Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, July 8,2010

Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Reds open a four game series Thursday night when Kyle Kendrick takes on Johnny Cueto in Philadelphia. Kendrick toes the rubber sporting an 8-3 mark in his last 11 team starts. He's also 7-2 in his last nine starts in this park. On the flip side, Cueto enters in lousy KW form with nine walks and six strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 4-8 in his career starts during July, including 0-6 on the road with a 7.98 ERA. With that, look for Kendrick to improve to 3-0 at home in his career against Cincinnati here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Matt Fargo

Florida Marlins vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Florida Marlins

Arizona has dropped five straight games as the struggles continue this season. The Diamondbacks are now 21 games under .500 and with this losing streak, they have dropped to four games under .500 at home. Florida meanwhile is coming off a series win over the Dodgers thanks to a great pitching effort last night by Josh Johnson who tossed eight innings of shutout baseball. The pitching needs to remain strong if the Marlins are to make a move as the previous slump dropped them below .500 and they currently remain four games under .500 overall. The road has actually been very kid as Florida is 8-5 in its last 13 games away from home and this is a must win series, with a sweep being paramount. The Marlins will be looking for a rebound performance from Anibal Sanchez who allowed four runs in his last start after tossing three straight quality outings. He got off to a slow start with two bad outings to begin the season but since then he is 10-14 in quality performances and his ERA over those 14 games is 2.89 so he has obviously been throwing very well. He goes up against Rodrigo Lopez who has been just the opposite this year. He began the season with five quality starts in his first eight trips to the mound but in his last nine starts, he has only four quality performances. Surprisingly he has been better on the road than at home as he has a 3.74 ERA, 126. WHIP and .251 BAA in his eight roadies while at home those numbers jump to a 5.08 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .300 BAA in nine games. The Diamondbacks are 2-6 in his last eight starts. Overall, Arizona is a dreadful 2-14 in its last 16 home games against teams with a losing record while Florida is 4-1 in its last five games as a favorite of less than -150. The Marlins are also 4-1 in Sanchez’s last five starts against teams with a losing record. 3* Florida Marlins

Steve Merril

Indians vs. Rays
Play: Over 9

Tampa Bay continues to play well as they won their fifth straight game on Wednesday night. They begin a 4-game home series with the Cleveland Indians who come to town after losing two straight games in Texas. Wade Davis gets the starts for Tampa Bay tonight. He's 5-9 with a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts this season. The righty is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three outings. Cleveland has gone Over in two of their last three games after their pitching staff gave up 15 runs in those two games. The Rays are hot again. They have gone Over in four of five games and Over in seven of their last nine games. Jake Westbrook takes the mound for Cleveland. He's 5-4 with a 4.59 ERA this season. His ERA rises up to 4.75 on the road where he has had made nine starts. He last faced the Rays back in 2007, but they are a drastically different team from then. Carlos Pena (9-29) has had the most success against Westbrook. Tampa is hitting over .290 as a team in their last eight games. If Westbrook struggles, the Rays will face an Indians bullpen that has an ERA near 6.00 on the road. We expect Tampa Bay’s offense to do a lot of damage to Westbrook and the Indians pitching staff which means we’ll recommend a play on the Over in this game tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

St Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The Cards were the victims of back to back walk off losses the past 2 nights here in Colorado. Today they have their ace on the mound in Chris Carpenter. In 21+ innings vs the Rockies he has allowed just 2 runs. He has a 2.73 road era this year and a 4-1 career mark with a 0.75 era vs Colorado. The Rockies have their ace U. Jimenez on this hill today. Jimenez has been hit real hard of late with a 8.66 era over his past 3 starts and he has a 3.94 home era this season and a 1-3 4.32 era vs the Cardinals. For a technical approach consider playing against certain home favorites off a 1 run home win if their opponent is off a 1 run road loss and both teams scored 5 + runs on 10+ hits. These home favorites are under .500 the past 7 seasons. You may not see this type of value with Carpenter again for awhile.

Jim Feist

Giants vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9

Milwaukee is an excellent offensive park, easy for home runs, which explains why the Brewers are No. 3 in the National League in runs scored. A pair of slumping starters square off in this one. Lefty Barry Zito has a 7.63 ERA his last three starts, while Manny Parra may have a 2-0 record his last three, he has a 6.06 ERA in those games. Parra walks too many batters (31 in 64 innings), so look for plenty of offense. Play the Giants/Brewers Over the total.

Jack Jones

Marlins/Diamondbacks OVER 9.5

I have backed the OVER the past two days in the Cubs/Diamondbacks series, and both came through. Arizona is an OVERS machine this season to say the least. The OVER is 52-31-2 in Arizona's 85 games this season, and the OVER is 28-14 in their 42 home games. The Diamondbacks are scoring 5.3 RPG at home this season. These are two teams that rely on power to produce runs, and in hitter-friendly Arizona with a short fence today, the long balls should be flying.

