SPORTS ADVISORS
San Francisco (42-35) at St. Louis (42-38)
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The Giants send left-hander Barry Zito (4-7, 4.55 ERA) to the mound at Busch Stadium for the finale of a four-game series with the Cardinals, who will start right-hander Todd Wellemeyer (6-7, 5.68).
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Last night, San Francisco’s Matt Cain and St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright engaged in a pitchers’ duel, with neither ultimately figuring in the decision as the Cardinals won 2-1 on a Colby Rasmus homer in the 10th inning. The Giants have still won five of their last eight games – all on the road – and are on further runs of 8-4 overall and 6-3 against winning teams.
Conversely, St. Louis is on a 2-6 slide and carries additional negative streaks of 1-7 against the N.L. West, 2-5 at home and 2-4 against winning teams.
San Francisco has owned this rivalry lately, taking six of the last eight overall, and the Giants have gone 6-3 in their last nine contests at Busch Stadium (4-1 in the last five).
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Zito has followed a four-game losing streak by going 3-1 in his last five starts, with the no-decision coming in Saturday’s outing at Milwaukee. In that contest, he got through five innings unscathed and with the Giants leading 4-0, but he gave up back-to-back homers in the sixth inning and exited with two outs and the game tied, and San Fran ended up losing 7-6.
Zito is 3-4 with a 5.20 ERA in eight road starts this season, and he’s 0-3 with a 4.57 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis, including a 6-2 home loss in May in which he allowed three runs on 10 hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings.
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The Cards have won three of their last four behind Wellemeyer, but he got the early hook Saturday at home against the Twins, after allowing three runs on four hits and four walks in just 2 1/3 innings of a 5-3 victory. In fact, Wellemeyer has allowed 21 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings over his last five starts, for a 7.17 ERA.
Wellemeyer is 3-5 with a 5.74 ERA in 10 home outings this season, but he’s 2-0 with a much more solid 3.00 ERA in three career starts against the Giants.
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The over has hit in four of the last five meetings between these rivals, and the over for the Giants is on runs of 36-18-1 against the N.L. Central, 5-2 behind Zito, 5-1 with the southpaw facing the N.L. Central and 7-3-2 in Zito’s last 12 road starts. On the flip side, the under for the Cardinals is on rolls of 4-1 against lefties, 22-10-1 at home against winning teams, 5-1 with Wellemeyer facing a winning squad and 4-1 behind Wellemeyer at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee (42-36) at Chicago Cubs (37-38)
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The Cubs return from a rough 10-game road trip looking to make up some ground in the N.L. Central when they send right-hander Ryan Dempster (4-5, 4.09 ERA) against the Brewers and fellow righty Seth McClung (3-1, 3.55) at Wrigley Field.
Chicago wrapped up a three-game set in Pittsburgh on Wednesday with a 4-1 victory, getting seven solid innings from Randy Wells (one run on six hits and a walk) and homers from Derrek Lee and Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs went 3-7 on the road swing, but on their home field, they are on positive runs of 4-0 overall, 6-2 against winning teams and 9-3 against right-handed starters.
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Milwaukee got shut out by Mike Pelfrey and the Mets in a 1-0 home setback last night. The Brewers have still won four of their last six and are on further upswings of 16-5 in series openers and 40-19 in division play, but they are on skids against righties of 4-10 overall and 1-4 on the road.
The Cubs have lost five in a row with Dempster starting, mostly due to low run production. Dempster has allowed 11 runs in 30 2/3 innings in that stretch, for a solid 3.22 ERA, but in the first four games of the skid, Chicago totaled just five runs. On Saturday across town against the White Sox, the Cubs’ offense finally got going, but Dempster got roughed up for five runs on eight hits and three walks in five innings of an 8-7 loss.
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Dempster is 3-1 with a 4.14 ERA in six home starts this season, and he has been strong against the Brew Crew over the course of his career, going 9-3 with a 2.79 ERA in 37 appearances (15 starts). He has split his two starts against the Brewers this year, both at Milwaukee.
McClung has been almost exclusively a reliever this season, with 29 appearances but just one start. That start came Saturday at home against San Francisco, and he allowed three runs on six hits and two walks in four innings, though Milwaukee rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win 7-6.
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McClung is 1-0 with a 3.28 ERA in 14 home appearances this year, and he’s 0-1 with a 2.55 ERA in 10 career appearances against Chicago. This will mark his first start against the Cubs.
