Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 1,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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The Brewers and Cardinals open the first of a four-game series in St. Louis this evening in a series that's seen Milwaukee struggle of late, going 7-13 the last 20 games. To make matters worse, Randy Wolf is 0-4 in his career team starts in this park. With Wolf sporting a 5.75 ERA in his last five starts, look for him to dip to 4-9 in his last 13 team starts overall. It ain't broke and we're not about to fix it. Back the Redbirds here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

MTi Sports
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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
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The Mariners are 0-12 when Ryan Rowland-Smith starts as a road dog vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date and the Yankees are 13-0 when CC Sabathia starts as a 200+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches. As a team, Seattle is 0-14 as a dog of more than 110 when facing a team that lost at least their last two games, losing by an average of 4.3 runs. As a team, the Yankees are 18-0 as a 140+ favorite over a team with a winning record of at least 400 when they are off a shutout loss. Since the start of the 2008 season, all of the Yankees wins in this situation were by multiple runs including three from this season. Consider taking the Yankees on the run-line.

Matt Fargo
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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Tampa Bay was able to salvage a split with the Red Sox with a win last night and it looks to carry that into Minnesota for the start of a big four-game series. The Rays have hit a rough patch and it all came to the forefront with the dugout fracas between B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria but like was said then, that can actually bring a team closer together than send it further apart. Tampa Bay owns a 25-13 record on the road which is still the best in baseball. Minnesota won two of the final three games against the Tigers to reclaim the divisional lead after Detroit moved into first place briefly for just a day. Minnesota continues to be strong at home with a 25-14 record but after a 20-9 start, the Twins are just 5-5 at home in their last 10 games. Jeff Neimann was on the wrong end of Edwin Jackson’s no-hitter last Friday so he was hit with just his second loss of the season despite another great outing. He has been the best pitcher for the Rays on a team filled with great pitchers so it shows the season he is having. He has a 2.72 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 15 starts, 12 of which have been quality outings and he has been spectacular on the road. He is 4-0 with a 3.02 ERA in seven road starts this season with Tampa Bay going a perfect 7-0 in those games. Minnesota goes with Carl Pavano and he is having a solid season as well but no quite the same as his counterpart. He has a 3.33 ERA though 15 starts, 11 of which have been quality performances so he is right there as well. The problem is that he has tossed four straight quality outings and the last time he did that, he imploded in his fifth straight attempt as he allowed six runs on 10 hits in only four innings against Toronto. The Rays also fall into a solid situation. Play on American League teams that are hitting .265 or less and starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or less over his last 10 starts going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better. This situation is 60-26 (69.8 percent) since 1997. 3* Tampa Bay Rays

Cajun Sports
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Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Oakland Athletics
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The A’s look to rebound after losing Game 2 on Wednesday night in Baltimore 9 to 6 which tied the series at a game apiece. Oakland will send Trevor Cahill to the bump while the Orioles will hang their hopes on Jake Arrieta. Cahill and the A’s are 9-3 versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season and 16-3 when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 8-31 versus AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game this season, 4-20 when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season and 1-16 versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. We will back the visitor here as they take Game 3 and the series in Baltimore on Thursday night.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Oakland A’s 5 Baltimore Orioles 2

Rob Vinciletti
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Mariners vs. Yankees
Play: Under 9
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This game fits a totals system that has 11 of 13 times. What we want to do is play the under for home favorites of -200 or higher if they lost as a home favorite at -140 or higher and had 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a road win and scored 5 or more runs. The Yankees big 7-0 loss which saw them get 2 hits sets up this totals play. They have their horse today on the mound in CC Sabathia. Sabathia has allowed just 1 run in his last 15 innings vs Seattle and he has been lights out in his last 3 starts with a 1.57 era. Seattle counters with Rowland- Smith today. Smith has been decent vs the Yankees in his 2 lifetime starts. The Yankees have gone under in 6 of their 8 Thursday games and Seattle has trouble with left handed pitchers scoring just around 3 runs per game. Look for this one to play Under.

Info Plays

3* on Los Angeles Angels -121
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Reasons the Angels win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (LA ANGELS) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. This is a 44-9 ML System hitting 83% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 7-1 this season alone.
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2.) Jared Weaver. The righty is 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.092 WHIP this season. Weaver is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA through 7 home starts this year as well. Finally, Weaver is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. Texas while C.J. Wilson is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. Bet the Angels at home.

