Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati vs. Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers won AGAIN yesterday. (I had them as my free play). This should come as no surprise given that they've now won 23 of 28 including six straight. After sweeping both Washington and Toronto to start the second half, LA returns home Thursday to Chavez Ravine to take on fellow playoff contender Cincinnati.
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Given how they've played over the last month, I feel this price range is a real bargain on the Dodgers, at home no less. Even better is that Zach Grienke gets the start. He has yet to lose at Dodgers Stadium this season w/ a 5-0 record in seven starts (7-0 TSR). He has a 2.17 ERA and 0.986 here at home. Incredibly, going back to his days in Milwaukee, Greinke owns a 33-3 team start record as a home favorite the last three seasons. Lately, he's been sizzling w/ a 0.41 ERA his last three starts. Overall, the team has won his last six starts. His TSR in night games this season is 10-1. Again, what am I missing here? Greinke has also NEVER lost to the Reds in six career starts, going 4-0 w/ a 2.57 ERA.
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Cincinnati starter Mat Latos has been trending in the other directon lately w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP his last three starts. The Reds too have been playing well of late, but not as well as the Dodgers.
Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Reds vsDodgersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Matt Latos (9-3, 3.53 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Latos gave up three runs off four hits and four walks while striking out five over five frames in his team's eventual 5-4 win over the Pirates on Saturday. Latos hasn't been super sharp of late, but will take his very respectable 3-2, 3.52 ERA road record into LA to throw opposite Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.36 ERA) who was unfortunately saddled with a no-decision vs. the Nats on Saturday, giving up just one run by scattering seven hits and three walks while striking out three over six frames of work. Greinke has been exceptional of late, allowing just a single earned run over his last three starts spanning 22 frames of work; in fact, he's 5-0 with a tiny 2.36 ERA over his last six combined starts (note that Greinke is a perfect 5-0 with a minuscule 2.17 ERA in seven starts at Dodger Stadium this year). Two All-Stars battling it out in the opener of this four game set; this is the first time these teams have played against each other this season, but in 2012 they played six times and the O/U was 2-4. I believe the table is set for another classic pitchers duel; consider a second look at the "under" in this one.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Edmonton +6 over MONTREALFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Montreal stormed out to a 24-point, first quarter lead against Calgary last week and that outburst has many people trusting that the Als will snap out of it here with a solid 60 minutes of football. We’re not so sure. The Als caught the Stamps napping in the first quarter last week but they were outscored 38-3 the rest of the way en route to an 11-point defeat. The Alouettes defense is allowing more points per game than Edmonton and let’s not forget that the Als have played twice against Winnipeg while Edmonton has played B.C twice, Saskatchewan and Hamilton. Big contrast there is terms of strength of opposition and it’s not in Montreal’s favor. The Als have proven nothing so far to trust in this price range and remain a huge risk when spotting points.
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Edmonton is closer than Montreal in terms of being a relevant football team. Mike Reilly is far better than his numbers have shown. This kid is on the verge of a big game and this could be the week he puts it all together. Reilly gets to face a Montreal defense that is not only scrambling but that has had limited practice time this week because of the schedule that has the Als on a short week.
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Edmonton is also on a short week, however, its defense is rock solid and they figure to step up the pressure here against the rather immobile Anthony Calvillo. Edmonton is coming off back-to-back losses to the Lions but B.C. has not lost at home since early last season and the Eskies didn’t look a bit out of place in B.C. last week. Edmonton did a lot of good things in that game, eventually losing by 10 but they were in it the entire way up until very late in the fourth quarter. The Als have been outscored 42-2 in the third quarter of games this year, suggesting that the half time adjustments made by the opposition is killing the Als. Edmonton went on the road in Week 2 and destroyed the Tiger-Cats and played two decent games against B.C., one in the pouring rain. Montreal hasn’t come close to blowing out anyone. In fact, the Als have had the bounces go their way in terms of turnovers and penalties to the opposition, yet they’re 1-3 and have not been able to take advantage of anything. Edmonton is simply the better team here receiving points. We’re calling the upset.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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N.Y. METS +115 over AtlantaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a battle between two rookie pitchers. Zack Wheeler has started just six games for the Mets since being called up on June 18 to face these same Braves. He won that that game and became just the third starting pitcher in franchise history to earn a win in his big league debut and first since Masato Yoshii in 1998. For whatever reason, the Mets bats come alive when Wheeler starts. They’ve won four of his six starts and have scored five runs or more in all four of those games. The Mets have won Wheelers last three starts while outscoring the opposition 24-11. Wheeler was ranked as the Mets top prospect before the season began. He throws two plus pitches: a 93-95 mph fastball (tops out 98) with good late movement and a tight slider. He’s a pooch here because he’s facing the higher ranked Braves and his numbers in his six starts have not been great with 18 walks, 26 K’s and an ERA of 3.58 in 33 frames. However, Wheeler has pure raw stuff and he’s only going to get better as he continues to learn.
