins and Carlos Pena still expected to rest his damaged foot for the Rays -- the public will likely move the TOTAL in this game from the current number of 9 runs to 8.5 before the end of the day. Waiting for line (Total) movement on this early AL affair -- until the total moves to OVER 8.5 -- is recommended.
BEN BURNS
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are 37-18 (+12.2) the last 55 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Should the line climb higher, note that they're also 49-14 (+26.2) the last 63 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range.
Both starters have pitched well lately. Slowey has a 1.83 ERA his last three starts. Davis has a 2.11 ERA his last three. Davis' 4.05 home ERA for the season is far superior to Slowey's 5.67 road ERA though.
Also, with this being an 'early' game, note that Davis has been better during the afternoon than he has at night. Conversely, Slowey has been much better at night than he has been during the day.
The Rays are 21-10 (+8.4) when playing during the afternoon. Even with yesterday's loss, they're also still 5-2 against the Twins this season. They've got an excellent shot at bouncing back here. Consider Tampa.
ROCCO VINCINTORE
TEXAS at SEATTLE
PLAY: TEXAS
The Texas Rangers ended their brief two-game losing streak Wednesday night with a come-from-behind victory over the Seattle Mariners.
Hunter (8-1, 3.31 ERA) will attempt to bounce back from his only loss of the season when he allowed eight runs in three innings in Friday’s 9-7 defeat to the Los Angeles Angels.
Hunter limited the Mariners to three runs – two earned – in six innings on June 10. He is 2-2 with a 2.67 ERA in five career starts against Seattle.
Hernandez (7-8, 2.90) has the sixth-best ERA in the American League but has had troubles against the Rangers, who lead the AL West by eight games over Oakland.
In 25 career starts against the Rangers, Hernandez is 8-11 with a 4.16 ERA. Those 11 losses are the most by Hernandez against any team.
In two losses to the Rangers this season, he has a combined ERA of 7.27. The Mariners have scored just seven runs in Hernandez’s eight losses, leaving a razor-thin margin for error.
The Rangers are 9-2 in Hunters last 11 starts and the Rangers are 7-1 in Hunters last 8 starts versus a team with a losing record.
Mariners are 17-43 in their last 60 games following a loss, the Mariners are 0-7 in their last 7 Thursday games and the Mariners are 0-6 in Hernandezs last 6 starts vs. American League West.
Black Widow
1* on Angels/Orioles OVER 9
Look for another big run output tonight from the Angels and Orioles after last night's 9-7 win by Baltimore which saw 16 combined runs. Dan Haren just hasn't been the same this season, going 7-10 with a 4.42 ERA. The OVER is 16-7 in Haren's 23 starts this year. Jake Arrieta has not been effective for Baltimore, either, as he's 3-3 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.709 WHIP in 10 starts. The OVER is 6-3-1 in those 10 games. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Arrieta's last 8 starts overall and the OVER is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. Take the OVER 9 runs here.
Info Plays
3* on Los Angeles Dodgers -153
Reasons the Dodgers win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SAN DIEGO) - with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games, with a rested bullpen - threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games. This is an 89-27 ML System hitting 76.7% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +47.3 units.
2.) With a win tonight, the Dodgers would be 3-1 against San Diego in this 4-game series and will have gained 2 games on the Padres in the NL West division. That makes this game very critical, and with Chad Billingsley on the mound we like their chances to take this series.
3.) Chad Billingsley is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.738 WHIP in his last 3 starts, not allowing a single earned run in 21.2 innings. The righty is 9-4 with a 2.45 ERA in 16 lifetime starts vs. San Diego, and the Dodgers are 11-5 in those games. Kevin Correia is 3-3 with a 5.36 ERA in 9 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. Correia is posted a 5.97 ERA through 8 road starts in 2010. Bet the Dodgers at home.