SPORTS ADVISORS
Philadelphia (48-38) at Florida (46-44)
The red-hot Phillies begin a four-game series at Dolphin Stadium, and they’ll hand the ball to ageless veteran Jamie Moyer (8-6, 5.99 ERA), while the Marlins counter with young Chris Volstad (6-8, 4.44).
Philadelphia went into the All-Star break on a five-game winning streak, which was part of a 9-1 homestand. The hot run came on the heels of a 4-14 slump, and the defending champs now lead the N.L. East by four games over Florida. The Phillies are on hot streaks of 13-6 in divisional play, 47-23 after a victory and 21-10 after an off day, but they’ve lost six of eight on the road, including five straight against right-handed starters.
The Marlins pounded Arizona 8-1 on Sunday to end a seven-game road trip with a 3-4 mark. They’ve lost six of seven after an off day and five of six against winning teams, but Florida is also on positive runs of 10-1 at home, 4-1 against the N.L. East, 12-5 versus southpaw starters and 4-1 on Thursday.
Philadelphia is on a 6-2 roll against the Marlins (4-2 this year), including winning five straight games in Florida. In fact, the visitor has taken nine of the last 11 in this rivalry.
Moyer is 4-0 in his last four trips to the hill despite a 4.84 ERA, and he gave up six runs on eight hits in five innings in his most recent start against Cincinnati on July 9, winning 9-6 at home. The 46-year-old lefty is 4-2 with a 5.08 ERA in his eight road outings.
In addition to winning Moyer’s last four starts, Philadelphia is 11-5 in his last 16 on the road, 33-11 in his last 44 against the N.L. East and 8-3 in his last 11 on Thursday. Also, Moyer is 12-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 14 career starts against the Marlins, including 7-0 with a 1.58 ERA in seven career trips to South Beach. This year, Moyer is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts versus the Fish.
Volstad is coming off the best start of his young career, tossing his first complete game in a 7-0 rout of the Giants in San Francisco. The right-hander scattered five hits, struck out six and didn’t walk a batter as he won for just the second time in his last eight starts. Volstad is 3-5 with a 5.15 ERA in nine home starts and 2-6 with a 5.20 ERA in night games.
With Volstad pitching, Florida is mired in funks of 2-6 overall, 2-6 at home, 3-8 in night games and 1-4 in series openers, but it has won five of his last six starts against the N.L. East. Volstad has faced the Phillies five times, going 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA, including 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA in two games this year (one home, one road).
The Phillies carry “under” streaks of 8-3 overall, 4-0 against the N.L. East, 11-4-2 on grass, 17-8-2 on Thursday, 8-2 with Moyer on the mound and 4-1 with Moyer working on the road. The under is also 7-2-1 in Florida’s last 10 N.L. East contests, 4-1 in its last five against winning teams and 5-0-1 in its last six against lefty starters. Conversely, the over is 5-1 in Volstad’s last six home starts and 53-23-3 in the last 79 Phillies-Marlins clashes in South Beach, including 3-0 this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Houston (44-44) at L.A. Dodgers (56-32)
A battle of left-handers is on tap at Dodger Stadium, with Los Angeles sending Randy Wolf (4-3, 3.45) to the mound against the Astros’ Wandy Rodriguez (8-6, 2.96) in the opener of a four-game series.
Houston got its record to .500 at the All-Star break courtesy of a 12-6 run over the past 18 games, and it has won six of nine road games, including a 4-3 mark on its most recent trip which also was on the West Coast at San Diego and San Francisco. The Astros are also on runs of 5-0 on Thursday, 18-7 against the N.L. West, 4-1 against lefty starts and 4-1 in series openers, but they’ve lost 13 of 16 after an off day.
The Dodgers, who continue to own baseball’s best record, capped a 6-3 road trip with Sunday’s 7-4 victory at Milwaukee. Los Angeles, which won its first 13 home games to start the season, are 48-21 at Dodger Stadium dating to last season (28-13 this year) and are on further positive streaks of 21-8 at home against lefty starters, 7-3 on Thursday, 4-0 after a day off and they’ve won six consecutive series openers.
