Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday July, 5

Marc Lawrence

Colorado Rockies at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Colorado Rockies

When the Rockies send Christian Freidrich to the mound against Lance Lynn and the Cardinals in a matchup of rookie hurlers at Bucsh Stadium Thursday evening, Colorado will do so knowing Freidrich is in great KW form with 12 strikeouts and only 1 walk in his last three starts. In addition, Friedrich's road ERA (2.75) is nearly seven runs better than his home ERA (9.62) this season. With Lynn in terrible current form with a 16.12 ERA in his last three starts, and still celebrating his announcement to this year's National League All-Star squad, look for the big dog Rockies to come up barking here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado.

Matt Fargo

Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto won for the second straight game and it looks for the series win tonight. The Blue Jays are two games over .500 and while they trail the Yankees by 7.5 games in the American League East, they are just 2.5 games out of the Wild Card. After allowing 21 total runs over the previous two games, the Blue Jays have given up just four runs over the last two games as the team ERA has gone back down to 3.95 at home. Toronto is 7-0 in its last seven games as a favorite between -110 and -150. The Royals have had a rough roadtrip as they have dropped five of their last six games after winning the highway opener in Minnesota. Kansas City has been playing a lot better since a bad start to the season but these small losing skids have kept them down and they have been unable to put together any big winning runs. The Royals have played well on the road thanks to a great bullpen but they are still just 21-48 in their last 69 games as a road underdog between +110 and +150. Henderson Alvarez gets the call for the Royals and he looks to build on a solid start last time out. He allowed just one run on seven hits and no walks in seven innings against the Angels which snapped a string of three straight non-quality outings. His overall numbers are fairly average but that game against the Angels was his ninth quality start of the season which is the most on the team. This is his first ever start against the Royals which is a big advantage. The Royals counter with Luke Hochevar who had put together three straight quality starts before a poor outing at Minnesota is his last game. He allowed five runs in six innings which knocked his ERA back up to 5.23 on the season and also snapped a string of 16.2 consecutive innings of scoreless baseball. His ERA is over two runs less on the road than it is at home but more importantly, his WHIP is actually higher on the highway. The Royals are 7-15 in Hochevar's last 22 starts as a road underdog between +110 and +150.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

The Braves fit a nice system that has won 14 of 16 times and plays on home favorites off a home favored loss at -140 or higher and scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits, vs an opponent off a road dog win at +140 or higher and scored 5 or more runs with 4 or less men left on base. The Cubs won last night but tonight we note they are 1-10 on the road v Left handers and face M. Minor of the Braves who has won all 3 of his starts against them. He opposes M. Garza has has been terrible of late in July road starts allowing 19 earned runs in 14 innings. Look for the Braves to take the finale of the series tonight.

David Chan

Royals @ Blue Jays
PICK: Over

The Royals' Luke Hochevar (5-8, 5.23 ERA) is set to square off against the Jays' Henderson Alvarez (5-6, 4.15 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Because of a rotation tweak, Hochevar gets the start in the finale on just four days rest. Hochevar looked brutal in his last start, giving up five runs and eight hits, including three home runs in a 5-1 loss to the Twins in the second game of a double header last Saturday. Hochevar has been particularly unremarkable on the road, 4-4 with 4.28 ERA.

Alvarez went seven innings vs. the Angels last Saturday, giving up just one run in the 11-2 victory; he struck out three and walked none. It's been an up and down year for the big right-hander though; although he's won his last two, that was preceded with seven straight starts without a victory. He started June by allowing 17 runs in 27 1/3's innings in his first four starts, and finished the month at 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA. Alvarez is just 2-5 with a 4.40 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

Neither starter has been overly impressive; expect an early exit for each and for this game to sneak above the number in the later innings!

Dave Price

Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 +120

I'm playing against the Dodgers here with Eovaldi on the mound. The Dodgers are 0-7 in his starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 4.61. They have lost his last 3 starts by 3, 8 and 5 runs respectively. Arizona, meanwhile, has won 5 of Miley's 6 home starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 1.99. They have won his last 4 at home by 3, 5, 6 and 4 runs respectively. Take Arizona on the run line.

Joseph D'Amico

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets

Despite a 9-2 win last night over New York, Philadelphia has been slumping as they are just 3-7 their L10 and dwell in the cellar of the NL East at 37-46. Their offense scores 4.30 RPG . With Nix, Schneider, Howard, and Galvis out, Ruiz and Pence are the only players producing at the plate for the Phillies. Cole Hammels throws today. The LH is 10-4 on the season but does not get a heck of a lot of run support in his appearances. Lifetime, the pitcher is 5-10 vs. New York. He faces a Mets team that is only 4 1/2 GB of the Nationals in the NL East. They have won 5 of their L7, scoring 45 runs in those 5 victories. The team ranks 8th in scoring with 4.61 RPG as David Wright leads a solid supporting cast of Murphy, Duda, Davis, and Nieuwenhuis (check status, the CF hurt his hand a few days ago and is likely to hit the DL. RA Dickey takes the mound here. The RH is 12-1 with a 2.15 ERA, including a perfect 6-0, 1.85 record at home. He already pitched 7.0 innings with a 1.29 ERA ( giving up 1 run), and earning the victory over Philly back on April 13th. The Phillies are 1-6 their L7 games played vs. the NL East, 1-7 their L8 games played on the road, and 3-7 in Hamels L10 starts vs. the Mets. The Mets are 7-1 their L8 games played on Thursday, 4-0 their L4 games played as a home favorite, and 8-1 in Dickey's L9 home starts. Take New York.

