Black Widow
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1* on Dodgers/Cardinals UNDER 7
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Look for Clayton Kershaw and Chris Carpenter to dominate in this one, keeping the final score under the posted total. Whenever there's a long layoff like this, it almost always favors the pitchers. And we have two gems going tonight in Kershaw, who is 9-4 with a 2.96 ERA this season, and Carpenter, who is 9-3 with a 3.29 ERA this year. Both starters have fared well against their opposition. Kershaw is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in six career starts against St. Louis, while Carpenter is 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA in eight career starts against Los Angeles. St. Louis is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are 17-4 UNDER (+12.5 Units) in road games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 7 runs here.
Sac Lawson
STL (-120) vs LOS
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Something about this game is weird to me. In fact, I'm absolutely shocked that (according to Sportsbook Spy) the majority is on STL??? With how Carpenter has struggled lately and with how successful Kershaw has been on the road, I simply don't believe that. And that's one of the plus sides to being me, I'm a huge skeptic. Quite frankly, I still think the public play is the Dodgers here, and not saying that to justify my side, just saying that to justify the line move (or lack there of).
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To be simple and to the point. I have a lot of faith in Dave Duncan, and his ability to mold Carpenter back into his early season form. This All-Star break was much needed for Double-C and with the best pitching coach in the bizz having his back, I expect him to come out of the break with a great performance. Then again, it doesn't hurt that Carpenter has only given up 3 total runs in his last four starts against the Dodgers. Great spot for him to break outta that funk.
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On the other side, I've got nothing against Kershaw at all. The guy has been exactly what the Dodgers asked for, and even better on the road. But, he's a lefty, and those power bats on the right side of that STL lineup can certainly give him problems. If not with hits, than with forcing their way deep into counts, which has always been an issue with Kershaw. Kershaw definitely has the stuff to stick with Carpenter, but he won't go deep, and that means the Dodgers will need three or four pitchers to be on top of their game in order to counter one good start from Carpenter. That's a lot to ask. Especially against a team that is 27-15 at home this year.
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Even with an even pitching matchup, you've gotta lean toward the team that simply finds ways to win at home. However, I feel we've got a little more than an even matchup, I feel like we're riding the guy that can go deeper, and provide the safer move with our money. Cardinals 1 unit!
Tony George
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Texas / Boston Under 9.5
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Runs should be at a premium here in what should be a tight game, and Hunter for Texas on the hill just simply does not allow a ton of earned runs, and Boston's Wakefield allows about a hit an inning, and 10 out of the last 13 in this series have went under. After a 4 day break I think allot of games will be lower scoring until teams get their legs back.