Houston took two of three from the Dodgers in Texas earlier this season, and they’ve won six of their last eight in Dodger Stadium.
Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last four starts – all Astros victories – including 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in his last two outings. In his most recent start against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, Rodriguez delivered a complete-game 5-0 victory, allowing five hits and one walk while matching his season high with 11 strikeouts. It was just the second complete game of his career.
Rodriguez dominated the Padres in a 7-2 victory in his last road start, but is just 4-4 in nine outings on the highway despite a 3.83 ERA. He’s also 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against L.A. That includes a 2-0 home loss on April 23 when the lefty yielded just one run and five hits in six innings.
Wolf dominated the Mets in an 11-2 road win a week ago, allowing two runs in 6 1/3 innings as he picked up his first victory since May 28. Wolf has given up two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and he’s posted a 2.45 ERA in his last three trips to the hill.
The Dodgers are 9-3 in Wolf’s last 12 starts overall, 13-3 in his last 16 at home, 7-1 in his last eight against the N.L. Central and 4-1 in his last five on Thursday. The 32-year-old has just one decision (a loss) in nine home starts this season, posting a 4.04 ERA, and he’s 4-4 with a 3.89 ERA in 12 career starts against the Astros, including a no-decision in L.A.’s 6-5 loss in Houston on April 22.
The over is 8-3-1 in Houston’s last 12 against the N.L. West, but otherwise the team is on “under” streaks of 9-4-1 against winning teams, 38-17-1 after an off day and 42-19-2 in series openers. Also, the Dodgers have stayed low in their last five home games, but the over is 4-1 in their last five overall and 5-2 in their last seven against southpaw starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
Dunkel Index
Chicago Cubs at Washington
The Nats open with new manager Jim Riggelman looking to take advantage of a Chicago team that is just 2-5 in Rich Harden's last 7 starts. Washington is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110).
Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Harden) 14.144; Washington (Lannan) 15.559
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Over
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 13.430; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.243
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Over
Game 905-906: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 13.777; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.919
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-175); Under
Game 907-908: Colorado at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 14.613; San Diego (Gaudin) 15.364
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over
Game 909-910: Houston at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.751; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.124
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under
Game 911-912: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Olson) 15.291; Cleveland (Lee) 14.727
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+190); Over
Game 913-914: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 16.686; Oakland (Braden) 15.916
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+125); Under
Game 915-916: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.500; Florida (Volstad) 16.500
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-125); Over
CFL
BC at Edmonton
The Lions look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is coming off a 50-16 defeat at Montreal and is just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS loss. BC is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: BC (+4 1/2).
Game 401-402: BC at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: BC 107.163; Edmonton 106.025
Dunkel Line: BC by 1; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 4 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: BC (+4 1/2); Over
FRIDAY, JULY 17
Game 403-404: Toronto at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 105.289; Calgary 108.944
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 3 1/2; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+7 1/2); Under
SATURDAY, JULY 18
Game 405-406: Montreal at Saskatchewan
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 121.326; Saskatchewan 112.910
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 8 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Montreal by 4 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4 1/2); Over
Game 407-408: Winnipeg at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 110.398; Hamilton 103.238
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 7; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 1; 54
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-1); Over
Carlo Campanella
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
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Atlanta returns from the All-Star break as large Favorites as they host the NY Mets on Thursday. The Braves start Lowe on the mound, who's won 2 of his last 3 starts, however, he's a money burning 4-10 in the home Favorite role between -150 and -200. With Lowe playing at the level of his competition, the Oddsmakers are offering extreme value on the Mets here, as they're 2-0 in Atlanta this season. The Mets entered the break on a 2 game winning streak, will back them as a live road Dog on Thursday.
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Play on: NY Mets
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
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Surprisingly, this will be the first time in nearly three months that these NL West rivals have hooked up. The Rockies took two of three from the Padres back on Memorial Day Weekend, but have since become a much better team, going 29-13 for new manager Jim Tracy. Tonight's starter Aaron Cook has dominated the Padres in his career (12-4, 2.37 ERA) + owns a 10-3 team start record on the road off a team win. San Diego is hitting an abysmal .210 as a team at home.
