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Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 15,2010

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DUNKEL INDEX

LA Dodgers at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to take advantage of an LA team that is 2-10 in Clayton Kershaw's last 12 starts during game 1 of a series. St. Louis is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130)

Game 901-902: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.714; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.181
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Over

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.303; Cubs (Dempster) 16.175
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-130); N/A

Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.606; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.425
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under

Game 907-908: NY Mets at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 16.008; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.370
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+155); Over

Game 909-910: Texas at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 15.159; Boston (Wakefield) 13.984
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-115); Over

Game 911-912: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 16.101; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.585
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Under

Game 913-914: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Fister) 14.715; LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.543
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

WNBA

Washington at New York
The Mystics look to take advantage of a New York team that is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing with 3 or more days of rest. Washington is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+2)

Game 601-602: Washington at New York (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 114.393; New York 114.160
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 143
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 2; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+2); Under

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:03 am
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Marc Lawrence
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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs and Phillies open an important four-game series when Ryan Dempster matches serves with Jamie Moyer at Wrigley Park tonight. Dempster toes the rubber in solid current form with a 2.98 ERA in his last seven home starts. He's also 4-2 in his last six home starts against Philly. With Moyer 1-4 in his last five team starts against Philadelphia, along with the Phillies' bats suddenly in slumber mode having plated more than five runs in only two it its last 12 games, we'll stay at home with Dempster and the Cubs here this evening.

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:14 am
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Frank Jordan
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Rangers vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 9.5
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At Fenway Park no lead is save especially over the Red Sox. Boston is tops in the Majors with 481 runs scored and Texas is third with 453 runs scored and both teams are in the top 5 in the AL in team homeruns. Look for the runs to be plentiful out of the break as these two teams battle to see who gets to ten in the game first. Play the Over

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:15 am
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Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
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I normally don't recommend playing favorites of this size, however for a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the home side in this situation:
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R. A. Dickey gets the nod for the visitors; in his last outing Dickey gave up four runs in 6 2/3's innings vs. the Braves.

After earning six consecutive wins to start the year, Dickey hasn't picked up a victory since June 23rd.
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He was 6-2 in the first half with a 2.77 ERA; keep in mind however that the Mets are 3-6 their last nine on the road overall.

In the other dugout: Tim Lincecum heads to the hill for the home side; Lincecum was 9-4 in the first half with a 3.16 ERA.
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In his last outing he dominated the Brewers, allowing just one run with 10 K's over seven frames.

San Francisco is 6-1 its last seven overall.
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Bottom line: Lincecum has clearly been the more effective pitcher of late and gets the advantage of throwing at home; you may want to consider a second look at the GIANTS on Thursday night.

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:16 am
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JIM FEIST

MILWAUKEE BREWERS / ATLANTA BRAVES
PLAY: ATLANTA BRAVES

The Braves are one of the surprising teams this season. After floundering the last few years, the Braves finished the first half in first place in the NL East and winning seven of their last 10 games. The Braves have the best record in the NL at 52-36. If the Brewers didn't start so badly at home this season, they could be much closer than their 8 1/2 games back of the Reds in the NL Central. The Brewers lost 16 of their first 24 home games before turning that around in June and so far in July. Dave Bush gets the start for the Brewers. Bush is 4-6 with a 4.14 ERA this year. One problem with Bush is control. The right-hander has 40 BB's against just 52 KO's. Jair Jurrjens will oppose for the Braves. Jurrjens is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA. In seven starts this season, Jurrjens has allowed more than three earned runs just one time. I'm sticking with the Braves here on Thursday, they are a very good team, at home and looking to hold onto first place.

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:17 am
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EZWINNERS
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Chicago Cubs -130
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The Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster has allowed three earned runs or fewer over his last seven starts and has posted an ERA of 3.43 during that stretch. Dempster has pitched very well this season and could have easily been 8-0 in his first eight starts if he had received some run support in those games. The Phillies starting pitcher Jamie Moyer has pitched as bout as well as the Phillies could have hoped for, but he will still have his games where he gets hit very hard. The Cubs bats showed some signs of coming to life before the All-Star break and they should have an excellent chance of providing Dempster with some run support here against the soft tossing lefty. The Phillies are only 1-4 in Moyer's last five starts against the Cubs and Philadelphia is only 1-4 in their last five road games against a team with a losing record. Play on Chicago.

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:18 am
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Brad Diamond Sports
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Play Boston over Texas
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The talented Rangers open the second-half knowing there franchise will auctioned off on August 4th. Can’t help but noting, that mindset is a difficult way to begin the American League West Division run, especially considering the Thursday opposition is the Boston Red Sox in Boston. We note, the Red Sox control this series at 38-13 at home, while going 24-10 versus right-handed hurlers. Further, the Sox field at 38-16 at home with veteran Wakefield on the hill. Granted hurler Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34) of Texas has looked strong this season, but he enters Fenway where the Sox crushed his spirits 10-0 in August 2008. I’ll take a ticket with Boston here.

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:18 am
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Tom Freese
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Milwaukee at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta
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Atlanta starter Jair Jurrjens has allowed 3 or less runs in 5 straight starts. The Braves are 21-5 their last 26 home games and they are 20-6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Atlanta is 20-7 vs. NL Central teams and they are 5-1 in Jurrjens last 6 home starts. Milwaukee starter David Bush is 6-11 this year in his teams starts. The Brewers are 2-5 off a win and they are 1-5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their last game. Milwaukee is 0-5 their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bush is 2-11 with 4 days of rest.

