Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 24,2010

Scott Spreitzer
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Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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I had Seattle last night, our Big Chalk Game of the Month, part of a nice, 4-0 sweep. I believe they are the play again today. Felix Hernandez has been on fire in his last couple of starts, and he's held five of his last six opponents to 2 earned runs or less. The righty has always been a strong daytime pitcher and this season is no different, sporting a 2.79 ERA. Hernandez is 10-4 in 18 IL starts, allowing just 40 earned runs and 140 base runners in 124 2/3 innings, for a 2.89 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. And how's this for an advantage -- the struggling Cubs have never faced him. Look for Hernandez and the Mariners to pick up the win, extending Seattle's win streak to seven straight. I'm playing the Mariners on Thursday.

Matt Fargo
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Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
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We have won with the White Sox the last two nights and we will ride them Thursday for the series sweep against the Braves. Atlanta was playing some of the best baseball in the Majors but the road play is still in question as it is three games under .500 on the season away from home. Chicago is just a game under .500 at home which is certainly nothing to get excited about but the overall winning streak is most important right now. Chicago has won eight straight games and it 12-1 in its last 13 contests to turn what was looking like a lost season back into a contending one. The White Sox now trail Minnesota by just three and a half games in the American League Central after being 11.5 games back the night that Armando Galarraga tossed the ‘perfect game’ against them. One of the reasons for the recent turnaround has been starting pitching and Gavin Floyd is on that list. His overall numbers are average still but he has tossed five quality outings in his last six starts while posting a 3.08 ERA over that span and it is that high only because of one bad game. He has allowed only one earned run in each of his last three starts. He goes up against Derek Lowe who has also turned his season around with a good run but he is still capable of tossing a dud which he did yet against three starts back. He has tossed two straight quality outings since then however he has not put three back-to-back yet this season and has not accomplished that since August of last season. The White Sox fall into a solid situation as well. Play on American League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that are hitting .265 or worse and starting a pitcher that strikes out five or more hitters per start going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season. This situation is 99-33 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Chicago White Sox

Cajun Sports
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Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies take the field for the third and final game of their interleague series on Thursday night. At the time of this writing, we do not know the outcome of Wednesday’s matchup so the series could be all even or the Rockies may hold a 2-0 series lead. Both squads will send right-handers to the bump on Thursday night with Daisuke Matsuzaka going for the Red Sox and Jason Hammel taking the hill for the Rockies. Boston is 60-16 in their last 76 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter, 32-14 in their last 46 interleague road games, 20-8 in their last 28 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 overall as a road underdog. The Red Sox are 41-17 in Matsuzaka’s last 58 starts, 19-7 in his last 26 road starts and 16-6 his last 22 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. A check of the database reveals a MLB system that tells us to Play AGAINST National League home favorites of -110 or more during the month of June with a starter whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the year. Playing against these home favorites has been profitable over the last five seasons with more than fifty-one units won and a record of 60%. Our TPR Index projects a Red Sox victory by 1.3 runs over the Rockies in tonight’s contest. We will back the small puppy here as Boston takes Game 3 of this series.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Boston Red Sox 4 Colorado Rockies 3

Rob Vinciletti

Tigers vs. Mets
Play: Over 8

Both teams have hit well over the past week. The Mets are averaging 6 runs per game on .302 hitting vs AL teams, while the Tigers are also scoring over 6 runs per game and hitting over .300 vs NL teams. Detroit has hit lefty pitching better than right handed pitching this year. In fact they are averaging 5 runs per game when they take on leftys. When they are installed as a road dog in this range they have flown over 8 of 11 times. They should be able to put up some runs against Mets lefty Takahashi. For Detroit Righty Galarraga makes the start tonight. He has struggled in road games this year and has an elevated 6.51 road era. Look for both teams to put up some runs here tonight.

THE PREZ

Netherlands @ Cameroon
PICK: Draw
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There are multiple options on your end when investing in this Sweden - Superettan Soccer match. Pinny, 5Dimes and BetUS offers some of the best soccer lines and Bookmaker covers multiple world leagues, too.

The Dutch need just a draw to earn top place in the group (and probably will still get it with a loss), and face an eliminated Cameroon side playing only for pride.

WHEN: 2:30 p.m.

WHERE: Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town

MONEY LINE: Netherlands -125, Cameroon +410, draw +269

OVER/UNDER: 2, 2.5 goals, over -123, under -+111
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Cameroon may only have pride on the line, but they are a side capable of so much more than they’ve shown this tournament. A victory against a Netherlands side that has been efficient, but not yet spectacular, could take the sour taste of their early elimination out of their mouths.

