Bobby Maxwell
Chicago Cubs -115 at WASHINGTON
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Sunday was our last FREE play and I nailed it with the Marlins winning easy in Arizona. Tonight is just as easy as I go with the Cubs to get the job done in Washington.
Yes, I'm playing the Cubs in this one because Lou Pinella and his players know they have the talent to win the division and they've got to put it together in the second half of the season and they know it starts tonight. Plus Rich Harden (5-6, 5.47 ERA) has been dominant on the road this season and shut down the Nationals in his only start against them last season.
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Harden is 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 31.1 innings on the highway this year and last time he took the mound in enemy territory he allowed just one run in seven innings of a 3-1 win over the Pirates, striking out nine and walking one in the process. A season ago, he faced the Nationals and allowed just one run on two hits in seven innings of a 6-1 win and struck out 11 without walking a batter. Domination!
Lefty John Lannan (6-6, 3.70 ERA) is on the mound for Washington and he just got torched a week ago, allowing five runs on 11 hits in five innings of a 9-4 loss in Houston. Against the Cubs last year he allowed five runs on seven hits in 6.1 innings at Wrigley Field in Chicago.
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The Cubs are 9-4 in their last 13 meetings with the Nationals, who have lost 43 of their last 58 games overall. Definitely play Chicago in this one.
4♦ CHICAGO CUBS
Jeff Benton
L.A. Angels +125 at OAKLAND
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I barely misfired with my 5 Dime play on the National League in Tuesday’s All-Star Game, but I did nail my free selection on the UNDER, making me 5-2 with my last seven freebies. For Tuesday, we’ll back the first-place Angels as an underdog at Oakland.
Why are the Angels – who at 49-37 are 12 games better than the A’s (37-49) – such a prohibitive ‘dog in this contest? Because starting pitcher Ervin Santana has been a mess all season, going 1-5 with a 7.81 ERA in eight starts sandwiched around two stints on the disabled list. Also because Oakland starter Dallas Braden has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts and yielded three earned or fewer in all but one of his 17 outings.
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Given those numbers, it would seem silly to take a shot with Los Angeles. But those numbers don’t tell the whole story. First off, even though Braden has a stellar 3.12 ERA on the season, Oakland is just 8-10 when he pitches (thanks mostly to an offense that doesn’t score). Also, Braden has faced the Angels twice this season, and even though both were quality starts (he gave up three earned runs in six innings in each game), he lost both contests by scores of 3-0 at home and 5-3 on the road. In fact, Braden has a 3.28 ERA in four career starts against the Halos, but L.A. is 3-1 in those games.
As for Santana, yes, this has been a frustrating year for the young right-hander. But if ever he was going to snap out of his funk, it would figure to be tonight. Why? Because he has flat-out owned the A’s in his career, going 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA in 14 games (13 starts). Over his last seven starts against the A’s since the end of the 2006 season, Santana has given up a total of five earned runs in 48 1/3 innings, good for a scant 0.93 ERA. He’s 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in six starts in Oakland, and the Angels are 8-2 in his last 10 starts overall against the A’s (4-1 last five in Oakland).
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Los Angeles – which swept the red-hot Yankees over the weekend prior to the All-Star break while scoring 29 runs – is 20-8 in its last 28 overall, 7-2 in its last nine on the road, 8-1 in its last nine as an underdog and 5-2 in its last seven in Oakland (2-0 this year). Meanwhile, the A’s have lost eight of 11 at home and 11 of 14 games with Braden as a favorite. Take the plus money with the much better overall team.
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3♦ L.A. ANGELS
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the Astros out West.
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I am the first person to bash these Astros when it is called for but right now, halfway into the season, believe it or not, Houston is in pretty good position. No, they are not the elite team we have seen in years' past with Biggio, Bagwell and others but they are alright and with their righthanded laden lineup should be just fine against the lefty Randy Wolf.
Houston has quality righthanded batters in Lee, Tejada, Berkman (switch-hitter) and Pence and will get some licks in today. I do like Wolf as the guy can be pretty good but at this takeback with a solid Southpaw ourselves in Wandy RodrioguezI'm fine backing the visitors.
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The Houston lefthander is better at MinuteMaid, there is no denying that but he is not a dud on the road and even though he is up against the team with the best record in the game I will back him and expect the Astros to be in this thing until the very end and have a great chance to win the game.
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Manny and the Blue had a great first half and are a legitimate World Series Contender. But I can't say that I am fully sold on them and can see a loss in their future today!
