Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the Braves at Coors.
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How can anybody go against this wonderkid in Tommy Hanson right now? The young righty appears to be as good as advertised and after dominating in each of his last five starts he is more than capable of holding down the Rockies today, even in the thin air of the Mile High City.
Atlanta has not exactly been an overachieving club this season and Chipper Jones is banged up which is never great. Plus the Rockies have been playing great ball over the past month plus and have a former All-Star in Aaron Cook on the bump.
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But with the above paragraph I just cannot help but ride Hanson. The youngster had that 26 inning scorepess streak before finally allowing an Adam Dunn Home-Run in his last start in the seventh inning. That was the only run allowed as Hanson left the game with a 3-1 lead that was lost by Mike Gonzalez and the rest of the Brave bullpen.
If you take out his first career start where he allowed six earned runs against the Brewers then you see a combined three runs in his last five starts. Are you kidding me with that? Plus he has faced quality lineups like the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles.
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I'm just rolling with a red hot good thing here, period!
1♦ Braves
DAVE COKIN
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ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Take MILWAUKEE BREWERS
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Manny Parra has been a huge disappointment for the Brewers this season. Coming off a very promising rookie campaign, they were counting on big things from the lefty. But he couldn't find the strike zone, lost his confidence and eventually had to be optioned out. Parra is now back with the big club off his best effort of the season, a seven inning whitewash at Round Rock where he gave up just two hits and two walks. Obviously, he wasn't facing Albert Pujols there, and he will here. But with Joel Pineiro on the mound for the Cardinals, I'm willing to give Parra a shot and I'll back the Brewers.
JIM FEIST
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SAN DIEGO PADRES / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Take UNDER
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You want to talk about lousy offenses? Two of the weakest meet here in San Francisco. The Giants rank 23rd in runs scored, last in on base percentage, while the Padres are last in runs. San Diego starter Josh Geer has a 3.72 ERA his last three starts and for the season isn't walking anyone. The San Diego offense has to face the most dominant young arm in baseball in Tim Lincecum (9-2, 2.23 ERA), who has fanned 141 in 121 innings. His last three starts: 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA! Play the Padres/Giants under the total.
Vernon Croy
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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We are getting solid value here early Thursday with the Toronto Blue Jays who have the best pitcher in baseball on the mound. Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.79 ERA) has pitched great on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.52 and now that the Jays GM said he will be accepting offers for the former AL Cy Young winner I look for Halladay to dominate this Rays line-up Thursday afternoon. The Tampa Bay Rays barely managed to get the win in both games against the Jays in this series and now they face the Jays ace who should have plenty of run support today. David Price (2-3, 5.21) has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 9.01 while lasting an average of just 4.0 innings per starts and he has had control problems which will cost him against this potent Blue Jays line-up that is hitting .322 as a team in dome games. Take the Toronto Blue Jays Thursday.
Tommy Gill
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Houston and Washington Over 8.5 for 2 units
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Looking at this matchup we are getting two good pitchers in Lannan (6-5 3.45 ERA) vs. Ortiz (3-4 4.11 ERA). I believe that this line is to short even though both pitchers are 18-7 to the under this season. The Over is 4-1 last 5 between the two teams and 9-4-1 to the Over in Houston last 14 games played their. Lannan is by far the best pitcher Washington has on their roster he has been averaged 3 ER in 7 innings pitched so far this year while Ortiz has been inconsistent for Houston. In Ortiz last game he gave up 8 runs in 5.2 innings pitched to the Giants in SF. In Lannan 3 starts career vs. Houston all 3 games have gone Over the posted total with this year pitching 6 innings giving up 4 runs in a rare win for Washington 9-4. Houston games at home this year are only averaging 8 runs a game and Washington is averaging 10 runs a game on the road due to their terrible bullpen and bad defense. This is a rare spot for me to back an over with Houston but I have a good feeling that this game is going to go Over the 8.5 today.
Tom Freese
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San Diego at San Francisco
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San Diego Josh Geer has allowed 3 or less runs in his last 4 starts. The Padres are 15-4-1 UNDER their last 20 games and they are 6-2 UNDER after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game and they 4-0 UNDER their last 4 games with the Giants. San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum has allowed 1 run total in his last 3 starts covering 25 innings of work. San Francisco 25-12-4 UNDER their last 41 games vs. losing teams. The Giants are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 Thursday games and they are 15-6-3 UNDER vs. NL West teams. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Lincecum vs. Geer)
Yankee Capper
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Minnesota Twins RL
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Padres/Giants Over 7
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Cincinnati Reds +135
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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SEA / TEX Over 8
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Looking to remain on top of the division, the Rangers hope to ride that momentum into Safeco Field and stay perfect against the Seattle Mariners this season when they face All-Star Felix Hernandez to open a four-game series Thursday night. Winners of seven of their last eight, the Rangers are 5-0 against the Mariners this season. Texas, which swept a two-game set at Safeco in May, is batting .304 while outscoring Seattle 29-15 in 2009. Though Hernandez has lost his last five decisions versus the Rangers and is 4-9 with a 4.35 ERA in 18 starts against them, the AL pitcher of the month for June allowed four hits in seven scoreless innings of a 3-2 loss at Texas on May 14. That being said, I look for Hernandez to falter slightly today and believe we're getting great value on the over. It's interesting to note that Seattle has seen the total go over the posted number in both games they've played as a home favorite of -175 to -200! Play on the OVER!
