Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday July, 26

Vegas Experts

Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Play : Seattle Mariners

When the Seattle Mariners open their four-game set against Kansas City Royals handing the ball to southpaw Jason Vargas (10-7, 3.91 ERA) they'll have conditions on their side. Vargas is in great form going 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA over his past five starts including a win at Kansas City last week which moved his life-time mark vs Royal to 3-1. With Seattle 6-1 in Vargas' last 7 against A.L. Central opponents expect Mariners to move to 4-1 vs K.C. this season while Royals to fall to 1-7 vs a left-handed starter, 0-6 opening a series and Luis Mendoza (4-6, 4.31 ERA) drops to 0-2 life-time vs Seattle.

Matt Fargo

Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners lost their series finale with the Yankees last night to fall to 18-29 on the season at home which remains the worst home record in all of baseball. While playing on Seattle at home may not seem like a good option, picking the right spot is necessary and with the low price tonight, this is one of those spots. The Mariners offense has been the issue at Safeco Field but the pitching has certainly held its own with a 3.13 ERA, sixth best in baseball. Seattle has won five straight games following a loss. Kansas City dropped two of three in Los Angeles and the winning has been few and far between. The Royals won four straight games toward the end of June but since then they have gone 6-17 over their last 23 games and while the overall record shows them at only two games under .500, they are 3-10 over their last 13 road games over this stretch. The pitching has been abysmal, allowing six runs or more 14 times over those last 23 games and the Royals are 2-9 in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. The Mariners pitching has been bolstered by Jason Vargas who has a 3.93 ERA on the season but he has actually been better than that. He had one horrible outing in Arizona where he allowed 10 runs and his ERA is 3.37 in his other 20 starts. Pitching at home has been even better as he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight starts, six of which have been quality outings. Overall he is riding a five-game quality start streak as well as posting three straight quality starts against the Royals, all resulting in Seattle wins. Kansas City counters with Luis Mendoza and he has come out of nowhere to become the Royals most consistent pitcher of late. He posted a 5.59 ERA through the end of May which included five starts and three relief appearances but after a solid stint out of the bullpen to open June, he regained a spot in the rotation and he has been great ever since. Six of his seven starts have been quality but his WHIP is a major concern still as it sits at 1.48 overall as he is allowing a ton of baserunners.

Rob Vinciletti

Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

Seattle fits a solid 80% system here tonight that plays on home favorites off a home dog loss and had 4 or less hits , vs an opponent off a road dog loss. Seattle has won 7 of 11 as a home favorite to -125. The Royals are 0-3 on the road with a total of 7 or less and have dropped 15 of 21 in July. Vargas for the Mariners has better numbers than Mendoza for K.C. Vargas has won 3 of 4 vs K.C and has allowed just 5 runs in 18 innings the last 3 vs the Royals. Look for Seattle to take the opener.

Marc Lawrence

LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis
Play: L.A. Dodgers

The Dodgers and Cardinals conclude their four-game series in St. Louis Thursday afternoon where Chris Capuano opposes Jake Westbrook at Busch Stadium. Capuano enters the fray in solid KW form with 17 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts sporting a 9-5 career mark in team starts during the month of July. On the flip side, Westbrook has dropped 5 of his last 8 home team starts and 11 of his last 18 team starts during July. With that look for Westbrook to fall to 0-2 in his career team starts in this series here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

David Chan

Detroit vs. Cleveland
Pick: Under

The Tigers' Justin Verlander (11-5, 2.42 ERA) is set to square off against the the Indians' Zach McAllister (4-2, 3.21 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Verlander scattered four hits over eight frames, giving up a two-run home run, to beat the White Sox 4-2 on Friday; he struck out six and walked two in the commanding performance. It was the big right-handers second win in a row, and seventh in his last eight outings, going 7-1 with a 1.96 ERA in that span. Verlander has 142 K's on the year which ranks him second in the league. The Tigers' ace will be out for a little redemption here as well after losing to the Indians back on May 24th, giving up just two runs over eight strong frames. Verlander is 6-3 with a 3.08 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

McAllister was a bit of a hard-luck loser last time out, as he certainly pitched well enough to win, but was unable to receive much support, after giving up three runs over 7 2/3's frames in his team's 3-1 loss to Orioles last Saturday; he'd finish with six strikeouts, but two costly home runs were the difference. The 24 year old though has been pretty good this year though, and is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA over his last five starts. McAllister faced the Tigers already this season, and was solid, giving up two runs over 6 2/3's innings of work.