The under for the Cubs is on a bundle of runs, including 5-1 overall, 19-6-2 within the division and 11-4 against winning teams, and with Dempster starting, the under is on rolls of 5-1 overall and 4-1 in series openers. With McClung starting, the under for the Brewers is on streaks of 9-3-1 overall and 4-1-1 on the road, but the over for the Brewers is on stretches of 11-5 overall, 7-1 against losing teams and 6-1 on the highway.
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Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on surges of 13-6-2 overall, 5-1-2 in Chicago and 5-1 with Dempster taking the ball.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS
Bob Harvey
Atlanta Braves -136
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I’ve been told the key to making money with Atlanta this year is to back them every time they face a lefthander. If the Braves treatment of Cole Hamels on Wednesday night is any indication, I’m backing up the Brinks truck and throwing it all on Atlanta.
The Braves, who demolished Hamels and the Phillies 11-1, look for a repeat performance against A.J. Happ. He’s talented, he’s 5-0 but he’s also a southpaw. Happ is coming off a complete game 10-0 shutout of Toronto on Saturday and he may need an encore performance to keep the Phillies close.
Philadelphia is 4-13 in its last 17 games. That slide has a lot to due with the loss of Raul Ibanez who is on the disabled list Without him the Phils lackluster lineup has scored two or fewer runs in five of the last 11 games.
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Atlanta is 6-2 against Philadelphia this season and are poised for their fist series sweep in four years. The Braves have won three straight overall and will look to extend their streak with Javier Vazquez on the hill. The veteran righthander is just 5-7 but his ERA of 3.07 ranks in the top ten in the NL. Vazquez is also 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA in his two starts against the Phils this season. Among starting pitchers this season Vasquez leads the majors with 7.96 strikeouts per 100 pitchers (K/100P).
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Oh and about those lefthanders. Atlanta is hitting .272 on the season and .294 in their last ten games against southpaws.
Mike Rose
Edmonton Eskimos -9.5
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Over the past several seasons, the cogs that made the Blue Bombers go were QB Kevin Glenn, RB Charles Roberts, and WR Milt Stegall. But Glenn (free agency), Blink (trade), and Uncle Milt (retired) have all moved on from Winnipeg, and the team is forced to start anew. The new wave of Blue Bombers will be headed up by QB Stefan LeFors, who backed up QB Ricky Ray in Edmonton the L/2 seasons. There’s still a big question mark about how well LeFors, a University of Louisville product, can do at this level. He wasn’t even good enough to be the second string man last season, as Jason Maas took that responsibility. As a result, LeFors only threw four passes all season, one of which was picked off. RB Fred Reid showed some flashes last season, but he isn’t amongst the best backs the league has to offer. If there is one bright spot for the Bombers, it’s at wide receiver, where Derick Armstrong, Terrence Edwards, and Romby Bryant all have NFL-type talent. The defense is stock full of new names, and is a big reason why the team will have a whopping 20 new names on the roster this season.
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Thanks to the additions of DB Kelly Malveaux, DE Kai Ellis, and RB Jesse Lumsden, the green and gold really feel like they have a shot at taking all the marbles this season after a couple of sub-par years. New HC Richie Hall was the man that led Saskatchewan’s defense to the Grey Cup two years ago, and many in Canada feel as though his time to become a head coach in this league was far overdue. Many also think that the subtraction of former coach, the much-maligned Danny Maciocia, will aid the club. Capping the Eskies is pretty easy. As goes Ricky Ray, so will go the Eskimos. Ray led the CFL last year in both completion percentage (69.8%) and passing yards (5,661), and he is largely accepted as one of the best in the biz over the L/10 years or so. He leads an offense that averaged 25.6 points per game last season, but that average should go up thanks to the addition of Lumsden, who, when healthy, is arguably one of the best backs in the league.
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Winnipeg has the longest Grey Cup drought of any team in the CFL at 18 years. They’re probably not going to be taking too many steps in the right direction this year, as it’s clearly a rebuilding era. Though LeFors has looked at this Edmonton defense for his entire career in practice, this defense knows him just as well. Expect to see some jitters early on from the young starter, while the veteran, Ray eats up a questionable defense.
DAVE COKIN
HOUSTON ASTROS / SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take SAN DIEGO PADRES
There's not much to cheer about for Padres fans, but the team is getting some outstanding pitching from two unexpected sources. Kevin Correia and Chad Gaudin have been doing some outstanding work lately, and Correia looks for another good start today. Wandy Rodriguez won't be easy for the punchless Padres to solve, but San Diego is at least respectable at home and I give them a decent shot at a win in today's series finale.
