Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox +136
The Boston Red Sox are showing great value today as big road underdogs to the New York Yankees. They have won four of their last six and clearly have no problem getting motivated to face the AL East rival Yankees.
I certainly believe that Boston has the edge on the mound tonight, but it's not being reflected in this line. Eduardo Rodriguez is 6-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.251 WHIP in 12 starts this year, including 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in five road starts. Rodriguez is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in one career start against New York, which came on July 11 in a 5-3 victory.
C.C. Sabathia continues to be overvalued despite the fact that he's one of the worst starters in baseball and has been for the last few years. The left-hander is 4-8 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.436 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 6.80 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in eight home starts. Sabathia is 11-14 with a 4.92 ERA in 32 career starts against Boston as well.
Boston is 14-6 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a game where they had 4 or less hits over the last tw seasons. New York is 10-22 (-19.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 over the last two seasons. The Red Sox are 5-1 in Rodriguez's last six starts.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona at Washington
Pick: Over
Both offenses have been scoring ample runs in this midweek series, and the 7 1/2 "total" looks a bit low, especially since Arizona starter Jeremy Hellickson is off of one of his worst games of the season, as he matched a season high with seven runs allowed, including six on three homers, in 3 1/3 IP of a 9-2 loss at Houston on Saturday. The D-backs, especially with Paul Goldschmidt apparently beyond a recent slump, also believe they can tag Washington starter Joe Ross, as the Nats have lost in his last three starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +131 over N.Y.Y (1st 5)
Here’s what we wrote before the first game of this series:
The Yankees are a tough team to read. They put up crooked numbers frequently with a lineup that has made a lot of bad pitchers look good this year. This is a polarizing Yankees squad that cannot be trusted in this price range.
Well, you can apply that here once again. The Yanks were down 2-1 in the sixth in the opener and then exploded for 12 runs on the Red Sox bullpen. Last night as a big favorite against Steven Wright, a guy with a career ERA around 5, the Yanks made him look like Zack Greinke in a 2-1 loss. In other recent losses, the Yanks were held to 1 run by Phil Hughes, to 2 runs by Colby Lewis and to 2 runs by John Danks. There is no predicting what the Yanks will do. They look horribly old one night and then score 10 the next. Now they’ll face Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez began his major league career with a bang, posting a 3.72 ERA over his first seven starts. In July, however, he struggled with his control, gave up more homers, and posted a 5.04 ERA for the month. Which Rodriguez will show up for an outing against the Yankees in New York and which Yankees team will show up against Rodriguez? We have no idea but we do know where the value lies. Rodriguez faced the Yankees on July 11 in Boston and allowed 2 runs in 6.3 IP. Give the Yanks a big edge in the bullpen and that’s the reason for this five inning play.
Enter C.C. Sabathia and his 5.54 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. We don’t know which version of the Yanks offense is going to show up but we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Sabathia. C.C. is currently sporting a third straight 4.75+ ERA with vastly diminished velocity and strikeout totals. His groundball rate is down, his line-drive rate is up and now he’s starting to give up jacks at an alarming rate. In fact, Sabathia has been tagged for five jacks in his last two starts and two jacks or more in six of his past nine games. At home Sabathia’s ERA is 6.80. Sabathia is an overweight, out-of-shape starter with a ton of miles on his pitching arm. The only reason he’s still starting is because the Yankees are paying him 24 million a year. His arm would have to fall off for them to sit him at that salary. If the Yanks make the playoffs, you will not see Sabathia anywhere near the mound. In the end, Sabathia is a great five-inning fade because he’ always gives up runs and sometimes it’s plentiful.
Minnesota +165 over TORONTO
Despite losing yesterday the Twins finally scored some runs and that relives some pressure and gives them a little more confidence coming into this finale. We know for sure that the Twinkies will put the ball in play against Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has 13 K’s in his last 35 innings. His swing and miss rate over his last 10 starts is a puny 4%. Buehrle’s ERA over his last five starts is 2.34 but his xERA is two runs higher at 4.31. His fastball is 84 mph. Buehrle wins games because he’s smart, he keeps hitters off balance, he has great location on his pitches and because he throws for a team that leads the majors in runs scored and it’s not even close. However, he still cannot be favored in this range because he’s just as likely to give up five runs in five innings as he is of giving up 1 or 2 runs. The Twins have some speed too and that has to count for something when the ball is in play.
