SPORTS ADVISORS
Atlanta (55-53) at L.A. Dodgers (66-42)
The Dodgers, still carrying the best record in the major leagues, send left-hander Randy Wolf (5-6, 3.54 ERA) to the mound to open a four-game series against the Braves, who will counter with former Dodger Derek Lowe (11-7, 4.21) in a pitching rematch from Saturday.
Los Angeles got a leadoff home run from Rafael Furcal in the bottom of the first inning Wednesday, but couldn’t muster anything after that and fell 4-1 to the Brewers. The Dodgers have followed up a five-game winning streak by losing eight of their last 13, going 2-4 at home during this stretch. Still, Joe Torre’s club is on runs of 55-27 at home and 63-32 as a favorite.
Atlanta posted a 6-2 victory Wednesday at San Diego to take the final two games of a three-game set with the Padres. The Braves have split their last 10 contests and they’re on a 3-7 slide in their last 10 as a road pup.
These teams just met last weekend for the first time this season, with the Dodgers taking two of three in Atlanta. Despite those results, the host has still taken six of the last nine in this rivalry, with L.A. winning two of three at Dodger Stadium last year.
The Dodgers were on a 10-4 tear behind Wolf before losing his last two starts, both on the road. On Saturday in Atlanta, the southpaw gave up three runs on nine hits and two walks in six innings of a 4-3 loss. Wolf is 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA and a rash of no-decisions in 11 home starts this year, and he’s just 4-12 with a 5.32 ERA in 26 career appearances (24 starts) against Atlanta.
With Wolf throwing at home, Los Angeles is on positive streaks of 14-4 overall (8-3 this season) and 12-3 when the lefty is favored, and the Dodgers are on a 7-3 overall run with Wolf throwing in series openers.
The Braves have won five in a row backing Lowe, with the consistent right-hander throwing six innings each time and going 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Lowe was on the winning end against Wolf last Saturday, allowing all three runs on five hits and two walks. Lowe is 6-5 with a 4.52 ERA in 11 road starts this season, and he’s 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles. Additionally, Lowe, who pitched for L.A. from 2005-2008, has made 68 appearances (66 starts) at Dodger Stadium, going 33-23 with a 3.21 ERA.
The over for Los Angeles is on runs of 6-2-1 at home and 7-2 with Wolf facing N.L. East foes, but the under is 8-3 in L.A.’s last 11 home outings versus winning teams, and the under for the Braves is on stretches of 6-2 against lefty starters and 10-4-1 behind Lowe. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 7-2 in the last nine clashes overall, but the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
Boston (62-44) at N.Y. Yankees (65-42)
The first-place Yankees give the ball to right-hander Joba Chamberlain (7-2, 3.58 ERA) in the opener of a four-game series in the Bronx against the rival Red Sox, who will start struggling veteran John Smoltz (2-4, 7.12).
New York returns home after going 5-4 on a nine-game road swing, following a three-game skid in the middle of the trip by winning the last three games, including two in a row at Toronto. The Yankees, who rode a four-run seventh inning to an 8-4 victory, are on a batch of positive runs, including 27-10 overall, 7-1 versus the A.L. East, 5-1 in series openers, 43-18 at home and 18-8 against winning teams. Joe Girardi’s team has a 2½-game lead over Boston in the A.L. East.
Boston followed a four-game win streak by losing the last two nights at Tampa Bay, including Wednesday’s 6-4 setback. Still, the Sox remain on upswings of 27-12 in division play, 42-17 on Thursday and 33-16 in series openers. They’ve also owned the rivalry with the Yanks lately, winning nine in a row, including all eight meetings this year, and they are on a 4-1 surge at Yankee Stadium (2-0 this year).
The Yankees have won three in a row and six of seven with Chamberlain starting. On July 29 at Tampa, the righty threw eight innings of three-hit shutout ball, with two walks and five strikeouts, in a 6-2 victory. It was Chamberlain’s third straight win, and he’s allowed just two runs in 21 2/3 innings over that stretch, for a minuscule 0.83 ERA.
