Jim Feist
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Boston Red Sox +136
Boston is going with a lot of kids now and they producing, adding some hunger to a team that has lacked it much of the year. The Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Red Sox go with their best pitcher, Eduardo Rodriguez (6-3). The team is 6-2 his last eight starts. New York is home but has washed up C.C. Sabathia (5.54 ERA, 4-8) going. The Yankees are 2-5 in Sabathia's last 7 starts vs. American League East. Sabathia suffered from dehydration following his start Thursday, forcing him to the hospital following Thursday's game against the Rangers. He has allowed 5 runs in each of his last two starts covering 10+ innings. Opponents are hitting .302 off him this season. This is a tough park to pitch in and Sabathia has a losing home record in 2015 with a 6.80 ERA. And the Yankees are 2-5 in Sabathia's last 7 home starts vs. Red Sox.
Frank Jordan
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers +104
Detroit was able to squeak out a victory Wednesday night 2-1 over Kansas City as they scratched out two runs off Cueto and Boyd made it hold up. Thursday's pitching match up has Ventura for the Royals and Sanchez for the Tigers. Ventura is sporting an ERA of nearly five and a sub .500 record at 6-7 and has a six ERA against the Tigers. Sanchez is 10-9 with a 4.77 ERA thus far this year with seven of those wins coming at home. Against Kansas City he is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA. Look for Sanchez to use the big ball park to swallow up fly balls with the Detroit offense led by Victor Martinez to dominate Ventura.
Brandon Lee
Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +120
Toronto's moves at the trade deadline have lit a fire under this team. The Blue Jays have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall since 7/29. This recent surge has catapulted them into the 2nd Wild Card spot in the AL and they are just 1 game back of the Angels for the top Wild Card spot and within striking distance at 4.5 back of the AL East lead behind New York. Each of their last 4 and 6 of their last 7 wins have come by at least 2 runs, which is why I think the smart play here is to avoid the big juice on the money line and take the Blue Jays on the run line. The offense should be able to put up a big number here, as Minnesota's Kyle Gibson has a 7.27 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Toronto's Mark Buehrle is 5-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 9 home starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Atlanta Braves -109
Atlanta is showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the slumping Marlins. Miami has lost 3 straight and 8 of 10 overall. Atlanta hasn't been a whole lot better, but are a respectable 27-22 at home, while the Marlins are a mere 17-35 on the road.
The key here is the starting pitching matchup. Atlanta's Matt Wisler comes in with a below-average 4.44 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 8 starts, but has gone a perfect 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in 3 starts at home. Miami will counter with Jose Urena, who is 1-5 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in 8 starts and 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in 3 road starts.
Atlanta swept the most recent series between these two teams in Miami and the Marlins are a dismal 0-7 in their last 7 when revenging 2 straight loss as a home favorite. Atlanta is a strong 14-7 in their last 21 home games off a loss and 6-1 in their last 7 home games when listed as a favorite.
Steve Rosen
San Francisco Giants +110
The Friendly Confines of Wrigley haven’t always been kind to Thursday starter Jason Hammel, who hasn’t won at Wrigley Field since April 27 and is 1-2 at home this season despite pitching to a 3.08 ERA. Hammel will oppose fellow right-hander Chris Heston, who is 6-1 on the road! Heston hasn’t suffered a loss since June 14 the start after he no-hit the New York Mets and is 5-0 with a 2.44 ERA in eight starts over that stretch.Hammel snapped an eight-start winless streak last time out, holding Milwaukee to one run over 5 2/3 innings Friday. The 32-year-old has recorded only two quality starts in his last nine outings after posting eight in his first 11 turns this season. Hammel has historically struggled in the second half, going 16-35 after the All-Star break in his career compared to a 49-40 mark before the break!
Marc Lawrence
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -125
Edges - Braves: Matt Wisler 4-1 at night and 3-0 home with 2.33 ERA career team starts this season. Marlins: Jose Urena 1-5 team starts at night this season, and 11 walks and 9 strikeouts last four starts. With the Braves 7-2 the last nine games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Atlanta.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Might as well back the surging Jays tonight as they go for the (four-game) sweep of Minnesota. While these two are battling for a Wild Card spot in the American League, that's a little misleading in the sense that Toronto has a vastly superior YTD run differential (+114 vs. -10), thus I'm not shocked at how things have gone.
I've made the case for Toronto much of this year as their YTD run differential is in fact currently the best in all of baseball. Only St. Louis, who has the best overall record, is even within 30 runs of that scoring margin. Overall, they've now won four straight and seven of eight, powered by MLB's best offense, which continues to average nearly a full run per game more than almost every other team. The top of the order has been mashing since Troy Tulowitzki came over from Colorado. The lineup has homered 31 times in the last 18 games.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction as they've gone 4-13 their last 17. Having to deal w/ veteran lefty Mark Buehrle does them absolutely no favors tonight as he is 5-1 w/ a 3.09 ERA his L9 home starts. Counterpart Kyle Gibson has a 7.27 ERA and 1.500 WHIP his last three trips to the mound. A lineup that's batting a collective .170 its last seven contests simply can't keep up with the home team in this one.