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1♦ Astros
Alex Smart
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Oakland Athletics -128
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The LA Angels when they are healthy are an explosive offense team, but they now start the 2nd half of the season with a few key bats out of the lineup including Torii Hunter Vladimir Guerrero and possibly Juan Rivera who is is day-to-day with a tight hamstring). Considering the Angles banged up wings, the Oakland Athletics look like a very viable wagering option with the very capable Dallas Braden(7-7, 3.12 ERA) on the hill. It must be noted that the As are 7-2 L/9 when Braden starts against a wining team with a win % of .540 to .620 like LAA. The Halos are also at a disadvantage with their starting hurler Ervin Santana(1-5, 7.81 ERA), who has recorded a ugly 0-3 record along with a nasty looking 9.88 ERA in his last three trips to the hill. I know Santana has pitched well in the past vs the As, but all good things must eventually come to end.......... Play on the Oakland As
JIM FEIST
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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES / FLORIDA MARLINS
Take UNDER
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Coming back from the All-Star break, offenses are not always ready to roll. Florida is a good-sized park for pitchers and a pair of hot pitchers are on the hill. Philadelphia lefty Jamie Moyer is 3-0 his last three starts, and over his last four starts he.5?s allowed just one run twice. Florida righty Chris Volstad has also been hot, walking just 4 batters his last 18 innings with a 3.00 ERA. Look for a lower scoring game than oddsmakers expect. Play the Phillies/Marlins Under the total.
Robert Ferringo
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Take Colorado over San Diego
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I think that the Padres are going to spend most of the second half of the year the same way they spent the first half: losing. Colorado has won seven of the last 10 meetings and Aaron Cook is a sweet 10-4 against the Dads the last 14 times he has faced them. San Diego is 8-21 while Colorado is 27-9. That kind of sums up the direct these two are headed. Colorado is 13-4 on the road and they are 11-1 against a right-handed starter. The Rockies stay hot and pick up a solid win over sinking San Diego.
Doc's Sports
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Take Houston Astros +140 over Los Angeles Dodgers
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Coming out of the All-star break, the Astros begin a four-game set vs. the Dodgers. Then they return home to play a three-game series against the NL Central-leading Cardinals. They will have to continue to play consistent baseball in these two series to avoid falling out of the race in the NL Central. After 28 games they were 10 games under .500 Since then, the Astros have posted a 25-15 record. It took awhile for lefty Wandy Rodriguez (8-6, 2.96) to get going, but he has won 3 of his past 4 starts. He faces Randy Wolf (4-3, 3.45) who has been anything but dominating of late. LA appears to be looking over their shoulders as the hot Giants continue to creep closer. We like Wandy, in this spot at a very nice price, to get Houston off on the right foot..
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
293 - 193 run 60 % 41-22 run here
Thursday Fla. Marlins
8)
The Spread
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, 7:05PM ET
Chi Cubs are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 4-9 SU in their last 13 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Chi Cubs
Pick: Chicago
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, 7:10PM ET
Milwaukee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 11 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Pick: Cincinnati
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, 10:05PM ET
Colorado is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Colorado's last 14 games
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games when playing at home against Colorado
Pick: San Diego
Matt Fargo
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Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: 3Houston Astros +130
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While the Dodgers are in excellent shape in the National League West, the Astros are far from out of anything in the National League Central. They trail the Cardinals by just 3.5 games and they are in better shape there than they are in the Wild Card race where they are five games behind the Giants. Houston won four of five games prior to the break and it looks to start strong in the second half. The Astros send their most consistent pitcher to the hill as Mandy Rodriguez had an excellent first half. He posted a 2.96 ERA through 18 first half starts with the Astros going 12-6 in those games. His numbers on the road are not as good but he was hurt by only two bad stats in nine road outings. He allowed three runs or fewer in those other seven games. The Dodgers counter with Randy Wolf who is arguably the biggest surprise in the National League. He has a 3.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP which are his lowest numbers since 2002. While it would be a great story for him to keep it up throughout the entire season, I just do not see it happening. He has been average at home with a 4.04 ERA and he has yet to pick up a win in nine home outings. Houston is hitting .291 against left-handed pitching including .311 over its last 10 games and both of those averages top Los Angeles. The Astros are 4-1 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Houston also falls into a very solid contrarian underdog situation. Play against National League favorites of less than -150 that have an on-base percentage of .340 or better and starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 2.50 or better over his last three starts going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. This situation is 28-13 (68.3 percent) since 1997 with the average run differential being +1.4 rpg in favor of the underdog. 3* Houston Astros.