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Play on: Colorado
Vernon Croy
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LAA Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: LAA Angels
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We are getting great value here Thursday night with the Angels who have Ervin Santana (1-5, 7.81 ERA) on the mound since he has owned the Athletics in the past with an ERA of just 1.38 over 13 starts against them. Santana is throwing 90 to 94 m.p.h. consistently and he is 9-1 lifetime against the Athletics so I look for him to have a solid outing pitching with several days rest. Jason Giambi is just 1 for 14 (.71) against Santana while Jack Cust is just 2 for 10 (.200) against him so I look for Santana to have plenty of confidence coming into this game after a few rough outings. The Athletics starter Dallas Braden (7-7, 3.12) is 0-2 against the Angels this season with an ERA of 4.50 and the Angels batters have a big advantage since they have faced Braden twice this season while averaging 8.5 hits per game against him. The Angels are a red hot 10-1 in their last 11 games in game 1 of a series and they are 9-1 in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record. The Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 road games against a lefty starter and they are 8-1 in their last 9 games as an underdog including a perfect 6-0 as an underdog of +110 to +150. Oakland is just 3-11 in Braden's last 14 starts as a favorite and they are 0-5 in their last 5 home games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels get it done on the road tonight without Vladimir Guerrero (knee) and Torii Hunter (strained adductor) just like they did when they swept the Yankees. Take the L.A. AngelsThursday night.
Frank Jordan
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Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
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Seattle had high hopes last year and between injuries and lack of production fell really short of those. This year they were not selected to do much, but they are 4 games over and only 4 games back. The only down side of this year is their under .500 record on the road which is 21-24. Cleveland had high expectation this year and they haven't gotten the same year from Cliff Lee and have had injuries to big names. They are the worst team in the American League, but do play better at home where they are starting the second half schedule. Cliff Lee is 4-9 on the year, but his era is terribly high as it is under .500. The biggest problem is Lee isn't getting the run support he needs as he has given up just 29 run over his last 10 start but is 2-4 over that span. Look for another quality start from Lee and All-Star Victor Martinez to come through with a few hits to lead the Indians to the home win. Play Cleveland
Cajun Sports
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Petco Park will be the site of a four-game set between the host San Diego Padres and the visiting Colorado Rockies. The Rockies look to continue their recent success winning five of their last seven heading into the break. They will send right-hander Aaron Cook to the bump with his 8-3 W/L record and ERA of 3.98. Cook has dominated the Padres over his career posting a record of 12-4 W/L with an ERA of 2.37 in twenty-two appearances, twenty of those were starts. His success over the Padres has also come on the road going 5-1 W/L his last eight trips here with an ERA of 1.61 although he didn’t earn a win here on May 5th despite pitching eight strong innings, allowing only one run on five hits as the Rockies lost in ten innings by a score of 2 to 1. Cook is 6-1 W/L his last 7 starts overall and 4-0 W/L his last 4 starts on the highway. Colorado is 4-0 W/L on the road versus a team with a losing record, 11-1 W/L their last 12 road games facing a right-handed starter and 15-4 W/L when facing a losing team overall. The Padres will counter with right-hander Chad Gaudin who is 4-7 W/L on the season with an ERA of 5.15. He is 1-3 W/L when he takes the hill at home with an ERA of 6.14. Gaudin is 2-5 W/L his last 7 trips to the bump this season. The Padres are 17-38 W/L when installed as an underdog, 8-21 W/L their last 29 games overall and 7-19 W/L their last 26 versus right-handed starters including 4-0 W/L their last 4 at home. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rockies win by 2.5 runs and our Math Model also signals a play on the visitor as they get the win by 2.87 runs. Lay the short price as the Rockies continue their run at the playoffs and overwhelm the host Padres on Thursday night.
