Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on LA Dodgers +112
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Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter has been strong on the season, but has struggled lately, failing to earn a win in any of his last 3 starts and posting a 7.87 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in those appearances. Dodgers' starter, Clayton Kershaw has been excellent lately, posting a 1.74 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his last three starts, resulting in a 2-0 record. The Dodgers are 12-6 in Kershaw's starts this year, including a 5-3 mark when he pitches on the road.
SEAN MURPHY
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
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The Mets took two of three games from the Giants at Citi Field back in May, but I think we'll see a different story begin to unfold when the two open a four-game series at AT&T Park on Thursday night.
New York entered the All-Star break in terrible form, losers of eight of their last 13 games. The Mets haven't won a series since taking two of three from the Twins from June 25th to 27th.
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The Giants, on the other hand, have won six of their last seven games, all coming on the road, and now get to return to San Francisco, where they've been a much stronger team this season.
Carlos Beltran is expected to be in the Mets lineup for the first time this season on Thursday. Don't expect too much from the Mets slugger in his first game back following a lengthy layoff. Jose Reyes remains questionable with a strained oblique.
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New York will hand the ball to R.A. Dickey. He was roughed up in his last start, allowing nine hits and three earned runs, including two home runs, over 6 2/3 innings of work against the Braves. Perhaps that poor outing should come as no surprise as he's a career 2-7 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in the month of July.
Dickey went a perfect 6-0 from May 25th to June 23rd, but the Mets have lost each of his last three starts since. The current Giants roster is hitting .250 and slugging .313 against him, but keep in mind, no player has seen him more than five times.
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The Giants will counter with their ace, Tim Lincecum. He's had an up and down year to be sure, but I'm confident that his best days are ahead of him. He delivered a fine effort in his final start before the break, allowing only four hits and one earned run while striking out 10 and walking two against the Brewers.
While R.A. Dickey has really struggled in July, Lincecum has been lights out, a career 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while holding opponents to a .218 average.
The current Mets roster is hitting .233 and slugging .283 against Lincecum. They've went to bat 60 times against him, and have just one extra-base hit to their credit (a home run by Jeff Francoeur).
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This is a statement game for the Giants, as they look to come out swinging following the break, and make it known that they're not going to fade out of contention. The Mets are having a tough time getting out of their own way right now, and while Carlos Beltran's return gives them a boost, I'm not sure that it will be enough. Take San Francisco.
JR ODonnell
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MIN (-115) vs CWS
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Minny Twins & K. Slowey grab Jr O's call as a free Mlb bomb tonight as the second half is a different animal and this is a huge GUT PLAY from our camp. The Minny Twins bring a nice home record here vs. the surprising Chi Sox. The Twins are a solid 70% at home vs. lefty's the last 3 seasons. The Chi White Sox will be the publics choice as we will fade J Dank's who will not get it done tonight. The Twins and the K. Slowey show @ home and Jr's O call on this sharp side is all you need tonight.
Info Plays
3* Los Angeles Angels -151
Reasons the Angels win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (LA ANGELS) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, in the second half of the season. This is a 50-9 ML System hitting 84.7% since 1997.
2.) Joel Pineiro. The righty is 6-2 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. The Angels have won 8 of those 10 starts. Seattle knows they have nothing to play for in the second half after trading away Cliff Lee, and it will be hard for the Mariners to stay motivated. Bet the Angels at home.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cubs -130
The Cubs are not having the best year, but they've been pretty good at home, and have played well behind Ryan Dempster. Dempster is 7-7 on the year with a 3.61 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The Phillies start Jamie Moyer. Moyer has been effective on the whole this season, but he's struggled on the road where he has a 5.02 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. There aren't a lot of situations where the Cubs have the edge over the Phillies, but at home with Dempster on the mound, hitting against Moyer is one of them.
Rocketman
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox come in with a 49-38 overall record on the season while Minnesota is now 46-42 overall this year. Chicago White Sox have won 9 of 10 games in the month of July including winning 8 games in a row heading into tonight's action. Chicago White Sox are 14-3 this year after 3 or more consecutive wins. Minnesota has lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Chicago White Sox bullpen has a 3.59 ERA overall this year and a 2.87 ERA on the road this season. John Danks has a nice 3.29 ERA overall this year and a 3.60 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox tonight!
BEN BURNS
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
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At first glance, this price may seem rather steep. However, keep in mind that the Giants are a highly profitable 146-75 (+25.7) the last 220+ times that they were home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. During the same stretch, the Mets have gone just 36-63 (-5.7) as road underdogs in the +150 to +175 range.