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres

Fascinating matchup of pitchers traded for one another this winter. Mat Latos and Edinson Volquez should stage a duel tonight. But with the Reds attack suddenly flagging, this price looks too high. I'll give the Padres a roll as home dogs.

Jim Feist

Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers
Pick: Minnesota Twins

The Twins have a young geam in Scott Diamond, who is 7-3 with a 2.63 ERA. He's been coniststent and doesn't walk anyone, terrific control for a young pitcher. Detroit continues to disappoint, and Rick Porcello (4.35 ERA) is one reason why, allowing 116 hits in 93 innings. The Twins have smacked him around twice this season, giving up 18 base runners in 10 innings. Play the Twins.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +124 over N.Y. METS

R.A. Dickey has been nothing short of brilliant all season long. He’s 12-1 overall with a 2.15 ERA and at home he’s even better with a 6-0 record and a 1.85 ERA. Dickey is close to having one of the best seasons in baseball history with his Sandy Koufax like numbers. The question becomes, “can it last?” Dickey has been helped by a 20% hit rate and an 86% strand rate. Nobody really knows how long he can get by with a trick pitch but for now, we’ll gladly back Cole Hamels taking back a tag like this one. The Phillies snapped an ugly losing streak last night with a 9-4 victory. The Mets are just 11-18 against southpaws this season and Hamels is one of the best lefties in the game. Everything about him is elite. He has 111 K’s in 111 frames. He’s issued just 28 walks. He has a groundball bias profile, a 3.17 xERA and he’s 10-4 coming into this one. Rarely will you see a price like this one on a pitcher of his calibre. The Mets bullpen has been a mess all year and if this one gets decided by the pens we like our chances even more. Play: Philadelphia +124 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND -105 over Tampa Bay

The Rays are coming off an intense three-game set against the Yankees in which they took two out of three. All three games came right down to the wire. After that series and with the All-Star break on deck, this can easily be a big letdown spot for the Rays, allowing us to step in with confidence on the mildly hot Indians. Cleveland has won two in a row, four of five and have scored 53 runs over its past seven games. That could spell trouble for Jeremy Hellickson. Hours after being activated from the DL (shoulder fatigue), Hellickson took the hill against the Tigers on Saturday and threw just 2.2 innings. His last pre-DL start on June 14 (8 runs, 9 hits in 3.2 IP) has skewed his 2012 numbers a bit for the worse but a widening gulf between ERA and xERA (3.45, 4.60) is concerning. He’s outpitched his skills ever since arriving on the big-league level (39% groundball rate and a low strikeout rate) and it’s finally catching up to him. Josh Tomlin is 4-5 in 12 starts. He’s not going to dazzle anyone but he usually gives the Tribe a chance to win. This one isn’t about backing Tomlin. It’s about playing the hottest bats in the league in a very favorable spot. Play: Cleveland -105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Jack Jones

Chicago Cubs +134

The Chicago Cubs are showing great value Thursday as a road underdog to the Atlanta Braves. The Cubs are playing their best baseball of the season right now, winners of seven of their last nine games overall. The Braves, meanwhile, have lost five of seven coming in.

Matt Garza has pitched better this season than he's getting credit for tonight. Garza is 4-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 15 starts. Mike Minor is getting more respect than he deserves from oddsmakers. The left-hander is 4-6 with a 6.20 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in 15 starts.

Atlanta is 1-10 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season. Chicago is 8-2 against the money line in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons. The Cubs are 6-0 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet Chicago Thursday.

MLB Predictions

Washington Nationals +111

The Nationals look to sweep away the Giants, as they've taken the first two games 9-4 and 9-3. Washington sits a top of the NL East with their 47-32 record, and they are 22-14 at home. The Giants are 45-37 on the year but just 19-21 away from home. Take a look at the Nationals recent outings and you can see that they are swinging hot bats. Washington has scored 5 or more runs in 8 straight games, which includes an average of 8.63 runs per game and they have won 6 of those 8 games. The Giants have scored 5 or more runs just once over their last 8 games, and they have won just once in their past 5. Matt Cain takes the mound for San Francisco and looks to rebound from allowing 11 hits and 5 earned runs over 6.2 innings in his last start. Although he is 5-1 on the road, Cain has pitched much better at home with his ERA more than a full run higher on the road (still a respectable 3.18) and his WHIP at 1.22 compared to 0.73 at home. Detwiler has returned to the rotation and is 4-3 on the season with a 3.30 ERA. He is 3-3 as a starter with a 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .246 opponents batting average (note that these numbers are pretty close to Cain's road numbers). The Giants are just 2-5 in their last 7 road games and 2-7 in Cain's last 9 as a road favorite. The Nationals have won 4 straight road games, are 13-6 in their last 19 home games v a team with a losing road record, and are 11-4 in Detwiler's last 15 starts vs a team with a winning record. Note that the Giants are just 1-6 in their last 7 of Game 3 of a series, while the Nats are 5-2 in their last 7 of a Game 3. The Nationals are 5-2 in these two teams last 7 meetings and 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Washington. Swinging the bats like they are right now I like Washington as underdogs at home.

