Karl Garrett
San Francisco at ST. LOUIS -135
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Winner # 3 in a row last night, as the White Sox got the job done!
Tonight in the senior circut, go with the Cardinals to salvage the 2-2 split against the Giants.
St. Louis gritted out the 2-1 extra-innings win last night, and tonight they get to face a pitcher they have had their way with. Barry Zito has dropped his last 3 starts against the Redbirds, allowing 9 runs in 17 innings of work.
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His counterpart Todd Wellemeyer is 2-0 the last 3 times he has faced the Giants.
St. Louis has been struggling for sure, but the G-Man still feels the Giants recent uptick is a bit of a fluke.
The Cards are at home, and they are the better team. Let's back them!
St. Louis is your Thursday comp play winner # 4 in a row.
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4♦ ST. LOUIS
Free Sports Picks Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
287 - 188 run 60 % 35-18 run here 😮
Thurs: Chi White Sox
========================================
Free Sports Picks from Undefeated:
Ariz/Cinci. game UNDER the posted total.
1 - 1 run here 50% :-
Sports Gambling Hotline
Milwaukee +135 at CUBS
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This price seems a little bit high on the Cubs who are just 3-7 their last 10 games.
Sure, Seth McClung is only making his second start of this season, but McClung has been around the block a time or two, and let's face facts, Chicago's offense ain't exactly "Murderer's Row" this season. Chances are McClung can hang in there in this assignment.
Ryan Demspter has been struggling, as the righty has gone 0-2 his last 3 starts, with 10 runs allowed in his last 18 innings of work. Dempster is also 1-1 against the Brewers in 2 starts this season, with 8 runs allowed in 12 innings on the hill.
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Milwaukee is on a 4-2 run their last 6, and they did take 5 of the 9 played at Wrigley Field last season.
We think the price is right for a play on the Brew Crew, as the bats in that lineup certainly have been showing more pop then the bats in the Cubs starting nine.
Play on the Brewers.
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2♦ MILWAUKEE
Matt Rivers
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For Thursday take the Diamondbacks at The Great American Ballpark.
This is far from the greatest slate that I have ever seen therefore making this comp play far from the greatest comp play that I have ever released. But with that said I'll take my chances here with the visitors from Arizona.
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Doug Davis is one of the more snakebit pitchers in all of baseball right now. All the guy does is go out there and throw goosegg after goosegg up but yet he has a pretty poor record. This is directly attributed to the Diamondbacks underachieving and just not good offense. At some point he is going to get some help, he just has to!
Meanwhile Cincinnati is far from a juggernaut themselves even with Joey Votto back swinging the stick. Sure the Canadian basher helps the Cincinnati lineup but all in all the Reds do not have enough big boppers to take advantage of their hitter friendly stadium and are just a mediocre at the very best overall club.
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I am the first one to talk about how piss-poor the snakes have been this season and even after the firing and then hiring of AJ Hinch not much has improved. Arizona is still a last placed team that is going absolutely nowhere this season. But with that said there are some pieces like Upton, Reynolds, Drew and others and there is no reason why they can't hit a good hurler but far from great one in Aaron Harang.
At some point Davis will get some run support, if not for the Law of Averages alone, and in a ballpark which is conducive to runs as Great American is, I would not be shocked to see the Diamondbacks put up some crooked numbers today and help out their Cancer surving quality Lefty.
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1♦ Diamondbacks
Jr Tips
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PHILLIES vs. NY METS
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Philadelphia will try to get back in the win column against the Braves as they look to J.A. Happ for stability who is coming off his first major league shutout. Happ will start t against the Atlanta Braves for the first time. The left hander Happ (5-0, 3.00 ERA) allowed five hits and no walks, needing just 100 pitches to complete a 10-0 win in his last outing. The Phillies have dropped 13 of their last 17 and Philadelphia didn't manage a hit until the seventh inning of an 11-1 loss.Since slugger Raul Ibanez has been on the disabled list, Philadelphia's lineup has been inconsistent scoring two or fewer runs five times in the last 11 contests. The Braves are 6-2 against the Phillies this season and are looking for their fourth straight victory and will start Javier Vazquez (5-7, 3.04), who ranks among the top 10 in the NL in ERA, but has little run support from his team as he lost 1-0 against Boston Saturday after pitching 7 2/3 strong innings with eight strikeouts. In his last seven starts, the right-hander is 1-4 with a 2.61 ERA, but has gotten only nine runs to work with. Vazquez is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA in two starts against the Phillies this year. Two of the hottest pitchers in the National League will face each other in a pitchers dual tonight where 3 runs will be enough to get the win.