Jim Feist
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San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Take: San Francisco Giants
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Madison Bumgarner made his debut last week, a top prospect for the pitching-rich Giants. The kid did well, allowing 5 hits, 1 walk and 5 strikeouts in 7 innings. Colorado has never faced him before. The Rockies go with Aaron Cook who has struggled all season, at 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA. He's walking too many batters and he's already lost to the Giants this season, with a 7.50 ERA walking 5 in 6 innings with 7 hits. The home team is far too big a favorite. Play the Giants.

Tom Freese
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San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Colorado starter Aaron Cook has allowed 4 or less runs in 8 of his last 9 starts. The Rockies are 65-32 their last 97 home games. Colorado is 8-2 their last 10 games as favorites. Cook is 6-2 his last 8 home starts. The Rockies are 24-9 their last 33 home games vs. lefty starters. San Francisco starter Madison Bumgarner lost his first ever start to Boston last Sunday. Now he is pitching in Coors Field. Good luck with that. The Giants are 5-15 their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. The Giants are 2-10 their last 12 games as underdogs

Gill Alexander
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HOU (+215) vs SDP
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Moehler is coming off 2 solid outings v the potent Texas lineup, 6IP, 2ER, 1H and 5IP, 2ER, 8H performances. We successfully backed him as a +275 dog in that latter outing. Garland is just off a 6.2IP, 1ER, 4H outing v Fla but before that got touched up for 4ER each in consecutive outings v Tor and Bal. Moehler has a 3.16ERA in 5 starts v SD while Garland has a 3.00ERA in 6 outings v Hou. So,pretty even. Sabermetrics bare that out, as well. Moehler has a 5.03FIP and 5.21xFIP but also has a .325 BABIP, meaning we should expect his fielding independent stats to come down as he has had a bit of a bad luck 2010 thus far. Garland has a 4.06FIP and 4.34xFIP this season, but also possesses a .278 BABIP, meaning he's had his share of good fortune up until this point in 2010. By the way, his 0.92ERA-FIP mark is the 16th widest discrepancy to the negative side in all of baseball, meaning we should be on the lookout for embedded line value whenever he takes the mound. And value is what we've found in this one. For all the perception of Houston being a bad club, they had a .500 June. This line has at least a half dollar of intrinsic value on the Astros. Let's seize the opportunity.

Hollywood Sports
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Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
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Take the Minnesota Twins over the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday. Carl Pavano is having his way on the mound right now as he has pitched two straight complete games while allowing only one earned run over that span. For the season, the veteran enjoys a 9-6 record with a 3.33 ERA. He squares off against the young phenom for the Rays' in Jeff Niemann. For the year, Niemann sports an impressive 6-2 record and 2.72 ERA. But as with the case with many young hurlers (and Niemann last season as well), the opposition wants to get after Niemann when he is on the road where his 3.02 ERA and .225 opponent's batting average are a bit worse than his strong 2.44 ERA and .211 opponent's batting average when at home. With Niemann on the hill facing a team with a winning record, the Rays have lost four of their last five games.
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Additionally, there is an underlying sabermetric statistic we find intriguing that favors Pavano over Niemann in this contest: Batting Average for line-drive Balls put Into Play (LD BABIP). Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The MLB average for line-drives that go for base hits is typically in the .715-.730 range. Niemann is allowing .757 of the line-drives hit off him to be base hits. We surmise that this statistic is indicative of the fact that Niemann is susceptible to losing this "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle from time-to-time. On the other hand, Pavano has a low .695 LD BABIP this season which is encouraging regarding his overall efforts this season. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starters Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like LD BABIP, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Los Angeles Angels -121

It's hard not to like the Angels at home tonight with Weaver on the hill. After all, the Angels are 40-18 in his last 58 home starts. In addition, the Angels are 5-0 in his last 5 Thursday starts, 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. the Rangers. C.J. Wilson has been strong for Texas this year, but he is carrying a 12.00 ERA in 2 career starts versus LA. He was shelled for 7 runs when he first faced the Angels in 2005. The next time he saw them, 5 seasons later, he was lit up for 7 runs again. Plus, the Rangers are 0-4 in Wilson's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. There is also a very strong system working in our favor tonight. Plays on home teams with a money line of -100 to -150, an average offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game, against a good AL starter with an ERA of 4.20 or better, with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start, are 44-9 the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that this situation is 7-1 already this season. Take the Angels.

