Karl Garrett
Texas -120 at OAKLAND
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Free play winner on Wednesday from the G-Man on Tampa Bay. Now 19-9 the last 28 days with my comp play selections.
Thursday afternoon, look for Texas to avoid an embarassing 4-game sweep at Oakland.
The Rangers have missed out on a prime chance to gain some ground in the AL West, as the Angels have struggled against the White Sox, but Texas has lost the first 3 against the 47-60 A's.
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That changes today, as Tommy Hunter has gone 3-1 his last 5 starts for Texas, while his counterpart Trevor Cahill is just 1-2 his last 3 starts with an alarming 6.75 ERA.
Oakland has now won the last 4 meetings against their division rival, but with Texas still sporting a 59-47 mark for the season, the G-Man just does not see a 4-game sweep being completed today by the bay.
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Texas the call here.
3♦ TEXAS
Scott Spreitzer
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New York Mets at San Diego Padres
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Livan Hernandez has pitched well in his last three outings, sporting a 2-0 mark with a 3.15 ERA. The veteran righty will face a lineup that shouldn't challenge those numbers. San Diego averages less than 3 1/2 rpg at home against righthanders, and they've scored just 13 total runs in five home games this month. The Friars will counter with former White Sox hurler, Clayton Richard. This could be another case of an AL starter coming over and dominating the NL. He shutdown Milwaukee in his first start as a Padre, and will no doubt love the pitcher's paradise, A.K.A., PETCO Park. Richard will face the banged-up Mets, who are scoring an average of just 2.5 rpg in road night games against southpaws.
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Play on: Under
Rocketman
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Florida @ Washington
Play: Florida
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Florida is 55-52 overall this year while Washington comes in with a 36-72 overall record this year. Washington is 15-41 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Washington is 35-94 last 3 years when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Washington is 12-32 against division opponents this year. Florida bullpen has a 2.32 ERA on the road this year. Washington bullpen has a 5.22 ERA overall this year. Chris Volstad is 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA his last 3 starts. Craig Stammen is 1-3 at home this year and has a 7.20 ERA his last 3 starts. Florida has won 9 of 11 meetings with Washington this year. Volstad is 1-0 against Washington since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Florida today!
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
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The Royals have lost seven of eight, giving up a lot of runs in the process as opponents have scored 7 or more runs in all seven losses. Look for them to bounce back this evening as they finally have a pitcher they can beat up on in Seattle's Jason Vargas, who has a 7.07 ERA in his last three outings overall and a 6.88 ERA in seven road starts. Since the start of last season, the Mariners are 7-26 following a game with 15 combined runs.
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Play on: Kansas City
John Ryan
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LAA Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: LAA Angels
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Anaheim as they face the CWS set to start at 2:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 46-19 making 29.1 units since 2003 for 71% winners with the average play a +104.6 dog. Play on any team that is a hot hitting team batting .300 or better over their last 15 games and starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings. Certainly the Anaheim offense has hidden a real starting pitching weakness for Anaheim. That will happen again today, but at some point in the near future their pitching problems will be evident and games will be tougher to win. The Angels are 13-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor fielding teams averaging 0.75+ errors/game over the last 2 seasons. The CWS are just 3-11 (-10.1 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season. The CWS rank 5th worst in MLB with 79 errors this season. Washington is worst with 98 errors. By comparison Toronto ranks best with just 41 errors made in 107 games played. A strong offense, like Anaheim, will make a poor fielding team pay a big price when those errors do occur. Anaheim starter Santana has struggled big time during the season, but most of those struggles have occurred in home starts. He has allowed a 255 BA and 4.28 ERA in road games. CWS starter Danks has allowed 15 ER in his past 4 starts (4,4,3,4) and 24 hits spanning 23.2 IP. He does rank 9th in the AL in BA allowed at 241, but the fatigue factor is quite evident allowing more hits than innings pitched and having thrown a ton of pitches. He has thrown a minimum of 97 pitches in his last 13 starts! Take Anaheim.
Freddy Wills
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Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Florida Marlins
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Take Marlins -135 1 Dime Free Play (1-5scale) My lowest ranking on a free pick is a 1 dimer I still consider this a strong play considering I have been on the Marlins Game 1 on the run line and then money line last night for my POD both losers! It's been a rough couple of days but I was expecting this. Don't think for one minute that I let an 11 game POD streak go to my head. I'm smarter than that and I know in this business you are only as good as your last win. Clearly I'm not chasing or this would be another POD. Again the hole I thought Nick Johnson would leave in this lineup is not what I thought, but I still think this young team (Nats) will run into issues with a quality starter. Alright let's break it down on Thursday with a frustrating pitcher Chris Volstad and the reason why this is a premium play. Volstad has solid stuff he can strike hitters out, but struggles with his command. If you don't believe me in two starts against the Nationals this year he has 12 K's in 9.1 IP. Just shows you the capability he has to dominate this Nats lineup, but in those 2 starts he had 9 BB, and only 8 H, but that's 17 base runners he handed out yet he only gave up 4ER. Just imagine if he has command of his fastball. Which he has had in his last start with just 1 BB. In fact in 4 of his last 6 games he's given up 1BB or less, but in between were two 4BB performances and that's what worries me about him and the reason this is not a premium selection. The Marlins are 12-5 in Volstad's last 17 road starts. On the other side of the ball we have Craig Stammen who really has not impressed me this year. The Marlins collectively are 7-20 and Hanley Ramirez has 2 hits. Ramirez has been solid during day play and the Marlins actually score more runs per game during the day than they do at night. It's not like they don't have a plan for Stammen as I said they faced him before and they were successful. So let's get some of the money back that we lost on the Marlins the last 2 days which was 6 units.
