Matt Rivers
For Thursday take a stab with the fairly non-Athletic Athletics in Beantown.
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Of course I can't say that I truly believe Gio Gonzalez and the A's are going to beat Jon Lester and the far superior Red Sox but in a very very small play with the way Gonzalez just pitched at Yankee Stadium I can't help but take Oakland in such a hefty underdog role. Let me just state that this is thee lowest rated play that I could ever give out but there's still enough to give this the green light.
Oakland was not a good team with Matt Holliday and now without the slugger is certainly not going to be anything but even worse. But it's not like the Red Sox have been taking care of business of late as they have lost game after game and watched the Yankees take complete control of the AL East. You just saw Jonathan Papelbon and some horrific defense somehow blow that game on Tuesday, then crap on themselves again on Wednesday and right now Terry Francona's team is certainly in a bit of a down mode and lacking some confidence.
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Lester has great stuff and can be great unlike Gonzalez who probably just had the start of his life in the win against the Big Bad Bombers at the Stadium but Lester has been hit at times this season and I just feel that we have absolutely nothing to lose here at this price.
We are going to need somebody who is fairly mediocre like Hairston or Kennedy or Cust to step up today against the Boston Southpaw, which may not happen, but at this price I'm willing to take my chances that it just may.
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Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Big Papi, Varitek and the Sox overall are just not that scary right now and therefore are laying too freakin' much, win or lose, period!
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1♦ A's
Craig Davis
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Today's free play winner is on the Boston Red Sox, on the run line, to save a little face and keep pace with the Yankees in the AL East. Don't look now, but the Red Sox (who were in first place much of the year) are now three-and-a-half games behind the Yankees and need to figure out a way to beat teams with losing records. Jon Lester (at home) is just what the doctor ordered. If you'll remember, Lester beat Baltimore last Saturday, 7-2, as my second straight 100-dime winner of the season. I know this guy. I know what he can do against lesser teams when he's pitching at Fenway. Lester will give the Red Sox at least seven solid innings... and by that point the game should be well in hand. You see, Boston bats get to face Gio Gonzalez, a pitcher sporting a 7.75 ERA who not too long ago allowed 11 earned runs in under 3 innings of work to Minnesota. Folks, if the Twins can pound Gonzalez like that, surely the Red Sox can scratch across a few. Boston wins this thing by at least four.
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3♦ BOSTON -1 1/2
Scott Spreitzer
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New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox
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I'm playing the White Sox on Thursday. Andy Pettitte is struggling right now. He's been knocked around for 17 earned runs in his last four starts, (Yanks are 1-3), spanning 24 IP, for a 6.38 ERA. Pettitte has been bombed in his last two road starts and he's been downright horrible at U.S. Cellular. Pettitte is 3-7 in 11 career starts in this park, allowing 44 earned runs and 103 base runners in 58 IP. That's a hefty, 6.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, to go along with a .313 BAA. The White Sox should get to him again, averaging 5.2 rpg in home night games against lefthanders. The Sox will counter with Gavin Floyd. Chicago is on a 7-0 run in Floyd's home starts. He's been on fire in those games, sporting a ridiculous, 1.69 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The matchups are in the "southsiders" favor tonight and I expect them to breakout of their skid, at least temporarily. I'm playing the White Sox on Thursday.
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Play on: Chicago White Sox
LT Profits
St. Louis Cardinals -110
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The St. Louis Cardinals won their third straight game vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers last night 3-2 in extra innings, and we look for the Redbirds to finish off a seemingly improbable four-game sweep tonight.
Sure, Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse has an ugly 5.62 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over his last three starts, but all three of those outings came on the road and he has pitched much, much better here at home this season. In fact, he is 4-3 with a very nice 3.20 ERA and an excellent 1.07 WHIP in seven starts at Busch Stadium in 2009, covering 39.1 innings. Prior to his recent road skid, he allowed a total of one run and eight hits in his previous two starts at home.
