Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 22,2010

Cajun Sports

LA Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers

The Rangers host the Angels for a four-game weekend set with the first game set for Thursday night at 8:05PM EST. Both teams enter tonight’s game coming off road trips, with the Angels coming off a loss to the Yankees yesterday while the Rangers lost in the Motor City to the Tigers. Los Angeles gave up ten runs in each of the two games they played against the Yankees in New York during that mini-series. They will send Jered Weaver to the bump in hopes he can stop the bleeding. Weaver is 1-2 his last three outings with a 5.12 ERA. He does have a win over this Rangers team it came in LA back on July 1st pitching 7 innings giving up no runs in a 2 to 1 victory. Texas is 15-4 (+13.6 Units) versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better and 13-4 (+10.2 Units) versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or fewer hits per start this season. Texas is 31-19 at home this season scoring 5.8 runs per game with a batting average of .295 and an OBP of .359. The Rangers will send Cliff Lee to the hill with his 8-4 record and ERA of 2.59 on the year. Lee is 6-3 versus LA with an ERA of 3.18 over his career and 15-2 (+11.7 Units) as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. A check of the database reveals a powerful league-wide system that tells us to Play AGAINST MLB road puppies in this line range with an OBP of .320 or less facing a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.350 or better, with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season. Playing against these road underdogs has produced a record of 43-9 the last five seasons for 82 percent winners and a profit of over 30 units. Lay the chalk with the host as the Rangers roll past the Halos on Thursday night.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Texas Rangers 5 Los Angeles Angels 1

Steve Janus

Cardinals/Phillies Under 7

I love the UNDER in the Cardinals and Phillies game on Thursday. The Phillies send Cole Hamels to the mound where he has been lights out of late with a 1.66 ERA in his last three starts. The Cardinals send ace Adam Wainwright to the mound and he has been even better in his last three starts with a 0.39 ERA. If this isn't enough reason to just love the UNDER in this game here are a few power systems that have its back.

On the season alone the Cardinals have went under the total at a 53 times compared to just 36 times where they have went over. The Cardinals are a perfect 9-0 going UNDER the total this season after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. No reason to think hard about this one. Bet the UNDER!

SEAN MURPHY

Blue Jays @ Tigers
PICK: Over 7.5

After scoring 13 runs on Tuesday night, the Blue Jays had a much tougher time at the plate on Wednesday, dropping a 5-2 decision against Zack Greinke and the Kansas City Royals. They'll face another elite pitcher on Thursday afternoon, but this time around, I expect them to have a little more success.

The Tigers scored only four runs against Texas last night, but that was enough to secure a comfortable victory. Their offense has been held down over the last two nights, but I believe they're in position to bust out on a hot afternoon at Comerica Park in Detroit.

Ricky Romero will get the call for the visiting Jays. He's coming off an outstanding start in which he allowed five hits and no earned runs over seven innings of work. But keep in mind, his opponent was the lowly Baltimore Orioles. Prior to that outing, Romero had been rocked in back-to-back starts, allowing 12 hits and 13 earned runs over just five innings pitched against the Yankees and Red Sox.

Romero made two starts against the Tigers last season, and didn't fare particularly well, allowing 17 hits and six earned runs over 12 innings. Both of those games surpassed today's posted total, reaching eight and nine total runs.

The Tigers will counter with their ace, Justin Verlander. He hasn't exactly looked like an ace lately, allowing 14 hits and five earned runs while issuing seven walks over his last two starts, covering a span of 11 1/3 innings pitched.

Verlander has made three career starts against the Blue Jays, and has been tagged for at least five earned runs each time out. In fact, the Jays have collected 25 hits and 19 earned runs in 15 innings against Verlander dating back to the start of the 2008 season. Obviously some of the names and faces in the Jays lineup have changed, but this is still a fairly potent club.

We're able to play this one at a relatively low number thanks to the reputation that both pitchers carry to the mound. However, both lineups are capable of big innings, and neither starter is in top form right now. The ball has been flying at Comerica Park this season, particularly on hot afternoons such as this one. Take the over.

