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San Francisco Giants +121FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Look for the defending World Series champs to dig down deep and gut out a win after losing the first three games of the series. The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 games after losing the first 3 games of a series and 21-10 in their last 31 in the 4th game of a series. The Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 Game 4s of a series. The road has given the champs troubles all season, but they are still showing value at this price with ace Matt Cain on the hill. He's given up 3 earned runs or less in each of his last 5 starts. The Giants are 7-2 in Cain's last 9 starts versus a team with a winning record and 12-5 in his last 17 starts as a road underdog. He won his most recent start against the Reds in Cincinnati while Leake lost his most recent start against the Giants, giving up 5 runs in 4 1-3 innings. Take San Francisco.
Sports Experts 17FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners at Texas RangersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Texas RangersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers one of the top teams in the majors host Hisashi Iwakuma (7-3) that lose his last 2 starts, but that doesn't afraid a powerful Rangers team! 2 weeks ago they were in a bad losing streak, but now they're back on track and they will show to their fans tonight in this important day in the US, who can be one of the protagonists in 2013 World Series.
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Kansas City -138FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Like Jamie Shields on the hill for KC off a win last night. KC in their last 5 games have hit .317 as a team against right handers and the Royals are getting some runs across the plate which makes them dangerous. Forget Jamie Shields W-L record, he has little run support while pitching great games, I like KC to provide run support and take this game today.
Steven Kane
Pirates -128
Cole (4-0, 3.70 ERA) has been steady if not spectacular, winning every start he's made and allowing three runs or fewer in all of them, while Phillies pitcher Hamels looks to avoid matching his career high for losses as the Philadelphia Phillies close a three-game set at PNC Park.
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Pittsburgh -130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates bounced back with another team effort last night to run their recent records to 51-25, 17-6, 10-1 and 4-0 in this series site. Much like the last 2 seasons, it appears to be a magical year for the Pirates. Such has been the case for Cole who has won his first 4 starts with a 3.70 ERA. Cole has been the beneficiary of 23 runs in those 4 starts. Most impressive, however, is the fact he has been most resilient in pitching out of numerous stressful situations in allowing 3 or less runs all 4 starts. Nowhere near the same can be said of the Phillies who are on a 5-12 slide. Hamels is 2-11 for the year with a 4.58 ERA. Unlike Cole, the Phillies have scored just 22 runs in Hamels last 11 starts. Philadelphia has won only 2/10 of Hamels recent outings. Must stay with the Pirates superior record, momentum, home field and bullpen!
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Texas -130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Time for the bounceback for the Rangers who have dropped the first two games of this series by combined scores of 13-4. But Texas is an MLB best 101-64/loss L3Y including 21-14/loss this year. The hot streak for Iwakuma is drawing to a close. In his last 3 starts, Iwakuma has not recorded a victory allowing 12 runs (4 in each game) in 20 IP. Perez has pitched better in each of his 3 starts culminating with a 4-0 victory vs. Cincinnati in his last outing where he allowed just 6 hits in 6 2/3 IP. For the year, Perez is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA. Take the resilient Rangers with the hotter starter.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York MetsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arizona DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mets do have a couple of stud pitchers in Matt Harvey and Zach Wheeler but they also have Dillon Gee who is serviceable at best(too bad because it is 4th of July and all). Arizona is not playing all that well right now but they are still the vastly superior team. I am confident that starter Ian Kennedy will be OK against New York as it is has been the long ball that has really destroyed him this season and the Mets have few legit power threats. Arizona is sinking in the NL West but I don’t think they are going to go O for the Big Apple. Nice value on the road with a first place team.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York MetsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New York MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NYM are 15-0 (+1717) w/D Gee on the bump off a start where he threw sixty to ninety pitches. The Mets are 7-2 at home versus the Diamondbacks the last three seasons including 2-1 this season. Baseline Index numbers are close so we will back the home underdog here as Gee and company pull off a win on July 4.
Jeff Alexander
San Diego Padres +138
The Red Sox have been playing well but can't be counted on with Allen Webster on the mound. The rookie is 0-2 with an ERA of 9.50 in 4 starts. He has been tagged for at least 4 runs in each of his last 3 starts while posting an ERA of 12.75. The Padres are in better hands with Eric Stults. They've won 10 of his 17 starts in 2013 while he's posted an ERA of 3.51. The Padres are 12-4 in Stults' last 16 starts versus winning clubs. They are also 7-3 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 9-4 in their last 13 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
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Milwaukee +152 over WASHINGTONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers have won two in a row over the Nationals and have held Washington to one earned run over those two games. This pitching matchup is the most favorable of them all for the Crew and the tag on them is bordering on ridiculous. Taylor Jordan was shaky in his MLB debut, needing 84 pitches to make it through 4.1 innings. He is an average prospect (see our MLB June call-ups for complete scouting report on him) who has never pitched above Double–AA ball prior to his promotion. Jordan was greeted with a quick hook in his debut against the Mets and you can expect the same when he finds trouble in this start against a much tougher lineup than the one he faced in New York.