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TAKE UNDER 8
DUNKEL
NY Mets at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to build on their 11-3 record in Paul Maholm's last 14 starts as a home favorite. Pittsburgh is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-145).
Game 951-952: Arizona at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 13.764; Cincinnati (Harang) 15.407
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-135); Over
Game 953-954: Houston at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.745; San Diego (Correia) 15.328
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Over
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 14.263; Atlanta (Vazquez) 15.529
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Under
Game 957-958: San Francisco at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 14.894; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.496
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Over
Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (McClung) 14.741; Cubs (Dempster) 16.256
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-145); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-145); N/A
Game 961-962: Seattle at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 16.709; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.066
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-300); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+250); Over
Game 963-964: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.949; Kansas City (Chen) 15.075
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Under
Game 965-966: Baltimore at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.954; LA Angels (Lackey) 15.625
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Under
Game 967-968: NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 14.242; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.563
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-145); Under
WNBA
Connecticut at Indiana
The Fever are coming off a 63-54 win over New York and look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Indiana is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4 1/2).
Game 601-602: Connecticut at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 109.931; Indiana 117.765
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4 1/2); Over
Game 603-604: Detroit at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 108.550; New York 115.722
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 7; 150
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 144
Dunkel Pick: New York (-4); Over
Game 605-606: Sacramento at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 107.032; Minnesota 113.603
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 6; 159
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6); Under
CFL
Winnipeg at Edmonton
The Bluebombers look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games in Week 1. Winnipeg is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Edmonton favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+9 1/2).
Game 405-406: Winnipeg at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 106.642; Edmonton 114.773
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 8; 56
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 9 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+9 1/2); Over
FRIDAY, JULY 3
Game 407-408: BC at Saskatchewan
Dunkel Ratings: BC 115.782; Saskatchewan 111.933
Dunkel Line: BC by 4; 55
Vegas Line: BC by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-1); Over
LT Profits
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Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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The Under is now on a 12-2-1 run in the last 15 Houston Astros games after the first three games of this four-game series vs. the San Diego Padres all went Under, and given that Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, look for more of the same tonight.
Granted, it took a minor miracle for the game last night to stay Under 8.5, as Houston led 6-1 in the middle of the fourth inning, but remember that shoddy defense was a contributing factor. Only three of those early runs was earned, and the fact that the teams needed that help to score is an indication of how difficult it is to score here. In fact, all games at Petco this year have averaged on 7.56 total runs combined.
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Padres starter Kevin Correia has caught fire lately, as he has now recorded five consecutive Quality Starts. More impressive is the fact that this streak is not solely a function of pitching in this stadium, as two of those starts came on the road. It is also worth noting that Correia already has a Quality Start in his only start vs. the Astros this season, and that outing came at Houston in a more hitter-friendly stadium.
The Astros counter with Wandy Rodriguez, who is 6-6 but with a very good 3.35 ERA. Sure, Wandy has continued his annoying habit of pitching extremely well at home and being very mediocre on the road, but he did toss a gem in his last road start, allowing only one run an two hits in seven innings in a 4-1 Houston victory vs. the Minnesota Twins at the Metrodome. Rodriguez will also be aided by that fact that San Diego is batting .199 vs. southpaws at home.
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This may look like a low total at first glance, but the Under is now 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in San Diego with five of those games producing a total runs output of seven or less.
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Pick: Astros/Padres Under 7.5
Spartan
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
I am supporting a play on the Aaron Harang and the Reds against the visiting Diamondbacks and lefty Doug Davis. Aaron sports a career record of only 2-4 against Arizona but in 8 starts his era is a sterling 1.66. He had a rough outing his last time on the hill against Cleveland but I look for a bounce back performance today. Davis is a underated pitcher in my opinion and an innings eater that could very well be picked up by someone in a trade soon. The Reds are only 3 games out in this pitiful division and I see them taking care of business in this spot. Small wager guys on the Reds!
