BRETT ATKINS
Scored the free winner on Wednesday when the Braves took down the Nationals in Washington. Tonight, I'm deliering another comp winner with the Royals as they host the Orioles in Kansas City.
I know this is an ugly matchup, but this is an easy winner as you’ve got to go with the home team Royals behind right-hander Kyle Davies.
Baltimore has lost five in a row and they come in on slides of 13-47 in series openers, 14-46 on the road and 16-38 overall, and with lefty Brian Matusz on the hill, the Orioles are on skids of 3-14 in his last 17, 3-10 when he’s an underdog and 2-8 when he starts on the road. Matusz is 0-2 in his last three outings with a 12.10 ERA.
For Kansas City, the Royals have won Davies’ last four starts, including his last home start on July 19 when he held the Blue Jays to three runs in seven innings of a 5-4 win. He also beat the Orioles back on May 17 when he limited them to six runs in a 4-3 win in Baltimore. In Davies’ four career starts against the Orioles, his teams are 3-1.
Play Kansas City in this one!
3♦ KANSAS CITY
JEFF BENTON
Still on a 108-76-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away, despite missing badly with the Indians last night. For Thursday, we’ll head to Tropicana Field and back the Rays on the run line (-1½ runs) over Detroit in an afternoon clash.
I know Tampa Bay lefty David Price has come back to earth a little bit lately, going 2-1 with a 5.49 ERA in his last three starts, but that ERA is misleading because in the one loss, Price got torched at Yankee Stadium, giving up seven runs in five innings (falling 9-5). Aside from that start and his only other poor outing (five runs allowed in five innings at Houston), Price has given up three earned runs or fewer in each of his other 17 starts, pitching at least six innings 15 times in 19 starts.
Overall, Price’s numbers are still stellar. He’s 13-5 with 2.90 ERA, including 6-1 with a 2.04 ERA at Tropicana Field. How dominant has Price been at home? He’s got nearly as many strikeouts (51) as hits and walks allowed (61) in 57 1/3 innings. And in his only previous start against the Tigers, Price allowed a run on five hits and one walk in 7 1/3 innings cruising to a 3-1 road win.
Detroit counters Price with Rick Porcello, who has been solid in two starts since returning from a month-long demotion Triple-A, giving up four runs in 14 innings. However, the Tigers came up short in both games, losing 2-1 at Cleveland and 3-2 at home to Toronto. So Detroit is 5-10 with Porcello starting this season, including an ongoing four-game losing skid. And Porcello has been a mess on the road this year, going 1-4 with a 7.55 ERA in six starts (Detroit is 1-5).
Then again, the Tigers’ road woes aren’t limited to Porcello. Detroit has lost nine straight road games and 21 of 27 on the highway. Overall, the Tigers are just 3-12 in their last 15 games (including eight multiple-run losses). On the flip side, Tampa Bay has won 18 of 24 overall (including five in a row), 14 of 17 as a favorite and 17 of 23 behind Price.
5♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5
JOEL TYSON
At just 16-32 on the road this year, and with more injuries than a MASH unit, I can make no case for the Detroit Tigers right now.
Tampa Bay has won the first 3 games of this 4 game set, and they have now won 7 of their last 10 at home against the Tigers overall.
Going with the Rays on the RUN LINE to complete the sweep behind All-Star David Price.
Price is only 13-5 for the year with a 2.90 ERA. At home he is a solid 6-1 with an ERA even lower at 2.04.
Rick Porcello has struggled all season away from home, sporting a 1-4 road mark and a road ERA of 7.55.
Rays take this one comfortably.
Play Tampa on the RUN LINE to get your Thursday started.