Vernon Croy
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Arizona D-Backs
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Diamondbacks are 11-2 in their last 13 games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Max Scherzer (6-6, 3.80) owned the Pirates in his only outing against them this season allowing 5 hits over 7 innings while striking out 8 batters and allowing no earned runs. I look for Scherzer to have another solid outing against the Pirates Thursday night and the Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The Pirates are hitting just .227 as a team over their last 7 games while their opponents are hitting .293 against them over those games and the Diamondbacks are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games against a right hand starter. Take the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday night.
Evan Altemus
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Minnesota at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland
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Profile: Minnesota has struggled on the road this season, and this is a great chance to fade them at an underdog price. Nick Blackburn enters this game in poor current form, getting hit hard by the LA Angels twice and Oakland. Cleveland's offense has still been performing despite some of the trades. They hammered Minnesota's pitching staff last night as well. The Twins bullpen is really struggling lately as well, posting an ERA of 7.00 over their last 10 games. Fausto Carmona will be making his second start since coming back to the rotation. He pitched well in his first start, and I expect him to pitch well today also. Take the underdog Indians to hammer Blackburn and the struggling Twins bullpen.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
Colorado at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -1.5
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I want to back Cliff Lee in every one of his first few starts, as I feel he will absolutely dominate National League line-ups. There is a significant difference in the quality of line-ups between the two leagues, evident by the success that C.C. Sabathia had last year when he came over to the Brewers. This price is very high to pay however, which is why the correct selection is the run line. Colorado's Aaron Cook has pitched very well recently, but he has faced some very weak line-ups. Philadelphia's line-up is much better than what he has been used to facing, so I expect the Phillies to score enough runs off of him and the Rockies pen to win this game by two runs or more. Colorado also really struggles against lefties, especially on the road. Philadelphia won easily last night, and I expect them to do the same in this game.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
LA Angels at Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
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I feel that momentum is one of the most important things to look at when handicapping baseball. The Angels were coming off of a dominating performance at Minnesota, but they had to take a day off and travel to Chicago. In addition, Minnesota's dome plays very favorably to their style of play. However, the White Sox have been a very good home team this season, especially recently, as they have won several home games against the best teams in the American League. They won the first two games in this series against the Angels as well, and I look for them to continue their win streak in this day game. Chicago has a huge starting pitching advantage with John Danks going against Ervin Santana. Santana has been rocked in several of his starts, and the horrible Angels bullpen could be called upon early if he doesn't go deep into the game. Look for Chicago to continue their good play here and get the win.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
LT Profits
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers
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This game features two of the brightest young pitching prospects in baseball, as David Hernandez and the Baltimore Orioles take on Rick Porcello and the Detroit Tigers.
The 24-year-old Hernandez has shown great composure in his first eight Major League starts, going a respectable 3-3 while pitching for a bad team with a very nice 3.28 ERA. Most impressive is the fact that he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his eight starts including the last six in a row. Hernandez made his big league debut vs. these Tigers, and he promptly limited them to just one run and five hits in 5.2 innings.
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Porcello is one of the youngest players in the majors at just 20 years old, yet all that he has done is win nine games in his first full season. Sure, he has a rather high 4.36 ERA, but he has the advantage of facing the Orioles for the first time ever, and he is facing a Baltimore lineup that is batting a modest .244 on the road this season while averaging 4.17 runs. Porcello also has the support of a Detroit bullpen that owns a 3.64 ERA the last 10 games.
The Under is 7-2 in the last nine Detroit home games as well as 6-2-1 in the last nine Baltimore road games, and we look for those trends to continue here.
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Pick: Orioles/Tigers Under 9.5
GREG SHAKER
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New York Mets at San Diego Padres
Play: Mets +127
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Through all of the Mets problems this year, two things have remained constant. They have a very good Bullpen and have been in the Top 5 of all Pens in the Major League's this entire year, and they have the ability to hit lefthanded pitching. They have done that at a .287 Clip this year and that helps puts them near the Top of that category as well with the lefty hitting index. These Padres had been playing pretty good ball until the Braves series when they ran into some good pitching. This team is still not hitting this year, especially at this park and are just 5-13 last 18 because of that. The Mets Thrower tonight is finally doing what has been expected of him and he has put together 3 solid efforts. He has had control problems this year and that has been his downfall. His last 3 have seen much better results getting the ball over the plate and where he wants it over the plate. A lot of Met's Players are stepping their game up with all of the injuries, including Will Venable who has been Hot and Angal Pagan who has been Hot, Hot, Hot. The Mets are still not out of the Wildcard Race. They have to maintain until they get some people back in the lineup. The Task will not be easy verses Richard who has been throwing well, but I do think New York's Lefty Hitting lineup will get enough runs tonight and will beat a team that has pretty much packed it in. We are certainly getting a very good number here as well and the Mets have enjoyed this roll, winning their last 6 of 7 as a Dog of +110 to +150. That should not surprise us since being a New York Based team adds extra pressure when they are supposed to win. They are not supposed to do that tonight, but I think they will.