Evan Altemus
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NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Play: UNDER 8.5
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Both of these line-ups have been absolutely horrible lately. Each team has really struggled to hit the ball based on injuries and trades. The Mets have been ravaged with injuries, as Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran are out with various injuries. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh continues to trade away their best players, which is devastating to a line-up that had problems scoring before the trades. Meanwhile, Tim Redding has started to pitch better and better. I expect him to have no problem handling the weak hitting Pirates. Pittsburgh's Paul Maholm has exhibited a strong home/road dichotomy with his performance recently. I expect him to have a dominating outing today and shut down the Mets. Look for both pitchers to go deep into the game as well.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
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The Milwaukee Brewers seem to hit better when they are away from Miller Park as they bat .262 on the road and score 5.1 runs per game. Both well above their home averages. The Brewers have fared well on the road in the month of July over the past two seasons going 9-1 in the situation. Brewers starter Seth McClung has an 8-2 TSR on the road in the second half of the season in his career. Milwaukee is also 21-10 against division foes this season. Chicago starter Ryan Dempster has struggled all season and has a 5-11 TSR to go along with an ERA over 5.00 in his last three starts. Go with Milwaukee.
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Play on: Milwaukee
Nelly
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Arizona + over Cincinnati
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Arizona has a terrible record but hiding is a team that has the talent to be a playoff contender. Injuries have been a big problem and the early season coaching change did not help as much as the front office has hoped. Still as bad as things have gone there have been some promising performances. Veteran Doug Davis is just 3-8 but his ERA is 3.10 on the season he is delivering great results even if it is not leading to wins. Davis has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts while allowing just one home run in that span. After a strong start to the season Aaron Harang had gone downhill, allowing ten runs and 18 hits in his last two starts. The Reds are just 7-9 in Harang starts even though he is often a modest favorite at home. Cincinnati owns a significant bullpen edge in this match-up but with two starters likely to go deep into the game it may not be as big of a factor. The road team has actually won six straight games in this series heading into Wednesday and Arizona has actually won or split seven of the last nine road series, it is the 15-28 home record that has killed the Diamondbacks as they have been very respectable away from the desert.
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The Cubs and Brewers were both playoff teams last season and this is a heated rivalry that has picked up intensity in recent years. The first six games between these teams has been a wash in 2009, find out who will take game 1 of tonight's series. Nelly's Baseball is coming off a strong week of picks last week and we are ready to deliver Thursday night with another winner.
The Spread
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, 12:35PM ET
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Pick: Arizona
Houston Astros at San Diego Padres, 3:35PM ET
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
San Diego is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home
Pick: Houston
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, 8:10PM ET
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 10 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Pick: Kansas City
Game Time Sports Advisors
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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We will back the Phillies and Happ tonight. We really like this kid. Phillies in a bit of funk and face a tough Javier Vasquez tonight. But the Phillies offense is deep enough to score a couple runs to win a close game. Happ has been solid since moving to the rotation.
ALEX SMART
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Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Under 7.5
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We all know PETCO Park in San Diego is a haven for pitchers, and never seems friendly to offenses. Thus the under is almost always a betting option when looking at the mlb betting board when the Fathers are at home. With the stable Wandy Rodriguez going to the hill for the visiting Houston Astros ( 8 scoreless innings the last time he faced SD-May 8), and the Padres returning fire with the Kevin Correia (4-1, 2.40 ERA in his L/5 starts) the under once again looks like solid bet. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 10-1-1 in Astros last 12 on natural surface. Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. . Correias L/4 starts have gone under and in his L/5 stats opposing offenses are hitting just .155 against him.. ....Play Under
Tom Freese
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San Francisco Giants at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
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The Giants are 10-3 off a loss and they are 6-1 when their opponent scored 2 or less runs in their last game. San Francisco is 8-3 when Barry Zito pitches with 4 days of rest. The Giants are 6-2 their last 8 meetings with the Cardinals. St. Louis is 4-10 off a win and they are 4-10 their last 14 games vs. losing teams. Starting pitcher Todd Wellemeyer has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Wellemeyer 4-9 his last 13 starts vs. winning teams. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO + (Zito vs. Wellemeyer)