Chamberlain is 2-2 with a 4.37 ERA in 11 home starts this year, and he’s 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in eight career appearances (four starts) against Boston, with New York losing his two starts versus the Sox this season. With Chamberlain toeing the slab, the Pinstripes are on rolls of 14-3 at new Yankee Stadium, 5-0 in division contests and 6-1 against winning teams.
The Sox are 2-5 this season behind Smoltz, who returned to the lineup the last week of June. Last Friday, Smoltz gave up five runs on eight hits in six innings, but that was good enough to get the win in a 6-5 victory at Baltimore. Still, the 42-year-old is 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA in four road starts this season, and he’s 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two career regular-season interleague starts against New York.
The under is 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, and the under for Boston is on streaks of 8-3 on the road and 20-9-1 against winning teams. However, the over is 7-2 in the last nine overall for the Red Sox, and with Chamberlain starting for the Yanks, the over is on upswings of 5-2 overall and 8-3-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
DUNKEL
Florida at Washington
The Marlins look to salvage a game in the series and build on their 13-3 record in their last 16 games as a favorite between -110 and -150. Florida is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135).
Game 951-952: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.513; Washington (Stammen) 15.131
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-135); Over
Game 953-954: Colorado at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.118; Philadelphia (Lee) 16.265
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-185); Under
Game 955-956: Arizona at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 16.480; Pittsburgh (Hart) 13.231
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-120); Over
Game 957-958: NY Mets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hernandez) 16.051; San Diego (Richard) 13.132
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 3; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Over
Game 959-960: Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 16.249; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 15.246
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+130); Under
Game 961-962: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.603; Cleveland (Carmona) 16.818
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Under
Game 963-964: Baltimore at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 14.835; Detroit (Porcello) 14.519
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+135); Under
Game 965-966: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 16.751; White Sox (Danks) 17.006
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-150); Over
Game 967-968: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 14.926; Oakland (Cahill) 14.284
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Under
Game 969-970: Boston at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Smoltz) 15.683; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 16.516
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Over
Game 971-972: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 14.027; Kansas City (Chen) 14.125
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Over
WNBA
Seattle at Los Angeles
The Storm look to bounce back from their overtime defeat against Phoenix and build on their 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games following a SU loss. Seattle is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2).
Game 601-602: Atlanta at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 109.478; San Antonio 115.603
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 146 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 156 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Seattle at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 111.518; Los Angeles 111.856
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 133
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2); Under
Craig Trapp
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Over 10
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Love the over today as both Boston and New York can hit the HR with the best of them. This new ballpark of the NYY is a magnet when it comes to Homeruns. Today BOS turns to Smoltz on the mound who has not been good since arriving midseason. Even worse news for BOS fans he has given up 6 HR's over last 3 games. On the other side the NYY turn to Chamberlin who has been great lately, but will be on a pitch count. Boston has very professional hitters who will make Joba throw strikes and he will only make it 5 innings allowing 3 runs. Once BOS gets to the bullpen that is when they can start the fireworks. This one will be a HR contest and easily get over 10 runs. EASY OVER 10 is the free play for today
Red Dog Sports
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Los Angeles at Chicago White Sox
Play Over 9.5
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Ervin Santana has an ERA of 9.19 in his last 3 starts and LA has 62 overs and 37 unders this season with some pushes. Danks starts for Chicago and the White Sox have played their share of unders this year but look for an over on Thursday afternoon with the way the Angels are hitting and with Santana on the hill.
Brad Diamnd Sports
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Play: Phillies/Colorado UNDER the total
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Day game after a night affair should be telling for both clubs as the early start and line hurlers should insure the count stays The trading deadline acquisition Cliff Lee was super out in San Francisco leading Philly to a 5-1 win, their only in that series. Opposing Aaron Cook of Cook has been on fire this season. If umpire Tom Hallion is behind the plate we should note the home team has gone UNDER in 4 straight.