Lincecum was "only" 9-4 with a 3.16 ERA in the first half. While most pitchers would love to have numbers like that, Lincecum is capable of being even better. He showed that in his last start. In that outing, when allowed just four hits and one run through seven complete innings. He had 10 K's with just two walks and the Giants won by a score of 15-2. Including that result, the Giants are 12-6 (+3.2) in his 18 starts.
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Dickey had a great first half. However, he's started to come back to earth a bit recently and the Mets are 0-3 his last three starts. New York lost those games by a combined score of 20-10.
Given what he showed in his last start and what we've seen in recent seasons, I expect Lincecum to get the better of Dickey here. I also expect the Giants to have the edge in the bullpen department.
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San Francisco relievers have a combined 1.96 ERA at home. New York relievers have a combined 5.31 ERA (1.672 WHIP) on the road.
Overall, the Mets are 18-24 (-4) on the road. The Giants are 25-17 (+2.6) at home. Consider laying the wood.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Los Angeles +1.12 over ST. LOUIS
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Give me Clayton Kershaw plus a tag against the most overrated team in baseball and we’ll play it every time. Chris Carpenter is having another solid year but let’s not forget that this guy has been injured for most of his career and prior to this year he appeared in just 33 games over three years. Carpenter has been shaky in three of his last five starts with only good starts over that stretch coming against the Jays and D-Backs. The A’s got to him for 10 hits in seven frames a few starts ago and both Colorado and Milwaukee ripped him apart in his last two games. Carpenter’s ERA over his last three starts is 7.88. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw is one of the best lefties in the game. The only thing that prevents him from being the best is a lack of control. When he doesn’t walk folks he does not lose and the good news is that he has walked only two batters over his last three starts covering 20.2 innings. Kershaw has outstanding numbers right across the board that includes a BAA of .229, a road ERA of 2.61 and 128 K’s in just 112 frames. Lastly, the Cards have won just seven of its last 17 games and every win was against teams way under .500 (Houston twice, Milwaukee twice, Arizona twice, Kansas City once). Play: Los Angeles +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
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Chicago +1.07 over MINNESOTA
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Hard to ignore the White Sox taking back a tag. The South Side enters this series as baseball's hottest team with an eight-game winning streak and having won 25 of 30 games dating to June 9, out-scoring opponents 156-77 during that span. While Chicago’s offense has improved considerably after a slow start, the pitching has been dominant during the team's surge and John Danks is no exception. In a recent start in Texas, Danks allowed four hits in six innings and followed that up with a complete game, two-hit shutout against the Angels. Only once in his last six starts did he allow more than three runs and that came at Wrigley with the wind blowing out. On the year, Danks has a BAA 0f .219 and his HR/9 is one of the best in the game at 0.56. Kevin Slowey has been much, much better at home but he’s without question the second best starter in this matchup. His BAA on the year is about 80 points higher than Danks at .293. Also note that Slowey’s GB/FB ratio is one of the worst in the business at 26%/51%, a near 2-1 ratio in favor of the fly-ball. The White Sox torched him earlier in the year and now they’re seeing beach balls. Play: Chicago +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Chris Jordan
I have to believe Tim Lincecum will be spot on to start the second half of the season, after all, I think he has a bit to prove after a disappoiinting start to the campaign - based on his standards and how well he's started in the past.
And since it's anybody's game in the National League West, the Giants need to come out with guns ablazing for this one.
Lincecum avoided losing a career-worst third straight start last Wednesday in a 15-2 win at Milwaukee, where he allowed one run over seven innings and struck out 10.
And get this, the Mets are one of two National League teams he has never beaten, so the motivation is even deeper tonight.
He should get plenty of run support, as the Mets hand the ball to R.A. Dickey, who has gone 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three outings after winning six straight starts from May 25-June 23.
His struggles continue, as the Giants roll to a blowout win.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO -1.5
Chuck O'Brien
Thursday’s complimentary selection comes Fenway Park, as I’ll play the Rangers-Red Sox game OVER the total.
Tim Wakefield has struggled in the shadows of the Monster this season, going 1-4 with a 5.89 ERA, and his knuckleball has been dancing over the wall at an alarming rate (15 home runs allowed in 100 innings, including seven long balls at home). Wakefield also got rocked by these Rangers at home on April 20, allowing six runs in six innings (Boston eventually prevailed 7-6). So in his last three starts against Texas, Wakefield has surrendered 18 runs in 15 2/3 innings, and the final scores of those three games were 6-5, 15-8 and 7-6.
Rangers starter Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 ERA) has been phenomenal since getting recalled from Triple-A in early June. However, six of his seven starts have come at home – in fact, he’s only pitched 2 1/3 innings on the road. He’s also only faced two above-average offenses (Rays and White Sox). Hunter also has scary memories of Fenway Park – in his only start there back in 2008, the right-hander lasted all of 1 2/3 innings after yielding nine runs in a 10-0 loss.
