Lenny Del Genio
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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Over
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Cubs have gone Under four straight games, but that streak should come to an end tonight with a pair of questionable pitchers on the mound. The Northsiders have lost each of Ryan Dempster?s three starts and a lot of that has to do with Dempster?s 5.09 ERA and 1.868 WHIP over that time frame. Brewers starter McClung makes just his 2nd start of the year and he lasted only four innings his first time out, allowing three runs and six hits. Take Over.
Freddy Wills
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New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Under 8½
Excellent angle here with the under we have both teams coming in last in HR hit this year at 49 a piece. Should be a good spot for both pitchers to have a solid start.
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Maholm has been good at home 3-1 1.96ERA and has a 3.65ERA vs. the Mets in 6 career starts. He'll go up against a lineup that is hitting .121 and scoring .93 runs per 9 innings vs. LHP. The Mets over last 10 still struggle .204 scoring just 1.23 runs per 9.
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Redding likely in a good spot to bounce back in my opinion the Pirates scoring just 1.27 runs per 9 on a .235 average over their last 5 games vs. RHP.
The Under is 14-3-1 in the Pirates last 18 games on grass.
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Take Under 8.5
Alex Grosse
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New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play Under 8½
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There is a lot of value betting the under with the total set at 8.5. The pitching matchup may not be favorable for this typle of play but each team is struggling too much offensively to put some points on the board. The Mets are more or less playing with a AAA roster and have been hitting only 0.230 in their last 10 overall and 0.204 in their last 10 versus left handed pitchers. The Pirates have also struggled offensively as of late, scoring only 9 runs in their last 4 outings.
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Bet the under.
Wunderdog
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Connecticut at Indiana
Pick: OVER 141.5
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Two of the hottest teams in the WNBA collide tonight in Indiana, as the Connecticut Sun will be in to play the Fever. The Fever is a much-improved team, and has covered their last six games while the Sun, who got off to a sluggish start, has now covered five of six. The Sun had trouble getting the offense going in their first three games where they averaged just 66 points per game. That problem has been rectified as they have now scored 79.8 ppg in their last four. The Fever have topped the 70-point mark in nine of their last 11 at home, as well as allowing 70 ppg at home on the season, and have played to a 13-5 mark to the OVER in their last 18. The last two games between these two clubs have gone OVER this total, and I look for the same here, and will go with the OVER.
INDIANCOWBOY
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Take the New York Liberty -4 over the Detroit Shock
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Both of these two teams have combined for a 4-11 record to start the year as they have both been struggling at the start of the year. The Shock come off their second win of the season over the lowly Monarchs and will hit the road today to the big Apple. I see the Shock lightly having a let down as they are 0-3 on the road and had lost 4 straight covers coming into yesterday's contest with their win at home. The Liberty come off a tough loss at Indiana where they lost 54-63 and now will look to their friendly confines for their third win of the year. This is the same team that beat San Antonio at home by 16 points and won at Atlanta, so I see them having a good opportunity for a bounce-back here. The Liberty are 21-6 ATS following a straight up loss while the Shock are 0-5 ATS against the Eastern Conference of late.
Larry Ness
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ANA / BAL Under 9.5
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The Orioles head west tonight after back-to-back remarkable games against the Red Sox. Baltimore trailed 10-1 in the bottom of the 7th vs the Red Sox on Tuesday, only to come back and win, 11-10. Yesterday afternoon, the Red Sox turned the tables on the Orioles, scoring four runs in the top of the 9th to tie the game at five-all, then winning it 6-5 in 11 innings. The Angels spent the first three days of the week in Arlington but after winning 5-2 on Monday to extend their lead to 2 1/2 games in the AL West, the Angels lost 9-5 (Tues) and 9-7 (Weds) and will return home not only disappointed but also just a half-game up on the Rangers in the division. The Orioles and Angels open a four-game series in Anaheim tonight, the first time these teams have met in 2009. The pitching matchup is Guthrie vs Lackey and while both pitchers have been somewhat disappointing this year, both have been pitching better lately. Lackey owns a 2.86 ERA over his last three starts (24 Ks in 22 innings), while Guthrie has a respectable 3.70 ERA over his last four outings, allowing three ERs or less in SIX of his last seven starts. Lackey is 6-3 with a 3.46 ERA in 10 career starts vs Baltimore and will face an Orioles team which is 11-23 on the road in '09, averaging only 3.88 RPG. Guthrie's made two career starts here in Anaheim, posting a 1-0 mark with a 1.80 ERA. Take the under.
