Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday July, 19

Rob Vinceletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston fits a rare system here tonight. We want to plays on home teams with a total of 10 or higher that's comes in off a home win by 5 or more runs while scoring 10 or more runs with a total that was 10 or higher, vs an opponent off a road loss by 5 or more runs that scored 2 or less runs and had 4 or less hits and 4 or less men left on base. This system has popped up seven time the past few years and has not lost. Boston averages 5.2 runs vs left handers and has 9 of the last 11 at home vs left handed pitchers. Chicago has Quintana on the mound and he has tailed off over his past 3 starts with a 5.68 era. He will oppose Clay Buchholz tonight. Buchholz has been decent over his last 2 starts vs Chicago allowing 3 runs in 13 innings. Look for Boston to take the finale.

Ben Burns

Houston vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego

The Padres are enjoying a rare winning streak. Yesterday's blowout win was their fourth victory in their last five games. On the other hand, the Astros are just 1-6 their last seven. This should provide the Padres with a solid chance to keep the positive momentum going for another night.

Volquez has a respectable 3.22 ERA at home. In his last start here at PetCo, he allowed just one run through seven complete innings. He had 10 K's in that game, the Padres winning by a score of 2-1.

Harrell, on the other hand, had a poor 6.21 ERA on the road. The Astros are a money-burning 2-9 (-5.3) when he takes the mound away from Houston.

Volquez should be happy to see Houston. He's 5-0 with a stellar 2.53 ERA in seven starts vs. the Astros. Consider laying the wood.

Marc Lawrence

NY Mets vs. Washington
Pick: NY Mets

The Mets and Nats close out a three-game series in the nation's capitol Thursday afternoon where R. A. Dickey opposes Gio Gonzalez in a matchup of All-Star hurlers. Dickey toes the slab in great KW form with 21 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three starts knowing he is 4-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his last five team starts against Washington in this park. With Gonzalez having failed to last more than 6 innings in any of his last eight starts, look for the G-man to fall to 0-2 in his career team starts in this series here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play in the Mets.

Steve Janus

Miami Marlins -125

The Cubs have been playing much better of late, but don't let their recent success fool you into thinking this team will keep it up. There is a reason the Marlins are favored on Thursday, and it's definitely worth putting a little action on. Miami 17-7 in their last 24 games as a road favorite and a solid 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.

Mark Buehrle take the mound for Miami and is worth a shot at this price. Buehrle is 13-3 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 years He also comes in pitching some of his best baseball of the season. Buehrle is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA over his last three starts. Miami is also 5-1 in Buehrle's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Dave Cokin

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

No Joey Votto for the Reds, but this is still a capable team, and I like their offense against Joe Saunders. I also like under the radar Mike Leake to maintain what has been an okay run. The Reds are the choice to top the Diamondbacks.

Jim Feist

Yankees vs Athletics
Pick: Under

Oakland is one of the tougher hitters parks in baseball, especially in the thick, night air of the bay. It's not surprising that Oakland's home games are 17-26 O/U this season. But what surprises me even more is that the Yankees have been a good under team this season, going 38-51 O/U. Anytime you look to take an UNDER, as we are here tonight, you need good bullpens. The Yankess pen has a road ERA of just 2.69 while Oakland has a home ERA of 2.67. Freddy Garcia has a high ERA for the Yankees (5.25) but his last three starts he's allowed just six total runs over 17 total innings with each game going UNDER. A.J Griffin starts for the A's and he's been good in his few starts, going 1-0 with a 2.62 ERA in four starts. In his last three, he's allowed just five earned runs over 18 innings (2.50 ERA). Garcia has been a great bet UNDER on the road, going 3-13 O/U in his last 16 road starts. I like tonight's game to stay under the total, even with a good hitting team like the Yankees.