I'm not sold on either starting pitcher. Rodrigo Lopez is 2-4 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 9 home starts this season for Arizona. Anibal Sanchez is 4-3 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in 8 road starts this year for Florida. Both teams have shaky bullpens as well. Florida ranks 22nd in the league with a 4.54 ERA from their relievers, while the Diamondbacks rank dead last at 30th with a 6.90 ERA from their bullpen. The OVER is 7-0 in Marlins last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The OVER is 8-0 in Diamondbacks last 8 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The OVER is 25-10-2 in the last 37 meetings between these teams in Arizona. Take the OVER in this one Thursday.

Info Plays

3* on Milwaukee Brewers -105

Reasons the Brewers win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. This is a 56-15 ML System hitting 78.9% over the last 5 seasons.

2.) San Francisco has won the first 3 games of this series, and the Brewers have to be hungry for a win in Game 4. A 4-game sweep of the Brewers on the road is highly unlikely, so we'll take the value and back this system today. Bet the Brewers at home.

SPORTS WAGERS
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MILWAUKEE –1½ +1.86 over San Francisco
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You could lay six cents here if you like and that certainly is the safer play with a higher percentage of cashing but the pitching match-up heavily favors the Brewers. Also consider that this is a day game after a night game and with the Giants winning the first three games of this set, chances are good they’ll be sitting more regulars than the home team. The Brewers were down 11-1 after four frames last night and some of the regulars were pulled and given the rest of the night off. Barry Zito’s road ERA (4.86) is better than two runs higher than home ERA (2.83). I’ve been saying for weeks that a big correction is coming in Zito’s numbers and he hasn’t disappointed. Zito has a 7.63 ERA over his last three starts. Zito is still flashing the same mediocre skills that have resulted in him never having a winning season with the Giants. He’s a big-time imposter that got off to a good start and will very likely get rocked again today. Meanwhile, Manny Parra is so close to being a completely dominating pitcher. The only thing from preventing that is his control, as he’s still walking too many batters. Over his last 33.2 innings, Parra has struck out 39 batters and he’s also been much better at home than on the road. Lastly, Aaron Rowand has seven AB’s against Parra while the rest of the Giant hitters have a combined 9 career AB’s vs Parra and that, too, gives the Brewers a significant edge. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.86 (Risking 2 units).

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Baltimore/TEXAS over 9½ Pinnacle
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If there were a real list of “pitchers to fade” every week you might find both Tommy Hunter and Jeremy Guthrie near the top of that list. Tommy Hunter’s 1.98 ERA is an illusion that cannot last and because he’s facing the Orioles here, we get a pretty sweet number to go over against. Fact is, Hunter has a 38% groundball rate and that is one of the lowest rates in the majors. He also has an unsustainable 83% strand rate and a 24% line drive rate on batted balls and frankly, all of those numbers are alarming. Forget his surface stats; Hunter has been the luckiest pitcher in the majors and his ERA is going to skyrocket north and it’s going to happen soon. Guthrie can also be categorized as a pitcher with a mundane skill set. A disturbing monthly trend exists with flyballs and HRs for Guthrie; FB% is on the rise (39%, 43%, 45%) as well as hr/f (7%, 9%, 11%). Guthrie pitching in Arlington is a disaster just waiting to happen. One really has to figure at least one of these teams to score seven or more. Play: Texas/Baltimore over 9½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Sac Lawson
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MIL (-110) vs SFG
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No, I'm not entirely shocked with what Manny Parra brings to the table, but I do know this... After the garbage that Narveson threw last night, he'll look like a stud. Parra has a decent fastball, and a great curveball to keep right handed hitters off balance. The key is locating that fastball to keep lefties off his first pitch. I don't expect anything crazy from him today, and I especially don't expect him to go deep (after all, he never does), which is why in order to confirm Milwaukee, we've gotta make sure we've got the bullpen support in the later three innings. Looking at the series results, Milwaukee has been thrashed, and you'd think their bullpen would be depleted by this point. In reality though, we've still got Villanueva, Axford, and Loe available for today's game. Honestly, those are the only three guys I'd ever want to see in the first place! The fact that Coffey is definitely not available is awesome! Point being, I like our bullpen availability, and I like Parra to be OK for 5-6 innings.
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As you can tell, this play is more about my lack of confidence in Zito. Zito is just 2-3 with a 4.86 on the road this season, including 4 of his last 5 road starts that have seen him give up 5 earned or more. On top of it, he's 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA in his last 5 starts against Milwaukee. There are times when scouting is helpful, and there are times when you just can't ignore the raw numbers. This is the latter.
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I do not expect Zito to out-pitch Parra today, and I expect that Brewers pen to be uncharacteristically solid in the late innings with Axford and Loe. Take the Brewers to salvage a win in the final game of the four game set, with the Giants looking ahead to their big matchup against Strasburg tomorrow.

Karl Garrett

Two days in a row the St. Louis bullpen has collapsed to take away sure wins from the club.

Not today!

Chris Carpenter is coming off his worst outing of the year, an outing in which he allowed a whopping 7 runs to cross in just 3 innings of work. Still, Carpenter is a solid 9-2 for the year, and has yet to lose on the road, going 3-0 with a 2.73 road ERA.

G-Man will take his chances with the underdog Cards and Carpenter, as I have a feeling the St. Louis starter may go the route today in salvaging the series today against Ubaldo Jimenez, and the Rockies.

