Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 4

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. BC LionsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both of these teams were involved in high-scoring season openers last week, with the Argos pulling out a wild, come-from-behind 39-34 win over the Ti-Cats and the Lions getting thumped 44-32 in Calgary.
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I expect things to settle down a little bit this week, as both defenses bounce back at B.C. Place.
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Toronto has undergone plenty of changes on the defensive side of the football since hoisting the Grey Cup last fall, but the cupboard isn't bare by any means. Perhaps not surprisingly, we saw the Argos get off to a slow start last week, allowing 31 first quarter points against Hamilton. However, they answered the bell in the second half, holding the Ti-Cats to only three points, and I look for that performance to carry over into this week's contest.
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The Lions are regarded as one of, if not the best defensive team in the CFL but they were absolutely crushed by a game Stampeders squad in an emotional tilt in Calgary last Thursday. I don't think it's asking a lot for them to pull up their socks and perform better in their home opener this week - even against the defending champs.
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Note that B.C. held Toronto to a combined 32 points in two meetings last season. The Lions allowed fewer than 20 points in five of nine regular season home games.
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It's also worth noting that last year's meeting here in B.C. had a set total of only 47 points. That game played 'over' the number, but still 'under' the total we're dealing with this time around, finishing up at 51 points.
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It's still early, but this is a big game for the Lions as they try to avoid falling into an early 0-2 hole. The Argos will use this game as a measuring stick after last week's inconsistent, but winning effort against Hamilton. I believe it all adds up to a hard-fought, relatively low-scoring contest at B.C. Place.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hisashi Iwakuma (7-3, 2.42 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Iwakuma is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs over eight innings off six hits with no walks in a no-decision vs. the Cubs on Friday. So is it time to hit the panic button if you're an Iwakuma fan? Obviously not. Iwakuma's ERA ranks second in the the AL, while his 0.88 WHIP is No. 1. Iwakuma will look to improve upon his very respectable 4-2, 3.14 ERA road record throwing opposite Martin Perez (2-1, 2.37 ERA) who went six-plus shutout frames vs. the Reds on Friday for a second straight victory. Perez would scatter six singles and did not issue a walk. The 22-year old southpaw does not wrack up a lot of K's, but his command is superb right now which of course does not bode well for the soft-hitting Mariners. With these two competent hurlers squaring off in the finale of this three-game set, all signs point to a low-scoring affair; consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians at Kansas City RoyalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Cleveland IndiansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tribe and the Royals put the wraps on this three-game division squabble at Kauffman Stadium Thursday afternoon where Ubaldo Jimenez opposes James Shields. Jimenez toes the slab with a sparkling 3.10 ERA on the road this season, which is a full 3.5 runs per game better than his 6.81 ERA at home. Meanwhile, Shields is 1-4 at home in his MLB career team starts against the Indians, including 0-3 the last three. With that look for Jimenez to improve to 5-2 all-time in his team starts against Kansas City here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago at OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago heads to Oakland, a huge park, great for pitchers. The problem is the Cubs don't have much on offense, 17th in runs scored, 24th in team batting average and 26th in on base percentage despite playing half their games in Wrigley Field. Starter Travis Wood is solid, with a 5-6 record and a 2.85 ERA allowing only 72 hits with 32 walks in 104 innings and 75 Ks. His last three starts: a 3.72 ERA walking 4 and fanning 15 in 19 innings. The under is 4-1 in the Cubs last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 14-6 in the Athletics last 20 home games so don't look for any offense.

RocketmanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Yankees @ MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: NY Yankees +111FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The NY Yankees travel to Minnesota to take on the Twins in the final game of this series. The NY Yankees are 94-48 the past 3 years in day games. Minnesota is allowing 6.1 runs per game their past seven games overall allowing a combined opposing team batting average of .299. The NY Yankees are 8-2 at Minnesota the past 3 years. The Yankees are now 12-1 last 13 games against the AL Central division. Yankees are 10-4 last 14 games when Phelps starts. Minnesota is 15-40 last 55 home games against a team with a winning record. Yankees are 41-13 last 54 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Yankees today!