Rob Vinciletti
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1½
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The Yanks fit a nice system that is 21-3 and plays on certain home favorites off a road win that scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits while taking on an opponent that is coming off a road dog loss of 2 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs in the loss.While this system is 21-3 straight up it is still a remarkable 18-6 when considering the run line.The Home team wins this game by an average 6-2 score.In the pitching matchup the Yanks have J.Chamberlin and he has much better numbers at home than a struggling J.Smoltz does on the road.Smoltz in fact has a dreadful 9.10 era in his last 3 outings.Dont think he will have much success against this type of lineup the Yanks have out here tonight.As side bar to this series the Yanks as an organization are said to be sick of hearing their 0-8 vs the Redsox this year and will no doubt want to send a message in the first game here tonight.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Arizona -125 at PITTSBURGH
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Wednesday comp play winner on NY Yankees-Toronto OVER the total. Now 11-3-1 the last 15 days with our FREE plays.
For Thursday night, back Arizona to complete the sweep of Pittsburgh in the Steel City.
The Diamondbacks have captured the first two of this three game set, and they have now won 4 straight, and 5 of the 6 season series meetings this year against the Pirates.
True, Kevin Hart has looked solid, as he has won his last 3 starts, but Max Scherzer did just work 7 scoreless innings in a home win over Pittsburgh back on July 27th.
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Pittsburgh has lost their last 4, and 9 of their last 11, while Arizona has won 4 straight, and 6 of their last 7.
Stick with the hot D-Backs.
Play on Arizona.
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5♦ ARIZONA
Jeff Benton
Atlanta +125 at LA DODGERS
Bad call with Wednesday’s free play on the Blue Jays. Still, I’m 19-10 with my last 29 freebies, and I’ll get back to my winning ways Thursday by backing the Braves at the Dodgers.
First off, Los Angeles is struggling, losing eight of its last 13 games (2-4 at home). The slump isn’t all that surprising, as the Dodgers – as well as they’ve played all season – have been way overdue for a prolonged downturn.
Tonight, they face former teammate Derek Lowe for the second time in five days. On Saturday in Atlanta, Lowe held the Dodgers to three runs on five hits over six innings, earning a 4-3 victory. No doubt, Lowe will be even more pumped up tonight, returning to the stadium he called home for four seasons from 2005-2008. Last year, Lowe was incredible at Dodger Stadium, going 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA and a 0.93 ERA in 17 starts, and for his career, Lowe has 33 wins and a 3.21 ERA in Los Angeles.
Meanwhile, as was the case on Saturday in Atlanta, Lowe will be matched up against Randy Wolf. Wolf didn’t pitch horribly in that game, allowing three runs, nine hits and two walks and getting a no-decision. Still, his career numbers against the Braves are not pretty (4-12, 5.32 ERA in 26 games, including 24 starts).
Finally, the Braves have won five straight games in back of Lowe, with the right-hander going 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over this stretch, pitching exactly seven innings in all five games. By comparison, L.A. is just 3-5 in Wolf’s last eight starts. Take the value with what is sure to be an inspired Lowe in this contest.
3♦ ATLANTA
Dominic Fazzini
Boston at N.Y. YANKEES
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The Phillies rolled to a 7-0 victory Wednesday as a run-line pick to give me my fourth win in my last five complimentary selections. Let's keep this train a rollin' with another run-line winner today!
It's been well documented that the Yankees are 0-8 against the Red Sox this season. Well, that's all going to change today.
New York right-hander Joba Chamberlain (7-2, 3.58 ERA) has blossomed as a starter since the All-Star break, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in three outings. He allowed three hits in eight shutout innings against Tampa Bay on July 29.
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Chamberlain is 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in eight career games (four starts) against the Red Sox, and 2-2 with a 4.37 ERA in 11 home starts this year.
Boston starter John Smoltz (2-4, 7.12) has really struggled in seven starts this season, and he has gotten worse lately, going 1-2 with a 9.18 in three outings since the All-Star break.
The veteran right-hander won his last start, but he wasn't even sharp then, allowing five runs and eight hits in six innings at Baltimore.
Smoltz, who hasn't faced the Yankees since 2006, is 1-2 with a 7.40 ERA in four road starts this season.
The Yankees are entering this series on a three-game winning streak, while the Red Sox have dropped two straight and could be without left fielder Jason Bay, who aggravated a hamstring injury Wednesday. Everything is pointing in one direction with today's matchup: Take the Yankees on the run line.
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4♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1 1/2
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the Rockies at the bank to the Bank.