Hollywood Sports

White Sox vs Red Sox
Pick: Over

Take the Over in the game between the Chicago White Sox and the Boston Red Sox while listing both starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Clay Buchholz. Boston (47-45) won Game Three of this series by a 10-1 score last night -- and they have now played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 9-10.5 range. The Red Sox have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total as a favorite. They send out Buchholz who is 8-3 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP this season. The right-hander has particularly struggled at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.51 WHIP and a .291 opponent's batting average. The Red Sox have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with Buchholz pitching as a favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. The White Sox have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Chicago (50-41) counters with Quintana who is 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. But while the rookie enjoys a 1.57 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .210 opponent's batting average at home, these numbers rise to a 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .260 opponent's batting average when on the road. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. And in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Boston, the game finished Over the Total in 5 of these contests. Look for those trends to continue in this one.

Scott Spreitzer

Detroit Tigers -138

Detroit lost by 13 runs on Tuesday night, but bounced right back with a rather easy win last night and they're now on a 9-2 run, overall. Detroit's bats have been red-hot during the run, averaging 5.73 rpg in their last 11, including their scoreless effort two nights ago. That's scary news for struggling righthander Jerome Williams. The Angel hurler was pitching better than expected and owned a 3.68 ERA not too long ago, but he's been pounded in his last four starts, allowing 19 earned runs and 36 base runners in 22 2/3 innings. The slide has pushed his season ERA almost a full run to 4.67. Williams has been knocked around on the road in 2012 with a 5.95 ERA & 1.49 WHIP and his team is on a 1-6 slide when he toes the road rubber. As a team, the Halos have now dropped six of their last eight road games. Max Scherzer has posted outstanding numbers in his last five home starts, including a 2.43 ERA & 0.96 WHIP, and he has 45 strikeouts in his last 33 1/3 home innings pitched. The Tigers enter on a 7-1 run at Comerica and they're on a 6-0 run when Scherzer takes the hill on four days rest. The Angels are a little sluggish right now and we'll back the Tigers to extend their run to 10-2 in their last 12.

Stephen Nover

Atlanta Braves -116

It has been 24 years since the Giants last swept the Braves on the road. I don't see that streak ending today.

I like Giants starter Madison Bumgarner a lot. But his ERA on the road is 4.43 compared to 1.81 at home pitching in spacious AT&T Park. Bumgarner also has a 4.66 career ERA versus Atlanta in two previous starts.

The Giants are 1-6 the past seven times Bumgarner has been an underdog. San Francisco has lost seven of the last nine times when Bumgarner has pitched against NL East opponents.

Atlanta starter Tim Hudson is off a poor performance, but rarely does he pitch poorly twice in a row. The Braves are 14-5 in Hudson's last 19 home starts. The Giants are 1-5 the last six times they've faced a right-hander.

Hudson has a strong history, too, against the Giants going 4-0 with a 2.63 ERA the last seven times he's faced them.

It's likely, too, that Hudson won't have to deal with hot-hitting Giants catcher Buster Posey, who is likely to be rested in this day contest following last night's extra-inning game.

CRAIG DAVIS

I'm on a 44-29 comp play run heading into today's selection on the Seattle Mariners with "you know who" on the hill against the Kansas City Royals. The "who" is this case is Felix Hernandez, who hasn't lost a game in over a month, and his Mariners are looking to rebound from last night's 8-7 loss in KC.

Hernandez is 7-5 on the season with a 2.92 ERA, but is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA over his last six starts since getting roughed up by the Padres back on June 12th. Get this: he's allowed one run or fewer in five of those six starts and, better yet, has surrendered only one total earned run over his last 16 2/3 innings.

The former Cy Young Award winner was able to three-hit the Texas Rangers in his last outing, including 12 Ks and no walks (that number is huge for him) in a 7-0 win.

One thing today, however, is going to have to change if the Mariners plan to win this game. They MUST provide Felix some run support. Despite pitching fairly well in his last three starts against the Royals, he dropped all three because Seattle didn't score a single run in any of those last three starts.

Trust me, that won't happen today.

Seattle, despite yesterday's loss, has been playing better of late, scoring 25 runs on 39 hits in winning two of its last three.

