Freddy Wills
Giants vs. Braves
Play: Under 7
3-0 last three days here on FREE plays and I'll look to continue with the under in the Giants vs. Braves. Look the Braves have not been hitting and it's been going on for a while. Now they face Tim Lincecum who is 6-1 career with a 2.70 ERA vs. the Braves. Giants are hot with the bats, but they'll face Jarr Jurrjens who they have struggled against and Jurrjens has a 2.20 ERA in home starts. He is still getting back to what he's used to and I believe he throws a gem. In his last start vs. Lincecum he went 7.2 IP giving up just 1 ER and got the win.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -103
Lincecum's presence on the mound is allowing us to take one of the best home clubs in baseball at a great price. Atlanta is 36-14 at home this season and 9-2 in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Lincecum is as good as they get in the NL, but he hasn't quite had his A+ stuff lately, posting an ERA of 4.12 over his last 3 starts. Lincecum lost a duel with Jurrjens in Atlanta last year, and I expect history to repeat itself. Jurrjens is a lights out 3-0 (5-0 on the money line) with an ERA of only 1.71 at home this season. This is also a tough spot for San Francisco making the long trip east while the Braves have been at home waiting. Take the Braves.
John Ryan
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
5* graded play on the Dodgers as they take on the divisional leading San Diego Padres set to start at 10:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game. The Dodgers are in a must win situation here with Billingsley on the bump knowing they are 7 games out from San Diego’s current pace. They are six games out in the Wild Card race, but there are 4 teams ahead of them. At this point of the season it is very difficult to jump over 4 teams in the wild card race, but two of those teams are in their own division. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 89-27 for 77% winners since 2004. Play against road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games and with a rested bullpen that threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games. This system is already 12-4 making 5.8 units this season. Padres win with pitching as they are not a strong hitting teams. Dodgers have done very well against similar makeups noting they are a strong 41-14 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus a NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons.; 30-13 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons; 15-4 (+10.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 this season. Billingsley is pitching his best baseball of his career right now. Over his last three starts he has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.738 WHIP spanning 21 2/3 innings. In 9 starts against divisional opponents he has gone 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP. Take the Dodgers.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -101
Great price to back the Giants w/ their ace Lincecum on the bump. The hottest team in baseball since the All-Star break went down yesterday, but they are 7-0 in their last 7 games after a loss. They have won Lincecum's last 5 starts and 9 of his 11 road starts this season. Lincecum has also been lights out against the Braves in his career, posting a 6-1 record with an ERA of only 2.70. Jurrjens has been good at home, but I'm not sold. He has lost 2 of 3 career starts to San Francisco, and he has been hit hard in his last 2 starts. I'm on Lincecum and the Giants tonight.
Hollywood Sports
Phillies at Marlins
Prediction: Under
Philly trots out their recent acquisition in Roy Oswalt who has a 3.53 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this season. Oswalt has been particularly effective on the road this season as he boasts a 2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .227 opponent's batting average. He faces off against Chris Volstad who has a meager 4.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. But Volstad is a much better pitcher at home in Tropicana Field where he enjoys a 3.65 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a .245 opponent's batting average as compared to his 6.08 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .295 opponent's batting average on the road this season.
Additionally, both of these pitchers share a very promising deeper sabermetric statistic that bodes well for their respective futures: batting average for line-drives put into play (LD BABIP). Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The MLB average for line-drives that go for base hits is typically in the .720-.725 range. Oswalt and Volstad have .662 and .672 LD BABIPs respectively which indicates that batters are having a difficult time dominating at-bats with these hurlers. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like LD BABIP, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future. Take the Under while listing both of these pitchers.