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Houston AstrosFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Astros broke through with a big win last night as they snapped a five-game losing skid with their 4-1 victory over Tampa Bay. I feel they carry that over into Thursday in what is another favorable pitching matchup. Last night was just their 17th home win however it is only three fewer than what the Rays have on the road yet we are catching a solid underdog price. Jordan Lyles gets the ball for Houston and he will be looking to snap a two-game non-quality start streak. Prior to that, he was outstanding. He had given up two runs or fewer in all of his previous seven starts while posting a 1.61 ERA over that stretch. Tampa Bay is hitting just .244 against right-handed pitching and Lyles is in a great bounceback spot here. Tampa Bay had its four-game winning streak snapped and after scoring 20 runs in the first two games of this series, it was held to just one run last night. Low scoring games have been contagious for the Rays and that is a big reason for their struggles. Going back, they are 2-5 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. We won with Christopher Archer in his last game but that was at home against Justin Verlander but we were getting exceptional value there. Archer pitched a decent game but was far from outstanding and now he is a road favorite for just the second time in his career. He lost that first one last season and this is by far the biggest number of the two. Tampa Bay is averaging only 1.83 rpg in his six starts including a mere 1.33 rpg in three road starts.

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies +120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. Rookie Gerrit Cole is getting too much respect from oddsmakers, while veteran Cole Hamels is being undervalued.
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Hamels has been at his best away from home this season, posting a 3.81 ERA over nine starts. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in six career starts against Pittsburgh.
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Cole hasn't been dominant enough over four starts to warrant this kind of respect. The rookie has posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in those four starts, including a 4.00 ERA and 1.389 WHIP over three home starts.
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The Phillies are 37-16 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Philadelphia is 35-16 in Hamels' last 51 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Bet the Phillies Thursday.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York MetsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New York MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dillon Gee has produced a team record of 15-0 in his career coming off a start where he threw between 60 and 90 pitches. Gee has turned his season around and has solid numbers considering he plays for a team that is 10 games under .500. Gee has also allowed just 2 earned runs in 12 innings in his 2 home starts vs Arizona. The Mets have owned Arizona of late winning 7 of the last 8 here heading into last nights game. Arizona has Ian Kennedy going and no one can seem to figure out what has happened to this guy, he has been sub par again this season and isn't any where close to where he was in 2011. Kennedy has a 3-7 road record with a 5.81 era. The Diamondbacks have struggled of late hitting just .216 at scoring 2.4 runs the past week. Look for the Mets to take the finale of this series.

Jeffrey BrandesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles AngelsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Los Angeles AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pitchers:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS: ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) ERA: 2.22 W/L: 11-5
LOS ANGELES ANGELS: JOE BLANTON (R) ERA: 5.07 W/L: 2-10
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The Cardinals Adam Wainwright threw his fourth complete game Saturday vs. the A's, giving him 11 wins before the halfway point of the season. However, in his last 3 starts, he's a very human 1-2. He looks ripe to be had at a price on the road.
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Going for the Angels will be Joe Blanton. He has pitched substantially better of late, striking out 23 in his last 21 innings. He got his first win since May 23 and second of the season by beating the Astros with seven innings of three-hit ball on Saturday.
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Key Trends:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Angels are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado RockiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Just when things were looking up for the Dodgers, who have won 10 of their last 11 games, they got a scare from Yasiel Puig. The rookie had to leave the game in Colorado last night, after suffering a bruised hip when he crashed into an outfield fence. X-rays have come back negative, and Puig is listed as day to day. They are going to need all the help they can get as they look to complete the sweep in Colorado tonight. Chris Capuano will toe the rubber for the Dodgers, and he's been pretty terrible all year. Capuano (2-5, 4.72 ERA) allowed seven runs on 10 hits over just 3 2/3 innings in a 16-1 loss to the Phillies his last time out. Returning to Coors Field isn't likely to be the answer for the southpaw, he's 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA in Denver since 2010. The Rockies hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, who has tossed 15 scoreless innings over his last two starts. Chacin (7-3, 3.59 ERA) has recorded four straight victories, allowing just four runs over those four starts. Five of his seven wins this season have come at home, where he's 5-2 with a 4.31 ERA in 10 starts. Chacin has had success against the Dodgers in the past, with a record of 6-5, 3.41 ERA in 11 starts since 2010. Given his recent form, he should be able to give his team an excellent chance to avoid the sweep tonight.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado RockiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Being away from L.A. we have been spared listening to Charley Steiner and his haughty description of all great things Dodger during the Blue's dramatic 10-1 uptick. Which admittedly has put LA back in the tepid NL West race (if not made it the favorite as the second half of the season commences). Before LA completes a midweek sweep of the Rockies on 4th of July, however, a few possible problems could arise on Thursday in Denver. First, phenom OF Yasiel Puig is an iffy participant after crashing into another wall and forced to leave Wednesday's game. Second, Dodger starter Chris Capuano has never pitched well at Coors Field (2-5 record with 4.20 ERA). Third, Colorado goes with ace Jhoulys Chacin, who hasn't allowed a run in winning his last two starts and has recorded a 1.17 ERA while winning four starts in a row. The Dodgers cool off today.

