Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 29,2010

Craig Trapp
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Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5
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Will make this short and sweet the CHW have won 10 in a row at home and are 8-1 overall on the season head to head with the lowly Mariners. Pauley goes for SEA who faced the CHW on 7/19 and gave up 5 runs as CHW cruised to 6-1 win. Garcia goes for CHW and even with a rough last outing we think he is sitting on really good start. Will help that SEA is only 2-9 in last 11 road games hitting under .250 in those games. Easy winner here as the CHW take advantage of a team that is just really bad.

Rob Vinciletti
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Florida Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
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The Gaints qualify in a nice system that plays on certain home favorites off a win where they used 5 or more pitchers. SF has been killing it all month, winning 18 of 25 games thus far. Thye have a solid home bullpen that has a 2.23 era. Their rookie starter Bumgarner has a 2.66 era on the season spanning 6 starts and 40+ innings. Florida has trouble with left handers as they average 3.9 runs per game. Look for the Giants to hook the fish again here today.

BIG AL
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New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: New York Yankees
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The Yankees were originally going to hand the ball to Sergio Mitre for this start, but after Mitre's last start on July 24, they have decided to turn to 28-year-old righthander and former L.A. Angel Dustin Moseley tonight instead. Moseley only has four relief appearances covering less than 11 innings this season for New York, and although he doesn't show a compelling reason that he should be considered as a fifth starter based on that, at least - unlike Mitre - he doesn't show a compelling reason NOT to be considered either. Getting the ball for the Tribe will be righthander Mitch Talbot, and after a very promising start which saw the 26-year-old go 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA midway through May and then 7-4; 3.54 after his first start in June, Talbot has come back to earth considerably since the middle of June, having gone 1-5 in his last seven starts. Talbot looks very much like a young pitcher who is simply wearing down in his first full season as a Major League starter as his ERA has risen to 4.08 and his WHIP is up to almost 1.4. He's probably got the talent to be a successful starter, either for his current team or somewhere else, but he simply may not be ready to go out and throw 100-110 pitches every five days for an entire season. Let's hope for his sake that the Indians, who have no chance to make the postseason, realize this and preserve this youngster's arm at some point. Take the Yankees.

LEE KOSTROSKI

Orioles @ Royals
PICK: Over 9.5
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Brian Matusz is going through a very tough season for the Orioles. At just 23 years old there should be better days ahead, but with a 3-11 record and a 5.22 ERA the Orioles may be doing more harm than good by letting him get pummeled start after start. In his last nine innings Matusz has allowed 13 runs and Matusz owns a 1-9 record in night games. Matusz will face a Royals team that hits left-handed pitching well, batting .294 in home games versus southpaws. Matusz also gets very little help from a struggling Baltimore bullpen that has endured some long recent outings.
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Kansas City has faced a very tough schedule of late and the losses are piling up with a 3-14 record in the last 17 games. Despite the losses, ten times the Royals have scored at least four runs and Kansas City owns a strong team batting average for the season at .280. Offense has not been the main issue for the Royals, rather the pitching staff owns most of the blame and the Royals have also struggled defensively. The Royals have amazingly allowed 88 runs in the past ten games and not surprisingly the ‘over’ is on a nice recent run in Kansas City games.
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Kyle Davies beat the Yankees in New York in his last start but he allowed four runs, including three home runs and was quite fortunate to pick up the win. The Royals are actually 4-0 in the last four Davies starts but overall this season has been a tough one for the right-hander. In nine of his last ten starts, opponents have scored three or more runs against Davies and in that span he has allowed 29 walks. The ‘under’ has been successful in Davies starts this season despite his 5.11 ERA at Kauffman Stadium and a slightly lower than deserved total should be featured in this match-up based on questions with the offensive capability of these squads.
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The first games of a series have generally been high-scoring affairs for the Royals with the ‘over’ hitting in 19 of the last 27 Thursday games. Kansas City owns a 4.99 team ERA at home while the offense is batting .288. Kansas City actually owns a near winning record in game 1 match-ups going 16-17 so the offense should be able to produce some runs. The ‘over’ hit in three of four meetings between these teams in Kansas City last season and while much is being made about the record setting run totals the Royals have allowed in the past week, Baltimore has also allowed 74 runs in the past ten games. In a match-up of two struggling clubs, offense should prevail.

