Dave Essler
Nationals / Brewers Over 8
First off the Brewers have lost three straight games 7-6 and all late, so they already know they just cannot possibly score enough runs. Gallardo has thrown over 100 pitches in 15 straight games, which is, this time of year, a lot of wear and tear. In those starts he's never pitched more than seven innings, meaning that should be at least two innings of that Brewers bullpen, which as we know has been awful So awful that their ERA over the last seven games is 7.11.
And of course the Nationals pen is indeed better, but they used more arms than they thought they would in New York, and both Storen and Burnett have worked the last two days.
Having worked backwards, the Brewers have had success against Jackson and Washington has hit Gallardo reasonably well. Both teams come in hot at the plate, so either is capable of getting most, if not all, of these runs by themselves.
Lastly, it's a beautiful day in Milwaukee and not that hot, meaning the roof will probably be open with a slight helping breeze, so we're betting the over given that there are far more ways this get to 8 than not.
Andre Gomes
Switzerland -140
The Swiss youth teams have been excellent in the last few years, as it could be seen in the last Under-21 European Championships last year, where they were runner ups to Spain. Their roster is formed by a group of very talented youngsters, already playing some major minutes in the most competitive leagues in Europe such as the German and Italian leagues, while others are already key pieces in some of the best Swiss teams. They will be missing Xherdan Shaqri and Granit Xhaka in this competition and this removes a lot of creativity to the team, but I don't think this will be a major problem against the completely inexperienced Gabonese team.
Gabon is very surprisingly on this competition after winning the African qualifying event. However, we are talking about a team who has never played a major competition before and whose most of their players still play in the Gabonese league, whose competitive level is ridiculous in comparison to the competition the Swiss players experience in Europe. This difference of experience and competitive level between Switzerland and Gabon will surely help the Swiss team in having huge edges in terms of tactical discipline, defensive focus and even physical condition, especially in the last 20 minutes of the game.
I believe Gabon will heavily struggle today on their debut match on their first International competition ever, while the much more experienced Switzerland squad will take advantage of the silly errors Gabon will eventually commit to comfortably win this match. Therefore, I'll take the Swiss team to win today.
Jimmy Boyd
Pittsburgh Pirates -157
Nothing is going Houston's way right now. The Astros have lost 9 in a row and 22 of their last 24. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is playing its best ball of the season. The Pirates have won 6 of 8 and 17 of their last 24. It is also worth noting that the Pirates have won their last 6 games versus the Astros.
Pittsburgh has the edge on the mound with A.J. Burnett, who is 11-3 (14-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.59. The Pirates are 7-0 in Burnett's last 7 starts as a favorite. The Astros, on the other hand, are just 1-4 in Dallas Keuchel's 5 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 4.03. He's been hit pretty hard in his last two, and one of those was against Pittsburgh (6-4 loss). Take the Pirates.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Arizona D-backs -172
I'm fading the Mets, who have lost 6 in a row and 12 of 13. The D-backs have won 5 of their last 6, and they have the edge with Wade Miley on the mound. The Diamondbacks are 16-6 in Miley's last 22 starts, 5-1 in his last 6 home starts and 9-0 in his last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. It is also worth mentioning that the Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 at Arizona. Take the Snakes.
Evan Abrams
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Oakland has absolutely dominated the second half of the MLB season so far, catching ground in the American League West very quickly. The Athletics have won 16 of their last 18 games (7-game winning streak at current moment) and that craziest thing about their streak is they still need to keep up this type of pace if they want to catch the Rangers and Angels in their division. Take the Blue Jays today to cool down Oakland in Canada.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Tampa Bay/ Baltimore Under 9: Since allowing 10 runs to the Indians last week the Tampa staff has done a great job, allowing just 9 total runs in their last 6 games. James shields has struggled of late allowing 4 ER's or more in 5 of his last 6 starts, but he will be taking on a struggling offense today. The O's have scored just 10 total runs in their last 5 games, including just 1 run in each of their last 3 games. The Orioles have hit just .234 and have scored 4 rpg vs righties this year, with those games going 42-27 to the UNDER. The Orioles have had one of the better staffs for much of the year and while they did allow 10 runs last night they has still allowed 3 ER's or less in each of their previous 7 games. Chris Tillman gets the ball today and he has a 2.15 ERA in three starts this year. He did have 1 rough start but he other two have been solid and he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 4 of his 5 career starts vs the Rays. Tampa's offense has been a mess for much of the year, as they have hit just .233 and have scored just 4.2 rpg overall this year.The Rays do average 4.5 rpg on the road, but they have averaged just 3.9 rpg this year in day games and just 3.8 rpg in their last 5 games overall, despite putting up 10 runs last night. Tampa's last 5 games have averaged just 5.6 rpg, while the O's last 5 have averaged just 6 rpg. I expect the pitchers to get the better of this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
ST LOUIS -135 over LA Dodgers: Google News Play. We will side with the Cardinals in this one. Some interesting stats for Chris Capuano here. Cris may be 5-3 ob the road this year, but his ERA is 4.10, compared to a 1.64 ERA at home. That has been pattern for him in his career as he has a 3.75 ERA in his home starts, compared to a 4.72 ERA in his road starts. Now in last night's game there were temps of over 100 at game time and you can expect similar temps for this one and for a pitcher that seems to tire in the second half that could be a factor. In his career Chris is 10 games over .500 with a 3.70 ERA in the first half, but in the second half he is 12 games under .500 with a 4.88 ERA. We also note that Chris was 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA in 3 career starts at the old Busch Stadium, but he has gone 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA in 4 career starts in this park. Jake Westbrook has been pitching very well for the Cards of late and even though he is just 1-2 in his last 3 starts he has a 2.14 ERA over that stretch. Jake is 5-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home, but in his last 2 home starts he is 1-0 with an 0.66 ERA. The Dodgers arenot a great road team, while the Cards are tough at home and looking to keep pace with the Reds. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against road dogs of +125 to +175 that hits .250 or less and has a pitcher that allows 5.5 hits or less per game vs a team, who's starter has a .370 or better ERA. This Angle is 59-17 the last 5+ seasons.
