Tony George
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LA Angels -151
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Cannot ignore the hitting by LA in this game, batting a whopping .326 as a team against right handers, which is the case tonight, as well as batting .306 against southpaws, overall as a team in the last 10 games. Throw in the fact one of the best hurlers Jered Weaver is on the hill tonight at 10-3 on the year, and he has a 3.41 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the year to date, and you have the makings of a strong home team, hitting on all cylinders right now with an ace out of the starting rotation leading the way. Tough to make a case for Scott Baker for the Twins who has an ERA approaching 6 for the season and is just 1 win over .500 as a starter. Looking at recent history the bullpen for Minnesota is weak at best and allow plenty of runners in scoring position with a 5.68 ERA on the season. Adding fuel to the fire tonight is the fact that LA is avenging a 3 game sweep on the road at the hands of the Twins earlier this season, so you know they will have their ears pinned back for this one, and Minnesota is off a series loss at Oakland and are playing their 7th straight road game tonight as well.
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Play 1 Unit on the LA Angels tonight.
Complimentary Selection - Jeff Benton
I’m now on an 11-5 run (66%) with my free-play releases –
including 4-1 ( 80%) over the past five days –
(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)
5♦ ARIZONA (-1 1/2 runs)
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
297 - 194 run 60 % 45-23 run here 65%
Thurs ANGELS
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TRENDS SAY free sports picks from Undefeated77
Smoking HOT 8-2 run ( 80% )
TRENDS SAY pick N.Y. Yankees money line parlay with Phillies
TRENDS SAY pick Chicago White Sox game UNDER
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Oakland A's @ New York Yankees
(968) New York Yankees -1.5
2009 Free Selections Record 107-88 (54.9%)
THE SPREAD
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays, 12:37PM ET
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, 7:05PM ET
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Pick: Seattle
St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, 7:05PM ET
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of St. Louis's last 23 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games
Pick: Washington
Wunderdog
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San Francisco at Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -170
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This is becoming a recurring theme, but it is because the Giants have dictated a distinct pattern, both favorable and unfavorable. The Giants have been under the radar and have emerged as a viable playoff team behind their 31-15 home mark, and their top of the rotation pitchers in Cain, and Lincecum. That part of the pattern has put plenty into the win column and positioned them where they are now. There is however, another well defined pattern on the negative side. The Giants have struggled on the road this season. When they do battle without either Lincecum or Cain on the hill, they have posted just five wins on the road all season long. The Braves have a very hot hand right now, especially playing at home where they are now 10-1 in their last 11 games. I'm riding with the Braves in this one.
DAVE MALINSKY
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Athletics @ Yankees
PICK: Yankees (RL)
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This one will not come as a surprise. We have been able to get in play against Vin Mazzaro and that awful Oakland defense repeatedly in the month of July, taking advantage of how the markets over-reacted to those back-to-back shutouts that he opened his Major League career with. It has been an 0-8 Oakland run with him on the mound since then, a span in which the A’s have been out-scored by 23 runs, with seven of the defeats coming by multiple tallies. We expect more of the same tonight.
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Here is the crux – Mazzaro does not have the stuff to get the ball past Major League bats yet, and when you have the worst defense in the A.L. behind you (only the hapless Nationals keep the Oakland gloves from rating dead last overall) allowing contact creates headaches. In an 0-3/7.07 July Mazzaro has only five strikeouts in 14 innings, and note that there were 16 runs allowed in those innings, but five unearned. That will not show against him in the pitching forms but it is a reality, and that defense can open the door for more easy New York runs here. Not that the Yankees need all that much help these days.
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Meanwhile this is also a “pride” game for C. C. Sabathia, who had some of his best stuff of the season in working seven shutout innings vs. the Tigers in his last outing, and could be an excellent second-half value. Sabathia is from the Bay area, and suffered an embarrassment back in April when facing Oakland for the first time in pin stripes, allowing six earned runs in 6.2 frames. We can expect his current form and focus to completely turn that around, and note that while ordinarily we are not enamored by Mariano Rivera having worked back-to-back games, note that he only needed 16 pitches to get those two saves, and in going from an afternoon to an evening setting should not be assigned with a fatigue rating for this one.
LT Profits
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Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
The Cleveland Indians have lost each of their last five games not started by Cliff Lee by at least two runs, and we look for that pattern to continue today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, setting up a nice Run Line play.
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Young Marc Rzepczynski has looked very poised in his brief Major League career so far, as the southpaw is a perfec6 three for three in Quality Starts wile posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 18 innings. He also has 16 strikeouts, although his 11 walks can be improved upon. We look for him to do just that vs. a free-swinging Indians lineup that is averaging only 3.50 runs over the last 10 games.