BIG AL

San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: San Francisco Giants

Things haven't gone as planned for Giants righthander Matt Cain. After a 14-8 record and 2.89 ERA in 2009, the Giants had high hopes for Cain who at age 25 coming into this season was just entering his prime. But at just 7-8 going into tonight, Cain already has equaled his loss total from last season and his 3.30 ERA, while not bad, is almost a half-run higher than last season. The good news is that Cain got back on the winning track in his last start for the first time since June 13 when he beat the Mets, surrendering just two earned runs on four hits in seven innings. The other good news is that he faces the D-Backs tonight, a team which he not only beat back on May 28, but he threw a complete game one-hitter, striking out nine without a single walk, making that start his best of the season by far. Tonight he will face the unlikeliest of starters with a regular job this season in righthander Rodrigo Lopez. You have to give Lopez credit for coming back from complete obscurity to land a starting job with the Diamondbacks in 2010. His 5-8 record and 4.62 ERA is far from the worst in the league, but it's also not the kind of numbers you would want to hang your franchise on. Heading into this series, the Giants are 7-2 in the last nine meetings. Take the Giants.

JIM FEIST

TEXAS RANGERS vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS
PLAY: TEXAS RANGERS

Thursday is one of those rare days in baseball where there are a lot of big favorites. Therefore, I decided to go with a miDSIze favorite and a team and pitcher I really like. That's why I'm taking the Texas Rangers with Cliff Lee. The Rangers lost to Detroit on Wednesday, 4-1, snapping the Tigers longest losing streak of the season. The loss snapped a three game winning streak by the Rangers. This turns out to be a very important series for the 2nd place Angels as they trail the Rangers by five games. Losing this series will just push them further back behind the Rangers in the AL West. Lee is 8-4 this season with a 2.59 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Rangers are still looking to win their first game with Lee on the mound since the southpaw came over from Seattle. Lee ranks first in the AL in ERA, first in WHIP and first in complete games (6). Lee has gone the distance in five of his last six outings. Jered Weaver will oppose for the Angels. Weaver is 9-5 this year with a 3.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Weaver leads the AL in strikeouts (142) and is fourth in WHIP (1.07). Still, Weaver has had a rough patch the last three games, going 1-2 and allowing 11 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. I think this is the game Lee finally wins one for his new club and while I don't like laying over 1.40 to 1.50 with any team, I'll take a small shot here on Thursday with the Rangers.

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants have M. Cain going tonight and he has better overall numbers than that of his counterpart .R.Lopez. The Giants have fared well vs losing teams since the break winning 6 of 7 times. They are also a stellar 4-1 as a road favorite in this range. Arizona is just 5-10 as a home dog in this range. Where the big advantage comes in is that Diamondbacks starter Lopez has an 8.16 career era vs the Giants. he has allowed 9 runs in 9 innings with 18 hits. Look for the Giants to get game one tonight.

Brad Diamond Sports
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Philadelphia over St. Louis
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The Phillies continue to suffer on this road trip, but have their ace lefty hitting the bump this Thursday in Cole Hamels. Behind Hamels the Philadelphia has won 5 of 7 against the hot Redbirds. So, look for a change of venue here as the visitor takes the get away in easy fashion.

Red Dog Sports

Toronto at Detroit
Play: Over 7.5
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Last yeat in Detroit these two played games reaching 11, 9, 14 and 10 runs. Toronto leads the league in home runs and should be able to score off of Justin Verlander, who was involved in a 6-5 game last year in Detroit that totaled 11 runs.
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Ricky Romero has an ERA of 9.75 in his last 3 and Toronto has 8 overs, 3 unders and 2 pushes in their last 11 while the Tigers have 6 overs, 2 unders and a push in its last 9 at home. Look for 8 or more to be scored. Play over 7.5 on Thursday afternoon!

MTi Sports

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

The Braves are 7-0 as a home favorite vs a team that has a better record and 12-0 when Tim Hudson starts as a favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits and they lost in his previous start. The Padres are 1-11 as a road dog of more than 140 when they are off a win in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent?s starter. Consider Atlanta.

