Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, June 27

BRAD WILTON

My comp play for Thursday will be the Mets and Rockies to stay Under the total in their make up game today at Coors Field.

Tough scheduling for both teams, but particularly for the Mets, as New York just played a pair in Chicago against the White Sox, and they will have to hurry home after this game tonight for a weekend set at Citi Field against Washington beginning tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, Colorado just ended a 2-7 road trip with a loss late yesterday afternoon in Boston, so while I see a bunch of Over trends on the stat sheet for both teams, I am counting on both being just a little fatigued and for the pitching to keep the hitting quiet in this late day contest.

Mets hurler Jeremy Hefner has been solid his last 3 trips to the rubber, going 1-1 while keeping his ERA just a tad over 2, while Colorado starter Tyler Chatwood looks like a keeper going 4-1 this year with a 2.22 ERA.

Both starters have pitched to Unders in 2 of their last 3 assignments, and the combination of the good pitching versus the tired bats will lead to an Under in tonight's Mets-Rockies makeup game from Coors Field.

New York-Colorado play it Low.

3* N.Y. METS-COLORADO UNDER

CRAIG DAVIS

Yep, I'm going right back to the NY Yankees as your free play based on the fact that it's a day game in the Bronx and the fact that New York still owns the Rangers despite last night's loss.

Speaking of last night... my 50-dime bust last night on the St. Louis Cardinals was sitting pretty in the 6th with Lance Lynn throwing a no-hitter and the Cardinals owning a 3-0 lead. Then the walk-fest began and Lynn fell apart to the tune of four earned runs and five walks.

St. Louis would fall behind 4-3 and not score again. Amazing!! I've had two straight nights of blown leads and need to find that win to get another streak going like in the NBA Playoffs.

As for the Yankees this afternoon, it's not so much that I like Phil Hughes more than I like Derek Holland, but it's more about the Yanks domination over the Rangers in recent memory at home and the fact that Texas won last night.

Despite the fact that Phil Hughes has a higher ERA at home than he does on the road, he owns a 2-1 career record vs. Texas with a 2.00 ERA in 18 innings pitched.

Holland, on the other hand, has a decent record and ERA this season and he pitches just as well on the road as he does at home... but it's hard to ignore his 0-5 career record vs. the Yankees including his 8.85 ERA. Yikes!!

Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.

1* N.Y. YANKEES

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Indians at Baltimore OriolesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Baltimore OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Orioles and Indians conclude a four-game series in Baltimore Thursday evening where Mike Gonzalez opposes Cory Kluber at Camden Yards. Gonzalez has loved home cooking this season where he is 6-0 in his team starts this season, as opposed to 2-5 away. On the flip side, Kluber's 4.46 road ERA is more than 1.5 runs per game worse than his 2.93 ERA this year. With Kluber winless (0-3) against the A. L. East this campaign, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore.

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Spain at ItalyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Italy head coach Cesare Prandelli may prefer an attacking style of play -- but expect him to have his club play a cautions defensive contest in this Semifinals elimination match. This aggressive striking strategy may have produced six goals in their last two games against Japan and Brazil -- but they also surrendered seven goals over that span. Now facing this Spain team that crushed them by a 4-0 margin to win the 2012 Euro championship, the Italians cannot keep up in a scoring fest with La Roja. Spain's goaltender Iker Casillas has allowed only one goal so far in his Confederations Cup three games. To compound matters for Italy, they will be without one of their key attackers with Mario Balotelli being out with a thigh injury. Expect a low-scoring game in this Euro Finals rematch. Take the Under.

Steve Janus

Baltimore Orioles -129

Baltimore is going to be highly motivated to get a split at home in the series after losing two of the first three to the Indians. With Miguel Gonzalez on the mound they have to like their chances. Baltimore is a perfect 6-0 this season when Gonzalez takes the mound and 10-2 over the last two seasons.

Gonzalez has done an excellent job of keeping the Orioles in the game. He's allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. In his only start against the Indians, he allowed just two earned runs over 6 and 2/3 innings in a 10-2 Orioles victory.

Even with last nights win the Indians are still 6-games under .500 on the road. Offensively the Indians come in averaging just 4.6 runs/game, which is a key number for this game. Gonzalez is 13-6 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game.

Thursday is travel day in the MLB and some teams enter these games differently. Baltimore has a strong history of playing well. They are 19-8 on Thursday over the last two seasons. Adding even more value is the fact that the Indians are a dismal 1-8 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +125 in 2013. There's clear value on Baltimore here as a small home favorite.

Art Aronson

Phillies vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 7½

Jonathan Pettibone (3-3, 4.14 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Pettibone left his Saturday start vs. the Mets early with a back injury, completing six innings and giving up one run off five hits with a walk (note that the rookie sports a poor 1-2, 6.84 ERA road record). The 22-year old will be opposed by the 29-year old Zack Greinke (4-2, 3.79 ERA) who is coming off his best outing of the year, giving up one run off four hits with a walk over eight innings in his team's eventual 6-1 victory over the Friars on Saturday night. Grienke has looked decent at times this season and extremely pedestrian in others. Six of these teams last ten in the series have indeed flown above the posted number and I'm expecting tonight's contest to follow suit; consider a second look at the "over" in this one.

Ray Monohan

Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are looking to even up their series with Cleavland on Thursday night. The Orioles were looking to get out of a funk that started over the weekend, not helped by the news that prospect Dylan Bundy is going under the knife. The O's are turning to Miguel Gonzalez to stop the bleeding. The O's greatest weakness is their lack of a true ace but Gonzalez is doing his best as a stand in. Batters are hitting only .232 against Gonzalez and the Cleveland lineup will see just how difficult he is to hit. In two previous starts against the Tribe he has only yielded but a few runs.