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Meanwhile, David Huff has been lit up in his 12 starts for the Tribe to the tune of a whopping 6.60 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 61.1 innings. Huff has just one Quality Start in his last four outings, and he has been horrific on the road all year, where he owns a disgusting 8.38 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. The Indians may still be high on this young left-hander, but we feel he will continue to go through some growing pains this season.
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We look for another multiple-run Cleveland loss in this early afternoon matinee north of the border.
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Pick: Blue Jays -1.5
Mike Rose
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Montreal Alouettes -14
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The Alouettes have been the kings of CFL wagering this season, as they rank first in every category, both offensively and defensively. They are the only team in the CFL to score at least 40 points in every game this season, and their average margin of victory is almost four touchdowns. Last week, they rolled into Mosaic Stadium and pounded the Roughriders 43-10. QB Anthony Calvillo tied Ron Lancaster for the third most touchdown passes in CFL history with his two scores against Saskatchewan. The star of the game was RB Avon Cobourne, who bulled through the Riders hapless defence for 146 yards and two touchdowns. The Als have racked up at least 400 yards of total offence in all three of their games, and it seems impossible to stop the combination of Calvillos passing attack and Cobournes rushing threat.
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The Tabbies may be facing a tough task this week, but two weeks ago they were two touchdown underdogs in CFL betting at BC Place, only to come away with an impressive victory. Last week, Hamilton improved to 2-1 by beating Winnipeg 25-13 in a sloppy game. QB Quinton Porter threw for 188 yards in the first half, but was benched after only leading the Ti-Cats to two field goals. Former Bomber, Kevin Glenn came in and threw for 146 yards and two scores in the second half. Though Glenn provided a nice spark off the bench, Hamilton knows that its hopes this season rest on the right arm of Porter, and he should get the nod this week as the signal-caller. Since conceding 20 points in the opening quarter of the season against Toronto, the Tabbies have held their opponents to just 51 points. That D hasnt seen a test this difficult this season, though.
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No, this isnt the same old Hamilton team that has been the laughing stock of the CFL for the majority of the last decade, but it still isnt a team that is ready to compete week in and week out with the brass of the CFL. Lay the two tuddies in this game and hope that the Alouettes dont have a hangover from a massive win in Regina last week.
Freddy Wills
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Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
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I like this play a lot it will be a 2 Dime Free Play rather than a 1 Dime. Today we have our Hot pitcher in Jarrod Washburn going for the Mariners, but that does not bother me at all. A quick run down of Washburn 3-0 0.66WHIP and 0.79ERA in his last three starts. Pretty impressive and Washburn has been quite consistent this year for the most part, but on the road he has had these bumps where he has allowed 4 or 6 ER in 4 of his last 7 road starts. I think he has one of those games against a lineup that hits lefties extremely well and who Washburn has struggled against in the past. His last 2 road starts here he has 9IP and 15ER. So enough on Washburn now onto his opponent Luke French. French has 3 starts, which really is not much to go on, but I'm looking at the quality of opponents he has faced which are the Twins in their dome, and the Yankees @ hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. French has been nothing, but solid and in his only home start he pitched his best game going 6.1 IP giving up 6H and 1ER. Seatle struggles to get runs off LHP 4.43 R/9 on the road which is nothing compared to the Tigers who are scoring 8.17 R/9 vs. LHP at home. The Tigers continue to hit lefties and with Magglio Ordonez who I think is ready to turn the corner they will go on a hot streak. Magglio who has struggled all year is just waiting for Carlos Guillen to be healthy and he's going to get hot. Magglio went 2-3 HR and 4RBI in game 1 of this series. Tigers also have the edge when you look at the important trends here. The Mariners are 17-36 in their L53 games when Washburn is coming off a quality start. To me he's not one to be known to throw back to back quality starts. The Mariners are 1-7 in Washburn's L8 starts as an under dog. Again Vegas is usually right when they pick him as an under dog. The Tigers success against LHP has been there all season they are 14-2 in their L16 overall vs. LH starters.
Yankee Capper
Detroit Tigers -120
Pittsburgh Pirates +210
Twins/Angels Under 8.5
Phillies-RL -135
Mr. Vegas Wins
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Twins at Royal
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Think the Angels have depth? They finished off a three-game sweep of Kansas City and are 9-1 since Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero went on the disabled list. They have an ace going here in Jered Weaver, 10 wins and a 3.48 ERA. He faces a tired Twins team on a long West Coast trip. It has been a difficult trip, getting beat 16-1 at Oakland plus blowing a 10-run lead in a 14-13. This pitching staff is beat up and the team looks tired.
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Play the Angels.
Nite Owl Sports
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Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics
Pick: 3 units Washington Mystics -5.5
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This is the third game between these two TY, with the home team victorious both and Wash victorious by 9 (and covering ATS) at home over Chi. And while Wash is admittedly not that great as a home fave, they do have a victorious (3-2) ATS record TY as home faves of 4> vs < .500 teams like Chicago, with an average MOV of 5.5 points in those five games. Moreover, Wash is 5-1 ATS TY after a SU loss (the role they are in for this game), including 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as a home fave (after a SU loss).