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
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Kansas City Royals starter Luke Hochevar has a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts and three of his four road starts this season have stayed UNDER the total. The Royals are scoring just 3.3 runs per game on the road this season and have gone UNDER in 24 of 36 road games. Boston has gone UNDER in 12 of 15 games as a favorite of $1.50 or more. Go with the UNDER
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Play on: UNDER
Tony George
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Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
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Some Good trends here heading into tonight’s game. Colorado has cooled off somewhat, but still tough at home and Atlanta just took 2 out of 3 from the Cubs at Wrigley. The under trends here have Colorado going Under 8 out of the last 10 games, and overall combined these two teams have went Under at a combined rate of 16 out of their last 20 games. Solid bullpens with ERA’s at 4 or Under and two solid starting pitchers tonight with a combined record of 12-3, and Tommy Hanson for Atlanta has a 3-0 record his last 3 with an ERA of 0.93 and has allowed only 9 hits in 18 innings of work in those last 3.
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Play UNDER
Nelly
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New York - over Minnesota
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Alfredo Aceves has not made many starts in his career but his numbers in every situation have been excellent. Aceves has a 2.02 ERA as a reliever this season and last year as mainly a starter he had a 2.40 ERA. He owns 34 strikeouts and just seven walks in 40 innings this season for New York and he should have success against the Minnesota lineup that has cooled off considerably. The Twins are batting just .245 over the last ten games and Minnesota has a big mental disadvantage as they have struggled mightily against the Yankees. Minnesota led in all four games in New York earlier this season but lost everyone one of them and also suffered a blowout loss in the opener of this home series. Minnesota has scored over five runs just twice in the last ten games while New York has scored at least four runs in twelve consecutive games despite playing mainly on the road in one of the toughest parts of the schedule. New York is batting .293 in the last ten games and the Yankees should have success in this match-up. Francisco Liriano has had very limited success this season and yet is still valued based on what he accomplished in past years.
Karl Garrett
Texas +160 at SEATTLE
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G-Man on a 7-3 free play run the last 10 days.
American League action tonight, and why not take a chance with the underdog Rangers at this price?
Texas just took 2 out of 3 in Anaheim to take back first place in the AL West, and they have now won 7 of their last 8 overall.
I know Felix Hernandez is a tough hombre, but he is 0-3 his last 5 starts against the Rangers, and his team has yet to win a game in 5 season series meetings this year with Texas.
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Tommy Hunter is coming off his first win, as he was able to hold the Rays to just 1 run in 5 decent innings of work against them his last time out.
Texas is 7-4 at Safeco since last season, and 16-8 overall since last year against their division rival.
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G-Man has to grab the plus-money, and the Rangers tonight.
2♦ TEXAS
Wunderdog
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Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox -1.5
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Two years ago, the Indians looked like an up-and-coming team with CC Sabathia, and Fausto Carmona leading them to a playoffs series win over the Yankees. It has been all downhill since. Sabathia is gone, and Carmona appears to have been a one-year wonder. The Indians have subsequently lost more games by two runs or more than anyone else in the American League, as they simply can't out hit their weak pitching. The Tribe is just 14-27 on the road and David Huff has allowed 3+ runs in eight of his 10 starts, not getting past the fifth inning in seven of them, which means a lot of work for an exasperated bullpen, which hasn't done the job all season. The White Sox are 13-4 in their last 17 games, and playing their best baseball of the season. I'm fading the Tribe here and going with the White Sox on the runline.
The Sports Investing Professional
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Today I'm looking to the Florida / Arizona match-up for what I think is a real nice value. There is no mystery that I LOVE to fade Y. Petit. Problem is that his manager is sharp and usually gets him now after only 4 innings because he's already given up 3,4, or 5 runs. Last time in Colorado that move ended up costing us the game as he pulled him early enough to keep them in it. Well since Arizona is almost always trailing early we're only going to FADE them early and take Florida -115 for the first 5 innings.
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Florida Marlins 1H -115
Freddy Wills
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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This is a pitching mismatch in my opinion with Joel Pineiro vs. Manny Parra. Parra will start for the first time since 6/13 and he has awful numbers against the Cardinals. Cardinals have a .310 average with a .385 2HR coming from Pujols' protection Ryan Ludwick. I really like the emergence of Colby Rasmus 13-29 4HR in his last 8 games hitting in the two hole in front of Pujols.
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Pineiro has a .84 whip and 1.99 ERA and should keep the ball on the ground in Milwaukee. He has 2 quality starts in Milwaukee 13.1IP and 4ER giving up just 9H in his career. Expect much of the same here today with a Brewers team who has a .250 avg of Pineiro.