4♦ TAMPA BAY -1.5
Steve Merril
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Braves @ Nationals
PICK: Over 8.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Washington’s Scott Olsen makes his return from the DL on Thursday when the Nationals host the Braves. Olsen is 2-2 with a 3.77 ERA in eight starts this season. At home, he has struggled giving up 12 runs and 21 hits in four starts there. Olsen is a mixed bag against Atlanta. Earlier this season, he held them to two hits in 7.3 innings pitched in Washington. But his career numbers show him at 3-5 with a 5.73 ERA in 13 career starts against the Braves. Chipper Jones (13-28), Matt Diaz (11-28), Brian McCann (6-23), Martin Prado (5-12), and Omar Infante (3-11) all have good numbers against the lefties. As a team, Atlanta has gone Over the total in 17 of their 33 games against southpaws and Over the total in 19 of their 33 daytime games; they are hitting .277 in the daytime scoring 5.6 runs per game. They've also gone Over in 8 of their last 11 games.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Atlanta’s Derek Lowe has struggled from time to time this season. On the road, the righty is 3-5 with a 4.78 ERA in 11 starts this season. He lost to Washington in Atlanta already this season giving up four runs and eight hits in 5.7 innings of work. That's his second straight loss to the Nationals as Ryan Zimmerman (10-36), Cristian Guzman (12-32), Adam Kennedy (13-32), Nyjer Morgan (9-16), Alberto Gonzalez (5-11), Ian Desmond (2-4), and Michael Morse (1-3) all smack Lowe around. The Nationals hit over .275 as a team at home this season, and with their previous success against Lowe, we expect the Nationals to score plenty of runs here making this a high-scoring game.
John Ryan
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
5* graded play on Washington as they host Atlanta set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a significant probability that Washington will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-15 making 21.2 units since 2004. Play on home teams batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games and with a tired bullpen after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings. Contrarian system indeed, but this what occurs in baseball so often. Washington is a solid 17-5 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 14-8 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Washington starter Olsen is a strong 28-18 (+14.4 Units) against the money line versus poor base running teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game since 1997. Braves bullpen is doig a nice job, but that alone does not win games. They are 2-11 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. Plus, Washington is 11-3 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in home games with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Nationals.
Sac Lawson
WAS / ATL Over 8.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This is a 1.5 unit free play
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Which is semi-rare. But, Scott Olsen was really not impressive in his rehab starts in the minor league's, and just as we faded Jorge De La Rosa a few weeks back in his first game off the DL, you've simply got to look for spots where a pitcher is coming off a long layoff (month or longer), and didn't do well in his rehab starts. Those rehab starts can be very telling. I do not expect Olsen to pitch well today, plain n simple.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
On the other hand, Derek Lowe is just 4-5 in his last 11 starts against the Nationals, and he certainly hasn't shown a ton of success on the road this season. His ERA is approaching the 5.0 mark, and this Nationals lineup can definitely plate runs at home. Lowe is certainly not a lock for a great performance.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Then, you've got the telling factor that makes this more than just a 1 unit freebie... Mike Reilly. The umpire of today's game is known as an OVER umpire in almost all betting circles you'll find. He's 14-6 O/U this year, and almost 60% OVERS over the last two seasons combined. The guy has a small zone, and with both of these starters today not necessarily being sharpshooters, for lack of a better word, I can see him squeezing both of them over the middle of the plate after falling behind in counts. Point being, Reilly likes runs, Olsen is not back in good form, and Lowe is bad on the road. Lock in the OVER!
JR O'Donnell
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
WAS / ATL Over 8.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Let's rock the sports world and go Over early Atlanta/Washington as this is a huge JR O gut play as we feel that the ball will be flying out of the Nationals park today, The Express is not in love with either hurler this afternoon and the D. LOWE / S. OLSON SHOW = Fireworks! Looking at some solid #'s the Nat's are 7-2 home over in this spot and the Bravos bats wake up early today.
Jimmy Boyd
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on Kansas City Royals -129
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Royals are worthy of a small play with Davies on the hill. KC has won each of his last 4 starts, including a win against the Yankees his last time out. Plus, the Royals are 4-0 in Davies' last 4 series opening starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus the American League East. The Orioles are just 14-47 in their last 61 road games, and they don't appear to be in good hands with Matusz on the mound this evening. In fact, the Orioles are 3-14 in Matusz's last 17 starts, 1-7 in his last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-4 in his last 5 starts versus the American League Central. Take the Royals.
