Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas vs. NY YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rangers have split the first two games of their series in the Bronx, winning in a slugfest yesterday by a score of 8-5. Yankees starter Andy Pettitte was to blame for half of those runs, but the other four were charged to Joba Chamberlain and Shawn Kelley.
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They play the rubber match on Thursday afternoon, and we could be in for another high scoring affair here today. Phil Hughes gets the nod for the Yankees, and he hasn't been very sharp at home this season. He was torched for five runs on 10 hits over six innings in a home loss to the Dodgers his last time out. He's 1-4 with a 6.69 ERA in seven starts in the Bronx this year.
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Hughes has never been at his best in early games, since 2010 he's posted an ERA over 5.00 in day games, while registering an ERA below 4.00 at night. During that time he's only had one start versus Texas, and that didn't go well for him. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings, allowing four runs on five hits including a home run, getting tagged with a loss.
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The Rangers hand the ball to Derek Holland, who hasn't missed a lot of bats lately. Holland (5-4, 3.43 ERA) allowed four runs on four hits, while walking three over seven innings in a win over the Cardinals his last time out. Prior to that he allowed four runs on 10 hits, including a pair of home runs in a loss to Toronto.
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He's been really roughed up by the Bronx Bombers over the past few seasons, going 0-3 with an 8.56 ERA in five starts since 2010. Three of those games were played at Yankee Stadium. Given that he's winless in his last four starts, and hasn't really pitched well of late, it's likely his struggles in the Bronx will continue today.
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Texas at New York YankeesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New York YankeesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees have split the first two in this series, and the Wednesday matinee at the Stadium will decide who takes this series. The Rangers, despite the win last night, have struggled at the Stadium to a 2-9 mark in their last 11 here. Neither Texas starter Derek Holland, or Yankees starter Phil Hughes have been doing well over the last month or so, but the devil is in the details here. Hughes has a pedigree both at home and vs. the Rangers. Hughes is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA against Texas with a WHIP of 0.67 in four appearances, three of which were starts. The Yankees are impressive at home behind Hughes where they are 41-18 in his last 59 here. This is a good situation for New York and have value as a home dog. Play on New York.
JEFF BENTON
Thursday freebie is the Under in the Blue Jays-Red Sox series opener from Fenway Park.
Toronto has been playing them low, as they hit Beantown with Unders in each of their last 3 games, and 10 of their last 13 games played overall.
Chien-Ming Wang has been a pleasant surprise for the Jays, as the righty has worked 20-plus innings thus far and has an ERA just a bit over 2.
Jon Lester counters for a Boston team that held Under yesterday against the Rockies and have been Under the price now in 5 of their last 9 .
Lester has indeed struggled in recent outings, but I can see him regaining his former versus a Toronto team that he has thrown a one-hit shutout against earlier this year. He is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his 3 starts this season against the Jays.
The teams have played 3 of their last 4 Under the total this season, so look for the long weekend series opener to hold low tonight at Fenway.
4* TORONTO-BOSTON UNDER
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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WINNIPEG +170 over MontrealFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Anthony Calvillo and the Montreal Alouettes have represented the power in this league for years. When teams are building or preparing for the upcoming year, the goal has been to put together a team that can defeat the Als. The Argos did it last season and so did a few others, as the league has now caught up to them. Some are calling it an off-year, (Als went 11-7 last year) and expect them to rebound strong this season but we’re not so sure. Calvillo is 40-years old and Father Time forgives nobody. Additionally, the Als have an entire new coaching staff with no CFL experience and that’s a huge obstacle to overcome. Montreal also has a slew of new personnel and most of them are veterans or castoffs that have worn out their welcome elsewhere. This is an old team in a young man’s game and although the Als have plenty of experience, they have not played together and it would be of no surprise if they were a step slower than the other teams and a bit out of sync as well. The Alouettes defense is another area of concern, where they were torched constantly last season by every efficient offense in the CFL and it may be the same story this year.
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The Blue Bombers were torched in their two preseason games by a combined score of 76-6 and that has many believing this edition of the Bombers is no better off and maybe worse than a year ago. Don’t believe it. Winnipeg showed nothing in the preseason. They played mostly backups and had no desire to do anything but evaluate players on the bubble. Tim Burke took over the coaching duties eight games into the season a year ago and lost the first three but then Winnipeg closed with a 4-3 record under Burke. Burke’s track record as a defensive coordinator prior to the interim gig last year suggests he’s ready for the full-time challenge as well. The veteran coach overlooked Winnipeg’s vaunted “Swaggerville” defense in 2011 after three years as defensive coordinator in Montreal, helping the Alouettes to three straight Grey Cup appearances and two wins. This guy knows the CFL and he knows how to win. Winnipeg is much better than last season and if QB Buck Pierce remains healthy, they will be a tough out every single week. Winnipeg has a nice balance of offense and defense and they’re extremely well-coached (Burke brought back Casey Creehan as defensive coordinator and Creehan was in charge of Winnipeg’s defensive line during their impressive 2011 season). Opening up at home with a clean slate in their new stadium in front of a packed house, the Bombers offer up tremendous value here. Keep the points. Bombers outright.
