JIM FEIST
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PITTSBURGH PIRATES / ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Take UNDER
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A pair of very weak offensive teams meet here, ones ranked 19th and 24th in the league in runs scored. The two starting pitchers are having good seasons, too. Charlie Morton of the Pirates doesn't walk anyone and is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA his last three starts. Dan Haren of the Diamondbacks is having a terrific season at 10-5 with a 1.96 ERA. Don't look for much offense, play the Pirates/Diamondbacks Under the total.
Evan Altemus
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Seattle at Detroit
Play: Under 8.5
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Seattle has to face lefty Lucas French today, and he has been very good since entering the rotation. The Mariners haven't faced him yet, so I expect him to have a great deal of success against them. They have been shutdown by every quality pitcher they have faced recently too. Meanwhile, Seattle's Jarrod Wasburn has been the model of consistency lately, dominating every line-up he has faced. He has allowed two earned runs or less in eight out of his last ten starts, while posting a 21/4 strikeout to walk ratio in his last five games. He also posted those numbers against the best line-ups in baseball. He did pitch very poorly against Detroit early last season, but that was when he was dealing with control problems. He is in completely different form now. Detroit's offense has struggled lately, even at home, so Washburn should have no problem handling them. In addition, temperatures are expected to be cooler at game time, as well as rain this morning, which sets up ideal weather conditions for the under.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
Scott Delaney
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We pushed with the Under on the Cardinals/Astros game, tonight we'll score by playing the Rays in Chitown. Be sure to list both pitchers tonight - Scott Kazmir and Mark Buehrle.
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Love this one, and believe it could end up being a sharp move, so get it early as it starts at 2:05 p.m. eastern
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I've been a huge proponent of Buehrle all season, as he's been rock solid all season for the South Siders, and sterling when toeing his own rubber. He comes in after earning his 10th win, walking none and allowing just one run in 7-1/3 innings last Saturday against Baltimore.
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Even further, I'll disclaim that his first start following the 2008 All-Star break, the 30-year-old left-hander is 14-1 with a 2.47 ERA in 20 starts at U.S. Cellular Field.
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So how is it we're siding with Kazmir and the Rays.
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1. There's the due theory, and truth is, Buehrle could be in store for an unexpected whooping.
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2. The revenge theory, as these two hurlers met on April 18, and Kazmir got the worst of it. Tampa's southpaw lost after walking a season-high six and giving up six runs over four innings.
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3. The revenge theory part 2, as Chicago’s victory last night clinched a season series win over Tampa Bay for the eighth time in 11 seasons
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And with tonight's meeting being the teams’ final regular-season clash, the Rays will be looking for a split in this particular series.
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Take the road team here, and don't be surprised if it's uglier than expected.
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2♦ RAYS
Matt Rivers
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For Thursday take the number back with the Pirates.
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There is no doubt that Dan Haren is an absolute bona fide ace/superstar. This kid has really come into his own over the past few seasons and is pretty much as good as they come right now with that sub 2 ERA. I do not expect the Pirates to do much at all with the bats today as Pittsburgh is just not very good and probably used up all of their runs yesterday against the Brewers.
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With all of the above said Charlie Morton has been great ever since the trade from the Braves and has the potential to match Haren a bit today. I'm not sure if he can totally hang with the Arizona righthander but at this solid takeback I'm willing to take the chance.
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Sure the Bucos are going nowhere and have already dealt Nate McLouth and Adam LaRoche but with McCutchen, Jones and a few others Pittsburgh at least has some potential.
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We are going to need a low scoring pitcher's duel for sure as Haren is too good to really get hit but Morton just twirled a gem in that last start against the Giants and I can see him look good here today against the very mediocre at best Diamondbacks.
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One final note, Arizona is coming from Coors and at times playing in the thin air can screw up a hitter in that next series. I'm not saying it's going to definitely happen but it is possible and at this price I'l take my chances.
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1♦ Pirates
Tony Weston
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We’re making it 5 in a row today as we’re taking the Rays on the road at the White Sox.
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After coming off the DL, Scott Kazmir has been pretty filthy for the Tampa Bay Rays.
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So far in his four starts since coming off the DL at the end of June, the Rays have gone 3-1 with Kazmir on the mound and have chalked up wins in each of his last two starts. In fact, in three of his four starts he’s allowed no more than two earned runs and allowed just one earned runs in two games.