Jack Jones

Oakland A's +175
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The Oakland A's are a very feisty team. They don't have many big names, but they simply continue getting the job done. Oakland currently sits at 51-49 on the season after last night's 3-1 victory over the Rangers, and they continue playing hungry baseball tonight knowing they must win this series with Texas to gain some ground on them in the AL West. Starter Vin Mazzaro has gone under the radar this season, and as a starter he is 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.200 WHIP. In 5 road starts, Mazzaro is 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA this year as well.
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Mazzaro's numbers are very comparable to C.J. Wilson's to this point, making this value on Oakland through the roof in this game. Oakland is a very profitable 23-26 against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons. The A's are 10-3 in their last 13 games overall, including 5-1 as an underdog during that stretch. They have also won 4 of Mazzaro's last 5 starts overall, and 7 of his last 10 road starts. Texas is 0-4 in their last 4 during Game 3 of a series. Bet the A's Thursday.

Black Widow
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1* on Baltimore Orioles +123
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We'll take the Orioles behind the better starter tonight in Brian Matusz. This is really a meaningless game for each team considering Baltimore is out of the race in the East and Kansas City is done for in the Central. So in games like these, it's all about starting pitching. Matusz has flashed signs of brilliance this season, recently pitching 7 shutout innings at Boston and 1-run ball at San Diego. Matusz has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 10 starts overall. Meanwhile, Royals starter Kyle Davies has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 7 of his last 10 starts. The wrong team is favored in this one folks. Take the Orioles on the Money Line.

Info Plays

3* on Colorado Rockies -1.5 -130
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Reasons the Rockies win by 2 runs or more:
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1.) Ubaldo Jimenez. Coming off his worst start of 2010, we expect a solid bounce-back effort from Jimenez. That can be expected considering the Rockies are 11-1 in Jimenez's last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
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2.) The Pirates are 13-59 in their last 72 games as an underdog of +201 or greater, while the Rockies are 8-1 in Jimenez's last 9 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater. It's basically a no-brainer that they will win, and chances are high that they prove victorious by 2 runs or more today. Bet Colorado on the Run Line at home.

JIM FEIST
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MARLINS / GIANTS
TAKE UNDER
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These teams combined for 19 runs and 28 hits on Wednesday. That's pretty rare considering both teams have decent staffs, especially San Francisco which allows the second least runs per game in the NL (3.61) and the third best team ERA (3.39). Typically when two teams just go wild like they did on Wednesday, I like to come back with the UNDER the next day. And, that's exactly what I'm doing here on Thursday. The Giants send possibly their hottest pitcher to the mound in Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is 3-0 his last three starts with a very nifty 1.93 ERA, five walks and 16 KO's. Anibal Sanchez will take the mound for the fish and he's had a solid season with a 7-6 record and 3.59 ERA. San Francisco's AT&T Park is rated as the toughest hitter park in baseball. I'm sticking UNDER here on Thursday.

EZWINNERS
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Rockies -281
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The Colorado Rockies ace pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off of his worst start of the season in his last game at Philadelphia. Jimenez will bounce back and be his dominate self in this game against the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have had no success against Jimenez in this past and they won't start having success today. This is a huge line on this game so I would suggest using it for some added value in a parlay. Play on the Rockies.

Ross Benjamin
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Florida vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco
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The San Francisco rookie starter Bumgarner looks to be the real deal. He's 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a 1.49 ERA. The Giants are a red-hot 18-5 in their last 23 overall, 10-1 in the last 11 versus a starter with a greater than 1.30 WHIP, and 10-1 in the last 11 in Game 4 of a series. The Florida starter Annibal Sanchez enters today in bad form off of his last 4-starts posting a lofty 5.32 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. Sanchez is 8-18 in his last 26 team-starts on the road. Play on the San Francisco Giants as my free selection of the day.

Karl Garrett

For Thursday afternoon, another total free play winner, as the Braves and Nationals stay under the total once again.

Both Derek Lowe and Scott Olsen are quite capable of going out there on this hot summer day in the nation's capital and hanging some circles on that scoreboard.

Thus far the first 2 games in this series have played under the posted total, and for the year, the teams are 5-1-2 under the posted total in their 8 games contested.