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Why not back Colorado here at Citizens Bank Park? The Rockies have been as good as any team over the past few months and to get a solid price back with a former All-Star on the hill in Aaron Cook is just fine with me.
I am a huge Cliff Lee fan and do believe that the reigning American League Cy Young award winner is awesome and will for sure help the Phillies. But this is a solid spot to go against him.
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Lee's first start out in San Francisco was great. he had that no-hitter into the fifth or sixth inning and wanted to do nothing less than show his new teammates how good he can be. Now after getting that out of the way I can see a little letdown here. You know that Lee was so geeked up in that last start and after getting that under his belt I can see him now get hit a little by a Colorado lineup which is definitely more powerful than what San Francisco brought to the table.
Look for Fowler, Hawpe, Tulowitzki, Helton and the Rox to get some licks in and for this Lee start to not go nearly as well as the first. Sure the Philllies can swing the sticks with the best of them ande are always scary but things have not been as great for Charlie Manual's club of late and hopefully it will play out that way one more time.
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The hottest team around plus an All-Star pitcher with a great sinker plus some jack equals a no-brainer!
1♦ Rockies
Ron Raymond
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NY Mets vs. San Diego
Play: OVER 8.0
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When ANY MLB Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 4 years - Playing on Thursday - 1st game of a series - Coming off a series loss - Coming off a 2 game losing streak; The OVER is 14-5-0 for the Home Favorite (SD) in this spot the L4Y.
Atlanta vs. LA Dodgers
Play: UNDER 8.0
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When ANY MLB Team played as a Road team - During the month of August - During a night game - Vs. Left handed pitchers - Coming off a series win - Coming off a day game - Coming off a 2 game winning streak; The UNDER is 11-5-3 for the Road Team (ATL) in this role since 1997.
DAVE COKIN
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TEXAS RANGERS / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Take TEXAS RANGERS
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It's been a very bad week for the Rangers, as they've dropped three in succession to the lowly A's. Texas needs to get some positive traction back by at least salvaging the getaway day finale, especially with the big series at Anaheim up next. Trevor Cahill has been fade material lately, so I'll give the nod to surprising Tommy Hunter and the Rangers here.
JIM FEIST
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ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS / PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Take UNDER
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A pair of weak hitting offensive teams meet here: Arizona is 18th in the majors in runs scored, the Pirates are 25th. Arizona has a terrific young arm in Max Scherzer, who has fanned 115 in 111 innings with a 3.80 ERA. Arizona has not seen Pittsburgh righty Kevin Hart this season, and the kid has been good, wtih a 2.60 ERA and a 3-1 record. Don't look for many runs, play the D-Backs/Pirates Under the total.
Ross Benjamin
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Baltimore Orioles
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The Baltimore starter David Hernandez enters the game in very good form off of his last 3 starts posting a stellar 2.08 ERA in that span. The Detroit starter Rick Porcello has been shaky over his last 4 starts posting a lofty 6.11 ERA. In 9 starts at home this season Porcello has not shown the best of form posting a 5.13 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. In spite of their win yesterday the Tigers are just 2-7 in the last 9 games versus AL East opponents. Play on the Baltimore Orioles as an underdog selection.
Tony Weston
The Rays come through last night as I delivered Comp Play Winner # 5 in a row. I’m making it 6 straight tonight as I’m taking the Over in the Red Sox-Yankees battle in the Bronx.
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The Total for this game is set at around 10 runs and these two will blow right past that.
Coming into this game the Over has been very prevalent for both teams. The Over has come in 7 of the Red Sox last 9 games as they’ve Totaled, on average, more than 12 1/2 runs per game (12.6).
The Yankees, on the other hand, have seen the Over go 4-0-1 their last five games as they’ve Totaled, on average, more than 13 runs per game (13.2) in that stretch.
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Also consider that the Over has come in 5 of the last 7 games started by the Yankees’ Joba Chamberlain and even though the Over is just 4-3 in John Smoltz seven starts for the Red Sox, the team has Totaled, on average, 13 runs per game with him on the mound.
Tonight will be no different as the Red Sox and Yankees score in bunches. Take the Over easily in this one tonight.
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3♦ RED SOX-YANKEES OVER