Will Rogers
Minnesota vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The Toronto Blue Jays are inching closer to the top of the NL East, gaining ground on the Yankees last night. They are now just 4.5 games back, and they host the Twins tonight with a chance to complete the sweep. The Twins have dropped seven of their last eight on the road.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Mark Buehrle will be on the mound for Toronto, and he's held the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts. He was a little unfortunate in his last two outings, losing close games at home to Kansas City and on the road in Seattle. The way the Jays are swinging the bats, he should get better support here tonight. The Twins counter with Kyle Gibson, who is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA in nine starts on the road.
2. Batter vs Pitcher - The Blue Jays haven't seen a lot of Gibson, but they've hit a combined .295 with a pair of home runs in 44 at bats.
3. X-Factor - Toronto is 7-3 in Buehrle's last 10 home starts.
Brandon Shively
Washington -1.5 +155
Joe Ross takes the mound this afternoon and he has a 0.92 WHIP on the season. He has a 40K/4 BB mark and has been their most consistent starter other than Scherzer in my opinion. I believe that we can depend on Ross to go out there and throw a quality start this afternoon.
Hellickson takes the mound for the Diamondbacks. Hellickson just got pounded for 7 hits (3 homeruns) @ Houston last start. He has now given up 10 homeruns on the road this season. He faced the Nationals earlier this season and gave up 4 ER in 5.2 IP, including a homerun by Jayson Werth.
After watching the post game report with the Washington Nationals coach last night, he indicated that he will have his team fired up for this game. They need this game to even the series at 2-2. From a scheduling standpoint, Arizona is now playing their 10th straight road game and I think this favors us also in this early game. Arizona scored 11 runs last night (17 hits). I mention this because looking back this season, when they have scored 8+ runs, they are 4-10 in their next game. They beat Washington 14-6 earlier this season then lost 9-6 the next game (Hellickson was on the mound). That was the ONLY game this season that Washington has given up 10+ runs in a game before last night and they responded with a 9-6 victory the next game.
Arizona has lost 6 of Hellickson's road starts this season. 5 of those 6 losses have come by 2 or more runs. So when they lose, it's by 2 or more runs 80% of the time. Overall, Arizona has lost 7 of Hellickson's 9 starts by 2 or more runs (77%). Washington is still 9-3 the L12 meetings in Washington and tend to own this series. I have the feeling the offense gets ignited in this one and we see an EASY WIN.
Mr Vegas
Houston at Oakland
Play: Under
Houston heads to Oakland, a huge park, great for pitchers. The Under is 9-1-1 in the Astros last 11 road games. Dallas Keuchel (2.35 ERA, 13-5) is having a dominant season. Keuchel tossed six innings of two-hit ball Saturday, allowing two earned runs and striking out eight in a 9-2 win. His ERA is now sitting at a comfortable 2.35, his WHIP for the season is a minute 0.99, and he's piled up 57 strikeouts in his last seven outings. The Under is 7-0 in the Astros last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter and they face righty Aaron Brooks (3.09 ERA). In his first start since being traded from the Royals, Aaron Brooks gives up one run over 7 1/3 innings in Oakland's 5-1 win over Cleveland. Oakland is on a 19-7-2 under the total, including 17-6-3 under at home.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Cincinnati
Pick: St. Louis +150
The St. Louis Cardinals have been one of the more successful MLB franchises, and they continue to perform in 2015. The Cardinals own the best record in baseball, entering this game with a 68-39 record. If you want to beat this team you need solid left-handed pitching, as the Cards are just 15-14 on the season vs. a southpaw, but when they tee it up against a right-hander they have been an impressive 53-25. St. Louis has an excellent track record with Wacha on the hill on the road where they are 10-2 in his last 12 starts. The Reds are not showing much bite as a home dog from +151 to +200 where they are 5-17 in their last 22. The Cardinals are 4-1 in Wacha's last five starts vs. Cincinnati, so play on St. Louis in this one.
DAVE COKIN
SAN FRANCISCO AT CHICAGO
PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO +117
Two serious playoff contenders open a big weekend series tonight as the Giants and Cubs square off at Wrigley Field. San Francisco is off a pair of wins vs. the Braves, while the Cubs return home after having their winning streak snapped last night at Pittsburgh.