SPORTS WAGERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
MONTREAL –10 over Toronto
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Argos have already matched last year’s win total with three and have surpassed the win total many predicted for them this year. No doubt the Argos are this year’s surprise team and they’re going in the right direction but this looks like a major letdown week. You see, the Argos have played four very close and intense games and that takes its toll. In week one they lost by 14 in Calgary but make no mistake, the game was very close throughout. In week 2 they beat Winnipeg by two, followed by fourth quarter comebacks against Calgary and last week against B.C, when a pick-6 by Byron Parker with under three minutes to go put the Argos up by four. Cleo Lemon is last in the CFL in pass completions and despite the 3-1 record, the Argos have allowed more points than they’ve scored. They’ve caught every single team at the right time and they may also have caught teams taking them a bit too lightly. So, while the Argos deserve a lot of credit the fact is they’re out of its class here. The Als are an offensive juggernaut and you can double that when they play at home. This is a good situation for the Als in that they’ve finally had a full week to prepare after a difficult three-game trip to open the season. The Als, too, are 3-1 but they have not come close to peaking yet. Even in its 37-14 win over Hamilton last week, they used seven FG’s to score 21 points and had they been sharp they would’ve scored a major on at least half of those. Well, the Als have now been home for two weeks with a comfortable routine and it’s worth noting that beating the Argos gives them great pleasure. No, check that, beating them is not satisfying enough, ruining them is. Expect the Argos bubble to burst in the what is the perfect set-up for the Als, that being first place in the East is up for grabs and the Argos are simply not a legit first-place team. Play: Montreal –10 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
David Malinsky
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
CHICAGO WHITE SOX over SEATTLE
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
So often in order to beat the game we have to delve deeply into “Why” aspects of the equations, finding the subtle edges that have not been factored into the line properly. But every once in a while it is simply “Why Not?”. After cashing with the White Sox in this series the last two nights, and against the Mariners regularly in this kind of setting all season, it is just more of the same here.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Let’s recap the basics. The Mariners are now 6-27 in road games this season when Felix Hernandez or Cliff Lee was not the starting pitcher. In 23 games against winning teams on the road they have been out-scored by 74 runs. The offense is simply abysmal, with no real hope of getting any better, and when they left the field last night Ichiro Suzuki was the only one hitting better than .262. they have been out-scored 23-6 so far in this series, and yet we still get a more than fair price point. That can be an indication of market respect for David Pauley’s 2.18 ERA over three starts, but Pauley is a 27-year old journeyman who was limping along to a 1-6/3.68 at AAA (even in Tacoma the Mariners lack offense), with unimpressive K rates or ground ball rates. All three of his starts so far have been in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, but now he takes to the road for the first time, against an opponent that is getting a second look (the White Sox scored three runs on eight hits over 6 IP in Seattle against him).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
While the Mariners fade away, Chicago has done a tremendous job of taking care of business – the White Sox are 17-1 surge in their last 18 homes games, and 17-4 in their last 21 against losing teams either home or away. And while the markets downgrade Freddy Garcia off of his worst outing of the season, we instead see opportunity with a guy that brings the veteran moxie to bounce back well from such a dismal showing. He checked the Mariners on just two hits over seven IP in an earlier win from this mound, and brings the command of the strike zone that we love against weak offenses – force them to make things happen with their splintered lumber, and the 0’s pile up. A first rate bullpen also has no fatigue issues for the latter stages.
Stan Lisowski
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
San Diego
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Padres are 13-5 with Latos on the mound while he has a sterling 2.48 ERA on the season. San Diego is 30-13 as a favorite this year and have had a fairly strong month of July standing 13-8. The Dodgers have gone 7 straight games scoring 3 runs or less as their offense continues to struggle. With Padilla as their starter, LA is 4-7 in those games.
Insider Angles
Seattle vs. Chi White Sox
Freddy Garcia of the Chicago White Sox is finally starting to show his age lately, while young David Pauley of the Seattle Mariners is already facing the White Sox for the second time since his call-up, which is probably not a good thing for him.
Garcia began the season as a Comeback Player of the Year candidate and he is still 9-4, but he has watched he ERA rise to 4.74 and his WHIP mushroom to 1.44 in his recent starts. He was simply terrible vs. the normally light-hitting Oakland Athletics in his last start, failing to get out of the second inning while getting lit up for five earned runs on six hits and three walks in just 1.1 frames.