The Blue Jays are the talk of MLB right now but they are not going to keep scoring runs at this pace. When they face strong pitchers that aren’t prone to giving up HR’s, they are beatable and that applies here. Kyle Gibson is showing signs of putting it all together. While his 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in July won't reel in the backers, his July base skills should: 8.6 K’s/9, 2.9 BB’s/9, 54% grounders. He also is starting to miss bats at a rate commensurate with his excellent raw stuff (12.0% swing and miss rate). Gibson usually works deep into games and he just keeps getting better. He’s allowed just three bombs over his last nine starts and worked into the seventh inning in five of those starts. One cannot be fearful of wagering against the Blue Jays because right now, although they’re rolling, they are grossly overpriced with Mark Buehrle on the hill and the hype that is surrounding them.
OAKLAND +105 over Houston
The Astronauts just went into Texas and were swept while facing starters, Colby Lewis, Yovani Gallardo and Nick Martinez. In the latter two, they scored just three times in both games. On Tuesday, down 4-3 in the ninth, the Astros put men on first and third with none out and couldn’t score the equalizer. Houston relies heavily on HR’s to score a lot of their runs and now they’ll travel to a park that decreases HR chances by 22%. The Astros will also face a pitcher they’ve never seen in Aaron Brooks. Brooks makes just his second start of the year and fourth appearance overall. He’s thrown just 12 innings so the sample size is small but we really like what we’ve seen in him. Against Cleveland, Brooks allowed just one run in 7.1 innings of work. He didn’t walk a batter while striking out five. Brooks had the Indians off balance throughout. He pounded the ball low in the strike zone and his off-speed stuff was dazzling. In his 12 innings of work, Brooks’ line drive rate is a mere 14%. In that game against Cleveland it was 9%. At Triple-A, Omaha of the Pacific Coast League (the best hitter’s league in America) Brook’s line-drive rate was 15.9% over 71 innings. It looks like we may have completely underestimated him in his first start but we expect to get it back here with interest.
Scott Feldman’s groundball tilt and decent control have limited the disasters and helped him settle in as a league average starter. However, Feldman’s pedestrian (and declining) strikeout rate (44 in 79 innings) leaves a thin margin for error. Feldman is always at the mercy of his defense. He puts the ball and play and hopes it gets hit at people. His ERA is 4.58 and his xERA is not far behind that. Feldman is a guy the Astros have counted on for innings and to keep them in games. He can’t be counted on for much else. With just four wins in 13 games started, Feldman’s win expectation isn’t high and he’s just not good enough to be priced in this range on the road. Definite overlay.
SPORTS WAGERS
B.C. LIONS +115 over Edmonton
We often write about under and overreactions when betting on NFL games and so we’re going to apply that same theory here. This line is a classic example of overreactions to both clubs. First, there’s B.C., a team that looked awful last week in a road game in Winnipeg in which they lost 23-13. The week before, the Lions blew a 21-0 lead to the Argonauts and lost 30-27. If you have bet the Lions this season in every game against the spread, you have not cashed a ticket yet. This is a club that has not looked sharp and that has disappointed every one of their backers almost every game. Now the masses will jump off and we’re jumping on.
Then there’s the Edmonton Eskimos. A team that has won four straight, have covered four straight and that has rewarded their backers with some “easy money”. Edmonton’s last two wins were by scores of 30-5 and 32-3. That’s a combined 62-8. Two games prior to that they had a 46-17 win. In recapping, the Eskies have defeated three of their last four opponents by a combined 109-25. Wow. Now you only have to spot a couple of points to back them here in a game they should romp in? Not so fast. You see Edmonton’s last two wins came against Saskatchewan and its brutal third string QB making his first CFL start. The Riders couldn’t move five yards. In Edmonton’s 32-3 win over Winnipeg, that game was 4-3 at the half and then Drew Willy was injured. Edmonton went on to score the next 28 points with Willy out and Brian Brohm in. Brohm threw two picks that directly led to two Edmonton TD’s. It should be noted that despite not being able to move five yards, Winnipeg held a time of possession edge over Edmonton in that 32-3 loss. It’s also worth noting that all of those blowout wins were in Edmonton. The Eskies four wins have come against Ottawa twice, Saskatchewan with its third string QB and Winnipeg with Brian Brohm being forced into duty. Edmonton’s lone loss was in Week 1 when the Argonauts made them look like Saskatchewan. Now for the first time all year, Matt Nichols is going to be forced to put up some points. He’s very unlikely to be sitting with a comfortable lead and there’s a distinct possibility that he’ll be trailing at some point as well. Ya ‘all remember Matt Nichols, no? When Mike Reilly was injured, Edmonton was written off because they had to use Nichols. Four games later after playing in extremely favorable situations, nobody is talking about how bad Nichols is anymore. There are likely going to be some reminders here. This is such a great spot for the Lions to come up big against a team that is still weak at the QB position and that will play its first tough road game of the season.