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Donovan Hand has appeared in 11 games for the Brewers this year with all but two of those being in relief. In his season starting debut on June 22, he went 4.2 shutout innings against Atlanta and allowed just two hits. He followed that up with a full five-inning start against Pittsburgh on June 29 and allowed five hits and two earned runs. In 24 innings overall, Hand has walked just three batters while striking out 14. Hand is a control specialist with an elite groundball rate of 57%. Hand isn’t a hard-thrower by any means but he effectively changes speeds and keeps the ball down with his 85-91 mph sinker. He rarely gets taken yard and he does not get rattled. Hand and the Brewers offer up some tremendous value here against an unproven rookie that has a long, long way to go.
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Philadelphia +115 over PITTSBURGH
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Cole Hamels is going to wake up this morning and have a look at the betting line, like every other major league pitcher and see that he’s a +115 dog against a rookie with four MLB starts in his career. Ya think he’s gonna be a little extra jacked up here? We do. Gerrit Cole is 4-0 with a 3.70 ERA but there are several signs that insist his winning streak is about to end. Cole has just 11 K’s in 24 innings and was extremely lucky in his last start against Milwaukee when he walked three, struck out three and allowed eight hits and three runs in six innings. His WHIP for that game was 1.83 but the Brewers could not throw that knockout punch despite having Cole on the ropes in just about every inning. Cole has an xERA of 4.50 and 4.85 over his past two starts and although he pitches for the Pirates, he does not deserve this billing over Hamels.
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This is a great matchup for Hamels against a Pirates team that doesn't hit left-handed pitching well (.231 BA, .684 OPS). Hamels comes in with an ugly 2-11 record and 4.58 ERA but it’s been a case of pure bad luck since May 1 for him. His under the surface stats say this guy is throwing as good as ever right now. Over his last five starts, Hamels has struck out 33 batters in 32 innings. His xERA over that span is an elite 3.13 but he was victimized, as he has been all season by an abnormally low 67% strand rate. Cole Hamels is a true ace with strong skills right across the board. His two wins make him one of the biggest buy low targets in MLB and we’re not about to miss this opportunity.
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Baltimore -108 over CHICAGOFFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The White Sox have lost six of their last seven games. Their 305 runs scored this season is last in the AL and second last in the entire league, ahead of only the Marlins. The Orioles are a small price here because when you look at Zach Britton’s career numbers and stats, including this year’s four starts, they are not pretty. Britton has a career ERA of 4.72 and a career WHIP of 1.50. He continues to walk too many batters and in fact, he has more BB’s (11) this year than K’s (9) in 22 frames. It’s been rumored that when Wei-Yin Chen returns, he’ll be sent back down to the minors and if that’s not enough motivation to perform well, nothing is. Thing is, Britton has all the talent in the world to thrive. He has some of the nastiest stuff in the league with a sinkerball that is almost unhittable. Britton has a 59% groundball rate. He can be brilliant or dreadful and it all boils down to whether or not he can throw strikes. If he’s on, the South Side will once again be made to look foolish at the plate and that’s a risk worth taking because unlike the White Sox, the Orioles can score runs.
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The Orioles 117 jacks is tops in the league. Baltimore is in the top three in several offensive categories and should have little trouble scoring a few on Jose Quintana. With men on base, Quintana has an alarming 15% HR/fly-ball rate and that’s not a good number to back when facing the best home-run hitting team in the majors. Baltimore has won five of six while scoring 30 times over those five wins. They should easily score four or more here and that along with the current form of these two clubs make the Orioles very appealing spotting less than a dime.
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Winnipeg +7½ over MONTREALFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even though the Alouettes won in Winnipeg last week, it wasn’t pretty and the Als needed a 14-0 final frame to secure the five-point win. We’re certainly not comfortable spotting more than a converted TD with Montreal after one game in which some adjustments will be made by both sides. Anthony Calvillo was sacked four times last week and threw for just one TD and just over 250 yards. Had it not been for special teams that set up the Als in decent field position all game and scored a TD, the Als would be 0-1. Had it not been for five Winnipeg turnovers, again, the Als would be 0-1. Montreal had everything go its way in the opener. They built a 14-0 lead, Winnipeg turned the ball over five times, Montreal had 20 more offensive plays than the Blue Bombers and yet the Als needed a 14-0 fourth quarter to win. That’s not a ringing endorsement.
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Expect the Blue Bombers to clean things up this week. They were careless in several departments and they figure to be much better this week. In the preseason, Winnipeg played few starters in both games and they paid for that rustiness in the opener. Remember, after giving up an early punt return for a TD last week, the Bombers held the Als in check the rest of the way on kickoff and punt returns. Winnipeg took the last two games from the Alouettes last season and this year they are a better squad. The Bombers figure to be a lot sharper tonight and if they can avoid those careless turnovers, expect them to be in this one the entire game. Montreal is not the powerhouse they’ve been in the past and will likely play about .500 ball this year.