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Hiroki Kuroda has been a disappointing weak spot in the Dodgers rotation, as he has a losing 3-5 record with a rather high 4.57 ERA, a figure that rises to 4.99 on the road. He is facing a St. Louis lineup that has been pummeling right-handed pitchers lately, batting a robust .303 against them over the last 10 games. St. Louis has also picked up the pace here at home after a slow start, going 7-1 in their last eight games.
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We look for the Cardinals to stay hot here and for the Dodgers to stay cold, especially at this modest price at home.
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Pick: Cardinals -110
Matt Fargo
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Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets GM2
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The Mets had their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday but not because of a loss but because of a rainout. They will look to continue that run in the afternoon in the first game of Thursday?s doubleheader behind Johan Santana. We will be looking at Game Two which will start tonight at 7:10 ET. New York had been in a horrible slump and a lot of that was to blame on the offense as scoring was becoming a chore. During this recent run however, the Mets have averaged 7.3 rpg and three of those games have seen the offense hit .324 or better. They look to continue that against Jorge De La Rosa who is having a solid season. He has run off five straight quality starts and this is precisely the time to go against that run. The last four have come at home and the lone road quality outing came against the feeble A?s offense. He has been fortunate to catch some easy home games as two came against Arizona, who has one of the worse offenses in baseball, another against Washington, who is awful and the last came against San Francisco who is not a good team when hitting the road. This is his first ever start against the Mets and that is an advantage for him but he will be facing a hot offense for the first time in quite a while. He will be opposed by Jonathon Niese who has put together two very good starts in his three outings with the Mets this season. He was recalled recently to take the spot of Fernando Nieve in the rotation and he shined with a quality performance against the Astros in Houston as he allowed just one run on four hits in seven innings in a 10-3 New York rout. Colorado is having trouble scoring runs of late and being favored in this spot is pretty aggressive. The Rockies are 1-4 in their last five road games against a left-handed starter while the Mets have owned this series, winning 24 of the last 29 meetings in New York leading up to Thursday?s twin-bill. Look for the Mets to continue their possible final surge of the season.
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3* New York Mets
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
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Milwaukee snapped Washington's four-game winning streak last night and I like the Brew Crew to build off that win with an even more impressive performance this afternoon. The Nationals are just 2-8 in their last 10 meetings in Milwaukee, 11-50 in their last 61 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and a pathetic 27-81 in their last 108 games following a loss. The Beer Makers have the big advantage tonight with Gallardo on the hill as he enters this matchup with a 3.03 home ERA and is coming off a brilliant shut out performance against Atlanta. The Brewers are 7-3 in Gallardo's last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 24-5 in their last 29 games as a favorite of -201 or greater. Bet the Brewers on the run line for a unit.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
301 - 196 run 60 % 49-26 run here
Thurs Braves
8)
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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TEX (-150) vs SEA
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Texas (56-43) hopes to slow Ken Griffey again as it tries to rebound from a 13-5 loss to Detroit on Wednesday night. It had won eight of its previous nine. Garrett Olson (3-4, 5.37 ERA) will start for the Mariners. The left-hander has a 2.76 ERA in 10 relief appearances, but a 6.24 ERA in 10 starts this season. In his last start July 21 at Detroit, he was tagged for seven runs in 1 1-3 innings of a 9-7 defeat. The Rangers will counter with rookie left-hander Derek Holland (3-6, 6.13),who is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in three relief appearances against the Mariners. Look for TEXAS to improve to 31-29 (+5 units) when playing against a team with a winning record!
Jimmy The Moose
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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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Reds look to even up this 4 game series vs the Padres. SD just 3-14 last 17 games following a win and are 20 games below on the road. Padres send Stauffer to the mound who has yet to win this season. Cueto struggling for the Reds as well this season at just 8-7 but face a Padres team only hitting .254 on the road. Play on Cincinnati -.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
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The Rangers have won eight of their last 10 games and are inching their way closer to the Angels who hold a 3.5-game lead in the AL West. Seattle starter Garrett Olson lasted just 1 and 1/3 innings in his last start allowing seven runs on five hits and three walks. His lone start against Texas in his career was not a pretty one either as he allowed six runs in five innings. Texas has won 18 of 26 division games this season. Go with Texas.