Dave Essler
Detroit +110
Gotta do it. For Sanchez's struggles he's been decent against the Royals (and perhaps motivated from a May loss in Detroit to the Royals). He is actually far better (BAA) against left handed hitters, the Royals' pen hasn't been nearly as dominant lately, either. It's the last game of a road trip for the Royals, a day game, so bags are packed for KC. Often times teams, especially off a loss, are looking to the plane ride a bit. Ventura has simply been nothing special at all, bad in June, and the Tigers already saw him (and hit him in a limited sample) this season. Kansas City has a comfortable lead in the division, the Tigers can still finish at or better than .500, so perhaps a reason to work hard. Now that the trade BS is over and they know where they stand, perhaps better focus. The Royals just haven't been quite as solid, losing five of the last seven games - so at this price I think the overnight move to the Royals is an over reaction to the fact that they (and Cueto) got beat last night. Cueto is better than Ventura. Sanchez is USUALLY better than Boyd, one would think. This game looks eerily like the Rays' game yesterday afternoon.
Chris Jordan
Let's forget for a moment we're talking about a team that ranks in the upper half of the league with its .254 batting average, and ranks in the upper half of the league with a road batting average of .249 and ranks third in the bigs with 62 home runs on the highway. That's all well and good, but Greinke is the reason we will see the Dodgers dominate today.
Greinke threw a one-hit shutout for eight innings against the Phillies last month, and comes into this one on a 5-1 run and career 2.03 ERA against Los Angeles. He will dominate in this early start, and especially against Buchanan.
Philly's right-hander is 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA this season, and though he had an impressive July (2-0 in three starts) I don't think he'll be able to hang against the Dodgers today.
Look for L.A. to break out offensively, and Greinke to dominate.
4* L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Braves over the Marlins.
A couple of rookie pitchers take to the mound tonight, and I will side with the home team in this one to get the series opening win.
Jose Urena is just 1-5 with a 4.37 ERA since joining the big club, while his counterpart Matt Wisler has enjoyed a solid 5-2 debut in his first 8 starts at this level, and better still is the fact the Braves have won the past 3 series meetings this year against the Marlins.
Atlanta is 7-2 in the season series against Miami, and a closer look at Wisler's record shows a perfect 3-0 mark at Turner Field thus far with a low 2.33 ERA in his home starts.
Go with Atlanta in the opener of this long 4 game set.
4* ATLANTA
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Thursday is the Yankees over the Red Sox.
New York dropped a 2-1 decision last night as the series is now even at a game apiece. The Yankees did not lose a series in the month of July, and I don't see them losing this series even with shaky CC Sabathia tossing the pearl.
Sabathia actually had one of his better starts this dismal season at Fenway Park to open the month of May, and he allowed just 2 runs in his 6 innings of work and the Yankees won a 3-2 decision.
Boston goes with with rookie Eduardo Rodriguez who did best the Yanks back in the month of July. Rodriguez' numbers are certainly better than Sabathia's, but I keep going back to the consistent winning baseball the Yankees have been producing this past month-plus.
Last night's Boston win snapped an 8 game road losing streak. Look for the Red Sox to head back to the losing side of things after tonight is in the books.
2* N.Y. YANKEES
Andy Stone
Boston Red Sox +136
E-Rod won against the Yankees in Boston, and I think he’ll win this one in New York. Rodriguez had one terrible start against the Angels that has really affected his ERA. When you remove that start Rodriguez has a 2.45 ERA in his last 29 and 1/3 innings. The Red Sox have won five of Rodriguez’s last six starts. Meanwhile, the New York Yankees have struggled with Sabathia on the bump. He has a 6.09 ERA over his last six starts. Sabathia has given up four or more runs in four of those six starts. I think Boston‘s lineup lights up Sabathia. The Red Sox beat the Yankees on Thursday.