Bobby Maxwell
Got the FREE winner on Wednesday with the Mets to improve my comp record to 113-95-3. Tonight I have another interleague winner for you as I go with the Rockies at home against the Red Sox.
Since Jason Hammel has come off the DL this season, he’s been damn near unhittable. After going 0-2 with a 9.16 ERA to start the season, Hammel suffered a groin injury and was forced to the DL. Now he’s on fire and you’ll see him outduel the Red Sox and Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Hamel is 5-1 with a 2.05 ERA since returning to the lineup He’s been very sharp here lately, going 4-0 with a 0.78 ERA in his last five outings and he’s currently riding a scoreless innings streak of 25.1. On Friday, he blanked the Brewers through 7.1 innings and the Rockies won that one 2-0.
Colorado took care of the Red Sox on Wednesday and they’re going to do it again here. The Rockies have won four straight regular season meetings with Boston, including Wednesday’s dramatic victory as Jason Giambi hit a two-run walkoff homer to lead them to the 8-6 victory.
Daisuke Matsuzaka goes for the Red Sox and he was scratched from his last outings with a forearm problem. He looked good before the injury, but how long before this flares up and causes him to lose effectiveness.
It’s all about the pitching in this one and I like Hammel and think he’s going to find it early and shut down the Boston bats. Go with Colorado.
3♦ COLORADO
Karl Garrett
G-Man coming with an under in tonight's Boston-Colorado serie finale.
Jason Hammel has been on an absolute roll, as the righty has not allowed an earned run in any of his last 3 starts, and has allowed 1 run total over his last 29-plus innings of work. With a 5-1 mark at Coors this season, and a 2.80 ERA at Coors this season, the G-Man has a feeling it is going to be hard for the BoSox to muster much offense against this guy.
On the flip side, Daisuke Matsuzaka is back in the rotation, and his last 15 innings of work have seen just 3 runs cross the plate.
Last night was a rare over for these teams, as Boston has played low in 3 of their last 4, and 6 of their last 9 overall, while Colorado has been under in 2 of their last 3, and 5 of their last 7 overall.
G-Man expects Dice-K and Hammel to hook up in a pitcher's duel, and for the series finale to stay under the posted total.
2♦ UNDER
BRETT ATKINS
It's always a good idea to go against the worst team in baseball, so tonight's free play is on the Marlins as they are in Baltimore to take on the Orioles.
Florida fired its manager on Wednesday and it didn’t seem to bother them much as they went out and rallied from a 4-0 deficit to beat the Orioles 7-5. Edwin Rodriguez is in as manager and today he’s throwing Nate Robertson (5-5, 4.44 ERA) on the hill against the Orioles.
Robertson’s last road start came June 12 against Tampa and he allowed just one run in 5.2 innings and got a no-decision even though Florida won the game 6-5.
Kevin Millwood is on the hill for Baltimore and he’s been horrid of late. He got the win on Saturday by allowing three runs in six innings, but his prior four starts he gave up 25 runs in 22.2 innings. Millwood is 6-9 with a career 5.47 ERA against the Marlins, but he’s been terrible early and that’s when Florida will get to him.
Lay the chalk and go with the Marlins to get this one and stay red-hot.
5♦ FLORIDA
JOEL TYSON
Comp play winner on the Angels last night, now 12-7 the last 19 days with my comp plays.
When it rains, it pours, and right now it is raining all over the Pirates, and pouring all over the Rangers.
Texas rocked Pittsburgh again last night for their 10th straight win, while sending the Pirates to their 14th loss in their last 16 games.
With those kinds of opposing numbers, it is no wonder the Rangers are such a heavy favorite. I say to take a little wood off the pile and play the Rangers on the RUN LINE, as Texas is just in that zone right now, and it is doubtful Jeff Karstens is going to slow this lineup down.
Karstens is 0-2 with a 5.32 ERA on the road this season, and has allowed 10 runs his last 17 innings of work.
Scott Feldman has been pitching solid ball, going 2-0 his last 2 trips to the bump while allowing just 3 runs over his last 13 innings of work.
Gotta go with Texas on the RUN LINE to hammer the Pirates one more time.