New York Mets -115

We are going to stay in this series again tonight, as the teams have split the first two games. New York won 11-1 on Tuesday night while the Phillies won 9-2 yesterday afternoon. The win snapped a 6 game losing skid for the Phillies, while the loss was just the 2nd in 7 games for the Mets. New York sits at 44-38 on the year and 24-18 at home, while the Phillies are last place in the division with their 37-46 record and 20-22 road record. Tonight's match up features two fo the NL's best starting pitchers right now with Cole Hamels and R.A. Dickey. Hamels is 10-4 on the year with a 3.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .232 opponents batting average. On the road his ERA is bumped up a little bit to 3.49, but he is still 5-1 over 7 starts. R.A Dickey is having a career year with a 12-1 record, 2.15 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and .190 opponents batting average. At home his numbers get even better with a 6-0 record, 1.85 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and .168 opponents batting average. In his career Hamels is just 5-10 with a 4.34 ERA against the Phillies, while Dickey is 3-3 with a 2.40 ERA vs the Phillies over the past 10 years. Also taking a look at individual player stats vs Hamels you'll see a number of the Mets hitters have had success against Hamels, while few Phillies hitters have had much success against Dickey. The Phillies are 3-9 in their last 12 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 1-7 in their last 8 road games, and 0-5 in their last 5 Game 3 of a series. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite, 8-1 in Dickey's lsat 9 home starts, and 17-5 in his last 22 starts overall. Only having to lay the juice plus a little bit of chalk on the Mets tonight who have been great at home especially with in my opinion the NL's best pitcher to date seems like good value to me. Take the Mets to win tonight for 1 unit.

Hollywood Sports

Reds at Padres
Play: Under

San Diego (33-50) returns home after a long road trip that started back on June 25th that concluded yesterday with their 8-6 win at Arizona. The Padres have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. They send out Volquez who is 5-7 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP this season. The veteran right-hander has been quite good at home in Petco Park where he sports a 3.45 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .212 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 4.02 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .235 opponent's batting average when on the road. San Diego has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with Volquez pitching at home with the Total set at 6.5 or less. Volquez has also allowed just seven hits and just one run in his last two starts spanning 12 2/3 innings of work. The Padres have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Volquez pitching at home as an underdog. He faces off against Latos who will be making his first return to Petco Park since signing with the Reds in the offseason. Latos thrives in the spacious confines of Petco with his career 3.11 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .229 opponent's batting average. Latos is also heating up in the summer heat as he has two straight complete games under his belt where he allowed only one earned run in each outing and just a mere eight combined hits. He should fare well against a Padres team that has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Cincinnati (44-37) enters this series coming off a 4-1 loss to the Dodgers -- and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total following a defeat. The Reds have also played 5 straight road games Under the Total when favored.

Tony Stoffo

San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals
Play: San Francisco Giants

Free Play - San Francisco at Washington It show was apparent that the oppressive heat and humidity effected the Giants in a big way in the first two games of this series against the Nationals. And we took advantage of it as we came away with an easy fade against Lincecum Tuesday night. Well now that the Giants has settled in to be playing in these conditions I look for them to get back to playing solid ball once against. Plus it sure won't hurt their cause as they have Matt Cain taking the mound this evening. Cain has been solid on the road this season going 5-1 resulting in a 3.18 ERA and 1.216 WHIP. Plus he dominated the Nationals last season allowing just 3 runs and 12 hits in 14 innings pitched. So let's look for San Francisco and Cain to bounce back with a big game here tonight. Giants are 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Giants are 9-2 in Cain's last 11 starts.

Lenny Del Genio

Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

Might as well finish things off here as we've backed the Pirates in every game of this series, once right here as a FREE WINNER. We released the Bucs as an 8* yesterday afternoon as they handed hopeless Houston its seventh consecutive defeat. If you've read any of our analysis over the last three games, none of it has really changed here. The Astros have the fewest road wins of any team in baseball right now (9) as it's gotten downright ugly away from Minute Maid Park at 9-31 (-$1750) and you have to figure they've got no shot here w/ Bud Norris on the bump. Norris has not pitched well in recent starts (0-3 L3, 6.46 ERA) and has a 7.55 ERA in eight road starts this season. The Pirates are now 14-3 as a home favorite. Jeff Karstens doesn't have a ton of work under his belt yet, but he won his only start so far at PNC Park and struck out a season high seven batters in his most recent outing, a win at St. Louis. Karstens was 3-0 w/ a 0.44 ERA vs. Houston in 2011.