Nelly
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Toronto - over Minnesota
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Twins continue to lose ground in the AL Central as the Tigers and White Sox are playing great ball. Last night's loss was especially painful as the two most productive players in the Twins lineup were both injured as Justin Morneau left the game with a head injury and Delmon Young banged his arm in an outfield collision. Both are questionable today as Minnesota hopes to break out of a 5-10 rut in the last 15 games. Minnesota has struggled with the Blue Jays going just 5-16 in the last 21 meetings and Brett Cecil presents a serious challenge as six of his last nine starts have featured two or fewer runs allowed. Cecil struggled in interleague play but each of his last six AL starts featured high quality efforts. The Jays are also 9-5 overall in games that he has pitched. Scott Baker has struggled on the road this season with the Twins going 2-6 in those starts. Baker has a road ERA of 6.55 with a 1.61 WHIP as opponents are batting .317 against him. Toronto has slumped a bit on offense in recent weeks but this is an excellent hitting team against right-handed pitching. The Minnesota bullpen has also presented some recent problems after a very strong start to the year.
Hollywood Sports
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
While Brett Cecil is just 7-5 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.20 WHIP for the season, we are encouraged by his last outing in the Bronx where he held the Yankees to just four hits and one run in six innings of work. Toronto have won 8 of their last 10 games with Cecil pitching on the heels of a Quality Start in his last performance. Minnesota sends out Scott Baker who is 7-7 but with a 4.72 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for the year. Baker is really struggling on the road this season as evidenced by his gaudy 6.55 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and .325 opponent's batting average. The Twins are not likely to provide Baker much support as they are just 15-37 in their last 52 games against left-handed starters.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
A deeper sabermetric statistic helps to illustrate why Cecil is the better proposition between these two starting pitchers this season. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Cecil has a solid ISO of .132 while Baker has a high .196 ISO. This metric exposes the fact that hitters are nailing Baker for many more extra-base hits than they are against Cecil. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
TEDDY COVERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Yankees @ Mariners
PICK: Over 7.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
We saw five home runs hit at Safeco Field last night, a true rarity in this pitcher friendly ballpark. Prior to last night’s game, the Mariners had only hit two or more homers at home five times all year. Their opponents, too, had hit two or more homers only five times all year at Safeco. Why is the ball suddenly flying out of this park? Simple – it’s hot as hell in Seattle right now. Today’s high is expected to reach the mid 90’s, with game time temperatures in the upper 80’s – not Seattle-like conditions, to say the least.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Yankees offense, Mariners starter Jason Vargas and a total of 7.5 simply don’t mesh with these type of weather conditions. New York is crushing the baseball, ranking second in the majors in runs scored and OPS. They’ve scored six runs or more in four of their last five games, including two out of three to open up their road trip in Oakland.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Vargas has a 7.50 career ERA against the Bronx Bombers, and he’s been lit up in each of his last two starts: 15 hits and nine runs allowed in just 9.1 innings of work. Seattle’s bullpen behind him has been largely ineffective, hit hard again last night after blowing a late lead against Kansas City on Monday.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Yankees starter Andy Pettitte has been very good all year, but he’s allowed at least two earned runs in each of his last six starts. Plus, Pettitte has been vulnerable to the gopher ball of late, allowing ten dingers in his last nine trips to the hill. A couple of cheap runs from the Mariners here should be more than enough to send this game up and over the total. 2* Take the Over.
Dave Price
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1 Unit on NY Yankees -151
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Vargas has been good for Seattle this season, but he hasn't been Pettitte good. The Yankee southpaw is 10-2 (13-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.82. On the road, Pettitte is 3-0 (5-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.59. The Yankees are 21-5 in Pettitte's last 26 starts as a favorite. Vargas is coming off back-to-back rough outings and we find that the Mariners are only 1-5 in his last 6 starts series-opening starts and just 1-7 in his last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Look for the Yankees to earn a 6th straight win on the strength of another solid outing from Pettitte.
Glenn McGrew
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Yankees at Mariners
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
It helps not to walk batters in bit parks and that’s the case in this one. Safeco is a large, pitcher friendly park, which partly explains why the Mariners offense is so bad. For this game, two pitchers who throw strikes are on the hill in Andy Pettitte (10-2, 2.82 ERA) and Jason Vargas (3.22 ERA). Vargas has allowed 26 walks in 100 innings, plus fewer hits than innings pitched. Look for a defensive battle, play the Yankees/Mariners Under the total.