2♦ TEXAS -1.5
Tom Freese
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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Angels starter Scott Kazmir has won his last 4 starts allowing 6 runs total in those 4 starts. The Angels are 20-7 their last 27 games overall. The Angels are 49-21 their last 70 Interleague games and they are 57-25 in Game 3 of a series. The Dodgers Knuckleballer Charlie Haeger has been on the losing side of all 5 of his starts this year. The Dodgers are 26-57 their last 83 Interleague games. The Dodgers 6-21 their last 27 Interleague games vs. lefty starters. The Dodgers are 0-6 their last games as underdogs.
Dennis Macklin
Giants vs. Astros
Play: Over 7
Prefer a little extra juice with the seven here, you don't pay juice when you win anyway. The Giants Matt Cain is razor sharp but not the luckist guy in the world and just 1-2 with a 3.90 LT ERA vs the Astros. Wandy Rodriguez is throwing batting practice at 0-3 with a 10.20 ERA in his L3. WRod has 8.36 LT ERA against the Giants in limited opportunities and could give this number up by himself. Plays Giants/Asros Over the total.
Greg Shaker
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PHI / CLE Over 9.5
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I don't usually like to play OVERS with such a high line because there are too many ways for it to fail. However, I think that we have a goodie with this one and I will be very brief with this early start time. First and foremost is the fact that Joe Blanton is not on his game this year and certainly not most recently. He is making a lot of mistakes in the K-Zone and the result is 4 straight OVERS and a ton of Dingers. 5 in his last 3 games and 11 over his last 7 games. That is not a good thing for a couple of reasons. The Weather Pattern here at this park is going to be Hitter-Worthy with a nice breeze out to the fences and this Hitters Park is more so that way during the Heat of the Summer. Secondly, the Phils Pen has been next to awful of late, sporting an ERA of 6.5 Runs over their last 12 tries. Cleveland will be in their best hitting posture facing the righty today and this team is scoring pretty well, with 4 or more runs 8 of the last 10 games. Carmona could put a snafu on this one but Philly is likely to plate some as well with their very potent offense. Day games here have been higher scoring one's for as long as I can remember and I do believe that this number is very obtainable. My MLB Totals Model does not agree but I don't live by those numbers and will not here.
JR ODonnell
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ATL (+100) vs CWS
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Bravos Ugly and Effective today as the White Sox are not the sharp side early today, The public will be riding the Chi Sox and JR O. MOVES all in on the Bravos and Derek Lowe. Let's roll into the Thursday night's paid ticket with the Bravos Momentum. D Lowe will shut down the Chi Sox who were stifled by the Hudson lead Bravos. One Big hit by the White Sox, a 3 run dinger beat the Bravos who had men crawling all over the bases last night. The Bravos avoid the sweep and score early and often vs. G Floyd early today
Lee Kostroski
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Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Under 8.5
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The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the worst hitting teams against left-handed pitching, batting .234 against left-handed pitching. Southpaws neutralize the biggest power threat for the Rays as Carlos Pena is batting .186 in those match-ups while reliable hitters Jason Bartlett and Carl Crawford also have very poor numbers against left-handed pitching. Tampa Bay has gone cold offensively overall with just a .243 team average in the last ten games while struggling to keep a connection to the AL East lead.
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Wade LeBlanc has endured some ups and downs this season but his last three starts have been outstanding. The young left-hander owns a strong 2.88 ERA for the season and in his last three starts he has allowed just two runs in nearly 20 innings of work. His last road start featured seven brilliant innings of shutout ball, allowing just four hits in a hostile pitching environment in Philadelphia. LeBlanc has also excelled in daytime games with a 2.12 ERA in five starts. For the year the ‘under’ is 7-4 in LeBlanc outings including cashing in three of his last four starts.
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Matt Garza’s ERA has climbed significantly in his recent starts but his last start was a tough match-up against the Marlins in a second consecutive outing versus that team. Florida has owned Garza this year but his numbers against the rest of baseball are still quite strong. Garza owns a solid 4.16 ERA for the season and he been especially tough in day games with a 2-0 record and a 2.29 ERA accompanied by a 1.07 WHIP. The Tampa Bay offense has sputtered of late and there have been some poor starting efforts but the Rays remain credible with a strong bullpen, featuring a 3.14 ERA for the season.