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B.C. LIONS -6 over TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Well, depending on where you shop, there are several different numbers out in this game. At the time of this writing (9:15 AM), SIA had the Lions favored by -5, Pinny had them -6½ and BET365 had B.C -7. By game time, expect the line to be about -6 everywhere and that’s the number we’re going to use, although we got on at -5 at SIA. The Argos came away with an opening day 39-34 win over the Tigercats. Watching that game, it looked like Hamilton had their way the entire game and anyone that bet the Argos had to feel extremely fortunate to get that cover. The only reason the Argos won was because Hamilton’s defense took several plays off. On at least three occasions, an Argos receiver didn’t have a defender within 20 yards of him and Ricky Ray was able to hit those wide open receivers. Toronto also averaged over nine yards per carry but the same fate does not await them here. More glaring was the Argos lack of defense that allowed the Ti-Cats to move the ball at will the entire game and if they don’t do something about that, the Argos will be in for a long night.
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The Lions were torched in their opener and you know that is not sitting well with them. B.C. was never in that game. They came out flat and they could not recover against a highly motivated Stamps’ team playing in Calgary just after those devastating floods. A rebound is in order. So, forget what you saw last week in the Lions. They are one of the top two teams in the CFL. They have an outstanding QB and a great defense. Last season they allowed just 19 points a game and in this league that is unheard of. Travis Lulay is the straight goods, throwing for over 4200 yards a year ago to go along with 27 TD’s. The core of all that talent is back this season and after an embarrassing opening game, the Lions will not be flat again here. A complacent Argos team after a fluke win, gets buried.
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Cincinnati Reds - over San Francisco GiantsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The defending World Series champions have fallen to six games below .500 after going 3-11 in the last 14 games as they wrap up a long 3-city road trip. The Giants have had awful numbers on offense in this stretch, exemplified by being victim of the no-hitter two nights ago. San Francisco has failed to top three runs in 12 of the last 14 games, including scoring two or fewer runs in nine of the last 11 games. In the last 10 games the Giants are batting only .131 against right-handed pitching and Mike Leake has quietly emerged as perhaps the most reliable pitcher in a strong Reds rotation. Leake has a quality start in eight of his last nine starts and most of those outings have been high quality starts as he has allowed just nine earned runs in those nine starts. His season ERA is down to just 2.52 and Cincinnati is 10-6 in his starts. Matt Cain is the bigger name on the card today but Cain has been a league-average pitcher this season, posting a 4.29 ERA. Cain has done better lately with five straight quality starts but the Giants have lost four of his last six outings and he has been terrible in day games with a 5.24 ERA. The Reds go for a rare 4-game sweep today and Cincinnati owns a glowing 29-14 record at home while the Giants are 15-30 on the road.
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CLEVELAND (+140) over Kansas CityFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is simply a huge overlay price on KC, so we'll gladly grab the value underdog. Cleveland dropped a one-run decision last night to the Royals, but is the much better team, having won 7 out of 10 during this road trip. Tribe starter Ubaldo Jimenez has been a "play on" pitcher this season when on the road (3.10 ERA), as compared to when at home (ERA over 6.00) and he'll get the job done here against KC, which has played just .500 ball all season at home and after getting hot in early June has cooled off and has not had a two-game winning streak in more than two weeks. Take the dog.
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Philadelphia Phillies +120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There is no reason for Cole Hamels to not be the favorite here as he by far is a much more established pitcher in this league. The Pirates won last night, but the Phillies did a good job in the 9th making that game close. I think momentum carries into today along with a good outing behind Hamels. Take the Phillies.
MLB Predictions
Mariners Rangers Under 8.5
These two teams have met 12 times already this year with the UNDER going 6-4-2 in their meetings, including last night's 4-2 Seattle victory. Iwakuma was a starter in two of those games and we saw totals of 7 and 4 in those two games. Hisashi Iwakuma is 7-3 on the year with a 2.42 ERA, .203 OBA and 0.88 WHIP. His numbers rise on the road, but are still very respectable with a 3.14 ERA, .242 OBA and 1.18 WHIP. Facing Texas twice he has combined for 14.2 innings of work and has allowed just 8 hits and 3 runs over those 14.2 innings vs the Rangers. Right now the Rangers are struggling to score runs as they've scored more than 4 runs just once over their last 10 games. Texas will have Martin Perez back on the mound who is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA over 3 starts this year, with a .274 OBA and 1.26 WHIP. In his only start at home he went 6.2 innings giving up 6 hits and 0 runs. In the minors this year he is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA. He will be facing a Seattle team that ranks 27th in the MLB in runs scored and 26th in team batting average. Take note that the UNDER is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 10-1 in their last 11 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 21-6-1 in their last 28 games as a home favorite. The UNDER is also 23-8-1 in their last 32 home games overall, 15-6-1 in their last 22 overall, and 4-0 in Perez' last 4 starts overall. This is a higher total than I expected given both teams struggles to score runs (Texas ranked 25th in the MLB in runs scored in June and 26th in team batting average). I will go with the UNDER 8.5 at a good price.
bookiemonsters
109-65 run
17-8 run last 25 plays
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Play Of The Day = giants over 7.5