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Alex Wood was ranked the seventh best prospect in the Braves system (not in the majors) prior to the season starting. Wood has appeared in 16 games for the Braves this season but only one of those was a start and wouldn’t you know it, that lone start came against these same Mets on June 18. Wood lasted just three innings against New York in that start after allowing just two hits and one run but he walked three batters, threw 73 pitches and struck out five. His longest outing this season is 3.2 innings so it would be unreasonable to expect him to go past five frames here. Wood, a second round pick (88th overall) in the 2012 draft, has risen quickly through the system, dominating at AA-Mississippi before getting the call-up in late May. Wood is a lefty that brings a three pitch arsenal to the mound, featuring a plus fastball that sits 90-94 up to 96, a solid, average change-up, and a below average slider. His unorthodox delivery creates a lot of deception, allowing him to give up lots of weak contact but makes his mechanics inconsistent at times, causing his command and control to suffer. Scouts have two concerns with Wood: his breaking ball and mechanics. He struggles to throw his below-average slider for strikes and may need a better third pitch in order to remain a starter. He also employs a high-effort delivery in which he hops backward on his right leg after landing on it, though he does throw strikes. This is really an emergency start for Wood. He’s only pitched a total of 9 innings over the past 31 days and starting is a completely different animal than coming out of the pen to face five or six batters. The Mets are 21-14 against southpaws this year, they’ve seen this kids’ act and they offer up some nice value.
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Tampa Bay +120 over BOSTONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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John Lackey is getting plenty of press these days because of an outstanding first half. Lackey is 4th in the AL in ERA and top 10 in WHIP and strikeout to walk ratio (23/100 - BB/K -106.2 IP). Prior to the All-Star break, Lackey had gone six straight starts in which he allowed two runs or fewer. His current year-to-date command and 50% groundball rate both are the best levels of his career. All of this is very nice for Lackey and the Red Sox but it provides us with a great ”sell high” opportunity. Lackey is 34 years old with plenty of miles on his arm. Current Rays have 55 hits in 179 AB’s versus Lackey for a BA of .307. His BB/K rate against Tampa Bay (16/29 BB/K’s) is a fraction of what it is against other clubs. The Rays remain one of the hottest teams in the league and while Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers is getting all the press for being a stud rookie, there is also one in Tampa Bay that is quietly doing some serious damage of his own. Wil Myers is batting .322. He has two hits or more in eight of his past nine games and has five jacks and 21 RBI’s over his past 10 games. This kid has raw talent and has added as much spirit and pop to the Rays line-up as Puig has in L.A.
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Jeremy Hellickson is on a roll. He’s 4-0 in his last five starts with an ERA of 2.03. Over that span, covering 33 frames, Hellickson has whiffed 30 batters. Hellickson’s 4.62 ERA, which is due to some disastrous early starts and a low 65% strand rate, continues to keep him undervalued. Unlike Lackey, who has been torched by the Rays, Hellickson has thrived against Boston. In fact, current Red Sox have just 37 hits in 157 AB’s against Hellickson for a BA of .237. David Ortiz, who is out, is 8-22 off Hellickson (.364) and when you take away his bat, these Red Sox are batting a mere .196 off Hellickson. Yeah, we’d say the Rays have a shot here.