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:19 am
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CAJUN SPORTS
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to St. Louis for a long weekend series against the host Cardinals with game one on Thursday night and the first pitch set for 8:15PM EST. The Cards will be seeking a little revenge for a three-game sweep earlier this season at the hands of the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine. St. Louis will send out ace and former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter with his 9-3 record and ERA of 3.29. His last two starts have been awful allowing eleven earned runs against the Brewers and Rockies you can be certain he will be looking to rebound here. In his last outing versus the Dodgers back in June the Cards lost 1 to 0 but it was not Carpenter’s fault as he gave us just six hits over seven scoreless innings with the bullpen giving up the lone run in that game. He is 5-1 over his career against LA with a 2.38 ERA. St. Louis is 20-9 in series openers and Carpenter is 4-0 his last four starts with at least six days rest. We will back the host here as St. Louis avenges the sweep with a win in Busch Stadium on Thursday night.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* St. Louis Cardinals 4 Los Angeles Dodgers 2

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:20 am
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Bobby Maxwell

Left off with a FREE winner on Sunday as the Padres rallied to beat the Rockies in Colorado. Tonight, I have another comp winner for you as I play the Cardinals at home to get the best of the Dodgers.

Should be a good pitching matchup here to start the second half of the season, but I’m going with the Cardinals at home with veteran Chris Carpenter (9-3, 3.29 ERA) on the mound.

Carpenter is 6-2 at home this season and other than an ugly outing on July 3 at home against the Brewers, he’s been almost unhittable in front of the home fans. He has dominated the Dodgers over the last few years, limiting them to two runs or less in six of his last seven outings against them, including a June 8 start in Los Angeles.

Back on June 8, he blanked the Dodgers in Los Angeles for seven innings but his offense didn’t show up and the Cardinals fell 1-0. His last home start against the Dodgers was July 27 last year when he limited them to one run over seven innings of a 6-1 victory.

Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers, and he’s been their only reliable starter this season. He’s got a solid ERA on the road and he will keep L.A. in this one for a few innings, but even one run might be too many tonight. The Dodgers are on slides of 2-5 in series openers and 2-10 when Kershaw opens a series.

St. Louis is on runs of 42-15 in series openers, 41-11 when Carpenter opens a series and 43-12 when Carpenter pitches at home. The Cardinals have taken 20 of the last 27 meetings against the Dodgers in St. Louis and they are 6-2 in Carpenter’s last eight starts against Los Angeles.

I’m going with the home team in this one and backing the Cardinals with Carpenter on the hill.

4♦ ST. LOUIS

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:22 am
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Karl Garrett

Not sure how the Rangers wound up losing their series prior to the break against the Orioles, but it happened. Texas now enters the start of the second half of the season with losses in their last 4.

G-Man calling for that streak to be halted tonight against a Boston team that has dropped 5 of their last 7 heading into the second half. A Boston team that is still dealing with a bevy of inuries.

The Rangers will go with the undefeated Tommy Hunter who stands at 5-0 with a 2.34 ERA for the year. Hunter beat Boston in his last start against them, working 6 innings of 1 run ball.

His counterpart Tim Wakefield has been shelled by the Rangers, as Texas has reached him for 18 runs over his last 16 innings of work against them.

Texas has held the upperhand in the series as well, winning 8 of the last 12 series meetings.

G-Man going with the Rangers to snap their 4 game skid tonight at Fenway.

2♦ TEXAS

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:22 am
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BRETT ATKINS

I scored my last free play for you on Sunday when the A's closed the second half of the season with a win over the Angels. Today, I'm delivering a winner on the Rangers as they will take down the Red Sox in Boston.

Texas will get to Boston starter Tim Wakefield (3-7, 5.22 ERA) quickly tonight in Boston. The Rangers have some serious offensive firepower and they are fired up to come out in the second half and build up their lead in the A.L. West.

The Rangers slumped at the end of the first half, but will be in form tonight against Wakefield. Tommy Hunter is 5-0 with a 2.34 ERA this season for the Rangers and they have won six of his last seven games as he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of those seven outings.

Last July, Hunter shut down the Red Sox, allowing just one run in six innings of a 4-2 Rangers’ win.

Wakefield has been ugly lately, giving up at least four runs in six of his last eight outings. And in his last three starts against Texas, he’s given up 18 runs in 15.2 innings. On April 20, he allowed six runs in six innings to these Rangers.

Play Texas to take this one on the road.

3♦ TEXAS

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 7:22 am
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Posted : July 15, 2010 7:33 am
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Scott Spreitzer
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Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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I'm playing the Cardinals on Thursday. The time off will probably serve Chris Carpenter well after a couple of tough outings. And he didn't pitch in the all-star game, being held out just in case the contest went into extra-innings. Carpenter has been simply "nasty" in the situation the Redbirds are in tonight. First of all, they're on a ridiculous 43-12 run in his last 55 home starts. Secondly, the Cards are on a 20-7 run in the Dodgers' last 27 visits to St. Louis. And best of all, Carpenter has never lost to the Dodgers, and sports a red-hot, 1.88 ERA and 1.02 WHIP along the way. Clayton Kershaw is putting up nice numbers, but I believe he's met his match in this one. I'm playing the Cardinals on Thursday night.

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 8:50 am
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VEGAS EXPERTS
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Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Play: The Under
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The Boston Red Sox host the Texas Rangers tonight for the first game of their new series at 7:10 PM ET. Tonight’s matchup kicks off the second half of the MLB season. The sportsbooks have this total at a sky high 9.5 runs. We are going to fly under the number tonight. On the mound for the Rangers, Hunter has been pitching excellent with a 2.37 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in his last three starts. On the other side of tonight’s pitching matchup, Wakefield starts for the Red Sox. His pitching has been somewhat off lately with a 4.79 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts but will turn this around tonight. Play on the UNDER

 
Posted : July 15, 2010 8:50 am
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