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore vs. ChicagoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ben Burns won again yesterday, just as he's done every day in July. He's now 4-1 with this month's premium plays while also maintaining a 100% mark with his complimentary opinions.
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On a remarkable 30-10 (+$14,127) streak and now 67-33 (+$20,615) his L100, Burns won with the White Sox in the opener of their series against the Orioles.
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He believes that they're also offering some value in this afternoon's finale.
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These same two starters (Britton/Quintana) also opposed each other last August. Playing at home, the Orioles were extremely slight favorites.
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Despite playing on the road, the O's again find themselves listed as very slight favorites - basically in a pick'em spot. Considering that Chicago's starter is arguably in better current form, I believe that's providing us with fair value on the Sox.
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Quintana is 3-2 with a respectable 3.97 ERA and 1.258 WHIP. In eight home starts, that WHIP dips to 1.183.
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In 15 career daytime appearances, 12 of them starts, Quintana has a solid 3.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Those numbers are considerably better than his evening stats.
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Britton may be off a "W" but his numbers aren't exactly impressive. Through four starts, he's 2-2 with a mediocre 4.50 ERA. A closer look reveals that he's also got a poor 1.727 WHIP to go along with it and that he's walked more batters than he's struck out.
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In two road starts this season, Britton has a 5.56 ERA and 1.765 WHIP. That's nothing new for him. In fact, those are better than his career road stats. In 23 career road appearances, 22 of them starts, Britton's got an awful 5.89 ERA and 1.75 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .309 against him.
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While Davis and the O's will get the bulk of the attention, I believe the Sox are worth a look. Consider Chicago.

Steve MerrilFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona vs. New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona and New York wrap up a 4-game series on Thursday afternoon. Dillon Gee takes the mound for the Mets and he has allowed 2 runs or less in five of his last six starts. Gee is 3-3 with a 2.88 ERA in seven home starts with all of those games going Under the total. Gee has seen the Diamondbacks three times in his career, and Arizona batters have just 10 hits in their 50 plate appearances against him. Arizona is scuffling offensively as they are averaging just 2.9 runs per game over their last ten games. They have gone Under the total in 17 of their 26 day games this season.
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Ian Kennedy is getting back into form after a 10-game suspension. He has allowed just 7 runs and 13 hits in his last three starts for Arizona. Kennedy has not lost to the Mets in four career starts. He gave up 3 runs and seven hits in just over six innings pitched against them last year. Marlon Byrd (2-9), John Buck (2-8) and Lucas Duda (0-3) have had their problems with Kennedy. The Mets are hitting .217 at home and .226 in the daytime. Arizona’s bullpen has a 3.37 ERA on the year. Neither offense is in good form so we recommend playing this game Under the total on Thursday afternoon.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Royals -140FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't let Shields 3-6 record this season fool you. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball posting a 2.99 ERA. He has 104 strikeouts this season and has averaged 7.1 innings per game in his eight home starts. Early in the season the Royals had trouble providing Shields with the run support he needed to win games. That should not be an issue today as they come into this game batting .291 as a team and scoring 5.1 runs per game over their past seven games.
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It is an opposite story for the Indian's Ubaldo Jimenez. He has posted a 6-4 record because Cleveland has provided him with a lot of early leads. I do not think they will be able to do that today against Shields. Cleveland is at their worst from a scoring and hitting standpoint when facing a right handed starter. They have a .254 team batting average in those games. Add in the fact that Shields is no ordinary right-hander, and the Indians have a losing record on the road, and the Royals become the obvious play in this one.