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L.A. Angels +101 over OAKLANDFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the A’s series win over the Astros in Houston. Oakland won two of three games in Houston. On Monday, the A’s scored two in the 7th and one in the 8th to eke out a 4-3 win. They lost on Tuesday and yesterday they scored three in the 8th to win 4-3 again. Had you bet the A’s in the first five innings, you would have gone 0-2-1. Somehow, someway, these imposters from Oakland have found late inning magic almost daily but it cannot last. The A’s are hitting a major-league low .209 in July, where they barely averaged six hits per game. Dan Straily has been in-and-out of the A’s rotation in the first half but he's got the goods to have a strong second half. He has an elite 11.5% swinging strike rate, which suggests that his decent strikeout rate has even more upside. His ERA has been hurt by a low 63% strand rate but his skills with runners on base have been excellent. However, current Angels have 24 hits 82 AB’s versus Straily (.293) and he has a fly-ball bias profile (36%/42% - FB/GB). What we know for sure is that the Angels offense is vastly superior to that of the A’s and that makes L.A. a very live pup.
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C.J. Wilson threw 8.1 shutout innings against Oakland in his most recent start and all three of his starts against them this season have been dominant. Wilson has allowed one earned run or less in four straight starts and over that span, he’s allowed just two earned runs in 29 innings. Wilson’s skills have improved every month since the start of the year. He has 118 K’s in 129 frames and has a 1.85 ERA over his last seven starts. Wilson has allowed just one jack over his past eight starts and has thrown seven full innings or more in six of his past eight. C.J. Wilson may just be the hottest pitcher in the majors and the fact that he’s the underdog here against this meek hitting line-up is bordering on absurd.
Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Diamondbacks -158FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cubs held on for an extra-innings win last night. However, they are 0-5 in their last five games following victory. They certainly haven't had much luck when Villanueva gets the ball, going 1-6 in his last seven starts. He's carrying a 5.04 ERA on the road and a 6.43 ERA over his last three starts. Arizona appears to be in better hands with Miley on the mound. The southpaw enters this contest with a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts. The D-backs have won five of his seven home starts this season. They're also 13-3 in his last 16 home starts versus losing clubs and 4-1 in his last five starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Cubs have fallen 37 times in their last 54 games in Arizona. Take the Snakes.
Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers -113FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers are showing exceptional value at home tonight. LA has won six straight and 23 of their last 28 overall. They appear to have a decisive edge on the mound with Zach Greinke going up against the struggling Mat Latos. Greinke is a perfect 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA at Dodgers Stadium this season and 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA over his last six outings against the Reds. Latos has a 7.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP over his last three starts and has not won a single of his five career starts at Dodgers Stadium.
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The Dodgers are an impressive 12-3 in Greinke's 15 starts this season (7-0 at home). Not to mention, Greinke is 14-5 over his last 19 starts with a money line of +125 to -125, 14-2 over his last 16 with a total set at 7 or less and a ridiculous 33-3 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher, 21-1 as home favorite after his team won the previous game and 10-1 in his last 11 night games.
Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orioles/Royals Under 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I look for a low-scoring, pitcher's duel tonight between the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals. Both starting pitchers tonight are underrated and not getting the respect they deserve with this total set.
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Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez has been dominant this season, going 8-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 17 starts. He has been at his best on the road, going 3-3 with a 2.93 ERA in nine starts. Gonzalez is also 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts, allowing exactly one earned run in each.
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Jeremy Guthrie has gone 9-7 with a 4.41 ERA over 20 starts this season. Guthrie faced the Orioles on May 9 of this year, allowing one earned run over six innings of a 6-2 Kansas City victory. Gonzalez has one career start against the Royals, giving up just one earned run over eight innings of a 7-1 Baltimore triumph.
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The UNDER is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Orioles last 12 road games. The UNDER is 14-3 in Royals last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 15-5-2 in Guthrie's last 22 starts as an underdog. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
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Baltimore -135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Baltimore Orioles have bashed right-handed pitching this season with a batting average almost 30 points higher against them than when versus a lefty. The powerful O's lineup will get to feast here on Jeremy Guthrie in this one. Guthrie hasn't been very good this season, but he's been even worse of late with an ERA of 5.54 in his last four starts. If you throw out his first six starts of the year, Guthrie has an awful 5.38 ERA since then. Not a big fan of this Royals team. Kansas City is built more like a National League team as it's hit the fewest home runs in the American League this season -- and by a wide margin also as they are 26 dingers behind the next closest team overall. The Baltimore Orioles are a powerful offensive squad as they lead the majors in the long ball with 136 overall on the year. Many folks will point to the Orioles small home ballpark as the reason for this, but that's not the case at all as the O's have also hit the most road home runs in MLB this season with 68. The key to Baltimore going far this season lies in their inconsistent starting pitcher, but the one guy who has been the steadiest of the group will start here in this one, Miguel Gonzalez. With eight straight quality starts to his credit, Gonzalez has been a huge savior so far for an O's team that has won seven of his last nine starts. Gonzalez has an ERA of just above 2.00 in all of his starts since June and remains a guy flying way under the betting markets' radar. The Orioles are just too strong. Take Baltimore here in this game.