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Play on: Texas
Rocketman Sports
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G1 Colorado Rockie vs. G1 New York Mets
Play: G1 New York Mets
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NY Mets are 5-1 this year after shutting out their opponent. NY Mets have now won 4 in a row. NY Mets bullpen has a 3.61 ERA overall this year and a 3.26 ERA at home this season. Jason Hammel is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA his last 3 starts. Johan Santana is 11-8 with a 3.12 ERA overall this year, 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA his last 3 starts. NY Mets are 7-1 at home vs Colorado the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Mets today!
Freddy Wills
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Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
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Let's start by saying the Nationals have lost 36 road games this year of those thirty six, 77.8% of them have come by more than one run! Make no mistake the Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 but they face a tough RHP today that they have never faced before with the exception of a few players who have been traded to the Nationals like Morgan who is 1-11 in his time with the Pirates. As a team combined they are 2-20 vs. Gallardo. More on Gallardo here he has a 3.09 ERA and has been consistent at home and on the road with an ERA at home of 3.03. During day starts he has flat out dominated with a 2.36ERA. His main issue is walking batters and that is the only way the Nationals will get to him. My one worry here and is the reason why I'm not taking this as a POD is the Nationals are ranked 2nd in the NL and 5th overall in taking walks. Don't think the Brewers don't know this and I expect Gallardo to go right after these guys. Note the Nats are also 7th in the league in strikeouts so that evens out. Nationals are 11-50 in their last 61 road games vs. a RH starter. J.D. Martin will make his 1st road start of his career and he'll face some intimidating hitters in Fielder and Braun to name a few. Brewers have been hitting RHP well as of late .314avg L5 and .291 L10 games. I expect them to be patient and get to the young RHP who lasted just 4IP giving up 5ER against the Mets in his 1st start.
The Spread
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, 10:15PM ET
Philadelphia is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Pick: San Francisco
Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:15PM ET
LA Dodgers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Pick: St. Louis
New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, 8:11PM ET
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games
Pick: New York
Mike Rose
Chicago Cubs -200
Russ Ortiz 13th start of the season is a huge one for Houston as its bullpen has been used and abused throughout this series. He got pounded his last time out against the NY Mets getting lit up for five hits and six ERs through just 4.1 innings of the 10-3 home loss. If his L/3 starts are any indicator, Ortiz is running out of gas as he went 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA & 1.80 WHIP allowing 16 hits and 12 ERs through just 13.1 total innings of work. His longest outing in his L/4 starts is just six innings, and even that won be good enough in this spot considering how bad of shape his clubs bullpens in. Hes already faced the Cubs twice this season, and in his career, hes 4-6 with a 5.09 ERA in 13 starts vs. Chicago.
Opposing Houstons veteran will be rookie Kevin Hart who will be making his fourth start of the season. Originally thought to be headed back to Triple-A with the return of Ryan Dempster, the righty has stuck on the big league roster due to Ted Lillys injury. The righty comes off the best effort of his young career his last time out against Cincinnati where he limited the Reds to five hits and one run with a K/BB ratio of 4/1 through six innings of the Cubs 5-3 home victory. He said he found his groove in the start and looks forward to utilizing all his pitches once again in this outing.
Houston is in really bad shape right now. Players are dropping like flies and the bullpen has been severely taxed throughout this series. Chicago is white hot and not to be faded right now. Theyre hitting everything in sight and playing with extreme confidence. With each teams mind frames on completely opposite sides of the spectrum, I recommend a nice sized play on Chicago to win the series this afternoon regardless of the amount of chalk forced to eat. Cubs roll and keep the heat on St. Louis!!!
Tom Freese
Atlanta at Florida
Atlanta is 6-0 off a loss and they are 6-1 their last 7 games as favorites. The Braves are 11-5 vs. NL East teams and they are 13-5 their 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. Florida is 3-12 their 15 games as home underdogs and they are 4-17 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Marlins are 4-9 vs. winning teams and they are 2-6 with Rick Vanden Hurk vs. winning teams. PLAY ON ATLANTA -