The Rangers (.278) and Red Sox (.276) rank second and third, respectively, in baseball in team batting average, and Boston’s 118 home runs are second only to the Blue Jays (Texas has gone deep 90 times). These teams combined for 13 and 15 runs in two of three meetings at Fenway earlier this season, and this one has double-digit slugfest written all over it.
3♦ OVER
Hollywood Sports
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NY Mets at Giants
Prediction: Over
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A Total listed at seven is just too low for this situation. While Tim Lincecum sports a strong 9-4 record with a 3.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, he has been a bit off this season relative to his recent past. At home, he is actually underperforming with his 3.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .237 opponent's batting average as compared to his 2.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and .228 opponent's batting average when on the road. Lincecum has also struggled against the Mets in his career given his 5.04 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .296 opponent's batting average in 25 innings of work. He faces off against R.A. Dickey who is 6-2 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP for the season. Dickey also sports a 3.32 ERA on the road versus his sterling 2.00 ERA at home in Citi Field.
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Additionally, there is an underlying sabermetric statistic that is troublesome regarding Dickey relative to his perceived value: Batting Average for line-drive Balls put Into Play (LD BABIP). Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The MLB average for line-drives that go for base hits is typically in the .720-.725 range. Dickey is allowing .742 of the line-drives hit off him to be base hits. We surmise that this statistic is indicative of the fact that Dickey is susceptible to losing this "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle more often than what is typical of a major league pitcher. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starters Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like LD BABIP, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future.
John Ryan
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on the Cubs set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-19 for 64% winners since 2004. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game and with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. Cubs are 17-36 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team winning between 54% to 62% over the last 2 seasons; 10-22 (-21.5 Units) against the money line versus a NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season; 9-20 (-15.8 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 4 or less hits over the last 3 seasons. Moyer has a solid history after a giving up home runs. He is a solid 8-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. Moyer yielded 3 bombs and 7 total hits in his last start. He is still one of the best control pitchers in the game and has posted a 1.077 WHIP in 17 starts and 1.099 in 15 night starts. He makes the hitter hit his pitch more times than not and despite not throwing many pitches over 80 MPH he is very successful. Dempster has not done well against Philadelphia posting a 3-4 record in 15 starts posting a 5.32 ERA and a 1.587 WHIP. take the Phillies.
Craig Trapp
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Phillies vs. Cubs
Play: Under 8.5
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Both these two have had trouble producing runs the last month. In fact these two have scored less than 3 runs in more than half of those games. Moyer goes for PHI and with the extra rest from the all star break expect him to be very good today. Dempster goes for the Cubs and even though his record does not reflect it he has been really good most of the year. His numbers in last seven starts are 2-4 with a 3.04 ERA while the lineup has provided three or fewer runs of support in six of them. First game back usually takes longer for hitters to readjust than pitchers so lower scoring games are more likely.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -101
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I'll back the Rangers Thursday with the better starter on the mound in Tommy Hunter. The righty has yet to lose this season, going 5-0 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.181 WHIP this season in seven starts for Texas. Tim Wakefield hasn't fared nearly as well this year, and his time in the big leagues is about over with. Wakefield is 3-7 with a 5.22 ERA this season. The knuckleballer is 1-4 with a 6.18 ERA in 8 home starts as well.
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Not only has Wakefield struggled this season, but he has not fared well against the power-hitting Rangers at all. Wakefield is 7-10 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in 21 career starts vs. Texas. In his last 3 starts against the Rangers dating back to 2008, Wakefield is 1-1 with a 10.34 ERA while allowing 18 earned runs and 27 base runners in 15.2 innings. Hunter pitched a gem in his last starts vs. Boston, allowing 1 earned run in 6 innings to get the victory in a 4-2 win. The Rangers come into this series very hungry after getting swept at home by the Orioles right before the All-Star break. They'll come out swinging tonight. Roll with the Rangers Thursday.
Rob Vinciletti
Rangers vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 9½
This game fits a nice system that plays the over for certain road teams off a home favored loss at -200 or higher, if they scored 2 or less runs and their opponent scored 4 or less on the road. Boston has gone over the total in 7 of 10 home games in this line range. Tim Wakefield is starting for Boston and he has a poor 6.18 home era this season. Tommy Hunter makes the start for a Texas tonight. In his lone start here in Boston he was shelled for 9 runs in less than 2 innings of work. Wakefield has also struggled vs Texas allowing 18 runs in 14+ innings vs Texas in his last 3 starts against them. Look for this one to go over.