A couple of red hot hurlers going head-to-head; all signs point to a classic "pitchers duel"; you may want to consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

Hollywood Sports

Egypt vs Brazil
Pick Over

Take the Over in the match between Brazil and Egypt in the Men's Olympic Football Tournament on Thursday. As an initial note, the Olympics are now an Under-23 tournament in men's soccer -- with the lone (but important) caveat that national teams have the right to retain three additional players 23-years old or over to retain on their Olympic roster. After handicapping the 16 teams in the field, this will have important ramifications since looking at past results of a national squad's younger teams will not be enough to successfully make money during these games. While Brazil may have five World Cup championships in their national history, they lack an Olympic's Gold Medal -- and they want to change that. With that motivation combining with their desire to build momentum for their much-anticipated hosting of the 2014 World Cup, Brazil enters this event on-fire. With the comparable level of talent on their national soccer team as the USA enjoys on their basketball team, Brazil is taking their preparation for these games as seriously as they ever have -- including living in a sequestered hotel away from Olympic Village. Led the 20-year old superstar Neymar, Brazil has goal-scorers everywhere. However, they did take a bit of a blow this week when their starting goaltender, Rafael, was knocked out of these games completely with an injury on Monday. That is a recipe for a higher-scoring game with a Brazil team that knows they cannot rely on their backup goalie (Neto, a reserve for the Italian club Fiorentina). Egypt enters these games with high ambitions themselves after embracing a very aggressive nine-game friendly schedule to prepare for this event. This team finished 5-3-1 in their qualifying round while scoring 12 goals over that span. This team can very easily score a goal against the Brazilians which makes that 2 1/2 goal Total very enticing. This club will also likely play very inspired given the events in February that destroyed their professional league season. In a match between Al-Masry and Al-Ahly, a terrible riot broke out between the fans of the opposing teams that led to 79 deaths and over a thousand injuries. These brutal events forced the cancellation of the league for the season. While the lack of that league experience does not help, Egypt's roster is filled with players from both teams that have now played together in those nine friendlies. Don't be surprised if the players come together and play very well together with this opportunity for a symbolic moment of healing. Egypt should offer Brazil a game test -- which means getting on the scoreboard. This team proved they could do just that after eight different players scored goals in their qualifying round. Take the Over in this one.

Jim Feist

Pirates vs Astros
Pick: Under

Pittsburgh eyes a good chance to close the 2 1/2 game gap between them and the Reds in the NL Central. The Pirates open a series against the worst team in baseball, the Houston Astros. The Astros have lost nine straight after getting swept by the Reds. There are a lot of reasons to like the Pirates here, but the line is a bit steep to lay on the road. So I'm going to look at the UNDER. I'm counting on the Astros to continue their poor hitting. Houston is fourth from the bottom of the NL in runs/game (3.83), second from the bottom of the NL in batting average (.241) and their batters strike out more than any other team in the NL (800 times this year). Pittsburgh relies more on its pitching, as the hitting averages in the bottom half of the NL in runs/game and batting average. A.J. Burnett gets the start for the Bucs with a 11-3 record and 3.59 ERA. He's also 2-1 over his last three starts with a 3.00 ERA. Dallas Keuchel has pitched decent for the Astros with a 4.03 ERA, though he's just 1-2 in six games. If the Astros can at least keep this one close, it should go UNDER.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

Chris Capuano has had a terrific season, but he is much tougher at home than on the road. Jake Westbrook has been sharp of late, and St. Louis is lambasting visiting southpaws. I'll back the Cardinals today.

Scott Spreitzer

St. Louis Cardinals -137

Big trade involving the Dodgers bringing Hanley Ramirez to the west coast, the key cog in a four player trade with Miami. Ramirez tripled and singled in last night's Dodger debut and should fit in quite nicely batting behind Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. But despite his two-hit night at the plate, the Dodgers still managed to score just two runs in an extra inning loss at Busch Stadium. Pitching in St. Louis has not been music to Chris Capuano's ears. The lefthander has been horrible against the Cardinals and at this venue throughout his career. He's not likely to get any breaks on Thursday against a Redbird lineup that plates an average of 7 rpg in home day games against lefthanded starters. Meanwhile, the Dodgers average under 4 rpg in road day games against righties and Jake Westbrook has helped his team to a 5-2 mark in his last seven starts, while lowering his season ERA from 4.27 to 3.60 in the process. Westbrook stays out of trouble because he rarely gives up the "long ball." The veteran hurler has allowed just 2 home runs in his last 54 innings of work. He'll face a Dodger squad that's won just two of their last 10 road games against righthanded pitching. Meanwhile, the Cards are on a 7-1 run at home. I'm betting the Cards will put a dent in Capuano's run with a win on Thursday. I'm recommending a play on St. Louis.