Pittsburgh -155 over HOUSTON: In their home series vs the Cubs, Pittsburgh really looked disinterested at time and they lost 2 of three to Chicago. Their offense had troubles scoring, as they put up just 4 runs in the 3 games, but I believe that getting away from their big park and playing in a more offensive minded park vs one of the worst staffs in the league will really help this team. Also having AJ Burnett on the mound won't hurt either. AJ has allowed no more than 3 ER's in 13 of his 16 starts this year. He really has had just 2 bad starts and one of them was at home vs Houston, in which he allowed 6 ER's in 5 innings of work, so you can bet that he will be fully focused for a little payback in this one. AJ does have a 6.30 ERA on the road, but if you throw out the game vs St Louis, in which he allowed 12 ER's, then he would have a very nice 4-2 mark with a 3.86 ERA. In that last game that Houston rocked AJ they put up 7 runs, but have since (18 games) scored 7 or more just once and have averaged a mere 2.7 rpg. This is a team with a lot of offensive problems and they don't look to get better vs this staff this weekend. The Pirates score around 3.5 rpg at home, but on on the road they put up 4.6 rpg and should do well vs Dallas Keuchel, who has just 5 starts in his career. He did well in his first 3 starts, allowing just 1 ER in each, but has been hit in his last two starts, allowing 10 ER's in the two starts. One of those was vs the Pirates and they tagged him for 4 ER's on 7 hits in 5.2 innings of work. Now having faced the Pirates already he loses his advantage, Not that he really had one vs them the first time. Pittsburgh couldn't get up for the lowly Cubs and it cost them two games. They won't let that happen here vs a team that is just 2-22 in their last 24 games.
NY Mets/ Arizona Over 9: Google News Play 28-5-4 OVER. That's all you need to know. LOL I will elaborate more. That number is the OU record of Met games when they have faced a lefty this year. 10.8 rpg is also an important number as that is home many runs per game have been scored when they face a southpaw this year. On the road this year when the Mets have faced a southpaw the Over is 13-2-1, with an average of 11.40 rpg being scored in the 15 games. 12 of those 15 games put up at least 9 runs. Now what's really interesting about those numbers is the fact that the Mets don't really hit lefties that good on the road as they hit just .248 and score just 3.99 rp/9 off them. even more interesting is the fact that the Mets have allowed 6.1 rpg vs lefties this compared to allowing 4.9 rpg overall. What's interesting there that the fact that the opposing pitcher is a lefty should have no bearing at all on New York's pitching staff yet they still allow 6.1 rpg vs lefties, but 3.67 rpg when they take on a righty. Very interesting, but I will continue to ride the trend. The Mets score 5.1 rpg on the road, compared to 4 rpg at home and Arizona has averaged a healthy 5.4 rpg in this park this year. Matt Harvey gets the call up and I'm not expecting more than 5 or 6 innings from him and that then turns the ball over to a NY pen that has a 5.73 ERA on the road. Wade Miley has been solid, especially at home, where he has a 2.55 ERA and thanks to his team supporting him with 6.3 rpg at home his home starts have averaged 9.6 rpg. I expect the Mets to be able to hit him and once he is out then we will see a D-Backs pen that has a 4.13 ERA at home and that pen has allowed 20 of the 27 HR's that the pen has allowed at home. I see at least 12 runs in this one.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (8-1 RUN) (17-9 +5.31 Units)
Since 2007 the OVER is 18-2 when the Cards are off a game which was tied in exactly 3 separate occasions. Play on St Louis/ Dodgers OVER 9.
Since 2004 the Royals are just 2-16 in game 1 of a series if the line is within 20 cents of a pick and they are off a 5+ run loss and their pitcher had a WHIP of more than 1.50 in that game. Play on Seattle -119 over Kansas City
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals +117
The Washington Nationals continue to win with no signs of slowing down. They have won five straight games to get to 58-39 on the season while adding to their lead in the NL East division. I'll gladly back them as an underdog tonight against the struggling Brewers.
Milwaukee is deflated right now, losers of six straight games overall. Five of those losses have come by exactly one run. The Brewers lost by identical 6-7 scores in all three games at Philadelphia from Monday-Wednesday despite holding a late lead in all of those contests. I wouldn't be surprised to see them pack it in the rest of the way.