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Now he gets a shot at the White Sox, who have lost 2 of their last four games and 7 of their last 14 games.
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Keep in mind, too, the Rays come into this game on a tear. Tampa is 4-2 its last six games and has won 8 of its last 12. Going back a little further, the Rays are 15-8 their last 23 games.
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Kazmir will continue to take care of business tonight as he leads the Rays to another victory. Take Tampa on the road in this one.
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3♦ RAYS
Scott Spreitzer
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Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers
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Detroit's bats may have been kept in check a few times, lately, but this team rattles southpaws at home. Detroit enters today's game with a perfect 5-0 mark in home day games against lefthanders, scoring 6.2 rpg. In fact, they're 12-1 against lefties at home, overall, scoring an average of 6.69 rpg. This is not welcomed news for Jarod Washburn, who has truly taken his lumps against the Tigers. He's pitched poorly against them no matter the venue, but especially in seven starts at Comerica, where he's been tagged for a 6.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .284 BAA. Washburn also isn't likely to get much offensive help in this one. His Mariners plate less than four rpg in road day games against lefties. Look for "Cool Hand" Luke French to continue to throw well as management begins to give him more innings. I'm playing the Tigers on Thursday afternoon.
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Play on: Detroit
MTi Sports
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Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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The Mariners are 0-10 since May 02, 2009 after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and the Tigers are 8-0 since April 22, 2009 after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series. Consider Detroit.
BIG AL
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With Scott Kazmir inconsistent for the Rays and Mark Buehrle having a fine season for the White Sox, playing Chicago as small home chalk vs. Tampa Bay is an easy decision.
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Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Chicago White Sox at home over the Tampa Bay Rays in the finale of this four-game series.
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Scott KazmirMark Buehrle relished his selection this season to his third All-Star game in his illustrious 10-year career. Buehrle made the trip to St. Louis and pitched a perfect inning, a stark contrast to his last start before the Midsummer Classic which was easily Buehrle's worst start of the season as the veteran lefthander gave up eight earned runs in just over three innings in Minneapolis last Sunday.
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Every great pitcher throws in a clunker now and then and like the veteran that Buehrle is, he came back strong in his next start after the break and pitched 7.1 near-perfect innings to shut down Baltimore and earn his 10th win of the season.
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After four straight seasons of winning records and sub-4.00 ERAs, both of those marks are in jeopardy this year for Tampa's veteran lefthander Scott Kazmir. Right now Kazmir is 4-5 with a 6.62 ERA and you just don't know what you're going to get when he steps out on the mound these days. Sometimes he looks like his old self, but more often than not, he gets into trouble early in the game, like in the three starts out of the last six that Kazmir has given up seven earned runs.
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Perhaps if Kazmir was having a season like he had from 2005 through 2008, the Rays would be in first place in the AL East right now, instead of third place and 5.5 games back. Take the White Sox.
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Pick: White Sox -108
Spartan
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Mariners at Tigers
Play: Under 8.5
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Generous number in my view considering the opposing pitchers Washburn and the youngster Lucas French. Washburn sports an impressive 2.87 and although it's still early for him French has been solid at 1-0, 1.89. Since getting called to the bigs French has only allowed four earned runs in 16 innings of work. On the other side Washburn has allowed only a pair of earned run to score in a stretch covering a shade over 23 innings of work. You obviously never know for sure guys but this baby is looking under the 8.5 total to me.
Mikey Sports
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Oakland @ NY Yankees
Play: NY Yankees
R&R Totals
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San Francisco @ Atlanta
Play: UNDER
Pure Lock
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ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON
PLAY: ST LOUIS
Karl Garrett
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Oakland at NY YANKEES
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Now an 8-2 comp play run from the G-Man, as San Francisco and Atlanta hold UNDER the posted total last night.
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For Thursday, it is a no-brainer, as I am taking the Yankees on the RUN LINE to dispose of the A's in this make-up game.
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Oakland did put a hurting on Minnesota yesterday afternoon, but that was in the bay area, and now 3,000 miles later they must tangle with the red-hot Yankees who have won ALL 6 since the All-Star break, the last pair coming by 2-runs.
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New York won both earlier series meetings against Oakland by 2-runs, and they have won 6 in a row overall against the A's, with 4 of the 6 wins coming by 2 runs or more.