Matt Fargo

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates bats have come alive of late and this is when we need to continue to ride them. Pittsburgh has scored nine runs or more in four of its last five games and to no surprise, it won all four of those games. The thing about it is that it came against some solid starting pitchers for the most part so I do not see a roadblock in the way tonight. Milwaukee is now 3-4 on this current roadtrip to drop to 23-27 away from home and 10 games under .500 overall. The offense has been hit or miss but the recent pitching has been atrocious as the Brewers have allowed 11 runs or more in three of their last four games and the starting pitching ERA is a horrid 7.32 over the last 10 games. The starting pitching matchup is controlling this number but it is too aggressive. Ross Ohlendorf has pitched much better than what his 1-7 record indicates. He had tossed three straight quality starts before his last outing against Houston where he went just 1.1 innings, The good news is that he is rested as he tossed only 46 pitches. The Pirates are 0-6 in his six road starts but 4-4 in his eight home starts where he has been much more effective. The Brewers go with one of their aces in Yovani Gallardo but I do not like the spot he is in. He is coming off the disabled list with a strained left oblique and while rest is helpful in most cases, I’m not so sure here with that type of injury. Despite a 2.58 ERA this season, Milwaukee is only 9-9 in his 18 starts including 4-5 on the road where his ERA is 2.31 but he ahas a WHIP of 1.38 which is pretty average. Pittsburgh is 23-18 over the last over the last two years as a home underdog between +125 and +175 and that is a very solid record. Also, the Pirates are 7-2 in Ohlendorf’s last nine starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Meanwhile the Brewers are 2-7 in their last nine games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Pittsburgh Pirates

Tom Freese

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: San Francisco Giants

San Francisco starter Matt Cain is off a strong start in his last outing allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings of work. The Giants are 11-3 their last 14 games. San Francisco 9-4 in game one of a series and they are 8-2 their last 10 road games. The Giants are 8-1 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Arizona starter Rodrigo Lopez has lost 2 of his last 3 starts. The Diamondbacks are 14-32 their last 46 games as home underdogs and they are 3-7 in the last 10 starts made by Lopez. The Snakes are 17-40 their last 57 games vs. NL West teams.

Scott Spreitzer
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Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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I'm playing the Angels on Thursday. LAA was a bit shocked when Cliff Lee ended up in a Texas uniform a few weeks ago. But so far, the Rangers are 5-4 since the July 10 trade...and 0-2 with Lee on the mound. The southpaw was smacked all over the park in his Ranger debut by the lowly Baltimore Orioles. After the game, the O's said they just took the approach of "swing away" since Lee is always around the plate. I suspect teams will follow suit, especially in this venue. Lee owns a horrible 7.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .302 BAA in eight lifetime starts at Rangers Ballpark. Lefties can get hit hard in this joint and I suspect the Angels, who seem to be finding their bats, will continue Lee's disappointing start in Arlington. I expect the Angels to win a game they really need, trailing the Rangers by five games in the AL West. Look for Jered Weaver to make up for a poor start here earlier this season with a strong effort on Thursday. I'm playing the underdog Angels.

BEN BURNS

San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves
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The Padres won in extra innings yesterday. The Braves figure to have the advantage for this afternoon's finale though.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Braves are still an extremely impressive 33-13 here at Atlanta. Today, they send Tim Hudson to the mound and he's been very solid.
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Hudson checks in with a 2.60 ERA and 1.066 WHIP at home and a 2.60 ERA and 1.148 WHIP overall. He's got a 3.74 ERA and 1.061 WHIP his last three starts.

Richard also has fairly solid numbers. He's got a 3.53 ERA and 1.358 WHIP on the season. However, they climb to 3.71 and 1.49 on the road, meaning he's been giving up quite a few baserunners, away from Petco.
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Also, Richard has struggled lately. Over his last three starts, he's got a 8.00 ERA and 1.833 WHIP, allowing five or more runs in each of those starts.

Additionally, note that Hudson is 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA when pitching during the afternoon. Richard has a 4.03 ERA in his six daytime starts.
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Perhaps most importantly, Richard has really struggled against the Braves while Hudson has dominated the Padres.
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Richard is 0-2 with an awful 10.57 ERA and 2.35 WHIP vs. the Braves. Hudson, on the other hand, is a perfect 4-0 vs. the Padres, with his teams going 6-1. Consider laying the wood.

John Ryan
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Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Play: Kansas City Royals
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3* graded play on KC as they take on the NYY set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows that KC does have a chance to win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 68-60 and has made a whopping 49.5 units exploiting false favorites since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80%. Sabathia is not in a good spot noting they are 11-18 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in home games in July games since 1997. Yankees are not playing well and batting just .259 in 35 games against LH starters and 251 over the past 7 games. The bullpen is even worse posting a 6.20 ERA over the past 7 games and 5.33 ERA in 45 home games. Take KC.