Today the Mariners face Will Smith, who is getting recalled from the minors to fill-in for Luke Hochevar. This is his second trip to the big leagues this season. He started three games previously and was rocked, going 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA. But since his demotion, the left-hander went 3-0 with a 1.30 ERA with 29 K's in 27.2 innings in four Triple-A starts with Omaha.

Obviously we're going to have to pay a higher price on Seattle because of the Royals pitching change, but it's worth it with King Felix on the hill.

5♦ SEATTLE

JEFF BENTON

Thursday's freebie is the Yankees over the A's.

Here you have a case of hot (Yankees 4 straight wins, 9-2 last 11) versus hot (Oakland 10 wins their last 12 games), but I ask you; at the end of the day who do you trust more to get the win?

The answer is simple: the Yankees!

New York has already swept a three game set from the A's in Oakland back in late May, and they have won the last nine series meetings played in the O.co Coliseum.

A.J Griffin has looked sharp in his time up with Oakland, as he is 1-0 with a 2.62 ERA in his four starts, and the Athletics have won three of the four games that he has started. Still, you have to wonder how the youngster will handle this dangerous New York lineup.

The Yankees are getting hits from just about everyone these days, and my guess is they will be able to get to Griffin for enough to make the lead hold up for Freddy Garcia who has gone 2-0 in his three starts since rejoining the rotation for the injured Andy Pettitte.

Garcia has notched wins over the Angels and the Red Sox his last two times to the mound, and I like him to keep his team in this game until the big bats break it open against the rookie.

Take the Yankees.

4♦ N.Y.YANKEES

Jimmy Boyd

Chicago Cubs +113

The Cubs, who have quietly won 13 of their last 18, are showing value in the home underdog role against a Miami club that has dropped 24 of its last 37. The Cubs have won 9 of their last 11 at home while the Marlins have dropped 9 of their last 13 on the road. Buehrle has pitched well for the Marlins of late, but Maholm has pitched even better for the Cubs. Buehrle has a 1.25 ERA over his last 3 starts, but Maholm has a 0.84 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Miami southpaw hasn't been quite as sharp on the road, where he is 3-5 with an ERA of 3.81. Maholm has been at his best at home, where he is 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA. Take the Cubs.

Joe Gavazzi

Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

These are a pair of late bloomers. With meaningful additions to their batting orders, the Angels and Tigers were expected to bolt from the gate in challenging for division superiority. The Angels made a nice run going 25-8 including 14-1 away. But the bloom is off the rose. They are now struggling at 7-9 and have gone 4-8 away. They are struggling to keep contact with the Division leading Rangers. July has seen Detroit make their surge. They are 9-2 recently with a .289 BA averaging 5.7 runs. They have pulled to within 2 ½ games of the Division leading White Sox. A big reason for their resurgence has been the improvement of Scherzer. He is 2-0 with a 3.50 his last 3, a big improvement on his 4.84 ERA for the YTD. The Angels counter with Williams who continues to struggle with his asthma. Recently, he is 0-4 with a7.54 ERA. And his work on the road leaves much to be desired. The Angels are 1-5 in his road starts where he has posted a 5.55 ERA.

SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA +102 over Baltimore

The Orioles have just eight wins in their past 24 games and as a result of that, they do not warrant being road favorites. Wei-Yin Chen has average numbers (3.80 ERA – 1.24 WHIP) and some underwhelming skills to support them. His profile doesn’t stand out either with groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates of 38%/20%/42%. Chen is coming off a gem against the Tigers but a look at his game log reveals that he rarely throws back-to-back quality starts. He’s been tagged for four runs or more in half of his last eight starts. Cole DeVries posted outstanding strikeout and walk numbers in 70 innings (12 starts) at the Triple-A level this year before his call-up. He’s made just two starts after six relief appearances in the majors and is much more comfortable in the starter’s role. He was roughed up against the A’s in his last start but a letdown was a distinct possibility after he dominated the Rangers in Texas in his first start. That’s a significant accomplishment. DeVries has brought his good K/BB ratio (24K’s/8BB) with him and certainly deserves another look as a pooch at home against one of the coldest teams in the majors.