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San Diego at MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Milwaukee -130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The San Diego Padres made a nice run in the NL West when they went on a 16-8 tear. The problem is that they have been just 7-21 since then. Outside of the 16-8 run, this team stands in at just 29-49 in all other games. There have been a lot of inquiries made as to the availability of Yovani Gallardo, but the Brewers insist he is unavailable. Gallardo is 68-46 over the last five seasons. Edinson Volquez has been a huge disappointment with a 7-8 record and an ERA not far from 6. He has not had success when facing the Brew Crew where his 11 career starts show an ERA of 5.05. San Diego is just 3-12 in their last 15 road games. Milwaukee owns a crisp 48-18 mark in Gallardo's last 66 starts as a home favorite. Milwaukee is also 5-1 in Gallardo's last six starts against the Padres. Play this one on Milwaukee.
Ian CameronFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Edmonton at MontrealFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: EdmontonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these teams are struggling at 1-3 and neither has impressed me much. However, Montreal truly has no business being favored by this margin against anyone right now – especially with a 0-2 SU and ATS mark on their home field.
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Montreal has played two good quarters of football in four games season. That is about it. Their offense has been largely non-existent except for last week’s first quarter 24 point outburst as head coach Dan Hawkins has proven he has no clue how to run an efficient offense in this league. Montreal’s offensive line remains a problem area as they continue to have trouble protecting their Anthony Calvillo and have been mediocre at best in run blocking. And things have gotten worse since the season ending injury to the team’s best and most experienced offensive lineman Scott Flory who is a 15-year CFL veteran. The defense which had been the only thing keeping Montreal to stay in games finally succumbed last week and got blitzed for 38 points by Calgary who had their backup quarterback Kevin Glenn starting in place of an injured Drew Tate. The Alouettes may also be suffering a mental hangover from blowing a 24-0 first quarter lead. It’s a short turn around for Montreal playing Edmonton just five days after that monumental collapse and I’m not sure they can get up off the mat.
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Edmonton has had as many struggles as Montreal has but the Eskimos are the ones catching points here, not the ones laying them. Edmonton has at least shown they are capable of going on the road and winning when they went into Guelph and defeated the Hamilton Tiger-Cats 30-20 in Week 2 as 7-point road underdogs. They faced Saskatchewan and BC in their other three games who are hands down the best two teams in the CFL right now so Edmonton should enjoy facing Montreal tonight which is a major step down in class. Offensively Edmonton has done well running the football despite struggles from quarterback Mike Reilly in the passing game. They’re facing a Montreal defense that has allowed more than 100 yards per game. I expect Edmonton to have success running the football with Hugh Charles and that should keep Mike Reilly out of 2nd and long situations and allow him to be more effective throwing the football.
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It’s worth noting that Edmonton nearly beat a much better Montreal team last season on this field – a 27-25 loss but they got the ATS win as 5-point road underdogs. A similar result here cashes our ticket but I wouldn’t be surprised if Edmonton finds a way to pull off the outright win.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Over in the Tigers-White Sox game.
Normally one would look for the Under to be the way to go with Justin Verlander and Jake Peavy starting, but that has not been the case for Verlander, as the Cy Young winner has had his issues this year, sporting a season ERA of 3.69, and he has allowed 10 runs and 21 hits his last 19-plus innings of work.
The Over has gone 4-2 the last 6 times he has started, and is 13-7 for the season in his 20 trips to the mound.
Jake Peavy is back after being sidelined for over a month, and while he pitched decent in his first start back, the Over is 5-2-1 the last 8 times the veteran righty has started.