Jeffrey Brandes

Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +126

Pitchers:
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: JONATHAN PETTIBONE (R) ERA: 4.14 W/L: 3-3
LOS ANGELES DODGERS: ZACK GREINKE (R) ERA: 3.79 W/L: 4-2

The Dodgers are starting to heat up now and the Phillies, well the Phillies are just in a Phunk. Unless Cliff Lee is starting, the Phils right now are a "must check" bet against. JONATHAN PETTIBONE gets the call for the Phillies tonight after being scratched from his last start because of stiffness in his back. He's 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA in his last 3 starts and doesn't strike much fear in me here in this game.

ZACK GREINKE had his best outing of the season his last time out, allowing one run in eight innings with eight strikeouts. He's gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts. Greinke is 3-0 with 2.12 ERA in five starts at home.

Key Trends:
LA Dodgers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Philadelphia

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals

The Nationals hung on for a 3-2 win last night over Arizona and fit a nice system from the MLB Database which applies to home favorites off a 2 run win if both teams scored less than 4 runs in games where the total was 8 or less and is 8 or less for this game. These home teams have won 11 of the last 14 times in this system. Washington has won 8 of 11 as a home favorite in this range and has Strasburg pitching today. Strasburg as a 1.12 home era this season and has won both starts vs Arizona. He will oppose P. Corbin who has also pitched well this season but has not been quite as good as Strasburg. With Washington 8-1 on Thursday we will back them to take the final game of this series.

Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are 36-17 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter and face righty Matt Garza (4.25 ERA). Last place Chicago still struggles on offense, 18th in runs scored, 25ht in on base percentage. The Cubs are 31-69 in their last 100 road games. Milwaukee plays their best baseball at home and starter Wily Peralta is off a big win, tossing seven shutout innings, allowing two hits and four walks while striking out four in a 2-0 win over Atlanta on Friday night. The Cubs are 7-24 in the last 31 meetings, including 6-21 in the last 27 meetings in Milwaukee. Play the Brewers.

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Kansas City Royals at Minnesota TwinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Minnesota TwinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Returning to Target Field appears a good idea for the Twins, who lost 4 of 5 on a just-completed, short road trip to Cleveland and Miami but have won 10 of their last 14 in Minneapolis. Moreover, Minnesota has been scoring runs at home (30 in the last five as host), and should get some opportunites tonight if Kansas City Jeremy Guthrie, though toughion the Twins lately, is as ineffective as he was in his most-recent start when allowing 6 runs in just 2 2/3 IP last Friday against the White Sox. And besides, Guthrie has not been as dominating vs. the Twins as Minnesota starter Samuel Deduno was against the Royals on June 4 when allowing no runs and just four hits in 6 IP of an eventual 3-0 win at Kauffman Stradium. Also note the live-armed Deduno's 1.93 ERA in his last two starts at Target Field. Play Twins

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Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles DodgersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In Pettibone's last 3 starts, he has an 0-2 record with a staggering 6.91 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, while Greinke is 1-1 in his last 3 starts with a 3.60 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. The Phillies are 3-8 in their last 11 road games. The Dodgers are 7-3 in Greinke's last 10 starts. Play the Dodgers.

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Kansas City vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MinnesotaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City won for just the second time in seven games w/ a surprise 4-3 win vs Atlanta on Wednesday. Now they travel to Minnesota to face a Twins team whom they've beaten five of six meetings this season, but they are running into a pitcher that has had their number in two previous starts. Because of that and other reasons, I like the Twins at home in this one.
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Homefield advantage means a lot here, at least as far as I'm concerned. All six games played between these two American League Central Division teams this season have been in Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are not a particular formidable road team at just 17-20 for the year. The Twins are 19-17 at Target Field, averaging 4.6 runs per game. This will be Minnesota's first game back home since sweeping the White Sox here last week.
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Perhaps no player on the field will benefit more from the homefield advantage than Twins starter Sam Deduno, who carries a perfect 7-0 team start record in night games at Target Field since the start of last season. He has also won both home starts in 2013, posting a 1.93 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. In two career starts vs. Kansas City, one of them coming this year, he has a 0.73 ERA. Earlier in this year, he became the only Twins starter to defeat the Royals in 2013 by pitching six scoreless innings.

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Cleveland vs. BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a free play on the Under Thursday night in Baltimore as the Orioles and Indians wrap up a four-game set. Cleveland has taken two of the first three games, including 4-3 last night, and all three games have gone Under. Like I said, this one should too.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Corey Kluber - The Indians starter has pitched very well of late. He is a perfect 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.66 ERA. The entire Tribe starting rotation has pitched well the last three weeks. Kluber has done his part, allowing three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts.
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2. Miguel Gonzalez - For Baltimore, Gonzalez is tough to beat at home, as is obvious by a 10-2 TSR at Camden Yards dating back to last season (6-0 in 2013). The Under is 16-6 the last 22 times he has started on grass, and he also just made a quality start at Toronto in his most recent outing. Like Kluber, he's pitched very well of late with a 2.91 ERA his last three starts. He shined in his only career start vs. the Indians as he threw six-plus innings, giving up only two runs on seven hits.
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3. X-Factor - Cleveland has gone Under in four straight and seven of its last nine. As a team, they are batting below .240 the last three weeks.