Rocketman

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Philadelphia is now 41-35 overall this year while Pittsburgh comes in with a 27-51 overall record on the season. Pittsburgh is 7-26 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh has now lost 7 out of their last 9 games overall. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.2 runs per game overall, 3.4 runs per game at home and 3.6 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Daniel McCutchen is 0-3 with an 11.00 ERA in all games this year, 0-3 with an 11.65 ERA in all starts this year, 0-1 with a 10.56 ERA at home and 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA his last 3 starts. Phillies are 3-0 when Hamels takes the mound against Pittsburgh since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Phillies on the Runline tonight!

Steve Merril

Astros vs. Padres
Play: Over 7.5

The suddenly hot Padres bats welcome the Houston Astros to town. San Diego scored 22 runs in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies with 13 of those runs coming last night. Brian Moehler gets the start for Houston. He's 1-3 with a 6.37 ERA in six starts this season. On the road, Moehler is sporting an 8.34 ERA and a 2.35 WHIP in four starts. He has faced the Padres five times in his career with three of those games going Over the total. In limited at-bats, Adrian Gonzalez (5-12), David Eckstein (3-9), Scott Hairston (2-6), Jerry Hairston Jr. (1-3), and Nick Hundley (1-3) hit Moehler well. The Astros bullpen hasn’t helped their starters as they own a 4.81 ERA on the road. San Diego’s Jon Garland struggled big time in the month of June. Outside of his last start against the Marlins, he had a 6.38 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Michael Bourn (5-13), Jason Michaels (4-8), Jeff Keppinger (2-5), Hunter Pence (2-5), and Humberto Quintero (2-2) all hit Garland well. Houston has scored 19 runs in their last three games; they’ve gone Over the total in six of their last eight games. San Diego has gone Over in 21 of their 42 home games where they hit .255 as a team. With both pitchers in bad current form, we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Astros and Padres tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS
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Cincinnati +1.32 over CHICAGO
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Let’s see if we have this right. The Cubbies just lost a series to a Pirates team that had dropped 17 in a row on the road. Not only did they lose the series but the Cubbies scored a total of four runs in three games off the worst pitching staff in the majors. So, yeah, the Reds will turn to a rookie call-up making his first major league start and the Cubbies have its ace, Carlos Silva going but so what. Silva is having a great year but it could blow up at any time because this guy was a career stiff for the last seven years and this start was pushed back a couple of days because of a nagging hamstring injury. The Reds have also seen Silva twice and the last time they torched him to the tune of 10 hits in just five innings. As mentioned earlier, Travis Wood debuts. In 98 innings with AAA-Louisville this year, he has 97 Ks, 23 BBs, 3.03 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. After a phenomenal season in '09 (1.21 ERA in Double-A prior to a promotion to Triple-A), the 23 year-old struggled at the beginning of '10 before he turned it around. He's been sensational in the month of June. Wood isn't a dominator nor is he a flamethrower. His fastball sits between 87-91 mph, but he's developed an above average cutter to add to his already plus-plus changeup. The question remains as to whether this type of arsenal will succeed in the Majors. His polish and feel for pitching is off the charts, but his breaking ball is below average. Wood's changeup, however, may be one of the better ones in the minors. He uses the same arm speed as his fastball and it features late, diving action. Oh, one last thing. He’s not being asked to fool the Yanks or Red Sox here. The Reds are superior in every way, they’re coming off a series win against the Phillies and they’ve won seven of its last nine. The Cubbies are a beat up team right now both physically and mentally and in no way does this putrid host warrant being this high a price over the Reds. Play: Chicago +1.32 (Risking 2 units).