Last night's 6-2 final fell just shy of going Over, but the Over is still 6-2-1 the past 9 times these division-rivals have played. Go Over the total one more time on Thursday.
2♦ DETROIT-WHITE SOX OVER
Brad Wilton
Tampa Bay for free last night makes it 3 in a row with my comp play releases!
Thursday's comp play goes early, as I play Under the total in the Yankees-Rangers series finale from Arlington.
Both teams will hit the road after this one, and you know damn well they do not want to be out in the July heat in Texas any longer than they have to be. The Under is now 6-2-1 the last 9 times these teams have tangled after last night's 3-1 final, and today's pitchers have been pretty darn tough on the hitters lately.
Hiroki Kuroda has allowed 2 runs or less in 3 straight starts, and 6 of his last 7 overall. The Under is 14-4 when he starts, and his ERA over his last 3 starts stands at 0.96!
Derek Holland is not far behind, as the Under is 5-2-1 the past 8 times Holland has made the start. Holland's ERA during the daylight stands at 2.68, so do not expect the soft-hitting Yanks to muster too much of an attack in this one.
Have to believe we are looking at an Under to conclude this long 4 game set on Thursday afternoon.
5♦ N.Y. YANKEES-TEXAS UNDER
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is going to be on the Houston Astros plus all that money up in Toronto, where yes, I like the cellar dwellers to shock the Blue Jays. Seriously, why not? Toronto hasn't lived up to preseason expectations and the American League East looks the same, with Boston and the New York Yankees dominating. And the 'Stros just gave the Athletics one helluva series.
I'm not convinced Mark Buehrle is at his best these days, so you can't really believe he's going to dominate Houston's bleak lineup.
Though he comes in after recording his 11th quality start of the season last Saturday against the Rays, he also strolled off the mound with his seventh loss of the season. He was battered in the first three innings and never stood a chance. He has an ERA of 4.83 and I don't trust him.
Finally, I am going to insist you list Houston starter Erik Bedard, despite a terrible record and ERA on the year, as he's a Canadian-native, and something tells me he's going to pitch with pride in this one. He takes the mound tonight after a rather strong outing on Saturday, when in which he struck out 10 over 6-1/3 hitless innings Saturday.
And if all that doesn't get you to believe the left-hander will be fired up, he's the second Astros pitcher in history to be pulled with a no-hitter in at least the seventh. Something tells me he's going to be hungry to go longer.
Take the Astros, and list Bedard ONLY in this one.
4♦ HOUSTON
Chris Jordan
Third straight day my complimentary winner is in the Pittsburgh-Washington series, and today in this matinee I want you playing the Nationals with Gio Gonzalez over the Pirates. Do not worry about listing A.J. Burnett, I only want you listing Gonzalez.
See, the Nationals left-hander is the last hope in this series, and maybe the campaign as the Pirates have come to town proving they're no fluke this season. To avoid the sweep, the Nationals turn to the one person who may have been the most consistent hurler this season.
Gonzalez is in after allowing just four hits while tying a career high with 11 strikeouts over six scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Unfortunately for Gio, the offense couldn't give him enough run support once again, and he came away with a no-decision. He's still 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA this year, and lifetime versus the Bucs is 2-0 with a 2.84.
Great spot to look at the Nats. List Gonzalez, and play the home team.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Scott Delaney
On the heels of nailing the St. Louis Cardinals on the Run Line as my comp winner last night, I'm going with the Oakland Athletics tonight, over their rivals, the Angels, who arrive to town for a crucial four-game weekend set.
I'm not going to worry about listing either C.J. Wilson or Dan Straily, cause quite frankly, it's not worth the risk of having no action when the play clearly is on the teams.
What we have is a battle of division rivals at O.co Coliseum in a showdown of two anemic offenses. The biggest question tonight will be which offense I think has the capability of a breakout game, and my money is on the Athletics getting it done.
See, while the A's are hitting a bleak .203 while averaging 2.6 runs over their last 12 games, the Halos arrive in Oaktown having been limited to just four runs or fewer in a season-high nine straight games. During that span the Angels are averaging merely 2.1 runs per contest.
With this series in Oakland, it's a mere matter of time before the A's heat up offensively, especially knowing the Angels have lost 11 of their last 15 matchups in Oakland.
3♦ OAKLAND