Now Pauley has not been terrible in his three Major League starts since making his debut on July 9, and he does have a 2.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 20.2 innings despite being 0-2. However, he is not exactly regarded as a blue-chip prospect, and his brief success thus far has more to do with teams facing him for the first time.
That will not be the case here however, as the second of his three starts came vs. these White Sox in Seattle, and although he allowed only three earned runs in six innings, the eight hits he surrendered were the most he allowed in any start. Chicago figures to improve on those numbers too facing Pauley for a second time, especially when you consider that this is his first start on the road.
This seems like a relatively low total for an American League game that would require both pitchers to be on top of their game to ensure this game doesn’t go Over, and we simply do not see both hurlers shining in this spot.
Pick: Mariners, White Sox Over 8.5
Sam Martin
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: New York Yankees
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
All eyes will be on A-Rod, who is still searching for his 600th home run, but regardless of his gets it or not we like the Yankees to win here. Dustin Moseley will be making his first start of the season for the Pinstripes, and he couldn't pick a better team to face as Cleveland has scored more than three runs only once in their last eight games. Yankees offense prevails! 5* Play on NY Yankees.
Matt Fargo
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
St Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Play on: New York Mets
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Mets lost a tough one last night as they fought back from a 6-0 first inning deficit only to lose in extra innings. This is a great opportunity to win the series as they have a clear pitching matchup advantage. St. Louis is now only 22-29 on the road and the near blown game last night shows how bad of a season it has been on the road. The Cardinals are still tied with Cincinnati for first place in the National League Central so this is a big game for them as well but there are too many edges the other way. R.A. Dickey gets my vote for comeback player of the year as he has posted a 2.55 ERA in 13 starts. The suddenly anemic Mets offense has wasted an impressive five-start streak for Dickey, who has gone 0-3 despite posting a 1.89 ERA and never allowing more than three runs in any one outing. His strikeout to walk ratio is 22:7 over that stretch. St. Louis counters with Blake Hawksworth who has been up and down and unfortunately for him, mostly down. He has just one quality outing in seven starts and that happened to come at home against Milwaukee. In five road starts, he has a 5.50 ERA and 1.78 WHIP and despite solid run support, the Cardinals are only 2-3 in those games. St. Louis is just 4-10 this season following a one-run win while going 8-17 on the road against teams with a winning record. The Mets meanwhile are 10-3 this season following a 10-game stretch of hitting .240 or worse. 3* New York Mets
SEAN MURPHY
Toronto @ Montreal
PICK: Under 53
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Montreal Alouettes are playing outstanding defensive football right now. They've allowed a grand total of just 26 points over their last nine quarters of action, and not surprisingly, the under has cashed in their last two games.
The majority of bettors are rolling the dice with the over, just as they did when the Als hosted the Tiger-Cats last Thursday. That game stayed under the posted total, and I expect a similar story to unfold this week.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Toronto's offense remains very much a work-in-progress. The Argos have scored at least 24 points in each of their last three games, but the majority of that offense has come as a result of turnovers by their opposition. They can't count on that this week, as the Als are one of the most fundamentally-sound teams in the league, and simply don't turn the ball over.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Argos head coach Jim Barker has been around for a long time, and knows that he can't have his quarterback, Cleo Lemon, slinging the ball all over the field if he wants to be successful tonight. Lemon has completed just 59% of his passes while throwing three touchdowns compared to four interceptions in his first four CFL games. Look for the Argos to rely heavily on the legs of RB Cory Boyd, the league's leading rusher so far this season.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Alouettes still have a few kinks to work out in their offense as well, as evidenced by their eight field goal attempts last week. We did see Anthony Calvillo get into rhythm with his receivers in the fourth quarter against Hamilton, but that was after the Ti-Cats defense was already worn down. Calvillo will face a challenge against an Argos pass defense that has allowed just under eight yards per pass this season.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Argos scored just 49 points in four meetings with the Alouettes last season. They're a much better team here in 2010, so don't expect them to be shutout as they were in their lone matchup here at Percival Molson Stadium last year. With that being said, I do expect a defensive tone to be set early in this one, as both teams bring excellent form to the table in that regard. Take the under.