Matt Rivers
John Danks is a quality lefthander who can dazzle against anybody at anytime but the Angels are certainly a top tier club in baseball and to get a solid price back with Ervin Santana is enough to give it a go.
Santana is a little feast or famine at times and can get hit here at a total hitter’s park in US Cellular. Ozzie Guillens’ surging Sox are back in the race and playing very well but this game truly isn’t that far away from being 50-50 so I can’t help by grab the number with the Halos.
Aybar, Kendrick, Hunter, Abreu and Matsui are very good hitters that can never be getting too much money when they have at least a solid hurler on the mound which they do today. If Santana is on, with that electric stuff which he does have at times, then I would not be shocked to see the visitors win comfortably. Sure it’s asking a lot against a very good pitcher in Danks but the southpaw is not exactly a stud ace just yet and can allow a few runs.
Mike Scioscia’s club is a good one, not a great one at all as they did lose a lot of quality pieces in the last off-season and have not looked good thus far in this series but they are still quite competent and always worth a shot at a price like this.
The key to baseball is finding winnable games and getting quality takebacks in the process. You won’t win all of those games but if you can hit about half with the dog then you are good to go and that is the case here.
Not the lock of my life but a good value and a must play, even if small.
Pick: Anaheim +120
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Texas Rangers -1.5 -120
I'll take the Rangers on the run line tonight when you consider Baltimore is 0-13 the last 2 seasons in Guthrie's starts against AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs per game on the season. The O's are losing in this situation by an average score of 2.8 to 7.5. The O's have lost 6 of Guthrie's last 7 starts with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 3 runs. Meanwhile, Hunter has been terrific for the Rangers this season. They have won all 6 of his starts by at least 2 runs. Plus, Baltimore is just 1-19 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. The O's are losing in this situation by an average score of 2.8 to 6.7. Take Texas on the run line.
MTi Sports
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St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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The Rockies are 0-7 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series and the Cardinals are 8-0 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start. Finally, the Cardinals are The Cardinals are 15-1 with Chris Carpenter starts after losing as a home favorite in his last start. St Louis? lone loss came back in 2006 when Isringhausen blew a save by allowing two runs in the bottom of the ninth. With take the price and Chris Carpenter.
EZWINNERS
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Houston Astros -206
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The Astros have found a team that they are capable of beating up on on a consistent basis. The Pirates are now only 7-20 in their last twenty seven meetings with the Astros after last nights loss and I look for Houston's dominance to continue today. The Astros send their ace Roy Oswalt to the mound today. This might be one of Roy O's last starts for the Astros if they do indeed move him before before the trade deadline. Oswalt has pitched very well this season but unfortunately, he continues to be the victim of poor run support. Oswalt is 2-2 in his last five starts despite holding his opponents to two earned runs or less in four out of those five games. Roy has pitched very well against Pittsburgh in the past. This season Oswalt is 1-0 against the Pirates with an ERA of 2.57 and in his career Oswalt is 14-7 with a 2.62 ERA against the Pirates. Houston native Ross Ohlendorf gets the start for the Pirates in this game and he has not had any success at all against his home town team. In five career starts against the Astros Ohlendorf is 0-5 with an ERA of 7.57 and he does not have much margin for error since Roy O is the opposing pitcher. Play on Houston. Play on Houston.
Dan Bebe
ANA (+117) vs CWS
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Suffice it to say that I believe strongly the Angels avoid getting swept in 4 games. I think they play better today without a rain delay, and Ervin Santana already has shut the White Sox down once this season (7 innings, no earned runs).
Danks is a very good opponent, more than worthy of being a slight favorite, but at this price, the Angels are a steal. They've been getting very, very unlucky, in terms of balls in play being either right at fielders, or turning into double plays, and the White Sox won last night despite a fairly ugly game.
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The Angels have too much pride to get beaten completely senseless, and while it's generally a pretty flimsy handicapping technique, and I actually usually buy into teams getting the sweep, losing 4 straight to the same team isn't easy to do.