It is clear Jimenez is getting tired, and the All-Star break can't come too soon for this guy, as Jimenez has allowed an alarming 17 runs over his last 18 innings of work, yet is still 1-0 in that span.

The Cardinals avoid the sweep today, and punch the ticket as the road dog as Carpenter rights the ship.

2♦ ST. LOUIS

Bobby Maxwell

Nailed another FREE winner on Wednesday when the Yankees completed the sweep of the A's in Oakland. Tonight I have another freebie for you as I play the Marlins on the road in Arizona to beat the D'Backs.

Arizona has dropped five in a row and it is now just 1-5 since switching managers and general managers a week ago. The D’Backs haven’t looked good and they won’t again tonight against Florida starter Anibal Sanchez (7-5, 3.35 ERA).

Florida has won three of four overall and took two of three from the Dodgers, including Wednesday’s 4-0 victory. Sanchez has been extremely consistent lately, giving up four runs or less in each of his last 10 starts. He’ll shut down the D’Backs offense tonight and put his offense in position to take this one.

Rodrigo Lopez is on the hill for the Diamondbacks and he’s 2-4 at home this season with a whopping 5.08 ERA. He only lasted 3.2 innings on Saturday, giving up nine runs to the Dodgers in a 14-1 blowout. The D’Backs have dropped three of his last four home starts.

Arizona is on slides of 2-6 in Lopez’s last eight starts, 0-5 at home, 18-38 overall, 16-42 as underdogs and 6-21 against teams with losing records. Florida hasn’t exactly been dominating other teams, but Sanchez is 4-1 when he starts Game 1 of a series and 4-1 when he faces a team with a losing record.

I just haven’t seen any positive changes in the D’Backs since the changeover to a new manager and GM. Florida has at least looked decent here lately and they’ll come in to Arizona and take this one tonight. Play Sanchez and the Marlins.

5♦ FLORIDA

Chuck O'Brien

Easy FREE winner with the White Sox over the Angels last night. Thursday’s complimentary selection comes from the Pacific Northwest, as I’ll take the Yankees on the run line (-1½ runs) over the Mariners.

New York is coming off an impressive three-game sweep in Oakland, beating the A’s top three pitchers in the process. And going back to Saturday, the Yankees have now won five in a row, outscoring Toronto and Oakland 33-13. At the other end of the spectrum, Seattle just got swept at home by the Royals and has now lost six of its last seven (after winning nine of its previous 12).

Admittedly, Mariners left-hander Jason Vargas (6-4, 3.22 ERA) has been great this year, especially so at home (5-1, 2.30). But Vargas has slipped a bit lately – he’s coming off back-to-back losses to the Brewers and Tigers, allowing nine runs in 9 1/3 innings – but more than that, he has the bad luck of having to oppose Andy Pettitte here. All Pettitte has done is go 10-2 with a 2.82 ERA, and that includes helping New York to a trio of blowout wins in his last three trips to the mound (9-3, 8-6 and 11-3).

Pettitte has been tremendous on the road this year at 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA, and the Yanks are 5-1 when the veteran southpaw works away from the Bronx.

New York will come into this contest plenty motivated, as it lost two of three to the Mariners at home last week. Of course, the two losses came against Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. No offense to Vargas, but he doesn’t quite measure up to those two All-Stars.

One final thing: Five of the Yankees’ last six wins and 11 of their last 14 have covered the run line, and 18 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs (including the last five in a row) have been decided by more than one run.

3♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5

BRETT ATKINS

Tonight's comp winner for you is coming on the Blue Jays as they will get it done at home over the Twins.

Toronto has dominated the head-to-head matchups with the Twins lately, winning 11 of the last 15 in Toronto and 16 of the last 21 overall.

The Blue Jays are on runs of 7-3 in starter Brett Cecil’s last 10 outings, 5-2 when he’s a home favorite and 20-7 as home favorites overall. Cecil looked outstanding on Friday in New York when he held the Yankees to one run over six innings of a 6-1 victory. Last year, he faced these Twins and held them to two runs on six innings of a 3-2 victory.

On the opposite side is Twins’ starter Scott Baker who is a horrible 1-5 with a 6.55 ERA on the road this season. In his last two roadies, he’s allowed a combined 11 runs on 20 hits in 10.1 innings, losing to the Mets and Brewers.

The Twins have dropped his last three starts against Toronto, including both games last year. I’ll go ahead and play the home team Blue Jays in this one.

4♦ TORONTO

JOEL TYSON

4-1 comp play run coming into Thursday's action.

Take the OVER tonight when Minnesota and Toronto conclude their 3 game series at the Rogers Centre.

The first two games of this three game set have toppled the total, and Minnesota is now on a 4 game over run, and have also been over the total in 7 of their last 9 games.

As for Toronto, the Jays are also on a 4 game over tear, and Brett Cecil's 6.15 home ERA suggests another over is in the cards.

Couple Cecil's over 6 home ERA with Minnesota starter Scott Baker's 6.55 road ERA, and the hitters will once again have their way north of the border.

Twins-Blue Jays conclude the three-game set with another over.

4♦ OVER