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CC Sabathia is 2-1 his last 3 starts with a 2.61 ERA, while his counterpart Vin Mazzaro is on an 0-3 slide with an ERA over 7.
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The Yankees have built a 2-game lead in the AL West, and they will not be stopped by the A's in this write-in game tonight.
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G-Man on New York on the RUN LINE.
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3♦ NY YANKEES -1 1/2
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
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Yankees starter C.C. Sabathia is known to have his troubles against his hometown team Oakland throughout his career. His career ERA against them is a 6.26 ERA in 16 starts. New York has gone OVER in 12 of 16 matchups against the AL West this season. Oakland starter Vin Mazzaro allowed eight runs in three innings of work in his last start and will be facing New York for the first time in his career. Go with the OVER.
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Play on: OVER
Tommy Gill
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White Sox -110 for 3 units
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The White Sox are 18-10 against left handed starters this season and currently on a 9-1 run, while the Rays are 3 games under .500 against lefty starters. The pitching matchup today is Kazmir (4-5 6.62 ERA) vs. Buehrle (10-3 3.52 ERA). Buehrle at home this season is 6-1 with a 2.81 ERA and already beating the Rays once this season in that same matchup against Kazmir 8-3. Kazmir in that game gave up 6 runs in 4 innings pitched while Buehrle when 6.2 giving up 3 ER. Buehrle has had 5 out of 6 quality starts with his only bad outing against the Twins in Minnesota. With the White Sox being 5-2 against the Rays this season I believe they are in good position today against the Rays. The Rays are 8-17 in Chicago the last few seasons. The White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 home games and are 6-1 in Buehrle last 7 starts overall. Buehrle is 21-7 last 28 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Rays have struggled against left handed starter while the White Sox are on a great run against them and I see them winning this game today with no problem.
Ben Burns
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St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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I've gone 3-0 with the Nationals in their last six games, backing them in each of their last two games (both wins over the Mets) as well as successfully playing them on the run-line in a game they lost by one run. I expect their current "run" to come to an end this evening though.
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Washington's last two victories came against a banged-up sub-500 Mets team. Tonight, the Nats will be stepping up in class though, as they'll take on the Central Division leading Cardinals. They'll also be facing Adam Wainwright, a pitcher with 10 wins on the season and a 1.60 ERA over his last five starts.
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The Nats likely would have had a better shot at competing if scheduled starter Zimmerman was able to go. However, he's been scratched and Collin Balester will take his place. You may recall that Balester went just 3-7 with a poor 5.51 ERA in 15 starts for Washington last year. This season, he's been pitching at Triple-A and has gone just 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA in 19 starts for Syracuse.
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Wainwright has delivered a "quality start" in all three of his career starts vs. Washington, recording a 2.86 ERA. He hasn't faced the Nats this season and only did once last year. In that game, he allowed two runs over eight complete innings. Including that victory, the Cards have won seven of the last nine in this series. Consider St. Louis.
Matt Fargo
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Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees -1.5
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The Yankees are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now as they have won six straight games since the all-Star break and have taken a two-game lead over the Red Sox in the American League East. Pitching has been the key during this run as they have allowed just 2.3 rpg over this six-game stretch and I see that continuing tonight. Oakland has had two huge games on offense with 14 and 16 runs scored in two of their last three games but it will not repeat here. The A's are 18-28 on the road and the offense is hitting only .248 while scoring only 3.9 rpg which is third worst in all of baseball. Traveling to the east coast will not help matters. C.C. Sabathia has been pitching very well and because of that, along with just him name alone, he is a monster favorite tonight. Playing the runline is the way to handle this situation. He does a couple of hiccups in his last few outings but he has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last six starts to lower his ERA to 3.66 on the year. He will be looking to make amends for one of his poorer outings on the year when he allowed six earned runs in 6.2 innings against Oakland in Yankee Stadium back on April 22nd. He squares off against Vic Mazzaro who has been decent but nothing close to consistent. He started the season with four straight quality starts but he has now gone five consecutive starts without registering one. After Oakland won his first two starts this season, it has gone 0-7 since then with only one of those losses coming by one run. The A's are 0-4 in his last four road starts, losing by an average of 3.3 rpg. New York stays hot as it wins another game going away.
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3* New York Yankees -1.5 Runs