I think the Halos grab 2-3 runs off Danks, and add a couple more off the White Sox pen. We've also seen the White Sox top arms in each of the last 2 games, so I would expect the Sox pen is looking for a day off, and Danks might get left out there a little longer than usual, despite the summer heat.
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The Angels have the situational angles working in their favor, and while all the player numbers don't line up perfectly, Santana is a very reliable starter, and I believe he can neutralize the power righty bats in the Sox lineup.
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Play this one fairly small, but let's grab the dog odds on LAA!
JR O'Donnell
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MIL (-112) vs SFG
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We love the Milwaukee Brewers -112 today as this afternoon JR O 'Marquee winner goes to the Manny Parra lead Brew-Crew WHO GOT POUNDED LAST NIGHT!! 15-2 "Final" as they get smoked and the game got out of control! 11 runs after 4 innings! The Parra lead Mil Brewers are getting Vegas respect and they opened up as small dog here and the sharps moved the line to -115. Zito has losing record on the road a 2-3 mark and close to 5 ERA. Let's roll out the Mil Brewers and Parra as we feel that the Brewers are the right side here this afternoon!!
Frank Jordan
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Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Cleveland Indians
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Cleveland lost the last two games of the three game set against Texas after winning the opener with the rubber match was 4-3. Tampa Bay has won 5 in a row, but so has the Yankees which keeps the Rays 2 games back in the East. Look for Cleveland to get great pitching out of Westbrook as the Indians take the first game of this four game set. Play Cleveland
Craig Trapp
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New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: New York Yankees -1.5
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The Yankees are thinking of distancing themselves from TAM and BOS as they try and finish the sweep of their west road trip. Also have revenge in mind for a SEA team that beat them 2-1 at home a few weeks ago. The NYY are much healthier as they are just rolling at the plate. Today they turn to Pettite who was just named all star for 5th time. Consistency is his key he will give us 7 innings of 1 run baseball, count on it. He will be opposed by Vargas who has not done well last two times out including the loss to the NYY (nine runs and 15 hits over 9 1/3 innings in his last two outings). As a bonus SEA bullpen has been horrible last week and that can only help as NYY pile up runs late.
Tom Freese
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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Cincinnati starter Johnny Cueto has allowed 2 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Reds are 8-2 their last 10 road games and they are 12-4 their last 16 games overall. The Reds are 10-3 with Cueto this year. Cincinnati is 5-0 their last 5 games when playing game one of a series and they are 7-1 their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Philadelphia starter Kyle Kendrick has allowed 15 runs in his last 19.1 innings of work. The Phillies are 3-9 their last 12 games as underdogs. The Phils are 2-6 their last 8 games and they are 3-9 with Kendrick with 4 days of rest.
John Ryan
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LAA Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: LAA Angels
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5* graded play on Anaheim as they take on the CWS set to start at 2;05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Anaheim will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of just 86-80, but has made a whopping 35.7 units since 1997. Play on road teams with a poor OBP <=.320 and with a starting pitcher averaging more than 6.5 innings per start facing a very good AL starting pitcher posting a WHIP<=1.300. LAA is a solid 38-19 (+20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team winning between 54% to 62% of their games on the season spanning the last 2 seasons. Santana is a solid 17-3 (+14.8 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game in the second half of the season since 1997; 10-1 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games against AL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons. The CWS are just 4-15 (-15.0 Units) against the money line versus an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. Santana is at his best when he can throw slider for a first pitch strike. It makes it very difficult for batters to sit on a pitch, especially his FB, when he can throw the slider early in the count for a strike. He throws slider 28% of the time and batters are hitting just 187 on that pitch. in summary, we strongly believe he will be able to contain the CWS offense. Take LAA.
Rocketman
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San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
Play: San Diego Padres
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San Diego comes in with a 49-35 overall record while Washington is now 38-47 on the season. San Diego bullpen has a 2.79 ERA overall this year and a 2.73 ERA on the road this season. Mat Latos is 9-4 with a 2.62 ERA overall this year, 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA on the road this season and 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA his last 3 starts. Luis Atilano is 2-3 with a 5.69 ERA at home this year. Latos is 2-0 with a 3.08 ERA overall vs Washington since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!