Vernon Croy
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
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We are actually getting great value here tonight with the Cubs who have the superior pitcher on the mound with Ryan Dempster (4-5, 4.09 ERA) and Seth McClung (3-1, 3.55) was hit hard in his only start this season with an ERA of 6.75 while lasting just 4 innings. Dempster has owned the Brewers over his career with a 9-2 record and an ERA of just 3.28 over 15 starts against them and the Cubs are 5-1 in Dempsters last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record. The Cubs have won 4 straight at home and the Brewers are just 0-6 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning record above .600 at home. The Brewers are just 3-10 in their last 14 games against a right hand starter and they are also just 2-5 in their last 7 road games as a dog of +110 to +150. Take the Chicago Cubs as my MLB Free Play for Thursday
John Ryan
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Chicago Cubs as they host the Brewers set to start at 8:05 EST. Cubs starter Dempster is a solid 22-8 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game since 1997. Cubs are a solid 35-10 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in home games on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors over the last 2 seasons. Dempster is also 31-13 (+14.4 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 since 1997. Dempster was roughed up a bit in his last start, but that was just one of those high scoring games. He allowed 5 Er at the CWS and that marked the first time he allowed 3 or more ER in 6 straight starts. So, that is anomaly and based on the AiS projections and gradings he will have an 88% probability of completing 6 or more innings. Should that occur the Cubs have a 92% probability of wining. Dempster has a great slider and change. The slider he throws 27% of the time, 36% of the time to RH batters and allowing a 207 BA on that pitch. He also throws the change 11% of the time, 18% of the time to LH hitters allow a 225 BA on that pitch. When he gets first pitch strike he becomes very hard to hit period. Take the Cubs.
Scott Rickenbach
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Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Over 7
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While it is true that each of these clubs has been involved in plenty of unders recently, it's also true that not many of them have had a posted total of just seven runs. To see this total drop to a seven is offering great value for a play on the over here! With a total of seven, Houston would be 16-5-5 to the over in their last 26 games. As for San Diego, they would be 21-8-5 to the over in their last 34 games with a posted total of seven runs.
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The Astros Wandy Rodriguez has shown a marked road/home disparity throughout his career. He's just 18-26 on the road with a 5.41 ERA that is a full run and a half higher than what he's compiled at home in his career. Kevin Correia of the Padres had a very strong June but he still has a 4.10 ERA at pitcher-friendly Petco Park this season and we're not ready to anoint him as the next Jake Peavy for the Padres just yet! Consider a small play on OVER the total in San Diego on Thursday afternoon.
Michael Cannon,
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Houston at SAN DIEGO -105
Take the Padres for the home win over the Astros.
Houston will start Wandy Rodriguez, who used to be known for pitching much better at home than on the road.
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But even that hasn’t meant much to the left-hander, who is 1-4 with a 5.73 ERA in his last seven starts overall. The opposition is hitting .318 against Rodriguez during that stretch.
San Diego will counter with Kevin Correia, who is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his last five starts.
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I know Houston has had San Diego’s number lately, but I’ll side with Padres here with this pitching matchup.
Take San Diego as they grab the home win.
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2♦ SAN DIEGO
Chris Jordan
Seattle at N.Y. YANKEES -300
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We laying the run line with the Yankees tonight, counting on Sabathia to get it done over Vargas.
I really wanted to put this out as a premier play, but the fact is there a mighty big price on the team that has won seven straight and the ace hurler who the Yanks are hoping will lead them back to the postseason. Plus, with the run line price where it’s at, and still having to lay juice, I have to be smart and release this as an opinion-only play.
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The Yanks have won seven straight, and send to the hill a dominating Sabathia, who is 6-1 with a 2.83 ERA in his last 10 starts while holding foes to a .195 batting average. He is also 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA in his last six starts versus the Mariners.
He’s certainly a better choice than Jason Vargas, who faces the Yankees vaunted lineup for the first time. Going to be a rout tonight!!!
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1♦ N.Y. YANKEES