Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on New York Yankees -1.5 -149
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I'll take the Yankees on the run line at home tonight with Sabathia on the hill. The Yanks have won his last 9 starts, and 7 of those have come by 2 or more runs. Plus, Sabathia is 14-0 on the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, and the Yankees are winning in this situation by an average score of 7.9 to 2.1. In addition, the Royals are only 5-25 in their last 30 meetings with the Yankees in New York. The Yankees have the edge on the hill and at the plate tonight. Take New York on the run line.
EZWINNERS
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Boston Red Sox -162
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The Red Sox starting pitcher John Lackey has been very inconsistent for Boston this season, but Seattle's starting pitcher Ryan Rowland-Smith has been consistently bad all season. Rowland-Smith is just 1-9 this season with an ERA of 6.18. In his last two starts, Rowland-Smith has lasted just 7 1/3 innings while allowing nine earned runs on fourteen hits. This could very well be one of his last starts as there is a very good chance Eric Bedard takes his spot in the rotation once he is healthy. Rowland-Smith only has one quality start all season which is not a good thing when you pitch for a team that doesn't score many runs. John Lackey allowed just two runs on seven hits over seven innings Saturday in a no decision as Boston beat the Angels in extra innings and I expect a solid start from him in this game. The Mariners are only 3-14 in Rowland-Smiths last seventeen starts and the Red Sox have won ten out of the last fourteen opening games of a series. Play on Boston.
Denver Money
SFG (-130) vs ARI
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San Fransisco Giants will send Matt Cain to the hill tonight looking to get his 8th win of the season. Although Cain has gone 1-4 in his last 6 games with 1 no decision, he hasn't looked terrible. I do expect Cain to return to better form tonight as he faces the Diamondbacks in Arizona tonight. In his last start against the Diamondbacks back on 5/28 Cain went the distance in a 1 hit shutout.
Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. The Giants have also won 8 of their last 10 road games. San Fransisco is 9-4 in their last 13 during game 1 of a series and 19-12 in game 1 of a series on the season and 11-4 in game 1 after a loss. The Diamondbacks are 16-15 in game 1 of a series and 5-4 after a win.
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Diamondbacks will have Rodrigo Lopez on the mound tonight looking for his 6th win on the season. In his only other start against the Giants Lopez lasted 5 innings giving up 6 runs on 10 hits with 1 strikeout. Although his team did come back and get the victory Lopez got the ND on the game. Lopez is 3-4 at home this season with a 4.95 ERA with 43 runs in 63.2 innings pitched.
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I am going to back the Giants tonight as my GOW as I think they will get the job done with Cain on the hill tonight.
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3* Game of the Week: San Fransisco Giants -130
SPORTS WAGERS
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CINCINNATI –1½ +1.21 over Washington
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For Livan Hernandez, there is a point where negative RAR (runs above replacement) adds up enough to cancel out the rest of your career and create a statistical black hole. Even if you just stare at his numbers, you risk getting pulled into the abyss. Why do metrics matter?
(Month) ERA xERA
===== ==== ====
April 0.87 4.79
May 3.25 4.80
June 5.12 5.25
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This is the same pitcher throughout the year when looking at his "skills" compared to his "statistics". Livan also starts out hot every April before the opposition learns his latest "tricks." Then he reverts to his previously established level - the one well below mediocrity. Hernandez, like Jon Garland, is one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and at this park he could and likely will get destroyed. His last five starts came against the O’s, Mets, Padres, Giants and Marlins and four of those five teams rank near the bottom of every offensive category over the last month. Meanwhile, Edinson Volquez came off the DL and he looked like he never missed a game. He went six full against the Rocks and allowed just three hits and a run while striking out nine. He was brilliant and he was also brilliant in four rehab starts prior to that in which he went 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA. The Reds lead the NL in just about every offensive category and after losing 8-5 last night and facing Stephen Strasburgh, the ball might appear in slow motion when facing Hernandez. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
Wunderdog
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Royals vs. Yankees
Play: Under 9
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The Yankees’ C.C. Sabathia has found the groove after a tough start, and will be a handful for the Royals in this one. The Royals are not at their best vs. left-hand pitching where they plate less than 4 runs per game. The Yankees also score a half run less per game vs. lefthanders and Bruce Hen has been pitching well for the Royals. The Royals in their last 23 posted at +201 or more, have only managed to go over the total five times. The Yankees’ trouble vs. lefthanders has left them with a 20-9-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 30 at the Stadium vs. a southpaw. I'll go UNDER in this one.