Wunderdog
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Pirates vs. Astros
Play: Under 7
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are a complete road disaster. When you put them against right-hand pitching the suffering worsens. The Pirates, in their last 51 road games vs. a right-hand pitcher, have scored a grand total of 126 runs. That is a 51-game stretch of averaging 2.47 runs per game. They now face not only a righthander on the road, but a tough one in Roy Oswalt. The Pirates go with Ross Olendorf who has had a lot of success within the division, leading the Pirates to a 15-2 mark to the UNDER vs. the NL Central. Oswalt has now gone 11-2 to the UNDER in his last 13 starts following a quality start his last time out. I'll go with the UNDER here.
SEAN MURPHY
San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals
PICK: San Diego Padres
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The Padres aren't the type of team that throws in the towel after losing the first two games of a series.
They showed plenty of fight for the second straight night, nearly rallying back from a 6-2 deficit. They failed to finish the job, leaving runners stranded trailing 7-6 in the ninth inning, but I do feel they carry some positive momentum into tonight's ball game.
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The Nationals are suddenly red hot at the plate, but it's not as if they've been facing Cy Young contenders...that is until tonight.
The Padres will turn to their young ace, Mat Latos, in an effort to avoid the sweep. They should be in good hands, as Latos has been as tough to hit as any pitcher in baseball, holding opponents to a .193 average. That's even more staggering when you consider that opponents hit .289 against him in the month of April. Since the start of May, he's been absolutely locked in.
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Latos has been at his best on the road, where he's held opponents to a .180 average this season while posting a 55:15 strikeout to walk ratio in 55 1/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts, he's allowed just 13 hits and one earned run over 20 2/3 innings of work.
The Nationals didn't have an answer for Latos back on May 29th, as they collected just four hits and two runs off of him in six innings of a 4-2 loss. Their current roster is hitting .235 against him in 34 career at-bats.
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Luis Atilano will get the nod for the Nationals. After a strong start to the season, it appears the wheels have started to come off. He pitched well two starts back, but that came against the lowly Orioles. In his last outing he was brought back to Earth by the Mets, allowing four hits and five earned runs while failing to make it through the fourth inning.
Atilano hasn't enjoyed pitching at Nationals Park, going 2-3 with a 5.68 ERA with opponents hitting .291 against him. He hasn't shown the ability to miss many bats, regardless where he's pitched, recording only 37 strikeouts in 76 1/3 innings of work.
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This will be the Padres first look at the rookie right-hander.
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Even though they've come out on the short end in the first two games of this series, the Padres are still a solid road team at 22-16 on the season. Thanks to back-to-back losses, the key arms at the back-end of their bullpen are rested and ready entering tonight's contest. They may not need them if Latos continues to dominate. Take San Diego.
Black Widow
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1* on Chicago Cubs +1.5 -118
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With the way Randy Wells has pitched against the Dodgers in his career, it's easy to see why we'll be taking the Cubs on the Run Line showing excellent value Thursday. Though Wells is 0-2 vs. the Dodgers in his career, he allowed just 2 earned runs in 13.2 innings for a 1.32 ERA. Both starts he lost by finals of 2-1, which would be a cover on the Run Line. Wells is coming around this year too, going 1-0 over his last 2 starts while allowing 2 earned runs in 13.2 innings for a 1.32 ERA. The Cubs are feeling great about themselves after sweeping their last series in Arizona, outscoring the Diamondbacks 23-11 in the process. The Cubs are 10-2 (+7.7 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents this season. Take Chicago on the Run Line.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Texas Rangers -1.5 -130
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Tommy Hunter has taken the mound 6 times for the Rangers this season, and they have won all 6 of those starts by at least 2 runs. Meanwhile, the Orioles have lost 6 of Jeremy Guthrie's last 7 outings with all 6 of those defeats coming by at least 3 runs. I must also mention that the Orioles are a horrible 1-19 this season when facing a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 of fewer hits per start. The Orioles have lost these games by an average of 3.9 runs. Take the Rangers on the run line.