But while Netherlands is guaranteed of advancing, it wants to try and keep building towards the ultimate goal of the championship. Coach Bert Van Marwijk is expected to name an unchanged lineup, which means saving winger Arjen Robben for the knockout stages as he nears readiness after a hamstring injury.
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The possession the Dutch have shown already in the tournament won't present itself on Thursday with starters resting for most of the match; and expect Samuel Eto’o to be at his best with a draw much more likely than the current oddsmakers +260-ish price.

Pinny is offering a Draw at +269, 5Dimes has the Draw at +260, while Bookmaker has the Draw at +235
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3* Play on Cameroon DRAW

BIG AL
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Florida Marlins @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Florida Marlins
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Both of these teams are having issues right now. Baltimore has the worst record in baseball at 19-51 and is threatening to match or break the records of the 1962 Mets or more recently, 2003 Tigers for the worst records in each league respectively for the last 75 years. The Marlins aren't nearly as bad as the O's, but the issues that have been dogging the clubhouse became serious enough that the club fired Manager Fredi Gonzalez on Tuesday. One bright spot for Baltimore (if you can call it that) is that newly-acquired Kevin Millwood finally got his first win as a member of the team in his last start, a six inning quality outing against the Padres in San Diego. But it took 15 outings for him to get it and he's now asked to face a team that he's seen plenty of times previously without much luck. In 23 starts against Florida, Millwood is just 6-9 with a 5.29 ERA, so it seems as though his chances of getting back-to-back victories just got slimmer. The Marlins will go with lefthander Nate Robertson, who is only 5-5 with a 4.44 ERA but has shown some decent flashes for this team that he joined right after spring training. A 4.44 ERA may not seem great, but it's actually the best such number that Robertson has had since the 2005 season. Robertson historically does his best work in inter-league play as he is 7-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 24 games (16 starts) when pitching against the opposite league. Take the Marlins.

MARC LAWRENCE
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Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets
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The Tigers and Mets bid adieu when the conclude their three game Interleague matchup at Citi Field when Armando Galarraga meets Hisanori Takahashi tonight. While both hurlers enter off team start wins in each of their last thee games, a closer look shows Galarraga with five walks and four strikeouts in his starts. With the Mets 11-1 in their last 12 games on this field, look for New York to continue their winning ways here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Info Plays

3* on Minnesota Twins +159

Reasons the Twins win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.600 to 1.700 on the season-AL, excellent fielding team - averaging <=0.5 errors/game on the season. This is a 28-17 ML System hitting 62.2% over the last 5 seasons gaining +32.9 units.

2.) Minnesota is too good to get swept by Milwaukee, and they'll get Game 3 tonight to avoid it. Yovanni Gallardo gave up 4 earned runs, 6 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings in a 7-8 loss to the Twins back in May. Also in May this year, Nick Blackburn beat the Brewers 15-3 while allowing 3 earned runs, 7 hits and 1 walk in 7.1 innings. The Twins are 61-26 in their last 87 interleague games, including 12-4 in their last 16 interleague games as an underdog. Bet Minnesota on the road.

Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners
Take: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have turned a corner while on that 5-game win streak. The pitching has been dominant, but that's no surprise as the pitching on this team is incredible. And the best they have goes here in ace Felix Hernandez, with a 3.39 ERA. In his last three starts he has 23 Ks, 5 walks in 23 innings. Chicago is a terrible road team and they are a long way from home. An excellent spot for the hot home team. Play the Mariners.

Jack Jones

Florida Marlins -107

I find the Marlins at another great price Thursday against the worst team in baseball. Somehow, some way the Orioles continue to get too much respect from the odds makers despite their 19-52 record on the season. It's also hard to believe that we are getting the Marlins at nearly even money tonight considering Florida has the clear edge on the mound. Nate Robertson has not been spectacular, but at 5-5 with a 4.44 ERA he has been better than Kevin Millwood.

Millwood is washed up, and it's finally starting to show this season. The righty has gone 1-8 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.490 WHIP in 15 starts this year. Millwood is 1-3 with an 8.74 ERA over his last 4 starts, allowing 6 or more earned runs in three of them. Millwood is also just 6-9 with a 5.47 ERA in 23 career starts vs. Florida. The Orioles are hitting .249 and scoring 3.3 RPG this season. If you thought it couldn't get any worse, it actually does against left-handed starters. Baltimore is 6-19 vs. lefty starters this season, hitting .238 and scoring 3.0 RPG. Florida is 5-1 in their last 6 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Baltimore. Finally, the Marlins are 11-1 in their last 12 meetings with the Orioles overall. I'm not about to pass up Florida at this price Thursday. Take the Marlins.