Edwin Jackson has pitched well for Washington this season, going 5-6 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.147 WHIP over 18 starts. His numbers are basically on par with Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo, who is 8-7 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.339 WHIP over 20 starts.
The Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Washington is 7-1 in its last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Nationals are 41-19 in their last 60 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Brewers are 0-7 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the Nationals Thursday.
Steve Janus
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+120)
This is a great spot to jump on the Diamondbacks to win by at least two runs. While Arizona lost last night at home to the Rockies, they are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. Each of those 7 wins have come by at least 2 runs, which is a big reason why I feel comfortable playing the run line.
While the Diamondbacks come in playing some solid baseball, the Mets have lost 12 of their last 13 games, including six straight home games. They are now 11.5 games behind Washington in the NL East and 7 games out of a wild card spot. I have a hard time seeing this team getting motivated to play after traveling cross country.
I also think Arizona has a huge advantage on the mound. The Diamondbacks will send out rookie sensation Wade Miley, who is 11-5 with a 3.02 ERA in 16 starts and three relief appearances. Miley has been at his best at Chase Field, where he is 6-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 8 starts.
The Mets will counter with 2010 first round pick Matt Harvey. While Harvey has the potential to be an ace in the big leagues, he has a long ways to go. He was just 7-5 with a 3.68 ERA in Triple-A. I fully expect him to struggle in hitter-friendly Chase Field tonight.
Arizona is 33-15 in their last 48 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 20-7 in their last 27 home games, and a perfect 9-0 in Miley's last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Jeff Alexander
Detroit Tigers -162
The Tigers are playing extremely well. They have won 14 of their last 17, and I expect them to keep rolling tonight with ace Justin Verlander on the bump. The Tigers are 38-13 in Verlander's last 51 starts, 40-11 in his last 51 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 21-5 in his last 26 starts as a road favorite of -151 to -200. The Indians are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. Also, the Tigers are 10-3 in Verlander's last 13 starts vs. the Indians. Bet Detroit.
MLB Predictions
Pittsburgh Pirates -155
The Pirates enter tonight's game off of a win against the Cubs to avoid the sweep. They are 6-2 in their last 8 games and 55-42 on the season (22-26 on the road). The Astros new addition to the bullpen, Cordero, blew two straight saves to Cincinnati as they were swept last night. The Astros have now lost 9 straight games, and are just 34-65 on the season (24-24 at home). A.J. Burnett will take the rubber tonight for Pittsburgh. He is 11-3 on the season with a 3.59 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and .254 opponents batting average. After a couple shaky starts Burnett bounced back nicely with a 7.2 inning effort allowing just 1 earned run against Miami on the 21st. He did have a rough start against Houston, but the Pirates ended up winning that game 8-7. Southpaw Dallas Keuchel will start for Houston and he is 1-2 on the season with a 4.03 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and .257 opponents batting average. He went 5.2 innings against the Pirates two starts ago allowing 7 hits and 4 earned runs. Keuchel has allowed 10 earned runs over 9 innings of work in his last two starts while walking 8 and striking out just 3. In AAA this season he was 6-4 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .271 opponents batting average. Take note that the Astros have given up 4+ runs in 8 of their last 9 games, while scoring more than 3 runs just twice in that span. The Pirates are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 4-1 in their last 5 vs a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30, and 23-6 in their last 29 games as a favorite overall. The Pirates are also 14-3 in Burnett's last 17 starts, and 4-1 in his last 5 road starts. Houston is just 12-42 in their last 54 games overall, 15-37 in their last 52 games following a loss, and 1-4 in Keuchel's last 5 starts. Not much is going right for the Astros right now, while the Pirates continue to win ball games and stay right in the mix of the playoff and even division hunt. Behind their best pitcher this season I like the Pirates to get things done in Houston winning by a few runs.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Mets +155 over ARIZONA
After losing six straight at home, this road trip couldn’t have come at a better time for the New York Mets. It’s not customary for us to wager on cold teams but the price has influence and so does the pitching matchup.
There’s nothing like a talented, highly-touted, rookie pitcher to give the team a psychological lift. Matt Harvey finally gets his much anticipated call from AAA-Buffalo. The Mets number one prospect features four pitches, displaying average to plus results with each. His fastball sits at 94-98MPH with good life. In 56 frames at Buffalo, Harvey struck out 61, had a BA against of .214 and he also had a groundball bias profile. Harvey will face a D-Backs team that is 15-6 at home against southpaws but just 13-15 at home against righties. He’s a righty. The kid can bring it and could develop into a true #1.
Wade Miley has a 3.02 ERA and pinpoint control but he’s certainly hittable. Prior to beating the Astros in his last start, Miley was hit hard in three straight games by the Reds, Dodgers and Milwaukee, allowing 24 hits, five jacks and 15 runs in 18 frames. He won some close games that he just as easily could have lost. He's also been lucky to strand so many runners. Eventually, Miley's pedestrian skills will catch up to him and the good fortune will run out, as will the big prices opposing him. Capitalize while we can.