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BALTIMORE -1½ +163 over ClevelandFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We’ve been strong supporters of Corey Kluber the entire season up to now because, as we suggested, he was an undervalued pitcher. With a 6-4 record and a 1.68 ERA over his past three starts, the value on Kluber is gone and now we’re going to sell high on him. Kluber is having a great year but there are some glaring negatives in his skill set that insist he’s not as good as the numbers say. We'll start with the good: he’s only walked 13 batters in 71 frames and he’s missing plenty of bats with 69 K’s. The strikeout rate isn't just from one start either, as he's struck out 8+ hitters four times this season. The problem is his hit rate is elevated and has been for three years. Kluber is squeezing out of a lot of jams and his pitch count gets up there very quickly. He’s only averaging 5.1 innings per start. And note that only 14% of batted balls are hit softly. So he's allowing a lot of hitters to square up on the ball. Kluber’s 87% strand rate over his past six starts is also unsustainable and it’s only a matter of time before we see this guy blow up for an extended period of time. The Orioles square up as well as any team in baseball and Kluber could be in for a rough one here.
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Miguel Gonzalez is the underpriced pitcher in this matchup. Gonzalez has quietly saw his skills soar in May and in June. His fastball velocity increased by nearly 1.0 mph from April to May and his swinging strike rate was an upper-tier 10.3%. Gonzalez offers up four quality offerings: a fastball anywhere from 89-94 MPH with an average of 91.2 MPH, a slider that he throws 11½% of the time, a curve 8.2%, a changeup 16.4% and a two seam FB that he throws 18% of the time. He’ll also throw any of them at any time, with or without the count in his favor. Gonzalez has a 0.89 WHIP over his last five starts, and a skill supported 3.75 ERA on the season. Lots of folks think that Miguel Gonzlez is all smoke and mirrors but they’re wrong. Truth is, Corey Kluber is serviceable but he’s the one that has been living a charmed life, not the opposite. The reward spotting 1½-runs is worth the risk.
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COLORADO -1 +131 over N.Y. MetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mets were at Coors earlier this year and were swept in a three-game set by scores of 11-3, 9-8, and 8-4. The Rockies have now defeated the Mets in seven straight games dating back to last year and this one isn’t likely to be any different. Furthermore, this is a make-up game for the Mets, who played a night game in Chicago yesterday and now have to play a 4:00 PM (local time) game here before returning home to host the Nationals starting tomorrow. It would be of no surprise to see the Mets field their “B” lineup here in this one-game trip to Colorado. Jeremy Hefner has strung together a decent year but he’s benefitted greatly from pitching half of his 14 starts at Citi Field. On the road, it’s a completely different tale for Hefner. On the road, Hefner’s ERA is 4.83 with a BAA of .281. He pitched one inning at Coors earlier in the year and we’re certain he hasn’t forgotten it because in that one inning he was taken yard twice. The Rockies' bats will be looking forward to being home, where they have an NL-best .286 BA and .814 OPS.
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Tyler Chatwood is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. In eight starts since taking over John Garland’s rotation spot, Chatwood has had one bad start and seven pure quality starts. That one poor start occurred in his first time out but since then, Chatwood has allowed two runs or fewer in seven straight starts. In four starts at Coors Field, he has not allowed a single HR and that’s due to his elite groundball rate of 60% on the year. Over his last five starts, Chatwood’s GB rate is 63%. Chatwood’s strikeout rate is improving (he struck out 18 batters in a recent 16-inning span) and his last four wins were by scores of 10-5, 5-0, 10-2 and 12-2. When he wins, he wins big and this is the perfect spot to extend that trend in.
Jimmy Boyd
Milwaukee Brewers -102
The Chicago Cubs have really struggled on the road this season. They have a .225 batting average and are scoring 3.3 runs per game. Their numbers get even worse when they are facing a division opponent with their batting average dropping to .212 and scoring a mere 2.9 runs per game. They are facing a Brewers team that has a .268 batting average at home and they are scoring 4.2 runs per game in those games.