JIM FEIST
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS / CINCINNATI REDS
Take CINCINNATI REDS
It's been a good week for the Reds, winning at Toronto then taking 2 of 3 at Cleveland. They face an Arizona team a long way from home. Arizona starter Doug Davis (3-8) has been struggling with control, walking 11 batters in his last 3 starts (19 innings). Arizona has been struggling badly with a terrible offense. That's just what the doctor ordered for Cincy ace Aaron Harang, who has a sizzling 1.66 ERA in 54 career innings (11 walks) against Arizona. Play the Reds.
Jimmy The Moose
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
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The Phillies were pounded last night but look for them to bounce back with a win on Thursday. Philadelphia is 9-2 in their last 11 road games where they total has been set between 7.0-8.5. The Phillies are 8-3 in Happ's last 11 starts. Philadelphia has won 5 of his last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Braves are 1-6 in Vazquez's last 7 starts. In his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record they are 1-4. They are 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a favorite. The Phillies are 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. Play on the Philadelphia Phillies +.
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Play on: Philadelphia
Matt Fargo
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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I am taking a shot with the Phillies on Thursday to avoid the sweep in Atlanta. Despite dropping the first two games of this series, Philadelphia is still 26-14 on the road which is the best record away from home in the Majors. It cannot come away with a winning roadtrip but if nothing else, it wants to head into the huge weekend series with the Mets on a winning note. The Braves are hanging around in the division only because no team is taking change. Atlanta is still three games under .500 for the season including a game under .500 at home. Last night, Jair Jurrjens took a no-hitter into the seventh inning so we are not likely to see another pitching performance similar to that tonight. The Braves go with Javier Vazquez who is having a solid season with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP though 16 starts. Those numbers are meaningless however as the Braves are only 6-10 in those games including losses in six of his last seven starts. Also, they are just 3-6 in the nine home games that Vazquez has toed the rubber. He has ad good success against the Phillies of late but all of his starts have come in Philadelphia. He will be opposed by J.A. Happ who is having a very good season as well. He has tossed two straight quality starts including his best game of the season, a five-hit shutout at Toronto in his last outing. He has been great on the road, posting a 1.67 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in four starts and five relief appearances. Three of those four starts have been quality performances. He finished last season by pitching against the Braves twice and put together two great games, both being quality and together resulting in a 1.42 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Both also ended up being Phillies victories. The Phillies fall into a very good underdog contrarian situation as well. Play on road teams between +125 and -125 that are hitting.240 or worse over their last 10 games and going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This situation is 60-36 (62.5 percent) since 1997 and with it being an average underdog situation, the results are even better. 3* Philadelphia Phillies
Frank Jordan
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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J.A. Happ is 5-0 with an even 3 era. Philadelphia is playing great which is saving them as for some reason they are having a hard time at home. Atlanta brought in Javier Vazquez in in the off season to bolster the staff, but the plan quite hasn't worked yet as he is just 5-7 on the year with an era a shade over 3. Look for Philadelphia to continue that great play on the road where they are 26-14. Play Philadelphia
Big Al McMordie
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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Righthanded veteran Aaron Harang is usually one of the Reds most reliable starters and that has been true for most of this season as well. Although, in Harang's last start on June 26, he had his second-worst start of the year when he went into Cleveland and gave up seven runs (five earned) on 10 hits in just 4 2/3 innings. A start at home against the Diamondbacks may be just what the doctor ordered for Harang and the Reds. Tonight's Arizona starter, veteran Doug Davis epitomizes exactly what's wrong with this team. Davis has actually been one of the better starters in the NL this season, but you'd never know it from his record. Despite a 3.28 ERA and quality starts in 10 of his 16 outings this season, Davis has a pathetic 3-8 record. Arizona combines that deadly combination of a very weak hitting lineup with extremely poor defense which usually results in a loss (hence its 31-46 record, the third-worst in the Majors). The Diamondbacks are the worst defensive team in baseball, leading all others with 71 team errors through last weekend. Cincinnati's on a bit of a roll having moved into third place in its division, ahead of the Cubs, only four games back and flirting once again with the .500 mark. Take the Reds.
Craig Trapp
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Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Houston Astros
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Betting Trends
-Astros are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
-Astros are 5-1 in Rodriguezs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
-Padres are 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog.
-Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
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This Astro's team has owned SD the last 2 years. They look to make it 8 wins in last 9 games tonight. On the mound for HOU today is Rodriguez who has been great all year! His record (6-6) is very deceiving as his ERA is 3.35 which is top 20 in the National League starters but run support has not been good for him. On the other side Correira takes the mound trying to keep up his recent success. He is 2-1 in last three only allowing 6 runs in 21 innings. This will be an easy game to call. Both pitchers will hold down these two offenses thru the first 6 innings. But after HOU gets into the very average bullpen of SD they will score at least 3 runs late. HOU is a much improved team as of late winning 7 of last 10 and will add another one today. SCORE HOU 5 - SD 1
Red Dog Sports
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Arizona at Cincinnati
Play: Under 8.5
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There have been 41 unders, 13 overs and 5 pushes in the last 59 meetings and Aaron Harang has 8 unders and 0 overs in his last 8 starts vs. Arizona. Davis has an ERA of 1.83 in his last 3 starts while Harang's ERA this season is 3.95. Both pitchers have 6 overs and 9 unders this year. Look for another under on Thursday afternoon!
Marc Lawrence
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Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
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The White Sox send Mark Buerhle to the hill against the Royals in the opener of a four game series in Kansas City this evening. Buerhle enters tonight fray with team starts wins in 5 of his last 6 road games with 6 walks and 27 strikeouts in those efforts. He's also 13-2 in his last 15 team starts in this series. Back the better team with the better arm here tonight.
MTI Sports
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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In Vazquezs last start he went seven and two-thirds, struck out eight and allowed a lone run. The Braves lost the game 1-0. This is a bad spot for the Braves. The Atlanta hitters simply havent given Vazquez any run support in this situation. Perhaps its because Vazquez whines and complains about poor run support rather than trying to encourage his team, as many other pitchers do. Whatever the case, the Braves are 0-5 as a FAVORITE with Vazquez when they scored fewer than three runs in his last start. Atlanta has scored a TOTAL of six runs in these five games.
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The Braves have won the first two game of this series and are going for the sweep here. Yesterday, the Braves treated Cole Hamels rudely and won 11-1. The Phillies are awfully tough in this spot. Philadelphia is 20-11 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they never led, 15-7 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and 25-13 in the last game of a three game series.
Bobby Maxwell
Houston at SAN DIEGO +110
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Scored us a FREE winner on Wednesday as the Rangers got the ninth-inning win at home over the Angels. Today we'll get you another one as we go with the Padres at home to take care of the Astros.
We'll grab the small underdog in this one as the Padres are sending their best pitcher of late to the hill in this afternoon game in San Diego. The Padres Kevin Correia (5-5, 4.23 ERA) has been dominant lately and we'll back him in this one.
Correia is 2-1 in his last three games with a 2.49 ERA. The Padres have won four of his last five starts and he's held the opposition to three runs or less in each of those five. He went seven innings Saturday in Texas and held the Rangers to three runs on five hits in a 7-3 victory.
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In Correia's last three starts at Petco Park in San Diego he's given up five runs in 20.2 innings. He faced these Astros back on May 9 and held them to two runs on four hits in six innings but the Padres fell 5-4.
Wandy Rodriguez (6-6, 3.35) is on the mound for Houston and he's got a 5.82 ERA in his last three games and 4.23 ERA away from home. He's given up 11 runs in his last three games, including four in six innings to the Tigers last Friday.
The Padres tend to play well in Thursday contests, going 8-3 in their last 11. And they are on runs of 7-2 agaisnt the N.L. Central and 4-1 against southpaws. Even though they lost Wednesday, the Padres are 5-3 in the last eight meetings with the Astros. We'll play the home team to win this one on get-away day from San Diego.
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3♦ SAN DIEGO
Dominic Fazzini
San Francisco at ST. LOUIS -135
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Todd Wellemeyer (6-7, 5.68 ERA) is clinging to his spot in the Cardinals’ rotation after going 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA in six June starts. The right-hander allowed three runs on four hits and four walks in just 2 1/3 innings Saturday against Minnesota.
Wellemeyer could redeem himself today against the Giants, who he is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts against.
And Wellemeyer will be opposed by San Francisco left-hander Barry Zito, who has not enjoyed facing St. Louis, and Albert Pujols in particular, since coming to the National League.
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Zito (4-7, 4.55) is 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA in three starts vs. the Cardinals since joining the Giants in 2007. And Pujols is 5-for-9 with two homers and eight RBIs against Zito.
While Pujols has been punishing just about every pitcher he faces, he has really inflicted damage against San Francisco, going 12-for-19 (.632) with four homers this season.
Zito went 3-1 in five June starts, but that is a little misleading as his ERA was 5.81. He might start July off with a higher figure than that once Pujols and his teammates get done with him. Go with the Cardinals.
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2♦ ST. LOUIS