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Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 5 San Diego Padres 2
Nelly
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Houston + over Los Angeles
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The Astros won the first series between these teams at a time when Los Angeles was playing extremely well and the Astros have surged to .500 after a very poor start to the season. Houston has actually won six of the last eight meetings between these teams and the Astros won six of the last eight games before the All Star break to pull closer in the NL Central race. The Astros are batting .311 against left-handed pitching in the last ten games and starter Wandy Rodriguez should start to be considered the dark horse in the Cy Young race. The Astros have won his last four starts and he has 106 strikeouts and only 40 walks allowed. In four of his last six starts he allowed one or zero runs and he has pitched well on the road this season after only being a strong home pitcher earlier in his career. Houston is 12-6 when Rodriguez takes the mound and he allowed just one run against the Dodgers earlier this season. Randy Wolf has pitched much better than his record indicates but he has not been as dominant as Rodriguez and he benefits from man of his starts being in very friendly venues. Wolf is yet to win at home this season however and his ERA is significantly higher at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers bullpen was dealt a big blow with Jonathan Broxton out of action for the foreseeable future and Wolf lost the last time he faced Houston.
Red Dog Sports
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Seattle at Cleveland
Play Seattle +
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The Indians are just 3-9 in their last 12 home games and Cliff Lee is 0-3 with a 7.31 ERA in his last 3 starts. The team is just 5-14 in Lee's starts this year. Seattle starts Olsen and the Mariners are 4-4 when he starts for them. The Mariners are close to +170 and worth a shot as a big underdog!
Brad Diamnd Sports
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Play on: Philadelphia over Florida
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The red hot Phillies have won 12 of 14 with Moyer (7 straight on the road)versus the pesky Marlins and 5 straight in Florida. With Philadelphia closing the break on an 8-1 run, they should have enough momentum to handle hurler Volstad in this spot. Don't miss my key discounted pitching box on Thursday, it has great props!
Scott Rickenbach
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Under 9.5
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Homer Bailey of the Reds has struggled so far in his young career. That’s helping to give us great line value here. This total opened up as the biggest total (9.5) on the board for Thursday. That’s a great value because Bailey is indeed showing signs of having turned the corner this season. Even though he struggled with command in his first two outings, he’s been tough to hit so far this year. Don’t be fooled by his 5.16 ERA this season. Teams are hitting just .195 against Bailey this season. With his walks now down (just 2 in his last 13.1 innings) Bailey is transitioning from wild and unpredictable to solid plus very tough to hit. In his last two outings he’s allowed just two walks and ten hits in 13.1 innings. Bailey will be facing a Brewers team that’s been “all or nothing” so far this month. Milwaukee has been held to two runs or less in five of their eleven games this month.
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Look for Milwaukee’s sticks to be held “in check” once again here and the key to the under in this match-up is that the Reds are also quite likely to have a quiet night at the plate. Cincinnati has averaged just three runs per game in their last 13 games. Here the Reds will be facing Braden Looper of the Brewers. The right-hander has given up just 23 hits in his last 24.1 innings on the mound. Looper has lasted at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. Note that, in all six of those “workmanlike outings” Looper never allowed more than seven hits. He’s 6-3 in his career against the Reds and he’s held them to a .232 batting average. The biggest issue for Looper in recent outings has been the long ball. However, despite playing their home games in a homer-friendly park, the Reds rank 20th in the majors in terms of home runs hit this season. They just don’t have the pop in their lineup to take advantage of Looper’s long ball struggles and, as noted above, Bailey really appears to have turned the corner for the Reds. Being able to get 9 as a “win number” is simply an added bonus here. We’ll take it! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Cincinnati on Thursday night.
LEE KOSTROSKI
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Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
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Ervin Santana has not come close to matching the success that he had last season but he has posted impressive numbers against Oakland in his career. Santana is 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA against Oakland in 14 games including a perfect 4-0 and a 1.50 ERA in Oakland. Santana has had some rough outings this year but Oakland will be by far the weakest hitting team he has faced. The A’s are batting just .245 for the season and Oakland has been a losing team at home this year.