When you compare the starting pitchers for these teams the Brewers will have another advantage. Garza has a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts compared to a 3.44 ERA from Peralta in his last three. Peralta has performed well against the Cubs this season posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.199 WHIP. His last outing against Chicago was a home start where he went 6.7 innings and gave up just 2 earned runs on 5 hits.
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Baltimore Orioles -128FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland's Kluber has won his last three starts, but I'm not sold. Before that, the Indians had lost 15 of 20 with Kluber on the mound. In addition, the Indians are 24-49 in their last 73 road games, 17-40 in their last 57 road games versus a right-handed starter, 6-18 in their last 24 versus the American League East division and 0-5 in Kluber's last 5 starts versus the AL East. It hasn't been wise to bet against the Orioles in Baltimore with Gonzalez on the mound. That's because they are 10-0 in his last 10 home starts. The O's fell yesterday but are 41-15 in their last 56 games following a loss. Take Baltimore.
Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Mets vs. ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockies just endured a miserable road trip that saw them win only twice, with both of those victories coming in Washington this past weekend. Now they limp home, but do find themselves in a favorable situation against a Mets club that didn't finish its game until late last night in Chicago, and will have to travel again once this one is done as they host the Nationals for a three-game set starting tomorrow night.
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To make matters worse for New York, they're expected to give do-everything third baseman David Wright a rare day off.
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The Mets have enjoyed a terrific road trip winning in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Chicago (against the White Sox). However, they're still a losing club on the highway at 17-20, and face a Rockies team that has played much better at home this season, going 23-17.
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Jeremy Hefner gets the call for the Mets. He managed to hold the Phillies to only two earned runs in six innings last time out, but was tagged for 10 hits, fortunate to get out of a couple of jams. The Mets have now won his last two starts, but I think that's about as much as we can expect from Hefner. Note that he owns an inflated 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season.
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Tyler Chatwood will counter for Colorado. He's been quietly humming along lately, allowing two earned runs or less in seven consecutive starts. Over Chatwood's last five outings, he's given up a grand total of only 23 hits and eight walks in 27 innings. Note that the Rockies have gone 3-1 in his four home starts to date. He faced the Mets once last season, tossing just three scoreless innings in a 3-1 Colorado victory. He's pitched 10 career innings against New York and has yet to allow an earned run.
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This is a make-up game from a series these two played right here in Colorado back in mid-April. The Rockies have taken the first three games and seven in a row in this series going back to last season. I look for them to continue their dominance today.
Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Royals / Twins Over 8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OK, looks like this is as good as it's going to get. If you have to play 9 there's no juice and a push as opposed to a loss if it lands on 9. First things' first yet again. It's warm in Minnesota and the ball travels better when it's not cold. But, there'a also a stiff breeze blowing out to left center (or thereabouts) alleged to be in play. If actually been a fan of Deduno off and on, but honestly, the Brett experiment seems to be paying dividends finally, so I suspect the Royals get their fare share here. Minnesota's stock is down, and perhaps somewhat rightfully so, losing in Miami. But, it's a big park down there and I really didn't expect the WOULD score a lot. What I do like here is that both Morneau and Doumit rested yesterday, meaning Doumit should catch tonight and Mauer ought to DH, but either way, they should both be in the lineup. And that's a good thing, because Guthrie has been brutalized by the Twins, so they should get THEIR share here as well. With the Twins having play a series against an NL team, they needed perhaps more arms from the pen than they might have otherwise, so their not as rested as we'd like back there, or I'd back them here. The Royals pen has been one of the best in baseball, but much better at home, and it's about NOW that matters, and they've got a 5.09 ERA over the last week. Just far too many ways to get to 9 here, and it's no Saberhagen versus Jim Kaat in this game.
Red Dog SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Angels / Tigers Over 8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The first two games of the series ended with scores of 14-8 and 7-4. These two have combined for 87 overs/65 unders this year. The Angels are hitting the ball well in Detroit led by Shuck, Trout, Pujols, Trumbo, Hamilton, Kendrick and Aybar while the Tigers have offensive players like Jackson, Hunter, Cabrera, Fielder, Martinez and Peralta. Even last night's #9 hitter (Pena) was hitting .297.
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Two veterans are on the mound but Fister's ERA is 6.62 in his last 3 starts while Weaver's ERA is 5.21 in that span. It does concern me that we are seeing an afternoon game (getaway day) but these two can score runs quickly.
Fezzik
Montreal / Winnipeg Under 50.5
When we think CFL we think "over" and that's what the Oddsmakers did here, setting this one in the 50s. Too high, defenses ahead of the offenses early in the year....look for a sluggish start for both teams. In the NFL home dogs go 'under' week1 in high total'd games, look for the same here.
