EZWINNERS
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New York Yankees -345
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The Yankees starting pitcher CC Sabathia is really rounding into form, no pun intended! Sabathia is has really turned it up during the month of June and is pitching as well as anyone in the majors this month. Sabathia has allowed a total of nine runs in 37 innings pitched for an ERA of only 2.19 while ringing up 35 total strike outs. The Mariner's starting pitcher Ryan Rowland-Smith has not done much expect lose this season. Rowland-Smith is only 1-7 in sixteen starts this season with an ERA of 6.18. I don't expect those numbers to improve for him against a Yankees team that hits southpaws very hard. The Yankees are 14-3 in Sabathia's last seventeen starts as a home favorite and the Mariners are only 7-24 in their last thirty one games as a road underdog of +$200 or more. Look for the Yankees to win this series deciding game with their ace on the mound. Play on New York.
John Ryan
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San Antonio Silver Stars vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Play: Los Angeles Sparks +2.5
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3* graded play on Los Angeles as they host San Antonio is WNBA action set to start at 10:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Los Angeles will win this game. The simulator also shows that SA will shoot between 45 to 48% from the floor and that LA will score between 78 and 82 points. Both of these are lethal to SA as they are just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games when their opponents make 45% to 48% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; -31 ATS (-29.1 Units) when they allow 78 to 82 points in a game since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 106-47 against the money line since 2004. Play against road teams versus the money line and is a poor defensive team allowing 73+ points/game on the season facing an opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. Take LA.
Craig Trapp
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Rangers vs.Angels
Play: Over 8
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You don't need to even look at the stats to know that these two teams are super hot when it comes to the win and scoring column. In fact TEX is averaging over 6 runs in last 10 games and have won of 8 of last 10. LAA aren't far behind those totals as they are averaging over 6 runs as well going 6-4 in L10 games. Wilson vs Weaver might be a little low scoring to start but it won't stay that way as the fireworks get warmed up for the long holiday weekend. Play the over, trust me here!
Jack Jones
Oakland A's -136
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Big advantage on the mound Thursday for Oakland and big advantage in this series. The A's are 16-4 vs. Baltimore over the last 3 seasons. Dating back further, Oakland is 56-20 in their last 76 meetings with the Orioles. That includes a 36-15 road record in their last 51 games played in Baltimore. Trevor Cahill has been the A's best starter this season, going 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in 12 starts. Cahill is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 3 career starts vs. Baltimore as well. He gave up just 1 earned run and 5 base runners in 6 innings of a 6-1 win over the Orioles back on May 26th earlier this season.
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It's pretty easy to fade Jake Arrieta of the Orioles here considering he has posted a 6.64 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in 4 starts this season. And it's not like he has faced great offensive teams considering three of those four starts came against the Nationals, Padres and Giants. Cahill is 16-3 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 4-20 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. The Orioles are 24-53 this season and I cannot see them taking this series from the A's, who have owned Baltimore. Cahill is a safe bet tonight. Roll with Oakland Thursday.
Jeff Saad
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Rays at Twins
Play: Twins
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The Rays played at Boston last night and now head to Minnesota, a slumping team with some internal divisions. They haven’t faced Minnesota righty Carl Pavano yet this season, and the veteran has been sharp, with a 3.33 ERA and 9 wins. His last three starts he’s been sensational, with a 1.44 ERA, 2 walks in 25 innings.
Dwayne Bryant
STL (-128) vs MIL
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Pretty small price to pay for a talented Cardinals team playing at home (where they are 25-13 on the season) off a home loss. Blake Hawksworth is nothing special, but he hasn't allowed a run versus Milwaukee in six relief appearances spanning eight innings. He should be good for five solid innings, and the Cards pen has been very tough at Busch Stadium this season (2.68 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .206 OBA).
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Randy Wolf is a lefty and the Cards are known to struggle against lefties, which is one reason why this is just a SMALL play. But they've hit .289 and scored 5.4 runs per game against southpaws over their last five outings, so this looks like as good a time as any to back them in this situation. Wolf has a 1.51 WHIP on the road, mostly due to him issuing 30 walks in just 49 innings of work. I think the Cards can take advantage.
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St. Louis has only lost back-to-back home games ONCE this season. I like their chances of avoiding that scenario again tonight. Take St. Louis/Hawksworth over Milwaukee/Wolf for a SMALL play tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Washington Nationals +119
Santana hasn't had his ace stuff this season. He's been shelled in back-to-back starts, giving up 9 runs in 12 innings of work. The Mets are 1-5 in his last 6 starts and they have lost 6 of his 8 road starts this season. Santana has faced the Nats once this season and he was crushed, giving up 5 runs in 5 innings. Conversely, Hernandez is having a great season for Washington, especially at home where he is 4-1 (7-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.81. The Nats have won both of his starts against the Mets this season, in which he has allowed only 2 runs in 13 1/3 innings. Looking back further, the Nationals are 13-6 in Hernandez's last 19 starts vs. the Mets. The Mets are only 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in this matchup and only 1-6 in their last 7 meetings in Washington. We'll take the Nats.
Black Widow
1* on Colorado Rockies -139
Colorado gets the call as Thursday's free pick against the struggling San Francisco Giants. The Giants have lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall. Their chances of winning with the young Madison Bumgarner tonight are slim to none. Aaron Cook has been awesome this season at home, going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in 6 home starts for Colorado. The Rockies are 4-0 in Cook's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 50-23 in their last 73 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Colorado is 24-9 in their last 33 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 games as an underdog. San Francisco is an underdog for a good reason tonight, as they are overmatched on the mound and struggling. Take Colorado on the Money Line.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays +111
The Rays got a nice confidence boost at the plate with a convincing win over division rival Boston, and I like them to keep rolling tonight. It actually hasn't been a bad play to go against the Twins in the first game of a series considering they have lost their last 4 series openers. Plus, they are only 23-49 in their last 72 games against the AL East. The Rays have been at their best on the road this season, especially with Niemann on the bump. Niemann is 4-0 (7-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.02 in his road starts this season. You also have to like the fact that the Rays are a perfect 12-0 the last 2 seasons when Niemann starts against poor power teams averaging .9 or less home runs per game. Tampa Bay is winning in this situation by an average score of 7.8 to 2.6. I know Pavano is solid (3.81 home ERA), but I trust Niemann more tonight. Take the Rays.