Mr. Vegas Wins
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Orioles at Tigers
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The Tigers have had good pitching and weak hitting mush of the season and they are on a 21-9-2 run under the total. For this game, a pair of decent pitchers are on the hill. Baltimore righty David Hernandez has a 3.28 ERA on the season and against the Tigers he has a 1.59 ERA. Detroit starter Rick Porcello does not walk anyone and the Orioles have never faced him. These are not very powerful offenses, either.
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Play the Orioles/Tigers Under the total.
GoodFella
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Baltimore @ Detroit UNDER 9.5
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Two very talented young pitchers with great stuff going in this game. Hernandez has been outstanding in his L/3 starts and he faced Boston twice and the Yankees in those 3 starts, and he has a sparkling, 2.08 ERA in those 3 starts. Hernandez also faced Detroit way back on May 28th, and held them to 1 run, 5 his in 5 2/3 IP. Detroits young stud has never faced Baltimore, so that is a clear cut advantage for the young hurler the 1st time through their lineup tody. I really like that we have a very important number in regards to MLB totals of 9 covered, as we need 10 runs to beat us here. I look for strong efforts out of both Hernandez and Porcello today, and keep this game UNDER the 9.5 for us.
Spartan
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Boston at N.Y. YANKEES
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I am suggesting a wager on the Yankees as they open a big series with those same Red Sox who now come limping into the Bronx with thier arch rivals. First game pitching matchup is not what the Sox need here as John Smoltz takes the ball. Was a day when that was a beautiful thing, no longer the case. Stubborn fact is Smoltz has yet to provide Terry Francona with one single quality start. Opposing Smoltz is 23 year old righty Joba Chamberlain who was nails his last start against the Rays tossing 8 frames of shutout ball vs the Rays. Also a fact that the guy is 3-0 with a sick 0.83 era since the All Star break. I see the Yankees coming out focused and taking care of business in this opener. I'll let the books choke on thier heavy chalk and hit them with a run line winner. Personally I think that is the route to go here guys.
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For those interested, I did nail another Triple Star last night bringing my mark with those to 42-16 and now 16 of the last 18 winners! I have my card up for tonight and it includes yet another Triple Star Bomb & a pair of Doubles. Also pregame has some very attractive deals going on our football packages that are certainly worth taking a hard look at if you plan on being an active player once the season kicks off. You can invest in packages that take you right through the Super Bowl and all College Bowls at a very moderate rate, particularly when compared to some of the other so called experts prices.
Nite Owl Sports
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Atlanta Dream @ San Antonio Silver Stars
3 units: Atlanta Dream +4
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The SA Stars are in an unfavorable situation here after a low scoring win over the lowly (TY) LA Sparks in their last game following two consecutive OT losses (4 games in just one week, which is alot for any WNBA team), and then a cross country trip back from the West coast,. Moreover, this tired SA team is not only a crappy 2-6 ATS after their last 8 wins TY (compared to Atl at 5-3 ATS off a win, which they are for this game), but also 2-5 ATS TY after scoring < 75 points (like they did last game) and 3-6 ATS after allowing < 75 points (like they also did last game).
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In a desperate attempt to salvage what appears to be a lost season, SA signed last year’s starting center Ann Wauters (15 ppg LY) to a contract for the rest of the year, but we believe it’s a case of “too little, too late.” While Wauters would help if SA could somehow back into a playoff spot, she has had limited playing time and effectiveness in the two games since her return – more specifically, 8 points and no “boards” in 15 minutes in SA’s loss at Seattle, and just 6 points on 3-8 shooting (and 5 boards) in 26 minutes in Stars’ last game, their win at LA. So we don’t believe her presence will make all that much difference for this game, at least ATS.
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After LY’s nightmarish season, Atlanta has been a “dream” for their supporters TY, especially lately, as they have gone a ridiculous 9-0-1 ATS in their L10 games, incl 5-0-1 ATS in their L6 roadies, with an average score of “tie” in those six road games. And Dream is well rested, with just two games since the All Star break, and not having played since August 1.We went with Atl recently in their last road game, at Detroit, where Shock was in virtually the same situation (see above) as SA finds itself in here, and Dream rewarded us with a SU win.
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While it’s a bit of a stretch to predict a SU win by Dream here (given that they were just 2-4 SU in those same L6 roadies where they went 5-0-1 ATS), take the points and Atl for 3 units at +4 or 4.5, and make it 4 units if you can get them at +5> (there are a few 5s out there this AM), as we expect the Dream to at least cover ATS in an expected close game. And while we realize that the WNBA is not the most popular viewing sport, especially for us guys, why not take advantage of opportunities like this to pick up some extra for the upcoming football season?