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The ‘under’ is 19-14-1 in Tampa Bay home games this season and 21-8-2 in San Diego road games this season and this match-up should play similar to those trends. With LeBlanc being a relative unknown and Garza suffering a disastrous last outing this line could be a touch inflated but low scoring numbers should be expected in this early game on Thursday as the teams look to finish out the series.
Rocketman
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San Francisco @ Houston
Play: San Francisco -1.5
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San Francisco is now 39-31 overall this year while Houston comes in with a 27-45 overall record this season. Houston is 2-12 the past 3 years and 1-8 this year when the total is 7 or less. Houston is 1-9 this year as a home underdog of +125 to +150. Houston has lost 9 of their last 11 games overall. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.50 ERA overall this year. Houston is scoring only 3.4 runs per game overall, 3.5 runs per game at home and 3.2 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Matt Cain is 6-5 with a 2.16 ERA overall this year, 2.15 ERA on the road this year and 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA his last 3 starts. Wandy Rodriguez is 3-10 with a 6.09 ERA overall this year, 2-4 with a 5.52 ERA at home and 0-3 with a 10.20 ERA his last 3 starts. San Francisco is 7-1 overall vs Houston this year. Rodriguez is 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA overall vs San Francisco since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco on the Runline today!
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on New York Mets -122
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The Mets have an excellent opportunity to earn the series sweep over Detroit this evening with Takahashi on the hill. He is 2-0 (3-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.95 over his last 3 starts. Teams have had all sorts of problems with him in interleague play, where he has gone 2-0 with an ERA of 0.47. Galarraga has pitched well for the Tigers this season, but he hasn't inspired much confidence on the road (6.51) or in interleague play (5.94 ERA). In fact, the Tigers are 5-11 in Galarraga's last 16 road starts and 2-10 in his last 12 starts as a road underdog. The Mets have been strong at home all season, going 26-10, and beating Detroit is nothing new as they have won 6 of the last 8 meetings and each of the last 5 meetings at home. Look for Detroit's struggles on the road and against the Mets to continue here.
EZWINNERS
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Texas Rangers -$230
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The Rangers are the hottest team in baseball having won ten straight games after putting another beating on the Pirates last night in Arlington. The AL West-leading Rangers matched their season high with 13 runs and had 17 hits last night and I expect their bats to stay hot tonight against the Pirates starting pitcher Jeff Karstens. Karstens is a pitch to contact hitter that does not strike out many batters and that is not a good thing against this hot Texas lineup in this ball park. Looks for Karstens ERA of almost five runs per game to climb after this outing. Scott Feldman will be on the mound for the Rangers and he has really been pitching well this month. Feldman is 3-1 in the month of June and has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three starts. I expect another solid start here by Feldman against the Pittsburgh. The Pirates are only 9-43 in their last 52 interleague road games and I expect those miseries to continue for the Bucs. Play on Texas.
SPORTS WAGERS
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TAMPA BAY –1½ +1.24 over San Diego
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Note the 12:10 PM EST start. Make no mistake about it, Wade LeBlanc is one of the top three luckiest pitchers in the game and there is just no way he can sustain an ERA of 2.88 when he’s no better than guys like Joe Blanton (6.96 ERA) or Wandy Rodriguez (6.09 ERA) and the proof is there. First his BAA against is a pedestrian .283 and that comes after pitching 48 of his 68 IP this year at Petco Park. In four starts this month covering 25 frames, LeBlanc has walked 9 and struck out 13 so he’s not fooling anyone. On the season he has a GB rate of just 38% (Blanton’s is 43% and Rodriguez’s is 47.4%) and most notably, he has a strand rate of 83.7% and that especially cannot last. All this contributes to an xERA of 4.87, which is two runs higher than his current ERA. The disparity between the two is extreme. This guy is an imposter and his charmed life could get ugly against this talented offense. Also note that the Rays are not in a good mood after losing the first two games of this series. Matt Garza is having an off year but he’s as fierce as a competitor as there is. He called his last start the lowest point in his career after allowing seven runs in 1.1 frames and you know he and the whole team will be a little extra juiced today. Lastly, this is a noon start and the Padres routine will certainly be disrupted, as it’s something they’re not accustomed to. Play: Tampa Bay –1½ +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
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CHICAGO –1.02 over Atlanta
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Note the 2:05 PM EST start. The South Side is one of the hottest teams in the league and Derek Lowe is one of the most overvalued pitchers in the league. That combo makes the White Sox very worthy of some consideration here. Remember, Lowe is 37-years-old and the wear and tear on his arm is beginning to show after throwing over 2200 career innings. On the road this season he’s been torched to the tune of 45 hits and 26 runs in 38 IP for a BAA of .298, an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.72. Lowe is a two-pitch pitcher and if his splitter isn’t working or he’s not hitting his spots he has no chance at all. No pitcher can fool these White Sox, as they remain the most patient team in the league at the plate. Meanwhile, Gavin Floyd has had seven strong starts in his last eight games. His three-month xERA has been falling and his BPV (see bottom of this page for explanation of BPV and PQS) during May and June is 94 and 91 respectively. The Braves had numerous chances last night to deliver but failed miserably and that frustration has a way of carrying over. In addition, the South Side continue to beat up on its NL counterparts with 36 wins in the last 52 games. Play: Chicago –1.02 (Risking 2 .04 units to win 2).