John Ryan
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New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta as they host the Mets set to start at 7:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-8 making 25.3 units since 2003. Play against road dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a poor power team hitting = 2.000 over his last 3 starts. Mets had a very disappointing first half and things are not projected to change based on the AiS grading and the supporting cast of angles. Note that the Mets are just 12-28 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons; 5-13 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons; 47-61 (-29.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. Mets starter Perez has been horrific posting an 8.78 season ERA and 10.03 over his last 3 starts. What is truly alarming is the fact that he has allowed more walks than innings pitched. For the season he has allowed 28 BB in 26.7 IP and over the past 3 starts allowed 16 BB while recording just 7 K’s in 11.7 IP. Atlanta starter Lowe is a down in the zone type of pitcher getting far more ground ball outs than fly ball outs. He has allowed just 6 HR in 112.7 IP on the season. Take the Braves.
Freddy Wills
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Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Coming off a 4-1 week and 19-9 our last 28 Free Picks given to you! We are ready for the 2nd Half of the MLB season as the first half has been a blast!
Today's Free Pick Dodgers -140 (1DIME) (1-5SCALE)
Wandy Rodriguez on the road = not as good as home! Randy Wolf will be going for the Dodgers and he has a 0.98 WHIP and a 2.45ERA off his last three starts. The Dodgers are 13-3 in his last 16 home starts. They are 11-2 in his last 13 home starts when he is the favorite. He owns Berkman (3-22) over his career and Berkman has been the reason why the Astros are playing better ball as of late.
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Astros are 7-19 in the last 26 road starts vs. a winning team with Wandy on the mound. The Dodgers own a .284 career average vs. Wandy and they are hitting .300 on the season at home vs. LHP.
Tom Freese
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Colorado is 11-1 their last 12 road games vs. righty starters and they are 27-9 their last 36 games. The Rockies are 15-5 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 6-1 in the last 7 starts made by Aaron Cook. San Diego is 8-21 their last 29 games overall and they are 7-19 their last 26 games vs. righty starters. The Padres are 2-11 off a win and they are 2-5 in the last 7 starts made by Chad Gaudin. PLAY ON COLORADO (Cook vs. Gaudin)
Graig Trapp
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
Betting Trends
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-Brewers are 6-1 in Loopers last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
-Brewers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
-Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
-Reds are 0-7 in Baileys last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
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Pretty hard to imagine that an unproven starter like Bailey is a favorite today. Well we are not fooled we are going with the Brewers and Looper today. Looper has been consitent all year he holds team to under 4 runs per game in about 6.5 innings. If he can repeat that performance today they will win. MIL has a great lineup and verse Bailey who gives up a ton of walks and HR's watch out. MIL will score at least 7 runs today and win going away. SCORE: MIL 7 - CIN 4
Ben Burns
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Under 8.5
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Eight of the last 13 meetings between the A's and Angels have stayed below the total. This evening's game could also prove low-scoring.
Braden goes for the A's and he's been terrific. Over his last three starts, he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. In nine home starts on the season, he's got a 2.84 ERA and a 1.193 WHIP. Not surprisingly, six of those nine games have fallen below the total. In his last home start, he limited the Tigers to a mere five hits and one run, through seven complete innings. In fact, including that gem, Braden has allowed two earned runs or less in eight straight starts and three or less in 10 straight. He's gone at least six innings in nine of those 10 games, too. He went 5 1/3 in the other.
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Braden will have the advantage of facing the Angels without Guerrero and Hunter. He's made four career starts vs. the Angels, all of which have stayed below the total, posting a solid 3.27 ERA in those games.
Santana has admittedly had some trouble in the first half. However, a closer look shows that his struggles have come primarily at home. In three road starts, he's got a respectable 3.60 ERA and 1.249 WHIP. He averaged nearly seven innings in those three games, two of which stayed below the total. Dating back to last season, Santana has seen 13 of his last 18 road starts stay below the total.
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Santana should be very happy to start the second half off in Oakland. He's made 13 starts vs. the A's and has allowed three earned runs or less in ALL 13 of them. He also went a minimum of six complete innings in ALL 13 of those games, going more than six in 12 of them. Overall, he's got an outstanding 1.38 ERA in those 13 games, 10 of which stayed below the total. The last time he faced the A's, which was here at Oakland last summer, he tossed seven shutout innings, striking out 10 along the way, en route to a 4-1 victory. Consider the Under