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The Angels have quickly recovered from a tough first two months of the year to lead the AL West sitting twelve games above .500. The Angels have cashed some big tickets recently, winning eight of the last nine as underdogs while also producing wins in seven of the last nine road games. The road team has won five of the last six meetings in this series and the Angels are a hot offensive team even with some key injuries. Los Angeles scored 7.3 runs per game while hitting .326 in the final ten games before the break.
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Los Angeles is 16-10 against left-handed starters this season including a win over Dallas Braden in the last game between these teams. Braden has had a nice season but he allowed five runs against the Angels in that start and he receives the lowest run-support in the AL at 3.47 runs per nine-innings. Braden has also had some personal distractions of late and the A’s are just 2-4 in his last six starts and 8-10 behind him overall this season.
MTi Sports
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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds are 13-0 in the first game of a home series after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base and the Brewers are 5-16 in the first game of a road series after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits. Consider Cincinnati.
Bob Harvey
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Colorado Rockies
Aaron Cook and the Rockies continue their pursuit of a playoff spot when they open the second half of the season against the Padres.
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Cook has sizzled against San Diego in his career and he’s been especially dominate at Petco Park. Cooke is 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA in his last eight starts and is 12-4 with a 2.71 ERA lifetime against the Padres. He figures to improve on those numbers tonight against a San Diego squad that had lost seven in a row, averaging less than three runs per game before erupting for a 10-4 victory over San Francisco in the final game before the break. Overall Cooke is 8-3 with a 3.98 ERA. He along with all-star Jason Marquis have given Colorado a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
Offensively, the Rockies remain one of the most dangerous teams in the NL. They’ve scored seven runs or more in three of its last five games, including an 8-7 win over Atlanta on Sunday to enter the break on a high note.
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Colorado is 29-13 since Jim Tracy took over as manager and they’ve been a real cash cow especially on the road. The Rockies are 6th best in the majors with a 24-22 record and +879 units.
On the flip side, San Diego doesn’t have much going for it right now. The Padres are 8-21 in their last 29 games and 36-52 overall. They’ve played better at home posting a 23-20 record but the problem is scoring. They average just 3.8 runs per game and if it weren’t for Adrian Gonzalez they’d be dregging in Washington Nationals territory. Gonzalez has accounted for nearly 60% of the Padres offense with his 24 homeruns, 52 rbi’s and 49 runs scored. Even with Gonzo, San Diego ranks 30th in runs per game, batting average and OPS. in the NL West, but just two back of San Francisco in the wild-card race.
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Chad Gaudin gets the start for the Padres. He’s 4-7 with a 5.03 ERA but has pitched better over his last three starts posting a 3.20 ERA with a WHIP of 1.07. He’ll need a huge effort tonight if San Diego is to have a shot.
Colorado is 5-3 on the season against San Diego but split their first two series meetings in the border city.
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The Rockies are nine games behind the first-place Dodgers but just two back of the wild-card leading Giants. They’ve got the playoffs in mind while the Padres are already making plans for next season. Colorado is the play here.
Dominic Fazzini
Philadelphia +110 at FLORIDA
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The Phillies played better on the road than at home the first half of this season, going 26-15 away from Philadelphia and just 22-23 at Citizens Bank Park.
And the Phillies open the second half in Miami with their Marlin killer on the mound.
Left-hander Jamie Moyer (8-6, 5.99 ERA) is 12-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 14 career starts against Florida, and the 46-year-old has never lost at Land Shark Stadium, winning all seven of his starts there with a 1.58 ERA.
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The Marlins will give the ball to 6-foot-8-inch right-hander Chris Volstad (6-8, 4.44), who pitched a five-hit shutout last Wednesday against San Francisco.
Volstad has faced the Philadelphia twice this year, allowing five runs in 13 2/3 innings. He has been somewhat inconsistent this year, evidenced by the start before his shutout, when he allowed four runs in three innings against Pittsburgh on July 3.
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I’m going with the more reliable commodity in this one. Moyer might be ancient, but his track record against the Marlins is hard to ignore. Take the Phillies in this one.
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3♦ PHILADELPHIA