Jesse Schule

Gabon vs. Switzerland (90 Mins)
Pick: Switzerland

The Swiss come into this tournament off a very successful campaign at the Under 21 UEFA Championships last year, not conceding a single goal en route to the final where they lost 2-0 to Spain. Their already stingy defense will get an added injection of skill with the addition of Diego Benaglio, the 28 year old goalkeeper plays for the Swiss national team, and is one of their overage players here at the Olympics.

After a shocking upset victory at the Africa Cup of Nations, Gabon qualified for the Olympics for the first time. This team doesn't bring a lot of experience to the table, and African nations often don't fare well in these tournaments when up against the stronger teams in Europe.

Gabon is likely to be outclassed by a stronger defensive Swiss side, and this game should end in a victory for Switzerland.

SPORTS WAGERS

Kansas City +109 over SEATTLE

The Mariners are in a letdown spot after a sold out series against the Yankees that generated much hype after they dealt Ichiro to the Yanks. Seattle is just 18-29 at Safeco and will face a Royals club that is swinging some decent bats right now. Despite losing two of three at pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium, the Royals still scored 16 runs.

Luis Mendoza is one pitcher on this KC staff that is on the verge of something good. He has an elite 57% groundball rate and has allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts. He’s pitched well enough to win most of those games and the Royals are 4-3 in his past seven starts. Over his past five starts, Mendoza has been taken yard just one time. All arrows point to positive.

Jason Vargas is about as average as they come. He has an xERA of 4.91. He has a below average groundball/fly-ball split of 39%/41%. He’s had success over the past month due to an incredible and unsustainable 94% strand rate. Indications are an expected ERA increase in Vargas’s future and as home chalk, he and the Mariners are not to be trusted.

DOM CHAMBERS

For today’s free play, let’s take the Milwaukee Brewers over the Washington Nationals.

For the Brewers, Yovani Gallardo gets the start and he’s been one of the better startes for the Brewers. In his last three starts, he is 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA.

Edwin Jackson starts for the Nationals and he has been inconsistent at best. He is 5-6 with a 3.73 ERA overall. But has stumbled lately, going 1-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 4.58.

The Brewers should get to Jackson and score some runs. The Brewers have hit a rough patch, losing six straight. But his could be the spot where they break the losing streak. The Nationals have won four in a row.

The Brewers are home and are struggling to get a win. With Jackson starting, the Brewers should find get healthy on offense and that will also fuel their defense.

Look for both streaks to come to an end.

2* BREWERS

Jeff Benton

Your Thursday freebie is the Mets-Diamondbacks to go Over the total.

Last night I gave you the Rockies-Diamondbacks Under the total, but that was a rare low-scoring game for Arizona this month. The Snakes had plated a massive 58 runs in their previous seven contests, and I think the runs are going to add up again tonight as the Mets give rookie Matt Harvey his first major league start.

Arizona starter Wade Miley has been showing a little chink in his armor, as his ERA for his last three starts is approaching four.

The Mets are 6-3 Over the total their last nine games, while the D-Backs are 4-2-1 Over the posted price their last seven contests.

I like the runs to add up tonight.

Mets-Diamondbacks open their four game series with an Over.

4♦ OVER

Bryan Power

Kansas City vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle

This is hardly the most important series of the weekend in the American League, but I strongly feel that Thursday's series opener between the Royals and Mariners offers up some excellent value on the home team. I recently won with Seattle, on Tuesday, as a Top Rated 10* over the Yankees. They had their ace Felix Hernandez on the hill that night and will have another strong starter going here in left-hander Jason Vargas.

Vargas has pitched very well of late, winning three consecutive starts (1.71 ERA). He's allowed three earned runs or less in five consecutive starts. Perhaps most impressive is that all three wins came on the road. The Royals are just 12-19 vs. lefties this season. Over the last three seasons, they are 14-39 on the road vs. lefties. Though Seattle lost to the Yankees Wednesday, they should be just fine here as Vargas has a 10-3 team start record this season when the team is off a loss.

Kansas City is falling apart at the seems with losses in 8 of its last 11 contests. They recently dropped three of four, at home, to the Mariners including a 9-4 setback against Vargas on July 16th. Look for a repeat of that result tonight.