Chris Heston, one of three major leaguers to fashion a no-hitter this season, will get the start for the road team while Jason Hammel throws for the hosts. Heston isn’t getting much attention as far as the NL Rookie of the Year conversation is concerned. Even with the headline grabbing gem that got him noticed early this season, Heston seems to still be very much under the radar. But the first-year righty has been a rock solid component in the Giants rotation.
Hammel has not been all that sharp recently, and that might have something to do with a hamstring tweak that surfaced a few starts back. The main issue in what can be called a mild decline is illustrated best in looking at Hammel’s season to date BB/K numbers and then seeing what’s happened recently. For the year, Hammel owns a really impressive 1.83/8.85 ratio per nine innings, and that’s one of the best sets in the game. But in his last three starts since the hammy acted up, Hammel has logged 14.1 innings, and the BB/K totals are 6/11. So it’s easy to see that his control hasn’t been as sharp and he’s not sending as many hitters back to the dugout with bats in hand.
Heston also arrives off a less than stellar outing as he lasted only 4.2 innings at Texas. But even with that sluggish effort, Heston still hasn’t surrendered more than three runs in a game since a rough go against the Pirates, and that was way back at the beginning of June. Heston doesn’t overpower hitters, but he’s pitched smart all season and to state that he’s exceeded expectations is a pretty good sized understatement.
Situational offensive stats point the Giants way here. They’ve done their best work against righties on the road, while the Cubs have actually had some difficulty putting scores on the board when facing righties at home. As for the bullpens, they’re just about dead even as far as the seasonal data goes, although the Giants relievers have the better short term numbers.
This series should be fun to watch. The Giants are about as proven as it gets when it comes to big games. That’s something all new for the Cubs, but they’ve been rising to the occasion lately. Regardless of what transpires the rest of the way, the Cubs are establishing themselves as a legit team to beat in 2016 and beyond, and the fun this year is strictly gravy train material.
As for tonight, I see there being some value at the present number on the Giants side. I make this game a virtual tossup and when that’s the case and I can garner nearly 6/5 with the dog, it’s frequently worth pursuing. I’m a little iffy on Hammel right now, so my choice this evening will be the Giants.
Vegas Butcher
Minnesota Twins (1st 5 Innings Only) +140
Twins have an atrocious BP while Toronto ranks 6th, so going to take the bullpens out of the equation. Even so, the Jays are way over-valued in this one. My model has them at -147 in this one, though I believe the Twins have an even better chance in the first 5 innings of this one. Gibson has a 3.5 xFIP (ranked 49th) against right-handers this year, which is important against such a strong right-handed lineup. He’s also a strong GB-pitcher, with a GB-rate of 53% on the year. On the season he’s only allowed 4 HR’s on the road (0.6 HR/9 rate) so hopefully he can keep the ball inside the park tonight as well. One thing I noticed is that for the month of July, Gibson has pitched extremely well. He had a 23% K-rate, only a 0.6 HR/9 rate, and registered a 3.1 FIP/xFIP, the lowest marks of the year. Opposite him is Buehrle, a guy who continues to plug away even though his fastball doesn’t sniff 85 MPH. Buehrle has a HR/9 rate of 1.1 at home compared to 0.8 on the road, and I’m hoping that’s the difference in this one. Minnesota ranks 21st overall offensively but they’re actually very good against lefties, ranking 10th on the season (12th in ISO). When they faced Buehrle earlier in the year, they had a 54% FB-rate against him, with a 38% Hard-contact rate, and 5.1 SIERA, the 3rd highest mark he’s allowed at any point this season. Twins have decent power in their lineup and if they can hit Buehrle hard again today I expect them to plate some runs in this one.
Miami Marlins +100
Two bad pitchers on the mound (neither faced the opposing lineup before) with two atrocious offenses behind them. But there’s two critical advantages in Miami’s favor. Miami has the #1 ranked BP and the #5 ranked fielding unit. That’s important as Urena has a 50% GB-rate, so I expect this Miami D to clean up a lot of the grounders he induces. By comparison, Atlanta has one of the worst bullpens in the league and ranks 22nd in fielding on the season. Wisler has a GB-rate of 34%, with a 24% LD-% and 43% FB-%. In such a scenario I’ll grab the team with a superior pen and elite defense.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -109
The Miami Marlins are 2-10 in their last 12 games overall. They are simply short on talent ever since Giancarlo Stanton went down with injury. They are getting too much respect here from the books as minimal road dogs to the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta clearly has the advantage on the mound in this one with Matt Wisler, who is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.035 WHIP in three home starts this year. Miami counters with Jose Urena, who is 1-5 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in eight starts and two relief appearances. Urena is 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts as well. Miami is 1-13 (-15.0 Units) against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season. The Marlins are 17-37 in their last 54 road games. The Marlins are 0-6 in Urena's last 6 starts as an underdog. The Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite. The Braves are 54-26 in their last 80 meetings.