The teams are on a protracted 10-3-1 under clip the last 14 meetings in D.C., and after playing a night game last night and turning around and playing an early afternoon game today, the G-Man will stick with the trends and play under the posted total in the series finale.

4♦ UNDER

Chuck O'Brien

Thursday’s complimentary release comes in late-afternoon action from San Diego, as I’ll take the Padres over the Dodgers.

Hard to pass up San Diego’s Mat Latos at this reasonable price at home. The rookie right-hander is 11-4 with a 2.48 ERA 18 starts, including 10-2 with a 1.66 ERA in 14 starts since May 1. In those 14 games, Latos has surrendered just 17 runs in 92 1/3 innings, including eight earned runs in 32 2/3 innings at home (2.20 ERA).

Most importantly, check out the Padres’ record since May 7 with Latos starting: 11 wins and two losses, including seven victories in a row. And in those seven games, Latos has surrendered the following runs: 2, 0, 0, 1, 0, 2 and 2.

Yes, Dodgers starter Vicente Padilla is on a roll himself, giving up five runs (four earned) in his last six starts spanning 41 1/3 innings (0.87 ERA). However, Los Angeles only managed to split those six games. Also, it should be noted that Padilla has been a completely different pitcher away from home (1-1, 4.91 ERA in six starts, with the Dodgers going 1-5) than in L.A. (3-2, 2.02 ERA in five starts).

San Diego has won nine of 12 overall, including seven of eight at home, while the Dodgers have dropped five of six on the road and five straight as an underdog.

One last thing: The Padres have a favorable umpire in this game, as they’re 7-0 the last seven times Brian O’Nora has been behind home plate. Also, the home team is 25-11 in O’Nora’s last 36 contests behind the dish.

3♦ SAN DIEGO

Bobby Maxwell

I got the FREE winner on Wednesday with the Red Sox as they took down the Angels in Anaheim and improved my comp record to 125-113-3. Today, I have freebie on the Padres as they host the Dodgers in the finale of this three-game series.

It’s the rubber match of this big three-game series in San Diego between these rivals and I’m going with the better pitcher in this game in young Padres’ right-hander Mat Latos (11-4, 2.48 ERA).

The Dodgers took the opener of this one on Tuesday, 2-0, then San Diego won Wednesday’s contest, 6-1. The win snapped a four-game home losing streak the Padres had to the Dodgers in San Diego.

Latos has been San Diego’s best pitcher this season and he has a 3-0 record in his last three starts with a 0.86 ERA. He’s allowed just two runs in his last 21 innings, striking out 22 and walking just four. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in seven straight starts and on Saturday he held the Pirates to two runs in six innings of a 9-2 Padres victory in Pittsburgh. His last home start was July 2 when he threw eight innings of shutout ball against the Astros, allowing four hits in the 3-0 win.

Vicente Padilla (4-3, 3.41 ERA) has pitched well lately for the Dodgers, even though they have lost his last two outings. He gave up two runs to the Mets on Friday and Los Angeles fell 6-1 at home. His last start against the Padres came in June of 2006 when he gave up four runs in 5.1 innings of a 6-5 loss.

The Dodgers offense has really struggled lately and they have scored two runs or less in eight of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, San Diego has managed five runs or more in eight of its last 11.

Los Angeles is on slides of 1-6 when Padilla starts on the road, 1-5 in their last six roadies and 0-5 when they are an underdog. The Padres are on several positive runs, including 7-0 as a home favorite, 7-1 in the third game of a series, 7-1 at home, 9-3 overall, 39-18 as a favorite, 7-0 in Latos’ last seven outings and 4-1 when he’s a home chalk.

Look for San Diego to win this one and Latos to deliver a gem. Play the Padres.

4♦ SAN DIEGO

Tom Freese
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Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
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Kansas City starter Kyle Davies is 11-8 in his team starts this year. The Royals are 5-2 their last 7 Thursday games. Davies is 7-3 his last 10 starts as a home favorite and he is 4-0 his last 4 starts. Davies is 6-0 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Davies is 5-0 vs. AL East teams. Baltimore starter Brian Matusz is 5-15 in 20 starts this year. In his last 3 starts Matusz has allowed 13 runs in 9.2 innings of work. The Orioles are 30-74 their last 104 games as underdogs and they are 14-47 their last 61 road games.