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Contrast to Chicago, which has a number of negatives for this game, starting with their crappy 2-7 ATS record as road dogs, with an average MOL (margin of loss) of 11.5 points in those nine games. But it gets even worse for them when they are playing the second game of back to backs, as they are tonite, a role in which they are 0-2 TY, with one of those two losses being their nine point loss at Wash, in which they were up at HT but ran out of gas in the second half, getting outscored by 19 in their come from ahead loss. The other back to back road loss was a 20 point "train wreck" at Phx, where the Sky trailed 20-2 halfway thru the first quarter. And after blowing a lead after 3Q in their game yesterday at home vs a very beatable NY team to lose that game by 7, and with the All Star break ahead, we don't expect chicago's girls to be exactly "sky high" for this one, especially if they get down early like they did at Phx.
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So take the Mystics and lay up to six points for 3 units as your best shot to make some WNBA money on the league's final day of play before their All Star break.
ROCKETMAN
Minnesota @ LA Angels
Play: LA Angels
Minnesota comes in with a 48-47 overall record this year while LA Angels are now 55-38 on the season. LA Angels are 8-2 this year when playing on Thursday. Angels are going for their 6th straight win tonight. Scott Baker has a 5.10 ERA overall this year. Jered Weaver is 10-3 with a 3.48 ERA overall this year, 7-1 with a 2.25 ERA at home and 2-0 his last 3 starts. LA Angels are 7-3 at home vs Minnesota last 3 years. Baker is 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA overall vs LA Angels since 1997. Weaver is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA overall vs Minnesota since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!
Vernon Croy
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the White Sox have the superior pitcher on the mound today with Mark Buehrle (10-3, 3.52 ERA). Buehrle has pitched solid at home this season with an ERA of just 2.81 over 11 starts and he allowed just 1 earned run in his last outing over 7.3 innings while walking no batters. Buehrle is 14-1 with a 2.47 ERA in his last 20 starts at home dating back to the 1st game after the 2008 All Star game. Scott Kazmir (4-5, 6.62) walked 6 batters and left the game after just 4 innings in his last start against the White Sox while giving up 2 homeruns back on June.18 and I look for the White Sox to hit him hard this afternoon. The Rays are just 1-6 in Kazmir's last 7 starts after a quality start in his last outing and the White Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games against a lefty starter. Take the Chicago White Sox as my MLB Free Play for Thursday afternoon.
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Arizona as they play host the Pirates set to start at 10:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 64-5 for an incredible 93% winners since 2003. This system has already gone a perfect 6-0 this season. Play against all dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 and is a cold hitting team batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting a WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. Pittsburgh is not in a good role for this game either noting they are just 13-42 (-23.2 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons; 3-14 (-10.7 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. Dan Haren gave up just 1 ER in his last outing at St. Louis. He is a remarkable 23-6 (+15.9 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons He has posted a 0.78 ERA over his last 3 starts and has posted a 1.96 ERA in 20 starts this season. Take Arizona.
Pure Profets
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San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
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The Philadelphia Phillies' longest winning streak in 18 years may be over, but the 10-game run was enough to give them a nice cushion atop the NL East. Philadelphia (53-39) will try to shake off its first loss in more than two weeks Thursday night when it welcomes in the last-place Padres for the makeup of an April rainout. A game against the Padres is a good way to get another winning streak started.
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The fighting Phillies have averaged 5.7 runs during the streak while allowing just 2.6 runs to their opponents. Holding the Padres (37-58) off the scoreboard hasn't been a challenge for anyone lately. San Diego has scored more than three runs just once in its last 13 games, and Wednesday was shut out for the ninth time.
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Cole Hamels (5-5, 4.72 ERA) will get the start Thursday for Philadelphia. Hamels is not having as successful a year as last year but has been pretty good as of late. The left-hander gave up one run and four hits over five innings in a rain-shortened outing Friday at Florida.
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Kevin Correia (6-7, 4.34) will get the ball for San Diego. He is actually one of their better pitchers but has not had much success against the Phillies giving up four runs and 10 hits over 4 1/3 innings - including homers to Howard and Chase Utley - in a 5-3 loss to the Phillies back on June 1.
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Here are some Pure Profets trends to sway your decision:
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-Padres are 15-36 in their last 51 overall.
-Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
-Padres are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. National League East.
-Phillies are 11-1 in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
-Phillies are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
-Phillies are 23-5 in Hamels' last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
-Padres are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.
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With all this going for them we feel very confident that the Phillies will win and win big. The straight money line on the game is Phillies -275, but if we give up 1 1/2 runs we can get the line down to Phillies -120. That gets us some good value on the Phillies.
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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES - 1 1/2