Marc Lawrence
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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers and Mets meet in the opener of this four-game series this evening when Hiroki Kuroda matches serves with Hisanori Takahashi in this oriental showdown at Chavez Ravine. Kuroda enters in strong KW form with 15 strikeouts and three walks in his last three starts while Takahashi is just 1-3 with a 10.96 ERA in his last four starting efforts. With the Mets mired in a hitting slump of mammoth proportions, scoring just 24 runs in their last 12 games, look for Dodger blue to capture Game One here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Los Angeles.
Jack Jones
Minnesota Twin -155
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Minnesota has a huge advantage on the mound tonight with Carl Pavano over Kevin Millwood. Pavano is 11-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He has been even better on the road in 9 starts away from home, going 5-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 0.954 WHIP. Millwood is 2-8 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in 18 starts this season. The righty has really imploded over his last 3 starts, posting an 11.45 ERA and 2.364 WHIP. Millwood has allowed 14 earned runs and 26 base runners in 11 innings in those 3 outings.
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If those numbers from Millwood aren't bad enough to have you sold, then the fact that he is 0-8 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in 13 career starts vs. Minnesota should do the trick. Pavano is 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA in 8 career starts vs. Baltimore. Pavano is 46-19 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. The Twins are 39-13 in their last 52 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200. Baltimore is 19-57 in their last 76 games following a loss. Minnesota is 7-1 in Pavano's last 8 starts. Bet the Twins Thursday.
Frank Jordan
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Mets vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 8
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The Mets are scoring barely over 2 runs a game since the All-Star game. The Dodgers have also scored just over 2 runs a game since the break and both teams have each been shut out twice. In this one look for them to have a higher scoring affair with both teams scoring at least 5 runs each. Play the Over
Info Plays
3* on New York Mets +166
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Reasons the Mets win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season-NL, good baserunning team - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game on the season. This is a 34-22 ML System hitting 60.7% since 1997.
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2.) Hiroki Kuroda is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Dodgers are way too big of favorites tonight, and the value is clearly with the Mets in this one. Bet New York on the road.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -156
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After back-to-back losses, look for Boston to get back in the win column tonight. The Red Sox will be in good hands with Lackey, who isn't new to pitching in Seattle. In fact, he's won his last 5 starts there. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 3-14 in Rowland-Smith's last 17 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. the American League East. The Mariners are also just 2-9 in their last 11 home games and they have lost 5 straight series openers. Take the Red Sox.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -152
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These two teams are headed in opposite directions, and I'm going to side with the one on the upswing, especially since that team has Adam Wainwright on the bump. Wainwright is a perfect 10-0 with a 1.31 ERA at home this season. Plus, he enters this contest very dialed in, having gone 3-0 with an ERA of only 0.39 his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, Hamels is just 3-5 with an ERA of 4.69 on the road this season. I'll take the Red Birds with Wainwright going this afternoon.
Dwayne Bryant
Brewers at Pirates
Play: Under 8
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Very simply, these two have combined for 20 & 18 runs over the last two days, and that will have plenty of people racing to the window to grab the Over today at such a low number. But the oddsmakers set this line this low for a reason.
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Yovani Gallardo owns a 2.31 ERA in nine road starts, and a 1.57 ERA in 10 starts under the lights this season. His arm should be fresh, as this is his first start since 7/4 (strained an oblique muscle & spent time on the DL). And Gallardo has OWNED the Pirates, as he's 5-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 54 innings over nine starts against them. Gallardo beat them twice in a five-day span in April, allowing only two unearned runs and K'ing 14 in 11 innings.
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Ross Ohlendorf has a solid 2.53 ERA in his last four starts. He hasn't faced the Brewers this season, but he did face them three times last season. Ohlendorf had a 2.25 ERA in the two starts in Pittsburgh. Ohlendorf's arm should also be fresh, as he threw just 46 pitches in his last start.
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Bottom line: After two days of fireworks at PNC Park, I expect a much lower scoring outcome today. The oddsmakers set this line this low for a reason. I'll take UNDER 8 for a SMALL action wager.