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Washington Nationals -139FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We're getting Stephen Strasburg at a discount tonight as he and the Washington Nationals take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Rarely will you ever get Strasburg as this small of a home favorite.
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The discount comes because Strasburg has been unlucky this year to have just a 4-6 record despite posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.031 WHIP over 14 starts. The right-hander has been virtually untouchable at home, going 3-3 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.800 WHIP over six starts.
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Strasburg has faced Arizona twice in his career, going 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners over 11 innings while striking out 13 in those two starts with Washington going 2-0.
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The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Arizona is 1-6 in its last 7 games as an underdog. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Washington is 36-15 in its last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Nationals Thursday.
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Thursday will be the Mets and Rockies to stay Under the total in their make up game today at Coors Field.
Tough scheduling for both teams, but particularly for the Mets, as New York just played a pair in Chicago against the White Sox, and they will have to hurry home after this game tonight for a weekend set at Citi Field against Washington beginning tomorrow night.
Meanwhile, Colorado just ended a 2-7 road trip with a loss late yesterday afternoon in Boston, so while I see a bunch of Over trends on the stat sheet for both teams, I am counting on both being just a little fatigued and for the pitching to keep the hitting quiet in this late day contest.
Mets hurler Jeremy Hefner has been solid his last 3 trips to the rubber, going 1-1 while keeping his ERA just a tad over 2, while Colorado starter Tyler Chatwood looks like a keeper going 4-1 this year with a 2.22 ERA.
Both starters have pitched to Unders in 2 of their last 3 assignments, and the combination of the good pitching versus the tired bats will lead to an Under in tonight's Mets-Rockies makeup game from Coors Field.
New York-Colorado play it Low.
3♦ N.Y. METS-COLORADO UNDER
Rob VenoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago at MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Difficult to play any game under the total at Miller Park but the circumstances here are ideal for a low scoring game. Day game after a night game on get away day is always a nice preface for an under but the starting pitchers should be the overwhelming forces here. Chicago’s Matt Garza is now in the thick of his audition for playoff contending teams as his last two starts suggest he’s well on his way back to form. His confidence level is high which is key for the often emotional RH and according to catcher Dioner Navarro, "his last couple starts, his fastball command has been off the charts, and that's the key for anybody." Versus the light hitting New York Mets and Houston, Garza has strung together 15 innings of seven hit, one run baseball in which his WHIP is 0.73 and ERA is 0.60. Just as impressive is the ease in which Garza has gotten through innings in those starts, averaging just 13.67 pitches per frame. His 13-4 K-BB totals in those starts create a ratio that can be very successful for Garza. Even if injured OF Carlos Gomez returns for Milwaukee, they’re likely to have a difficult time with the Cubs RH who has gone 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA against them in his last five tries. The Brewers counter with hard throwing Wily Peralta who is showing signs lately of being the force in the rotation Milwaukee believes he can be. His last start was a seven inning, 2 hit, shutout gem against the lefty dominated-fastball hitting Braves. His last five starts have consisted of three quality starts and his ERA and WHIP have been significantly better. With the Milwaukee bullpen currently putting together a strong month (1.11 WHI, 2.68 ERA, 14 H+S) Peralta should have solid back end support. Four of his last five starts have gone under as have Garza’s most recent pair.
Teddy Covers
Cleveland at Baltimore
Play: Cleveland
The Indians have been a streaky team all year, and they’re streaking in a positive direction right now. They went 18-4 from late April through mid-May, but followed that up with a miserable 4-17 stretch. Now the Tribe have turned that around, 10-4 in their last 14 ballgames, including four straight series wins and six wins at an underdog price during that span. Meanwhile, the Orioles are slumping, losers of five of their last six. And it’s surely worth noting that the vast majority of profits that Baltimore has earned this year have come in the road underdog role, not the home favorite’s role.
Cleveland’s Corey Kluber has notched the win in each of his last three starts, allowing only four runs in 21.2 innings during that span. His control has been masterful: 69 strikeouts compared to only 13 walks. And with a .327 BABIP and a 2.98 xFIP, the advanced metric numbers clearly show that Kluber is more than capable of continuing his success as the season progresses.
Baltimore’s Miguel Gonzalez, on the other hand, is showing real regression potential, with an xFIP more than a half run higher than his ERA and an unsustainably low BABIP. And the Orioles aggregate bullpen numbers have gotten worse as the season has progressed; a big reason why they are .500 in one run games this year, in sharp contrast to their remarkable 29-9 record in one run games last season. I’ll take the plus price return on investment with the underdog in a game that should be much closer to pick ‘em!