Brad Diamond Sports
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Play Cleveland over Philadelphia
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Talk about a hurler that continues to regress! Kentucky Joe Blanton (2-5, 6.96) of Philadelphia pitched decently in his Minnesota outing last week. However, the Phillies have won just 2 of his 9 starts in 2010. Overall, at home this season Blanton has thrown a bulging 5.28 ERA to the opposition. When you see the Phillies 0-4 mark with Blanton in this price, it makes you wonder, can this club convert against this lesser foe? Remember, RHP Carmona is an ex-Phillies farmhand and would love nothing better than to shutdown the Bank Boys! Finally, the Phillies show at 20-41 in Interleague games versus right-handed hurlers, so I will back the Indians here.

Gill Alexander
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SDP (+170) vs TAM
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LeBlanc has a 0.92ERA in his last 3 starts and has reportedly achieved that lofty mark by a renewed and successful commitment to getting ahead in counts. The Rays have lost 6 of 7 and 9 of 12. Garza has a 10.66ERA in June and is coming off a 1.1IP, 7ER, 7H disaster v Fla in which he required 70 pitches to record 4 outs. 70! As I mentioned on the podcast yesterday, the Rays dirty little secret is that they not only lack offensive firepower, with only 2 players (Pena and Longoria) with over 7 HRs on the year, but have a number of starting lineup players who have anemic BAs. Pena (.200), Upton (.231), and Bartlett (.233) are among the regulars struggling. By the way, the Rays home record of 18-17 is worse than the Padres 19-13 road mark. The metrics look fairly good here too. LeBlanc has a 3.94FIP and 4.66xFIP w a very non-flukey .312BABIP while Garza has a 4.53FIP and 4.44xFIP. The play is clear. There's no way that the Padres should be at +170 in this spot. The Rays will never be the Yanks or Sox in terms of public perception, but they're awfully "publicy" these days w lines like this. There's at least 4 dimes of value in that line and it's our duty to exploit it. These are the games you wait for when betting baseball. It's incumbent upon us to pull the trigger.

Chris Jordan

Going to play the Under in this one, as I believe we're in store for a pitching showdown between Ted Lilly and Felix Hernandez.

Lilly, though he's 1-3 on the road this season, has a very respectable 2.62 ERA with a suitcase in hand. Plus, the Cubs are a perfect 5-0 under when he toes the slab outside of Wrigley Field. Overall, the Cubs are 9-2 under when he's on the bump.

Even further, the Cubs are on under runs of 6-2 in Interleague play when visiting a losing team, 6-2 as a road pup, 7-0 when Lilly takes on a losing host, 13-3 when he's on the road overall and 14-3 when he faces a losing team.

As for King Felix, he's coming off a pair of complete-game victories over San Diego and Cincinnati, both of which he limited to three earned runs over 18 innings for an ERA of 1.50. And make note, before last night's 8-1 thrashing by the M's, they had stayed low in six straight games.

With Seattle, the under is on winning runs of 4-1 at home in Interleague play, 5-0 with Hernandez on the hill, 5-1 when he's facing a National League foe and 10-2 when he's toeing the slab on Thursdays.

Play this one low today.

2♦ CHICAGO/SEATTLE UNDER

Stephen Nover

Now on a 32-12-1 with my complimentary releases thanks to the Astros last night, I'm going to lay the chalk with Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals against the Toronto Blue Jays and Brandon Morrow.

Wainwright has been dominant at home, while merely good on the road. I'll take merely good here against a struggling Toronto club that isn't nearly the offensive club some may think.

Wainwright's road ERA is 2.78 this season. St. Louis has won 21 of his last 29 road starts. Wainwright has held opposing clubs to two earned runs or less in 11 of his 15 starts. The Blue Jays are averaging only 2.9 runs per game during their last 16 games.

The Blue Jays look powerful, leading the majors in homers by a wide margin with 108. However, they are an all or nothing type club. They ranked 27th in batting average, were 29th in strikeouts per plate appearance and are last in stolen bases - and this was all before being shut out on four hits last night by Chris Carpenter and Ryan Franklin.

Wainwright can exploit those Toronto's weaknesses, while avoiding the Blue Jays' power. He's allowed just six homers in 109 innings this season, never once giving up more than one in a game.

Morrow is pitching much better than he did at the beginning of the season when his ERA was 6.80 through nine starts. But his night ERA is 5.62 and his ERA in interleague competition is 4.62 in 19 starts.

Morrow also will have to deal with a red-hot Matt Holliday, who is 13-for-22 in his last five games with 11 RBIs.

2♦ ST. LOUIS