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CLEVELAND +1.41 over Toronto
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The Blue Jays –1.50 on the road? Are you kidding? Yeah, Shaun Marcum is having a remarkable season but in order to win a baseball game you have to score runs and that’s something the Jays have not been able to do for weeks. Over the last week, Toronto has made Jamie Moyer, Jake Westbrook and Aaron Laffey look like Koufax, Gibson and Drysdale. The Jays have lost five of six and that includes three straight to these Indians. Marcum has some troubling monthly trends including falling BPV (107 April, 87 May, 77 June), rising xERA (3.41, 3.95, 4.46) and his command is falling off too. Remember, Marcum missed all of last year and we’re now into July, thus his durability comes into question and he’s most certainly trending downwards. Justin Masterson is 2-7 and his surface starts don’t look very good. However, he’s had some bad luck this year due to a 35% hit rate and 67% strand rate. Masterson’s xERA (3.80) is more than a run below his actual ERA (5.21) and that’s a good sign. Also note that he has 72 K’s in 86 frames and that he’s been better at home and what we have here is an undervalued pitcher vs an overvalued one and you also can’t ignore the fact that the Jays are reeling. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +1.41 (Risking 2 units).

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Houston +2.15 over SAN DIEGO
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The Astros are 17 games under .500 and that early season deep funk has left this team as perhaps the most undervalued in the business. The Astros are so much better than its record and while Brian Moehler is not to be trusted ever, Jon Garland as a better than 2-1 favorite is insane. Baseball is a funny game and every day we see examples of why laying juice constantly is bad strategy. Take for example, the Texas Rangers. They were and still are on a big roll. They recently went on a run of 13 wins in 14 games and the only pitcher that beat them over that stretch is none other than Brian Moehler. That game was in Texas and any pitcher in this league has the potential to have a great game at Petco Park. Anyway, the Astros are scoring runs these days and in fact are coming off a series win in Milwaukee in which they scored 19 runs in three games and that includes four runs in six innings over previously untouchable Yovani Gallardo. As for Jon Garland, well, year after year it's the same: 200 IP, mid-4's xERA, no K's, double-digit wins. Every year his first half is better than his second half and that teases us into thinking there may be more but there's never any more. The sea air of San Diego and Petco Field clearly agree with Garland. Thing is, his record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. He’s issuing a lot more walks than usual and while Garland has also struck out more and his ERA sure looks sweet, beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand % are making his season and anytime you can get anything close to this tag against him you should grab it. Play: Houston +2.15 (Risking 2 units).

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SASKATCHEWAN +3 over Montreal
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The Als are still the cream of the crop in the CFL and beat these Riders three times last season including that famous Grey Cup game in what has been called the worst beat of all time. Montreal is virtually the same team as last year and they’re never going to be easy to beat. The Riders are always tough at home and that makes them equally as tough to wager against. Darian Durant is back at QB and if the protection isn’t there, history suggests he’ll throw some picks. Still, he’s quite capable of a great game, as the Riders offense should prove to be one of the most potent. One cannot ignore the home-field advantage here. Saskatchewan is football country and these fans are among the most passionate in the world. The bottom line is that this is a tough opener to wager on. Montreal is potent both on defense and offense but a Grey Cup hangover may appear in the first week. We all know the Roughies want revenge and with that, it’s talent and home field advantage, expect the Roughriders to hang around and perhaps even come out victorious. Play: Saskatchewan +3 (No bets).

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CALGARY –13 over Toronto
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The Argos were a complete dumpster-fire last season, as each week got progressively worse. The Argos won just once over its final 14 games and as a result, a complete overhaul ensued. Enter new but familiar head coach Jim Barker. That’s nice, it really is but Barker’s play-calling abilities have never been successful. He’s good at evaluating talent but he’s awful at calling the shots. Besides, the Argos have the least talent in the league and it’s not close. They have question marks at every key position and that includes QB, in which NFL castoff Cleo Lemon starts and he’s never thrown a regular season pass in the CFL. Furthermore, Lemon has zero proven WR’s to throw the ball to. The Argos were competitive in the pre-season but don’t be fooled by that. The Argos were playing their hearts out in the preseason while every other team was showing nothing and evaluating personnel. The Stamps will open at home and while the first week of the season is almost always a mystery, this one has no mystique whatsoever. The Stamps are as good as any team in the West and thus, these games against weak East opponents are crucial in terms of where they’ll finish in the standings. The Stamps will leave nothing to chance here. They’re superior on offense and they’re superior on defense. They’re playing a completely overhauled and under-talented Argos squad that has very little chance of winning more than five games this season. There will be no surprises or near upsets in this one and it says here the Stamps cruise. Play: Calgary –13 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).