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MILWAUKEE –1½ +1.38 over Minnesota
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Note the 2:05 PM EST start. Nick Blackburn (14 BPV, 3-0-0-5-0 PQS) has not pitched past the fourth inning in three of the last four starts. The season has gone from bad to worse, highlighted by a 12.00 ERA in June. His road ERA on the year is 9.09 and now he’ll face a confident and very warm Brewers offense. Also note that Blackburn has just 24 lousy k’s in 76 frames and a BAA of .337. This guy should take public transportation to the park this afternoon so that he can get used to riding buses. Meanwhile, Yovani Gallardo (85 BPV,5-3-5-5-5 PQS) has pitched brilliantly in 14 of his 15 starts this year. He’s one of the best in the business but does not get the recognition he deserves. Gallardo has 104 k’s in 93 frames, a .221 BAA and an ERA of 1.54 over his last five starts with a BAA of .176. He’s allowed just five bombs all year. The Brewers won the first two games of this series with unfavorable pitching match-ups and now they get a very favorable one. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Razor Sharp
Dodgers / Angels Over 9
Neither starting pitcher, Charlie Haegar or Scott Kazmir, has pitched well this season. As a matter of fact, the have been big disappointments. Charlie Haegar is coming off the 15-day DL to make this start. Prior to the injury he was 0-4 with a 8.53 ERA. Copmparing that to the way he finished last year with a 3.32 ERA in 3 starts late in the year. For the Angels, Scott Kazmir was picked up late last year to be a solid cog in their starting lineup. He is 7-5 but his ERA is 5.08 this season, compared to 2-2 and 1.73 ERA last year in 6 starts for the Angels. In their last 5 games, the Angels have scored 31 runs (6.2 runs/game) heading into Wednesday nights contest. The Dodgers have scored 32 runs in their last 6 games (5.3 runs/game).
Insider Angles
The New York Mets are one of the hottest teams in base ball as they entered play on Wednesday having won 10 of their last 12 games, and we look for the New Yorkers to wrap up this home interleague series vs. the Detroit Tigers with a victory.
Mets starter Hisanori Takahashi has done a great job since entering the starting rotation after beginning the year in the bullpen, as he has allowed one run or less in four of his six starts with all four of those great outings being official Quality Starts. He has a 3.13 ERA overall for the season and he is coming off of an outing where he held the mighty New York Yankees lineup scoreless on just four hits in six innings.
Now, Detroit starter Armando Galarraga is best known for what should have been a perfect game vs. the Cleveland Indians that was taken away by a blown call by Jim Joyce on what should have been the final out, but he has actually been inconsistent this season. He has a rather high 4.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in his last three starts, and he now must contend with a hot Mets offense that put up 14 runs in the series opener in a game started by Tiger ace Justin Verlander.
In fact, the Mets are batting a whopping .314 vs. right-handed pitchers over their last 10 games, averaging a Yankees-like 6.10 runs per game in those contests. Besides, New York has been a tough team to beat here at Citi Field all year, as they are 25-10 at home compared to just 15-20 on the road.
As hot as the Mets have been lately, we look for their home success to continue Thursday night.
Pick: Mets -120